Cub prospects in the news

[sneakypower]

So why should I discount his age now?

because he's never shown any true promise

 

he can't field, is bound for first, is walks-averse, is slow, and has middling power despite a relatively full frame

 

why are we all excited about a guy with the upside to be a latter-day Garrett Atkins??

[SouthSideRyan]

Who said we should be excited about him? There's a middle ground between being excited about somebody and calling them a non-prospect.

[davearm2]

Who said we should be excited about him? There's a middle ground between being excited about somebody and calling them a non-prospect.

If you agree that we should not be excited about the guy, then the rest is just semantics, and that middle ground you mention is really not all that meaningful.

 

The reason to discount his age is because he has done very little to improve upon the weaknesses that folks identified at the time he was drafted. He still doesn't walk. He still can't run much or play defense. He still gets himself out swinging at pitcher's pitches. When and why are we expecting these flaws to get fixed, when there have been no real signs of progress in 3+ years?

[videographer]

I found this story on Wes Darvill at the Boise Hawks website:

 

http://www.idahopress.com/sports/bigger-better-darvill/article_53ed7c9c-a866-11e0-aeaf-001cc4c002e0.html

[SouthSideRyan]

Who said we should be excited about him? There's a middle ground between being excited about somebody and calling them a non-prospect.

If you agree that we should not be excited about the guy, then the rest is just semantics, and that middle ground you mention is really not all that meaningful.

 

The reason to discount his age is because he has done very little to improve upon the weaknesses that folks identified at the time he was drafted. He still doesn't walk. He still can't run much or play defense. He still gets himself out swinging at pitcher's pitches. When and why are we expecting these flaws to get fixed, when there have been no real signs of progress in 3+ years?

 

So how many players in our system would you consider "prospects?" You act like he's playing the same level of competition every year putting up the same numbers. He's put up mediocre numbers at a young age every stop along the way. He's not a top prospect, but being average at AA at the age of 21 isn't somebody you write off.

[Guest]

Exactly. Is Vitters a top prospect at this point? No. Is he likely to reach his potential, or even a bit below his potential? Doesn't look that way. Can he still be an asset to a MLB team? Yes. Does he still have time on his side? Yes. Is he a "non-prospect" in the Ryan Harvey circa 2008 sense? No. But Keith Law got what he wanted out of it, people are chattering about his opinions simply because he goes about his opinions in a Whitlockian way.

[davell]

Vitters is basically a lightning rod at this point. People love to throw out the "bust" card and it's definitely likely(as TT just said) that he doesn't live up to his potential. That said, if you take his 3rd overall pick status away, my guess is most teams wouldn't mind having someone in their system that's done what he's done to this point either. They might not be thinking he's a long term answer at a corner spot for them, but it definitely doesn't mean he's not a potential major leaguer who contributes a great deal either.

 

 

I see where Law is coming from kind of.......He's not sniffing any top 100 lists or anything like that, but my guess is he'd be a top 10 prospect in just about every system(25 teams or so anyway) around.......Is that disappointing? Yeah, in many ways it is. But, I don't see how you right off a guy who's just 21 either, considering he's in AA. If he were stuck in Boise or Peoria, then sure. I wish he'd go on a nice hitting streak where he goes 15-30 or something like that, just so we could see what these "experts" would say then. His average would probably be over .300 by then and my guess is we'd hear complete silence honestly.......Just waiting til he slumps again to make another statement basically.......

[Little Slide Rooter]

Really what it comes down to is that hes not hurting us by being there, hes not blocking anyone by any means, so theres no reason not to let him keep doing what hes doing, and hopefully make some improvements. And maybe some 1 on 1 time with out 3 million dollar hitting guru could also help him out a bit.

[jersey cubs fan]

Vitters is basically a lightning rod at this point. People love to throw out the "bust" card and it's definitely likely(as TT just said) that he doesn't live up to his potential. That said, if you take his 3rd overall pick status away, my guess is most teams wouldn't mind having someone in their system that's done what he's done to this point either. They might not be thinking he's a long term answer at a corner spot for them, but it definitely doesn't mean he's not a potential major leaguer who contributes a great deal either.

 

 

I see where Law is coming from kind of.......He's not sniffing any top 100 lists or anything like that, but my guess is he'd be a top 10 prospect in just about every system(25 teams or so anyway) around.......Is that disappointing? Yeah, in many ways it is. But, I don't see how you right off a guy who's just 21 either, considering he's in AA. If he were stuck in Boise or Peoria, then sure. I wish he'd go on a nice hitting streak where he goes 15-30 or something like that, just so we could see what these "experts" would say then. His average would probably be over .300 by then and my guess is we'd hear complete silence honestly.......Just waiting til he slumps again to make another statement basically.......

 

Sure, other teams would want to have a guy like him, if he was already somebody they previously acquired and paid for. They aren't going to trade for him though, unless it's swapping disappointing players.

 

I'm not sure what you mean by great deal, but I find it extremely unlikely that he's capable of contributing it at the major league level. He can't play a need position in the field, and he can't hit with an impact. He could be a role player, but that's about it - and it's hardly a guarantee that even happens.

 

At this point he's still high risk, but with low reward. I can't imagine he'd make 25 top 10 lists. Maybe half the teams would have him there, but the reverse of your early statement is true. Take away his draft status and he's not on anybody's radar. The best thing he has going for him is that 4 years ago, people thought highly of his upside potential.

[Guest]

That's far from the best thing he's got going for him at this point. He has 26 XBH and 26 K. Not quite as good a ratio as earlier in the year, but I bet you'll have a hard time finding 10-15 guys in all of AA and AAA that can put up that combination of power & contact.

[sneakypower]

he has a career 4.2% BB rate! and he hasn't even reached the leagues where guys throw strikes yet!

 

Exactly. Is Vitters a top prospect at this point? No. Is he likely to reach his potential, or even a bit below his potential? Doesn't look that way. Can he still be an asset to a MLB team? Yes. Does he still have time on his side? Yes. Is he a "non-prospect" in the Ryan Harvey circa 2008 sense? No. But Keith Law got what he wanted out of it, people are chattering about his opinions simply because he goes about his opinions in a Whitlockian way.

how? i'd like for you to describe for me a potential scenario where this could happen, where a guy with such historically abysmal plate discipline and no defensive ability has went on to forge for himself a productive MLB career, or even just assert himself as a starting-caliber player for more than just a couple seasons

 

if we allow ourselves to be the least bit objective about things, we all realize he's a lost cause, but i'm fine if people want to wait until it's undoubtedly official to declare it; probably the more tactful thing

[Guest]

he has a career 4.2% BB rate! and he hasn't even reached the leagues where guys throw strikes yet!

 

Exactly. Is Vitters a top prospect at this point? No. Is he likely to reach his potential, or even a bit below his potential? Doesn't look that way. Can he still be an asset to a MLB team? Yes. Does he still have time on his side? Yes. Is he a "non-prospect" in the Ryan Harvey circa 2008 sense? No. But Keith Law got what he wanted out of it, people are chattering about his opinions simply because he goes about his opinions in a Whitlockian way.

how? i'd like for you to describe for me a potential scenario where this could happen, where a guy with such historically abysmal plate discipline and no defensive ability has went on to forge for himself a productive MLB career, or even just assert himself as a starting-caliber player for more than just a couple seasons

 

if we allow ourselves to be the least bit objective about things, we all realize he's a lost cause, but i'm fine if people want to wait until it's undoubtedly official to declare it; probably the more tactful thing

Pudge has a walk rate around there and he'll be in the HOF.

 

Also...

 

Dawson drew 446 unintentional walks in 10769 PA's.

 

 

Now...both those guys had defensive value. But they both are HOF players.

[KingCubsFan]

That's far from the best thing he's got going for him at this point. He has 26 XBH and 26 K. Not quite as good a ratio as earlier in the year, but I bet you'll have a hard time finding 10-15 guys in all of AA and AAA that can put up that combination of power & contact.

2006 Juan Pierre (a favorite to us all): 48 XBH, 27 K. And he used to do this regularly in his "prime."

[Guest]

That's far from the best thing he's got going for him at this point. He has 26 XBH and 26 K. Not quite as good a ratio as earlier in the year, but I bet you'll have a hard time finding 10-15 guys in all of AA and AAA that can put up that combination of power & contact.

2006 Juan Pierre (a favorite to us all): 48 XBH, 27 K. And he used to do this regularly in his "prime."

Is 2006 Juan Pierre in AA or AAA this year?

 

I understand your point, but I hope you understand mine, as well. Juan Pierre wasn't a threat to develop a legit power game. Vitters is very capable of doing so. If he can maintain that contact rate and fulfill his power potential, he'll have a starting role in the game.

[SouthSideRyan]

how? i'd like for you to describe for me a potential scenario where this could happen, where a guy with such historically abysmal plate discipline and no defensive ability has went on to forge for himself a productive MLB career, or even just assert himself as a starting-caliber player for more than just a couple seasons

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/anderga01.shtml

[jersey cubs fan]

That's far from the best thing he's got going for him at this point. He has 26 XBH and 26 K. Not quite as good a ratio as earlier in the year, but I bet you'll have a hard time finding 10-15 guys in all of AA and AAA that can put up that combination of power & contact.

 

In terms of how he is perceived and ranked it absolutely is the best thing going for him. The point was made that if he wasn't a 3rd overall pick, people wouldn't hate him as much and that somehow he'd show up on 25 other teams top 10 lists. But if he wasn't a 3rd overall pick, he would not be considered much of anything at this point. It cuts both ways.

[sneakypower]

how? i'd like for you to describe for me a potential scenario where this could happen, where a guy with such historically abysmal plate discipline and no defensive ability has went on to forge for himself a productive MLB career, or even just assert himself as a starting-caliber player for more than just a couple seasons

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/anderga01.shtml

yeah, i had thought about him, but what does it stay when your perfect world outcome wasn't even an above average hitter? you know what a 100 wRC+ first baseman is called? Garrett Jones, Brett Wallace, Lyle Overbay

[scarey]

how? i'd like for you to describe for me a potential scenario where this could happen, where a guy with such historically abysmal plate discipline and no defensive ability has went on to forge for himself a productive MLB career, or even just assert himself as a starting-caliber player for more than just a couple seasons

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/anderga01.shtml

 

I know he has a slightly better walk rate, but we have a guy like this on the current team in Soriano.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Just out of curiosity, why are these guys lining up to [expletive] on Vitters, but the next years high school phenom, Tim Beckham, who is only a half year younger than Vitters and put up worse minor league career numbers to date not only get a pass but hes on the Futures Team?

[scarey]

Just out of curiosity, why are these guys lining up to [expletive] on Vitters, but the next years high school phenom, Tim Beckham, who is only a half year younger than Vitters and put up worse minor league career numbers to date not only get a pass but hes on the Futures Team?

 

To be fair, Vitters has been given passes in the past. I'm not sure if his spurts of awesomeness has earned him those passes, but the Vitters critics really only started popping up near the end of last season.

[sneakypower]

even Soriano somehow sported a 50% higher walk than Vitters in the minors, though he was more old for his levels

[SouthSideRyan]

how? i'd like for you to describe for me a potential scenario where this could happen, where a guy with such historically abysmal plate discipline and no defensive ability has went on to forge for himself a productive MLB career, or even just assert himself as a starting-caliber player for more than just a couple seasons

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/anderga01.shtml

 

I know he has a slightly better walk rate, but we have a guy like this on the current team in Soriano.

 

That was my second thought, but I figured I'd stay away from starting up that conversation. But...now that it's started, Soriano didn't stick in the majors til he was 25. Vitters is a little more than 3 years away from his 25th birthday.

[jersey cubs fan]

how? i'd like for you to describe for me a potential scenario where this could happen, where a guy with such historically abysmal plate discipline and no defensive ability has went on to forge for himself a productive MLB career, or even just assert himself as a starting-caliber player for more than just a couple seasons

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/anderga01.shtml

 

I know he has a slightly better walk rate, but we have a guy like this on the current team in Soriano.

 

Soriano had more power and speed, and came up playing a premier position. It's possible to do great things without a great walk rate, but what are Vitters' great things to make up for it?

[SouthSideRyan]

how? i'd like for you to describe for me a potential scenario where this could happen, where a guy with such historically abysmal plate discipline and no defensive ability has went on to forge for himself a productive MLB career, or even just assert himself as a starting-caliber player for more than just a couple seasons

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/anderga01.shtml

 

I know he has a slightly better walk rate, but we have a guy like this on the current team in Soriano.

 

Soriano had more power and speed, and came up playing a premier position. It's possible to do great things without a great walk rate, but what are Vitters' great things to make up for it?

 

Soriano had a .180 ISO in the minors at the ages of 23 and 24. Vitters has a .160 ISO through the age of 21. The fact that he was playing 2B didn't help him when he was giving back any positional value by being terrible there.

[sneakypower]

granted i don't know what the scouting reports were like for Soriano, but has any scout ever suggested Vitters be capable of 40 2B - 40 HR seasons? it's not a rhetorical question either, i'm just not familiar with any; it's always been "most likely scenario: Michael Cuddyer", or "more physical Howie Kendrick"

 

it probably sounds like my argument keeps changing, if so i guess i'm not explaining my hate well enough; it's a cumulation of everything that's made me lose all hope for him as a prospect