Cub prospects in the news

[davell]

I hate saying this, but I think we've seen the last of Cashner starting unfotunately.

[SouthSideRyan]

I hate saying this, but I think we've seen the last of Cashner starting unfotunately.

 

I said back this back in April. This organization is so [expletive] frustrating

[muntjack]

If you don't want to trade Castro, then how is he infinitely more valuable to the Cubs at SS versus 2B (assuming Lee is also playing)?

 

The only way Castro is more valuable at SS is if we're talking trade value. And even then, teams know he can play SS even if he spends time at 2B.

 

 

I guess I don't understand what is confusing. I don't WANT to trade Starlin Castro, but I'd rather have the package he would net than an .800 OPS 2nd baseman.

[jersey cubs fan]

If you don't want to trade Castro, then how is he infinitely more valuable to the Cubs at SS versus 2B (assuming Lee is also playing)?

 

The only way Castro is more valuable at SS is if we're talking trade value. And even then, teams know he can play SS even if he spends time at 2B.

 

 

I guess I don't understand what is confusing. I don't WANT to trade Starlin Castro, but I'd rather have the package he would net than an .800 OPS 2nd baseman.

 

I've love to have an 800 OPS 2B, but I'd prefer Castro.

[Tyrant]

If you don't want to trade Castro, then how is he infinitely more valuable to the Cubs at SS versus 2B (assuming Lee is also playing)?

 

The only way Castro is more valuable at SS is if we're talking trade value. And even then, teams know he can play SS even if he spends time at 2B.

 

 

I guess I don't understand what is confusing. I don't WANT to trade Starlin Castro, but I'd rather have the package he would net than an .800 OPS 2nd baseman.

 

1. You have absolutely no idea what sort of return Castro would net.

2. Castro looks like he's going to be better than an .800 OPS player.

3. Even if he's not, what's wrong with an .800 OPS second baseman?

[CubsWin]

It is and it isn't.

 

Personally, I'd leave Castro at SS until Lee comes up and proves he's going to be a ML caliber hitter, and then I evaluate whether a switch would do us much good. There's no reason to immediately push Castro off SS like he pushed Theriot off when he came up. Let it work itself out a bit.

If it's clear that Lee is the better defensive SS and Castro's offense wouldn't be adversely affected by a move to 2B, then having Lee play SS would clearly be the best move for the team. If Lee struggles offensively after being called up, there's no reason why they couldn't just move Castro back to SS and send Lee to AAA.

Changing positions does carry with it a heightened injury risk. So if you're gonna make a move, you only want to make it once. There is no reason to move castro off short, move him back when Lee struggles, move him off again when Lee gets another shot, and so on and so forth until we know whether Lee will be a ML caliber hitter.

 

I guess I can buy some of what you are saying, but there can't be that much injury risk of having Castro go from short to second and back to short.

I agree with Goony. The risk of injury from moving to 2B and back to SS can't be so great as to justify playing players at positions where their defensive skills aren't being used to maximize the team's chances of winning.

 

All of this presupposes that Lee's defense at SS is clearly better than Castro's. From the scouting reports I've heard about, right now, it is. Lee is supposed to be an elite defensive SS. I'm not saying he's going to be Ozzie Smith, but could you imagine not playing the light hitting Wizard of Oz at any other position than SS?

[jersey cubs fan]

All of this presupposes that Lee's defense at SS is clearly better than Castro's. From the scouting reports I've heard about, right now, it is. Lee is supposed to be an elite defensive SS. I'm not saying he's going to be Ozzie Smith, but could you imagine not playing the light hitting Wizard of Oz at any other position than SS?

 

It also presupposes that he hits well enough to be worthy of a job. Bottom line is Castro is the SS for the foreseeable future, and they are a long way off from needing to think about moving him.

 

And just to reiterate. He's a 20 year old SS with a 107 OPS+ a very managable strikeout rate and halfway decent walk rate. He could easily be much more than an 800 OPS 2B.

[squally1313]

I think it all depends on what HJ Lee can do offensively in addition to his defensive skills. If he can come up and be the .300 hitter with speed and good defense that was Castro's most likely projection before the year started, then yes, I would consider trading one of them. It would be like if Soto's injury kept him out the rest of the year and Castillo or Chirinos proved he could be an .800 OPS hitter with average pop and good patience. Sure, you could put one at first next year, but I'm sure there would be plenty of teams willing to give up an .800 OPS first baseman AND MORE to get an .800 OPS catcher.

 

Same thing for Castro/Lee. If it turns out we have two potentially great shortstops (which would be unbelievable), yeah you could hold onto them both, or you could recognize how valuable that is and upgrade another position significantly.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think it all depends on what HJ Lee can do offensively in addition to his defensive skills. If he can come up and be the .300 hitter with speed and good defense that was Castro's most likely projection before the year started, then yes, I would consider trading one of them. It would be like if Soto's injury kept him out the rest of the year and Castillo or Chirinos proved he could be an .800 OPS hitter with average pop and good patience. Sure, you could put one at first next year, but I'm sure there would be plenty of teams willing to give up an .800 OPS first baseman AND MORE to get an .800 OPS catcher.

 

Same thing for Castro/Lee. If it turns out we have two potentially great shortstops (which would be unbelievable), yeah you could hold onto them both, or you could recognize how valuable that is and upgrade another position significantly.

 

SS/2B is comletely different from C/1B. 1B have to hit better than anybody on the field. 2B is still a position of need where a quality bat can go a long way to giving a team a huge advantage. If they can get average SS production out of somebody and really good 2B production out of Castro, I see absolutely no reason to trade the guy.

[CubsWin]

All of this presupposes that Lee's defense at SS is clearly better than Castro's. From the scouting reports I've heard about, right now, it is. Lee is supposed to be an elite defensive SS. I'm not saying he's going to be Ozzie Smith, but could you imagine not playing the light hitting Wizard of Oz at any other position than SS?

 

It also presupposes that he hits well enough to be worthy of a job. Bottom line is Castro is the SS for the foreseeable future, and they are a long way off from needing to think about moving him.

Indeed, this discussion is a wee bit premature.

[Rob]

It is and it isn't.

 

Personally, I'd leave Castro at SS until Lee comes up and proves he's going to be a ML caliber hitter, and then I evaluate whether a switch would do us much good. There's no reason to immediately push Castro off SS like he pushed Theriot off when he came up. Let it work itself out a bit.

If it's clear that Lee is the better defensive SS and Castro's offense wouldn't be adversely affected by a move to 2B, then having Lee play SS would clearly be the best move for the team. If Lee struggles offensively after being called up, there's no reason why they couldn't just move Castro back to SS and send Lee to AAA.

Changing positions does carry with it a heightened injury risk. So if you're gonna make a move, you only want to make it once. There is no reason to move castro off short, move him back when Lee struggles, move him off again when Lee gets another shot, and so on and so forth until we know whether Lee will be a ML caliber hitter.

 

I guess I can buy some of what you are saying, but there can't be that much injury risk of having Castro go from short to second and back to short.

 

Think about turning the DP in a hurry. Momentum is taking each player in different ways, requiring not just the use of different major muscle groups, but different stabilizing muscles, tendons, ligaments, etc...

 

Think about it this way. If MLB came out tomorrow and said that the order of all the bases had been reversed, that everybody now goes from home to 3B to 2B to 1B and then back around to home... how many people do you think would blow out their knees and ankles in the first couple weeks?

[jersey cubs fan]

It is and it isn't.

 

Personally, I'd leave Castro at SS until Lee comes up and proves he's going to be a ML caliber hitter, and then I evaluate whether a switch would do us much good. There's no reason to immediately push Castro off SS like he pushed Theriot off when he came up. Let it work itself out a bit.

If it's clear that Lee is the better defensive SS and Castro's offense wouldn't be adversely affected by a move to 2B, then having Lee play SS would clearly be the best move for the team. If Lee struggles offensively after being called up, there's no reason why they couldn't just move Castro back to SS and send Lee to AAA.

Changing positions does carry with it a heightened injury risk. So if you're gonna make a move, you only want to make it once. There is no reason to move castro off short, move him back when Lee struggles, move him off again when Lee gets another shot, and so on and so forth until we know whether Lee will be a ML caliber hitter.

 

I guess I can buy some of what you are saying, but there can't be that much injury risk of having Castro go from short to second and back to short.

 

Think about turning the DP in a hurry. Momentum is taking each player in different ways, requiring not just the use of different major muscle groups, but different stabilizing muscles, tendons, ligaments, etc...

 

Think about it this way. If MLB came out tomorrow and said that the order of all the bases had been reversed, that everybody now goes from home to 3B to 2B to 1B and then back around to home... how many people do you think would blow out their knees and ankles in the first couple weeks?

 

Every big fat right handed batter who has to run backward would. 99% of all such injuries would be as a result of baserunning in the opposite direction that you have done all your life. I think you are greatly dramatizing the danger. It's different, sure, but it's not asking a LF to play catcher or a 3B to play CF. Middle infielders routinely play one or the other position. I don't want him switching midseason if possible. But if it comes down to it and he starts spring training at 2B, and then the next season has to move back to short, I think the risks are extremely minimal.

[Rob]

 

I guess I can buy some of what you are saying, but there can't be that much injury risk of having Castro go from short to second and back to short.

 

Think about turning the DP in a hurry. Momentum is taking each player in different ways, requiring not just the use of different major muscle groups, but different stabilizing muscles, tendons, ligaments, etc...

 

Think about it this way. If MLB came out tomorrow and said that the order of all the bases had been reversed, that everybody now goes from home to 3B to 2B to 1B and then back around to home... how many people do you think would blow out their knees and ankles in the first couple weeks?

 

Every big fat right handed batter who has to run backward would. 99% of all such injuries would be as a result of baserunning in the opposite direction that you have done all your life. I think you are greatly dramatizing the danger. It's different, sure, but it's not asking a LF to play catcher or a 3B to play CF. Middle infielders routinely play one or the other position. I don't want him switching midseason if possible. But if it comes down to it and he starts spring training at 2B, and then the next season has to move back to short, I think the risks are extremely minimal.

 

I'm not trying to dramatize the danger, I was just using an analogy to make sure the point got across. Something so functionally similar does not mean in any way that your body can handle the different strains placed upon it. So there is certainly at least some degree of danger.

 

Hell, if it played out like you just described, with changes being made in the offseason (and a workout program that can be designed to help with that), I'd have no problem at all. I just don't want the nightmare scenario popping up where Castro is moving between positions every 3 weeks while they decide to give Lee another shot, then send him down, then bring him back up. We need to be pretty damn confident Lee is going to be a ML caliber hitter to justify moving Castro... and that's without even bringing up potential trade value changes and whatnot.

[muntjack]

 

 

1. You have absolutely no idea what sort of return Castro would net.

 

 

Okay, my last post on this subject. Sorry for the derail. I think that Starlin Castro has to have more trade value than all but a few players in MLB. I imagine he would fetch an incredible return. Again, I do NOT want to trade him (I would advocate trading Lee in this case) and I'm aware that discussing this is premature, but I'm really curious as to why so many of you could care less about moving him from the most valuable spot on the field even if he becomes an elite defender there. It much easier to go out and grab a Kelly Johnson than it is a Hanley Ramirez.

 

Do you also feel that the Yankees keeping Jeter at SS over ARod was the right move? What if ARod hadn't "bulked" up? It's not the best analogy because the Yankees can buy production wherever and whenever, and Jeter was never the defender than Starlin could be, but still...

 

If Hak-Ju Lee hits his ceiling defensively and comes up completely raking then by all means move Starlin over. I just hate to see a 70 glove 80 bat replaced by an 80 glove 50 bat.

[davell]

Best case scenario for Lee offensively appears to be a .300 hitting/high OBP speedster with gap power. If he DOES become that type of player, do you move Castro at that point? Assuming his defense is better than Castro's?

[Rob]

Best case scenario for Lee offensively appears to be a .300 hitting/high OBP speedster with gap power. If he DOES become that type of player, do you move Castro at that point? Assuming his defense is better than Castro's?

 

That would depend on the gap defensively.

[davell]

Best case scenario for Lee offensively appears to be a .300 hitting/high OBP speedster with gap power. If he DOES become that type of player, do you move Castro at that point? Assuming his defense is better than Castro's?

 

That would depend on the gap defensively.

 

 

My honest guess is it can't be TOO much of a difference, since Castro is considered to have elite defensive potential himself. So assuming that's the case, do you switch Lee to 2B or possibly even CF? Obviously, CF isn't an option unless Brett can't get it done first.......

[squally1313]

I think it all depends on what HJ Lee can do offensively in addition to his defensive skills. If he can come up and be the .300 hitter with speed and good defense that was Castro's most likely projection before the year started, then yes, I would consider trading one of them. It would be like if Soto's injury kept him out the rest of the year and Castillo or Chirinos proved he could be an .800 OPS hitter with average pop and good patience. Sure, you could put one at first next year, but I'm sure there would be plenty of teams willing to give up an .800 OPS first baseman AND MORE to get an .800 OPS catcher.

 

Same thing for Castro/Lee. If it turns out we have two potentially great shortstops (which would be unbelievable), yeah you could hold onto them both, or you could recognize how valuable that is and upgrade another position significantly.

 

SS/2B is comletely different from C/1B. 1B have to hit better than anybody on the field. 2B is still a position of need where a quality bat can go a long way to giving a team a huge advantage. If they can get average SS production out of somebody and really good 2B production out of Castro, I see absolutely no reason to trade the guy.

 

Point taken on the difference between SS/2B and C/1B. Knew it was a stretch when I wrote it, and stats definitely back me up.

 

I guess my point is that hypothetically, HJ Lee and Castro both develop enough to have a production of X, where X is considered really good production for middle infielders. What you're saying is that they can each play in the infield and we get that production from both of them. What I'm saying is that if another team has a second baseman with the same offensive production of X, but can't play shortstop, Castro and Lee would both be considered much more valuable, because of their ability to play a more premium position. So that other team would be willing to give up that second baseman with identical output and more to get one of those guys.

 

Again, there's not much point in talking about it now, with Castro on fire 80 games in and Lee still in the lower levels. It all depends on his development. But should that very nice scenario occur....I'll just say it'd be a good problem to have.

[davearm2]

If Hak-Ju Lee hits his ceiling defensively and comes up completely raking then by all means move Starlin over. I just hate to see a 70 glove 80 bat replaced by an 80 glove 50 bat.

But the whole point is, you are not replacing one with the other. The premise is, both guys are on the field together.

 

Thus the question is, do you play the 80 glove at SS and the 70 at 2B, or visa versa?

[Guest]

Junior Lake ftw. :)

 

 

 

 

just kidding - he's the most likely of the three to move off SS.

[seattlecub]

lets just say lake, lee, castro, and vitters develop as hoped—what do you do? you have 3 shortstops and a 3b.

[Guest]

lets just say lake, lee, castro, and vitters develop as hoped—what do you do? you have 3 shortstops and a 3b.

Well, if they all reach their ceilings, the first thing you do is thank the baseball gods for your overflow of bounty. Then you trade one to fill a gap elsewhere. Or you stick Vitters at first base - if he reaches his ceiling he'd hit plenty to play there.

[Guest]

Even if Vitters and Lake's defense at their current positions are adequate, you can move Lake to 3B and Vitters to 1B.

[Guest]

Todd (Chattanooga): What's your feeling on the Derek Lee trade? I know Robinson Lopez is the wildcard... Do you all still see him as a high risk/reward type player? Any idea what the other prospects might bring to the Cubbies? Thanks!

 

Matthew Eddy: My first reaction is that the Cubs did very well in turning the final 1.5 months of Derrek Lee's time in Chicago (plus a lot of cash) into something interesting. We'll have to wait 2-3 years to fully evaluate Robinson Lopez, but Jeff Lorick could move fairly quickly on a situational relief track.

 

Joe D (Nashville): I have finally realized that the Cubs are pathetic. What is the ETA for Chris Archer & Brett Jackson and your expectations? With Colvin moving to 1B will that speed up the path for Jackson? I know there will be spots open in that rotation for Archer :) Thanks!

 

Matthew Eddy: Unless the Cubs get good in a hurry, I think it's safe to assume Chris Archer and Brett Jackson will make appearances in Wrigley before next season is through. Combined with Starlin Castro and Tyler Colvin, that's not a bad starting point for a rebuild at all.

[videographer]

BA chat 8/25

 

Navin (Pasadena, CA): Ben Wells got 3rd round money from the Cubs. Your scouting report made him sound like a late bloomer but is he worth the over slot?

 

 

Jim Callis: Remember that the slots are bogus to begin with. In the next day or two, I'll do a Draft Blog post that shows how out of touch the slots are with reality. The short version: the top 50 bonuses are 37 percent higher than the top 50 slots . . . Back to Wells: He was a late bloomer, and one scout told me he easily could have been a third-round pick if he had been scouted heavily enough. So I like that investment a lot.