Cub prospects in the news

[toonsterwu]

I know there's a positive blurb about Guyer by Badler in BA, but since I've only seen it 2nd hand, I don't think it's appropriate for me to post it, on the off chance that someone else only chose to cut and paste certain aspects.

 

I don't know why I found this interesting, but the latest AskBA

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2010/2610924.html

 

showed that the average age of Cubs players on full-season squads was the 3rd youngest of any organization. For some reason, I had thought of us as middle of the pack, if not slightly older. We're younger on the pitching side of the equation.

[Guest]

I know there's a positive blurb about Guyer by Badler in BA, but since I've only seen it 2nd hand, I don't think it's appropriate for me to post it, on the off chance that someone else only chose to cut and paste certain aspects.

 

I don't know why I found this interesting, but the latest AskBA

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2010/2610924.html

 

showed that the average age of Cubs players on full-season squads was the 3rd youngest of any organization. For some reason, I had thought of us as middle of the pack, if not slightly older. We're younger on the pitching side of the equation.

Well, the Cubs have been pretty aggressive with a number of guys in the system. We've had a number of teenagers / 20 year olds reach not only full-time ball but up to AA (and even the majors with Starlin).

[Clem Fandango]

Not sure if this was posted elsewhere, but Rotoworld did a profile on several AFL players and discussed Chris Carpenter briefly.

 

Chris Carpenter, Cubs

Not 'that' Chris Carpenter, this Chris Carpenter is coming off TJ surgery and questions about his future role. In the pen, he can hit triple-digits and use his slider to dominate, but the ability might be there to provide more value as a starter. In Arizona, he wowed with velocity, and struck out about a batter per inning, but also walked too many batters. Could be a Carlos Marmol replacement if they ever trade their current closer.

[CubsWin]

I know there's a positive blurb about Guyer by Badler in BA, but since I've only seen it 2nd hand, I don't think it's appropriate for me to post it, on the off chance that someone else only chose to cut and paste certain aspects.

 

I don't know why I found this interesting, but the latest AskBA

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2010/2610924.html

 

showed that the average age of Cubs players on full-season squads was the 3rd youngest of any organization. For some reason, I had thought of us as middle of the pack, if not slightly older. We're younger on the pitching side of the equation.

Well, the Cubs have been pretty aggressive with a number of guys in the system. We've had a number of teenagers / 20 year olds reach not only full-time ball but up to AA (and even the majors with Starlin).

Given the youth of the Cubs system, how does that impact how they rank against other organizations? When I compared the Cubs system to that of the Dodgers, just at a glance I liked the Cubs better primarily because a good number of the Dodgers prospects were 23, 24 and above while the Cubs had a bunch 20, 21 and younger. Where do you come down on the importance of age and how that impacts the organization's ranking? I know that age is important in gauging an individual prospects value, but what about collectively?

[davell]

I think age can impact rankings either way honestly. Most of the times, the teams with guys further up the food chain are ranked higher than teams with more guys still in the lower levels.

 

Without going through their entire system, I like the Dodgers quite a bit, at first glance anyway. I think I'd have them higher than the Cubs, but it's fairly close. I doubt we're separated by more than 2-3 teams either way when system rankings come out.

 

I think we could be a team that gets the benefit this year because most of our top prospects will either start the year in AA or AAA. Which is nice for right now, but the bottom end of our system is extremely weak at the moment. The money that's supposedly been allocated to player development had better actually get spent or else we're going to have a very thin system again within 2 years.

[craig]

...I don't know why I found this interesting, but the latest AskBA

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2010/2610924.html

 

showed that the average age of Cubs players on full-season squads was the 3rd youngest of any organization. For some reason, I had thought of us as middle of the pack, if not slightly older. We're younger on the pitching side of the equation.

 

Given the youth of the Cubs system, how does that impact how they rank against other organizations? .... I know that age is important in gauging an individual prospects value, but what about collectively?

 

toonster, thanks for that tidbit, I hadn't expected that either.

 

I think the age-factor matters at the organizational level, particularly because it includes a large volume of guys. We know that not all younger players improve very much (see Corey, Pie, Choi, Kelton....), but over a large sample some will, perhaps unexpectedly. With a large volume of younger prospects, it improves the chance to get some pleasant and unexpected developmental surprises.

 

This is especially true for young pitchers.

 

I don't expect the Cubs to rank very highly by BA types, probably around the middle, because I don't sense that their top-ten are considered to be that great. But I think our depth in the 10-40 range is quite strong. How many and how much those guys will improve is hard to anticipate.

 

A flip note: I think sometimes organizations with more young guys get over-rated. Simply because younger guys can stay in the minors longer building up their rankings. Pie could be appearing in our top ten for years; Prior's only appearance was before he'd even pitched as a pro. Lee and Vitters, they could each have multiple appearances in our top-10 before they either make the majors to stay, or finally get dismissed as not being that promising after all.

[Outshined_One]

Villanova was knocked out of the FCS playoffs and Matt Szczur had to leave the game because of a possible concussion.

[videographer]

Here are Szczur's season stats:

 

All Purpose g rush rcv pr kr total avg/g

Szczur, Matt 8 368 240 48 233 889 111.1

[davell]

Szczur is going to play in the Senior Bowl.

[Guest]

Ask BA:

 

Which players who didn't make out 2011 Top 100 could rise the highest on our 2012 list? Here are my top half-dozen candidates:

 

4. Josh Vitters, 3b, Cubs: On one hand, he hasn't had a breakout year in the minors and hit just .223/.292/.383 in Double-A last year. On the other, his bat got him drafted him third overall in 2007, he didn't turn 21 until last August and injuries have marred two of his three full pro seasons. The Cubs have noted a greater sense of urgency in Vitters this offseason and think he's on the verge of breakout. If it doesn't happen, then it's time to wonder if he's ever going to live up to his $3.2 million bonus.

[Guest]

Random note about a guy the Cubs couldn't ink in the 2010 draft but Brooks Pinckard is the Baylor closer and was topping out at 96 in a 4-out save.

[davell]

Random note about a guy the Cubs couldn't ink in the 2010 draft but Brooks Pinckard is the Baylor closer and was topping out at 96 in a 4-out save.

 

 

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere the Cubs liked his speed as an OFer more than his arm. Kind of wonder if that's why he didn't sign? Maybe he preferred pitching?

[biittner77]

Random note about a guy the Cubs couldn't ink in the 2010 draft but Brooks Pinckard is the Baylor closer and was topping out at 96 in a 4-out save.

 

 

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere the Cubs liked his speed as an OFer more than his arm. Kind of wonder if that's why he didn't sign? Maybe he preferred pitching?

 

That would be a switch, the Cubs not wanting someone to pitch instead of bat.

[Wrigley Rat]

Rob Whitenack will be the Trey McNutt of 2011. There might not be room for him in the Tennessee Opening Day starting rotation (he is blocked by McNutt-Dolis-Cabrera-Rusin-Raley), but he will begin the season as the #1 starter at Daytona. He has been an extra pitcher at several Cubs Cactus League games but hasn't gotten into a game yet. He has a killer splitter. If I was making a Cubs Top 15 Prospect list right now, Whitenack would be in the Top 10.

Arizona Phil

[TruffleShuffle]

whitenack did show significant improvement last year, albeit very much under the radar. keeps the ball down (only 8 HR allowed in about 250 pro innings, and 2:1 GO/FO ratio), but he's pretty hittable and doesn't strike out a whole lot of guys. i suppose he's got potential as a back of the rotation prospect.

[craig]

Rob Whitenack will be the Trey McNutt of 2011. There might not be room for him in the Tennessee Opening Day starting rotation (he is blocked by McNutt-Dolis-Cabrera-Rusin-Raley), but he will begin the season as the #1 starter at Daytona. He has been an extra pitcher at several Cubs Cactus League games but hasn't gotten into a game yet. He has a killer splitter. If I was making a Cubs Top 15 Prospect list right now, Whitenack would be in the Top 10.

 

That's really great to hear.

 

whitenack did show significant improvement last year, albeit very much under the radar. keeps the ball down (only 8 HR allowed in about 250 pro innings, and 2:1 GO/FO ratio), but he's pretty hittable and doesn't strike out a whole lot of guys. i suppose he's got potential as a back of the rotation prospect.

 

I had Whitenack at #19 on my prospect list, I think higher than anybody else and probably the only nut to put him into their top-30 until now with Phil.

 

Projectible, was really effective over the last 3-4 months, K-rate improved and HR-rate dropped a lot. How much better and/or faster can he get? Too soon to know where his velocity, breaking stuff, control, and HR-containment will end up, but he’s got a chance to be a useful major leaguer.

 

I don't know how hard he throws. But I think he's got a chance to become pretty valuable and useful. He's got a chance to be excellent in two of the signatures for a good pitcher: low HR and low walks. I'm not sure how hard he threw last spring, or how hard he will throw. But my understanding is that while he's skinny at the waist, that he's got the pretty broad shoulders that suggest he might perhaps project into more velocity and power future than he had last spring. I don't know anything, but I'm ignorantly optimistic that perhaps he'll end up with a fastball that is more than just "back of rotation" fast and more than just "back of the rotation" effective. You can have an asset fastball even if the velocity is average, if the location/movement is above average.

 

Second, my understanding was that he was largely a pitch-to-contact fastball guy for much of last season. I'm hopeful that this reflects a fastball that was already pretty effective, by whatever combo of velocity/movement/command. And may get better as he fills out and get faster as expected. The best way to be a good rotation pitcher is to have a fastball that you can throw a lot, for strikes, without needing to be tricking people all the time. If you can throw a fastball even when they're guessing fastball and still get a nice groundout, that helps. My hope is that's why he's allowed so many hits and so few walks: he was throwing an effective fastball for strikes and for non-HR contact. Some go through, many get caught, but few go over the wall and few guys get walked.

 

Third, if he's got a fastball or projects as much, then if as Phil suggests his splitter is emerging as a killer pitch, that could change everything. He's been a very low-walk guy. So if he can throw strikes/fastballs early and get ahead in the count, and now has a putaway pitch (or the threat thereof), then suddenly the K's could jump. Perhaps even get guys scared to go to 2-strike counts, so they start fishing more even earlier.

 

"Killer breaking pitches" can come and go, though. Phil sees a tiny sample in camp and gets buzzed. But that might not be at all consistent or sustainable. So let's wait and see. I'm hopeful, yes. But that's a whole different thing from being even remotely sure or expectant.

 

Fourth, there were signs last year, statistically. His stuff had no problem stepping from Peoria to Daytona, where he had a 2.04 ERA and a 1.1 WHIP. It wasn't just there, either. He'd been a ERA=2 guy for his last couple of months at Peoria as well. So I believe that over his last 3-4 months, his ERA was terrific. Plus, the K-thing evolved to some degree as well. At Daytona, he was 28K/39IP. Not wow, but a 3K:1BB with low-HR guy is going to be successful. Whether that's a 6K/2BB/9IP blend or a 9K/3BB/9IP blend.

 

As for listing in Phil's top ten, I don't think that's necessarily so crazy. After the Garza trade, of course, we don't really have ten guys with Cy Young/MVP tools. Top ten is of those in the system. Some guys who may not have ace or 5-tool MVP tools are going to be there.

 

Anyway, fun to read some enthusiasm for a guy I've been hoping might emerge as a low-walk-low-HR effective guy.

[toonsterwu]

IIRC, when I saw Whitenack last year, he was topping out low 90's. One big caveat is that, unless I'm mistaken, I'm pretty sure he goes with the 2-seamer a lot more than a 4-seamer, so I'm not certain what he could ramp it up to if he had to.

[Guest]

I actually thought Whitenack had a chance to break with Tennessee this season. Glad to see he's impressing at Fitch.

[craig]

IIRC, when I saw Whitenack last year, he was topping out low 90's. One big caveat is that, unless I'm mistaken, I'm pretty sure he goes with the 2-seamer a lot more than a 4-seamer, so I'm not certain what he could ramp it up to if he had to.

 

Thanks, toonster. That sounds pretty good. If a projectible 21-year-old is working a 2-seamer in low 90's, that sounds like he'd have a chance for a pretty useful fastball if he got any stronger and faster. That doesn't sound like a guy who's necessarily limited by a sub-par fastball.

[toonsterwu]

just to be clear, and this is to the best of my recollection right now, but i think he was topping out low 90's, working more say, 88-91ish. A bit hazy, so don't quote me on that. Of course, 88-91 on a 2-seamer is fine if there's enough movement, and all the reports suggest that he does get good movement on his fastball.

[Guest]

BA's organization rankings:

 

1. Kansas City Royals

2. Tampa Bay Rays

3. Atlanta Braves

4. Toronto Blue Jays

5. New York Yankees

6. Cincinnati Reds

7. Cleveland Indians

8. San Diego Padres

9. Colorado Rockies

10. Philadelphia Phillies

11. Los Angeles Dodgers

12. Minnesota Twins

13. Washington Nationals

14. Texas Rangers

15. Los Angeles Angels

16. Chicago Cubs

17. Boston Red Sox

18. Seattle Mariners

19. Pittsburgh Pirates

20. New York Mets

21. Baltimore Orioles

22. Arizona Diamondbacks

23. San Francisco Giants

24. St. Louis Cardinals

25. Detroit Tigers

26. Houston Astros

27. Chicago White Sox

28. Oakland Athletics

29. Florida Marlins

30. Milwaukee Brewers

[Little Slide Rooter]

How can the Pirates be so low when theyve pretty much had a top 5-10 pick every year for the past 20 years?

[davell]

How can the Pirates be so low when theyve pretty much had a top 5-10 pick every year for the past 20 years?

 

The bottom end of their system looks very intriguing, with Taillon, Allie, and Heredia. Having young guys like that, makes them a great candidate to move quickly up this kind of list. That said, I was curious and looked up their last 10 1st rounders and they are: Jameson Taillon, Tony Sanchez, Pedro Alvarez, Daniel Moskos, Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Paul Maholm, Bryan Bullington, John Van Benschoten, and Sean Burnett.

 

Obviously, it's too early to tell on Taillon, since he's yet to pitch a game in the minors. Sanchez looks like he'll be a solid everyday catcher. Alvarez showed plenty of power last year in the majors, just needs to make more contact, Moskos looks like he's a middle reliever, if he ever makes it.McCutchen is going to be damn good obviously and Neil Walker finally made it look like he was a good pick too. Maholm has had serviceable years and the last 3 guys were total busts.

 

They may be ranked pretty low right now, but Alvarez, McCutchen, Walker, Tabata and Sanchez are very nice young offensive players to have, then you've got the 3 pitchers I just mentioned along with the 1st pick in this draft. So once you add Cole or Rendon to the mix, I can see them having lots to be excited about for a change.

[SouthSideRyan]

Bryan Bullington, John Van Benschoten, and Sean Burnett.

 

What a hilarious run of top picks. Sorry Jake

[Guancous]

Jason Parks has a great article on Baseball Prospectus about what could go right with the Cubs system (subscription required):

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13315

 

Nice to see some optimism.