Cub prospects in the news

[Outshined_One]

I didnt know where else to post this, but I was looking at the Cubs minor league rosters, and I dont know how concrete these are, but they have Chris Carpenter in AA. This doesnt seem right, considering hes argeuably the most major league ready of our minor league pitchers. Certainly over 47 year old JR Mathes, who they may as well convert to a loogy, give a September cup of coffee, and cut the chord.

 

The rosters on MiLB are mostly from last season, I believe. They're not exactly reliable until just before opening day for the minor league season.

[Guest]

Ead (Chicago): Encouraged by Josh Vitters so far? Or is it too soon to tell?

 

Jim Callis: Too few games to read much into. But I did find myself looking at his stats the other day and think that maybe he is on the way to the breakout year the Cubs swear is coming in 2011.

 

Eddie (Rice Lake): Jim, thanks for the chat. I always get concerned when I see college hitters like Bryce Brentz, Matt Szczur and Brett Eibner (before he was hurt) start at Low A. It seems like it says they're far less polished than they should be. Is that an issue for you? Is it an issue if they finish the season at Low A?

 

Jim Callis: Not an issue. Brentz didn't play well in his pro debut, and I'd rather let him get off to a great start. Szczur has less baseball experience than most college players, given his football background. Eibner is just making his pro debut. It would be an issue if they spend an entire year in low Class A and put up mediocre numbers.

[nick23]

From BP:

batts40 (IL): How optimistic should we be about Vitters' hot start?

 

Jason Parks: Well, its better than a bad start, so at least its something to be optimistic about. Vitters has bat speed that can't be taught, so if he can work himself into more favorable hitting situations and avoid bailing pitchers out, his hit tool could reach its potential. I still like Vitters, and the start is promising, but I'm curious to see how he adjusts after pitchers start adjusting to him.

[BeerHere]

Brett Jackson made the BA Hot Sheet

No. 13 BRETT JACKSON, CF CUBS

Team: Double-A Tennessee (Southern)

Age: 22

Why He's Here: .480/.563/.720 (12-for-25), 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 7 RBIs, 6 BB, 6 SO, 4-for-5 SB

The Scoop: Jackson's well-rounded skill set helps him do a bit of everything. The Cubs' No. 1 prospect has a solid swing, works the count and can drive the ball, while his plus speed is a weapon on the basepaths and in the outfield. He's been an on-base machine early for Tennessee, including a 3-for-3 showing with a walk to help chase Rays lefty Matt Moore from the game early on Wednesday.

 

 

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2011/2611586.html

[Guest]

DrewBoke (IL): What's the scouting report on Austin Kirk? He looks like he has great stuff with poor inconsistency.

 

Jim Callis: I haven't talked to anyone about him this year, but in the past he's had a high-80s fastball with a promising curveball. If he can command that curve, he'll be tough in the Midwest League.

 

KS (Chicago): When Matt Sczcur signed his contract with the Cubs in January you said if he were available in this draft he would be a first round pick. Now that we have seen the amount of depth in this draft do you still hold this opinion? Thanks

 

Jim Callis: This draft is loaded. But my point was is Szczur played as well this spring as he did last summer in his pro debut (translate his 347/414/465 line to college and what do you get?), he would have been a first-round pick with his combination of outstanding athleticism and performance. That kind of season and those kind of tools would put him in Mikie Mahtook territory somewhere in the middle of the round.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2011/2611609.html

[craig]

DrewBoke (IL): What's the scouting report on Austin Kirk? He looks like he has great stuff with poor inconsistency.

 

Jim Callis: I haven't talked to anyone about him this year, but in the past he's had a high-80s fastball with a promising curveball. If he can command that curve, he'll be tough in the Midwest League.

 

KS (Chicago): When Matt Sczcur signed his contract with the Cubs in January you said if he were available in this draft he would be a first round pick. Now that we have seen the amount of depth in this draft do you still hold this opinion? Thanks

 

Jim Callis: This draft is loaded. But my point was is Szczur played as well this spring as he did last summer in his pro debut (translate his 347/414/465 line to college and what do you get?), he would have been a first-round pick with his combination of outstanding athleticism and performance. That kind of season and those kind of tools would put him in Mikie Mahtook territory somewhere in the middle of the round.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2011/2611609.html

 

Unfortunately to date Szczur has a .646 OPS at Peoria this year and had a .608 OPS at Peoria last summer in a brief showcase.

 

Callis is basing his grade on his Boise numbers last year, but the longer he goes without translating his Boise hitting to Peoria, the more the Boise stats will be forgotten and his status could decline.

 

I'd sure like to see him get cooking offensively.

[BeerHere]

Jackson makes the BA Hot Sheet again at #6 and Ha gets a mention as well. I didn't know he was just 20.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2011/2611613.html

 

No. 6 BRETT JACKSON, CF CUBS

Team: Double-A Tennessee (Southern)

Age: 22

Why He's Here: .364/.517/.864 (8-for-22), 8 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 4 RBIs, 6 BB, 5 SO, 2-for-3 SB

The Scoop: Southern League pitchers haven't figured out how to keep Jackson off the basepaths. With a .426/.541/.787 slash line, Jackson is third in the minors in OBP and fifth in OPS, reaching base in all 14 games he's played in so far. His most recent stretch includes an effort on Wednesday in which he fell a single short of the cycle (though he did reach first base once by walking), then followed that yesterday with a pair of extra-base hits. The first of those extra-base hits was a fastball he roped down the first base line for a double, the second a fastball on the outer half that he dropped the bat head on to take the other way for a home run over the left-field fence.

 

"Brett brings a lot to the game," Smokies manager Brian Harper said. "He hustles, he plays hard, he plays good defense and he's got power. He does a lot of good things. He's fun to watch."

On Ha:

Cubs CF Jae-Hoon Ha has caught scouts' eyes in the Florida State League with eye-popping numbers to start the season. He is hitting .403/.406/.645 through 14 games with a pair of home runs. He has not drawn a walk yet and is only 2-for-7 on stolen base attempts, but manager Buddy Bailey is pleased with the 20-year old's aggressive approach. "He's got one gait and it's always aggressive," Bailey said. "To me, it's the perfect thing for a young player. Players learn when they're aggressive."

[Guest]

DrewBoke (IL): Best case scenario for Brett Jackson, ..... a healthy Grady Sizemore?

 

Matthew Eddy: I really Cubs Double-A CF Brett Jackson's well rounded game, but I think a Sizemore-in-his-prime comp is a bridge too far. I'm tempted to say that Jackson could be a Curtis Granderson type as a lefty hitter who's athleticism and defensive range might be a bit undersold. Granderson had similar over-the-fence power at Jackson's age. Oh, and the strikeouts are always going to be part of the package.

 

Poolie (Big Smoke): I'm in a keeper league and I can only keep one hitter and one position player of these 4 ultra picks. Who do I keep? Tony Sanchez, Brett Jackson, Jameson Taillon and Casey Kelly. I'm not worried about a timeline, just who will be of more value for me.

 

Matthew Eddy: For me, in order of highest ceiling: Taillon, Sanchez, Jackson, Kelly. Injury caveats for the pitchers, of course. That's probably how they ranked in the Top 100, I'm not sure.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1303488693

[TruffleShuffle]

Cubs CF Jae-Hoon Ha has caught scouts' eyes in the Florida State League with eye-popping numbers to start the season. He is hitting .403/.406/.645 through 14 games with a pair of home runs. He has not drawn a walk yet and is only 2-for-7 on stolen base attempts, but manager Buddy Bailey is pleased with the 20-year old's aggressive approach. "He's got one gait and it's always aggressive," Bailey said. "To me, it's the perfect thing for a young player. Players learn when they're aggressive."

 

players can also learn when they draw a walk.

[TruffleShuffle]

this is from a pre-season BP article and talks about some of the weaknesses of vitters:

 

When I look at Vitters, I see crazy bat speed and excellent strength, but I also see an impatient hitter, closer to a young Dominican than a 21-year-old former top-three pick. I get the fact that he loves to get his bat in the zone and test his ability to touch anything thrown. That’s an awesome party trick. But making contact on bad balls is a quick ticket out of advanced baseball, and without a better all-around approach, Vitters might just find himself at the peak of his developmental arc.

 

What could go right in 2011 is really about putting the tools together with a more mature approach. Vitters is a gifted hitter, perhaps owner of one of the best raw hit tools in the minors. But his offensive attributes have been suppressed by his approach, and unless that takes a turn in ’11, it could be all she wrote, at least as far as his prospect status is concerned. Now, if Vitters can learn to lay off bad balls (remember: It’s not that he swings and misses, it's that he swings and connects, which leads to poor contact and poor strength utilization), he can work himself into more favorable counts and situations. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for an ultra-aggressive hitter to find a more moderate approach to hitting, but it's certainly not a given that these intrinsic habits can be refined. Personally, I think Vitters will show more maturity at the plate in 2011 and work himself back into Chicago’s plans for the future. While I don’t think he will become the star his draft status suggests is possible, I do think his offensive attributes can eventually find a home at the highest level. Dream on that.

[CubsWin]

this is from a pre-season BP article and talks about some of the weaknesses of vitters:

 

When I look at Vitters, I see crazy bat speed and excellent strength, but I also see an impatient hitter, closer to a young Dominican than a 21-year-old former top-three pick. I get the fact that he loves to get his bat in the zone and test his ability to touch anything thrown. That’s an awesome party trick. But making contact on bad balls is a quick ticket out of advanced baseball, and without a better all-around approach, Vitters might just find himself at the peak of his developmental arc.

 

What could go right in 2011 is really about putting the tools together with a more mature approach. Vitters is a gifted hitter, perhaps owner of one of the best raw hit tools in the minors. But his offensive attributes have been suppressed by his approach, and unless that takes a turn in ’11, it could be all she wrote, at least as far as his prospect status is concerned. Now, if Vitters can learn to lay off bad balls (remember: It’s not that he swings and misses, it's that he swings and connects, which leads to poor contact and poor strength utilization), he can work himself into more favorable counts and situations. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for an ultra-aggressive hitter to find a more moderate approach to hitting, but it's certainly not a given that these intrinsic habits can be refined. Personally, I think Vitters will show more maturity at the plate in 2011 and work himself back into Chicago’s plans for the future. While I don’t think he will become the star his draft status suggests is possible, I do think his offensive attributes can eventually find a home at the highest level. Dream on that.

I love this analysis. Very smart. Seems dead on. And clearly, to me at least, Vitters would find it easier to learn to layoff those pitchers pitches if the talent throwing to him was better, thus his rather hasty promotion to AA. Now let's hope he can adjust. Given his difficulty in doing so thus far, I feel the chances of him doing so successfully are less than 50%, but if he does start making pitchers give him something to hit, he can be real good.

[Guest]

Robert Whitenack, RHP, Cubs (Double-A Tennessee): 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K

Whitenack entered the year with very little fanfare, but he's generating attention after striking out 25 while walking just one in four Florida State League starts and then delivering six shutout innings in his Double-A debut yesterday. An eighth-round pick in 2009 who had an ERA near five for Low-A Peoria last year, Whitenack's doesn't throw especially hard, but his average-velocity fastball plays up due to the downhill plane created by his 6-foot-5 frame as well as the heavy sink he gets on the pitch, while he's always he a good slow curveball to go with it. His ceiling is as a back-end starter, but that's a massive improvement from where he was heading into the year as little more than an organizational arm.

 

Jae-Hoon Ha, OF, Cubs (High-A Daytona): 2-for-5, R, RBI, BB. First walk in 18 games gives him .370/.381/.593 batting line; plus-plus arm recording sixth assist of the year last night and has 25 in 174 outfield games.

 

Matt Szczur, OF, Cubs (Low-A Peoria): 3-for-4, 2B, BB, K. Three straight multi-hit games raise averages to .310/.385/.379; scouts see a slashy swing with little power, and he's yet to really use his speed with just one stolen base.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13738

[pitchcs]

Is Szczur's ceiling something like Shane Victorino?

[videographer]

Robert Whitenack, RHP, Cubs (Double-A Tennessee): 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K

Whitenack entered the year with very little fanfare, but he's generating attention after striking out 25 while walking just one in four Florida State League starts and then delivering six shutout innings in his Double-A debut yesterday. An eighth-round pick in 2009 who had an ERA near five for Low-A Peoria last year, Whitenack's doesn't throw especially hard, but his average-velocity fastball plays up due to the downhill plane created by his 6-foot-5 frame as well as the heavy sink he gets on the pitch, while he's always he a good slow curveball to go with it. His ceiling is as a back-end starter, but that's a massive improvement from where he was heading into the year as little more than an organizational arm.

 

Okay, I am going to stretch a comparison, but I think it has some value. Brandon Webb was an 8th round pick in 2000. His scouting report - high 80s FB with heavy sink, throws strikes, 4th or 5th rotation starter - was very similar to Whitenack, also an 8th round pick. I am not saying that Whitenack's ceiling is Webb, but he is the same kind of pitcher that can be successful in the MLs. Whitenack reminds me of the pitchers from decades past when movement and the 2-seamer was stressed over the 4-seamer and velo.

 

I saw Whitenack pitch last year at Peoria and was unimpressed with his stuff. Yet, he mowed the opposition down. With a pitcher like Whitenack, the best way to measure his prospect status is marking his results over time and level of competition rather than relying on reports of his raw stuff. I am starting to believe that he will be a factor in Chicago at some point in his future.

 

I remember BA's Top 10 Cub's prospect ranking of Greg Maddux his last year in the minors - 5th. He had enormous success at every level he pitched (along with Jamie Moyer), but BA couldn't get past his slight build and slightly above average FB to rank him any higher. I can't remember the first four prospects on the list, but I believe Drew Hall was the apple of BA's eye. My point in bringing up Maddux is that sometimes results play up better than projections. Whitenack may never appear in BA's top 10 list for Cub prospects before he pitches in Wrigley - which might be this year.

 

I don't know how to project Whitenack's future, but to use an Ornery Fleita euphemism, "He will tell us when he's ready" or more precise, he will show us what his ceiling is.

[craig]

Those are good points, video. Fleita said he's throwing 91-94. I'm not sure why a guy with a 91-94 sinker is an undertalented back-end guy. A 91-94 sinker could be way better fastball than what most major-league starters work with. I don't think there's any question but that a 91 sinker would be more useful than a 95 40seamer.

 

The other thing is control. Scouts naturally focus on stuff, and kind of rank guys as front end, middle end, or back end prospects based on their raw stuff.

 

But we all know that not everybody has the same command, and superior command can trump stuff routinely.

 

If Whitenack combines a 91-mph sinker with excellent command, I think that provides the potential to be better than a mediocre rotation-filler. We'll see of course, and obviously I'm just an optimistic fan. But a lot of the runs a pitcher allows come not on their good stuff but on mistakes, and some guys who make mistakes more rarely have good success without exceptional velocity.

[Guest]

Those are good points, video. Fleita said he's throwing 91-94. I'm not sure why a guy with a 91-94 sinker is an undertalented back-end guy. A 91-94 sinker could be way better fastball than what most major-league starters work with. I don't think there's any question but that a 91 sinker would be more useful than a 95 40seamer.

 

The other thing is control. Scouts naturally focus on stuff, and kind of rank guys as front end, middle end, or back end prospects based on their raw stuff.

 

But we all know that not everybody has the same command, and superior command can trump stuff routinely.

 

If Whitenack combines a 91-mph sinker with excellent command, I think that provides the potential to be better than a mediocre rotation-filler. We'll see of course, and obviously I'm just an optimistic fan. But a lot of the runs a pitcher allows come not on their good stuff but on mistakes, and some guys who make mistakes more rarely have good success without exceptional velocity.

 

BA and BP are probably basing their back of the rotation assessments on his 88-92 velocity from last season. Not sure it's safe to trust Oneri when he says Whitenack is at 94 but Arizona Phil sure felt there was an improvement in Whitenack's stuff.

[wekim81]

and in the end, who gives a [expletive] what some hack at BP "thinks" his ceiling is? If he's dealing he's dealing and just because Goldstein (who i dont think has ever come up with an original idea) thinks he is a back end guy doesnt mean its automatically so.

 

Go Whitenack!

[Guest]

No Cubs made BA's Prospect Hot Sheet though Hak-Ju Lee and Brandon Guyer made it. And, from the Not-So-Hot List:

 

• Michael Burgess, RF, Cubs. Burgess, a part of the Tom Gorzelanny trade, has had a rough debut with his new club. This week, Burgess went just 1-for-18 with high Class A Daytona and is hitting .200/.243/.514 overall this season. Burgess has continued to display his prodigious power this season, hitting six home runs, but he has already struck out 23 times with just four walks. He struck out eight times this week and his lone hit was a single. He has struggled in parts of three previous seasons at the high Class A classification as well.

[toonsterwu]

Is Szczur's ceiling something like Shane Victorino?

 

 

hmm ... probably a bit higher than that, but that's an interesting comp that has me pondering it.

[toonsterwu]

No Cubs made BA's Prospect Hot Sheet though Hak-Ju Lee and Brandon Guyer made it. And, from the Not-So-Hot List:

 

• Michael Burgess, RF, Cubs. Burgess, a part of the Tom Gorzelanny trade, has had a rough debut with his new club. This week, Burgess went just 1-for-18 with high Class A Daytona and is hitting .200/.243/.514 overall this season. Burgess has continued to display his prodigious power this season, hitting six home runs, but he has already struck out 23 times with just four walks. He struck out eight times this week and his lone hit was a single. He has struggled in parts of three previous seasons at the high Class A classification as well.

 

 

Burgess was the name of that deal, btu the real intrigue was always with the young arms, particularly Hicks.

 

He's got a good arm - I don't recall if Burgess was ever a pitcher in his prep days, but I wonder if that's a thought. Not a big fan, though. He either swings for power and has a messy approach, or he either works hard at his approach at a significant loss in power. He hasn't found that balance, and I doubt he will, and I've seen him a fair share.

[craig]

I think given his draft past the Burgess was obviously the most famous name, but I think clearly Morris the shoulder surgery guy was the best prospect of the three.

 

There are enough fringy lefties in the majors that Hicks has a shot too, just like Rosscup does.

 

My impression was that Hicks was initially projected to perhaps throw hard, but that over his several years in the minors he's never actually added any velocity. Am I wrong? Or does he actually have a significantly plus fastball?

 

I thought I'd seen somebody do an Archer comparison, which I thought was meaning a guy who was a super wildman elsewhere who might moderate his wildness to some extent. But there isn't the idea that Hicks has a big fastball like Archer or has electric stuff like Archer had and was known to have before we ever got him, is there?

[TruffleShuffle]

# Cameron Greathouse, LHP, Cubs (Low-A Peoria): 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 8 K. Talked about as a sleeper on this week's podcast; potential left on left specialist.

 

# Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs (Double-A Tennessee): 1-for-4, R, BB, 3 K. Fantastic start is keeping season numbers high at .297/.404/.495; 7-for-44 (.159) in last 11 games with 14 strikeouts.

[toonsterwu]

don't know if someone's noted it yet, but Bruce Miles noted on his blog that the P-Chiefs sent out a release saying Justin Bristow has decided to retire. Shame. I don't actually see it on the Chiefs website right now, but maybe it'll eventually got put up there. If so, disappointing in that I recall how exciting he sounded/looked at the end of 2009. At that point, though, there was a lot of excitement over the 2008 arms, and I really thought he could be a sleeper from that crop.

[Guest]

Matt (Chicago): What's your take on Hayden Simpson, so far? I hear his weight and velocity have both been sub-par.

 

Kevin Goldstein: I'll be writing details on both him and Seattle's Taijuan Walker after I'm done chatting.

 

Matt (Chicago): Is Brett Jackson's baseline rising at all in your book? That dude can really take a walk and appears fairly sluggy.

 

Kevin Goldstein: I had him as the No. 1 prospect going into the year, and the first thing I wrote was about the approach and gap-to-average power, so no, no real change for me.

 

dtrainmets (NY): Whose better: Brett Jackson and Gary Brown? they seem similar

 

Kevin Goldstein: They aren't similar at all, other than being center fielders. Big gaps in power, speed, style of game.

 

And the Garza trade prospects:

 

mike (orlando): chris archer, 1/2 season wonder? all control he flashed early on last year seems to have gone out the window when he was promoted to AA

 

Kevin Goldstein: Chris Archer wasn't exactly pounding the strike zone at any point in his career, it's always been about great stuff and the hope that he can harness it, which he has not done a good job of this year.

 

kf4ykd (Charlottesville): What's your take on Brandon Guyer's future with the Rays? He gets the distinction of hitting a HR in his first MLB at-bat, but that really means very little.

 

Kevin Goldstein: He'll have a career as a second-division starter kinda guy.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=836

[Bruno7481]

Report on Simpson wasn't exactly glowing. Pitched well, but was hitting 87-88 all night. Apparently his velocity has barely topped 90 all year.