Cub prospects in the news

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Baseball America's podcast this week is on the NL Central.

 

Cubs notes:

 

Zych will be top 30

 

Skeptical of Vogelbach because of his weight, especially his ability to keep it off long-term.

 

"Not the greatest top 10 in the world, not the worst in the division but close. Closer to the worst than the best. A lot of guys in the bottom half of top 10 who do not look like top-10 guys: Vitters, Dolis and Lake all have pretty big holes in their games."

 

Vitters still has upside, but if he wasn't the former No. 3 overall pick, wouldn't be in the top 10.

 

System has a problem with gluts of players in the same positions in the same spot, pushing guys into positions where they don't profile to. Criticizes our development strategies for letting that happen, i.e. Flaherty, LaMahieu and Vitters.

 

"If everything comes together perfectly, Flaherty is a left-handed Mark DeRosa."

 

"LeMahieu is like a dead-ball era third basemen."

 

"Cubs are hoping LeMahieu can be Jeff Cirillo"

 

Only guy in the mass of middle infielders who could be a regular player is Lake, and joked about it being as a reliever. Debated whether he really has an 80 arm or not. Comp Lake to Tim Beckham.

[TruffleShuffle]

some guy for bp writes a feature called "prospects will break your heart" and he had some stuff about szczur recently:

 

Who: Matt Szczur (Cubs)

Background with Player: My own eyes; information from industry sources

Documented Observations and Prognostications: In spring 2011, I wrote the following on BP:

 

Convincing Szczur to forgo his NFL plans to focus on baseball might end up being the club’s most important move of the year. Szczur has off-the-charts athleticism, routinely showing 80-grade speed in game action. His hit tool was present during his brief 101 at-bats in ’10, hitting .347 with enough patience and pop to give him multiple dimensions at the plate. He projects to hit for average and power, with the latter holding a plus projection thanks to his raw strength and easy swing. Szczur profiles as an everyday center fielder that will eventually convert his 80 straight-line speed into 70 range, and his arm and glove both look to be solid-average tools. With people already lining up to champion his makeup and work ethic, and a collection of tools that could make him a top-tier prospect in the minors, it’s now clear that the Cubs might have stolen one of the best talents in the 2010 draft.

 

Reports change as players change, both physically and emotionally, and I do have a revised opinion on Szczur. His game speed hasn’t translated like some expected; he looks more like a plus runner than an elite runner. Despite his athleticism, he isn’t an overly athletic player in the field; he sometimes struggles with route/read adjustments in center. Do I still think he has first-division potential? I’m not sure that’s realistic. But I still believe that Szczur is learning how to utilize his physical tools on the baseball field, and it’s not always going to be pretty. I’m standing strong on the 22-year-old, projecting a major-league future, but not a star.

 

What Could Go Wrong with my DOP: Within the industry, the Szczur bus seems to be losing passengers daily, mostly because the super-athletic outfielder isn’t as super athletic as some expected, the speed isn’t all that speedy, the hit tool isn’t all that sexy, and the power looks great at 5 o’clock but doesn’t seem to show up when it counts. If these doubts persist, I’m going to be standing alone with Szczur in the cold reality of failure. I just see something in this kid that makes me think he can find a way to adjust and maneuver his way to the majors. He might be a late bloomer, taking longer than expected to reach an acceptable developmental level for the highest level. I’m still on board, but I stand a good chance to end up lonely.

[scarey]

and the power looks great at 5 o’clock but doesn’t seem to show up when it counts

 

What does this mean? Is he saying he can hit for power in his first AB, but nothing after that? If that's the case... I'm not sure how to take that evaluation.

[Guest]

and the power looks great at 5 o’clock but doesn’t seem to show up when it counts

 

What does this mean? Is he saying he can hit for power in his first AB, but nothing after that? If that's the case... I'm not sure how to take that evaluation.

 

Batting practice power

[toonsterwu]

The big thing troubling me about Szczur is his approach at the plate. The issue existed before Daytona - IIRC (and I haven't gone and looked at the numbers in awhile), his BB and K rates were trending in the wrong directions as the season progressed in Low A. Now, it could be much ado about nothing. It could be a kid learning to adjust. Or, combined with his A+ issues, it could be a sign of big troubles to come. That said, he's still so young as a FT baseball player that it is hard not to anticipate/hope for some more development.

 

I never did expect "elite" speed, though. I always viewed him as a good speed guy with good quickness, as those were the reports out of his football days in Vandy (I know there were a couple places that reported elite 40 times for him, but I never heard enough to buy that as legitimate).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Fangraphs with a poorly-written but interesting article on Junior Lake.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chicago-cubs-junior-lake-fangraphs-baseball-scouting-report-video/

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Fleita was in Tennessee yesterday to present the Smokies with some MiLB award. Had a lot of stuff to say about who is going there this season.

 

Beeler, Rhoderick, McNutt, Ha, Soto, Lake and Bour are going to start in AA, according to Fleita. And he says Lake has grown "another couple of inches" since last season.

[toonsterwu]

Beeler is a mild surprise, but the bigger surprise is someone who really doesn't really factor into many discussions, but Eliot Soto? If I were to read too much into things, it might seem to suggest that they feel it's important to have a really good glove guy at short in AA to ... perhaps try Junior Lake at other positions?

 

The mildly interesting third note is that no mention of Szczur, which makes me sort of happy. I hope Szczur starts in Daytona - gives Ha more time in CF to see what to make of the mixed reports on his defensive work there (had some really superbly positive reports ... and some fairly negative ones) and it's not like Szczur is screaming down the doors for the AA move.

 

Of course, way too early to make any locks of anything. Here's hoping Bour can find whatever it was that helped Rebel Ridling put together a good AA season.

[craig]

Beeler is a mild surprise, but the bigger surprise is someone who really doesn't really factor into many discussions, but Eliot Soto? If I were to read too much into things, it might seem to suggest that they feel it's important to have a really good glove guy at short in AA to ... perhaps try Junior Lake at other positions?

 

The mildly interesting third note is that no mention of Szczur, which makes me sort of happy. I hope Szczur starts in Daytona - gives Ha more time in CF to see what to make of the mixed reports on his defensive work there (had some really superbly positive reports ... and some fairly negative ones) and it's not like Szczur is screaming down the doors for the AA move.

 

Of course, way too early to make any locks of anything. Here's hoping Bour can find whatever it was that helped Rebel Ridling put together a good AA season.

 

Interesting comments, although the only surprising one was the one about Lake getting taller. Good point that combined with the Soto comment, it might suggest that Oneri may finally be ready to try Lake at some position where he belongs. Keeping him at SS has been just kind of Foxing him. The idea that he's gotten taller is very encouraging, to me. His only chance is as a power hitter, and if he's taller and fills out, he may be better able to hit some HR's without needing to sell out for power.

 

Fun to start getting discussion about who'll go where.

[Rob]

So where are we putting Cardenas on our respective lists?

[davell]

Yeah, I was wondering about that too. He was 12th on BA's list this year for the A's before the Gio trade. But, to me he has a limited upside, so it's kind of like how I'll rank a guy like Clevenger. Probably a tad higher than him, but my guess is I'll have him somewhere in the 25-35 range.

[Rob]

He kinda falls into a dead zone for me. I like boom or bust players like Lake. I also like high floor guys such as Clevenger. The guys with moderate at best upside who could still completely miss? Meh.

 

Cardenas doesn't have big upside anymore. And he's not a great bet to be a better than average utility guy either.

 

I'll probably have him pretty low.

[toonsterwu]

I'd probably consider Cardenas in the back end of my top 30, where I put a guy like Sappelt. That said, a guy like Amaya might intrigue me overall a bit more, due to SNTS of sorts. Then again, how much better is Cardenas than say, Matt Cerda. He had a perceived higher ceiling at one time, but if he's better than Cerda, it's not by much either.

 

I really haven't pondered it all that deeply, but yeah, borderline top 30 is probably a best case for me.

[bukie]

Keith Law ranking the MLB farm systems. (Insider)

 

Spoiler: Not a fan of the Cubs system, but hates the White Sox system.

[nick23]

Keith Law ranking the MLB farm systems. (Insider)

 

Spoiler: Not a fan of the Cubs system, but hates the White Sox system.

I think his top 100 comes out today. Might be interesting.

[davell]

Rizzo at 36, Brett at 89 and Baez at 95. Not surprising at all, considering he doesn't like Brett and hates Szczur. That said, he's been a fan of our moves this offseason and generally likes Theo, it seems. My guess is we'll be much higher next year on his list.

[RynoRules]

At what number does Law rank our system overall?

[jersey cubs fan]

At what number does Law rank our system overall?

 

20

[RynoRules]

At what number does Law rank our system overall?

 

20

 

Thanks...

 

Any thoughts? Too low?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

There can't be a ton of difference from like 12 to 24 or whatever. The middle is always a big mass.

[bukie]

The only one that's really clear is the White Sox at 30th.

[davell]

At this exact point, I guess I'd put us in the 12-15 range. But, if we added a Garza package and Soler to the mix, I think we'd break into the back of the top 10. But, as Kyle said, it's a clutter in the middle, which is where we are currently.

 

That said, I fully expect we'll be consensus top 10 by this time next year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

At this exact point, I guess I'd put us in the 12-15 range. But, if we added a Garza package and Soler to the mix, I think we'd break into the back of the top 10. But, as Kyle said, it's a clutter in the middle, which is where we are currently.

 

That said, I fully expect we'll be consensus top 10 by this time next year.

 

Unless we get a non-graduating haul for some of our vets, I don't see it for at least two years. We are graduating at the very least Jackson and Rizzo this year, and that's a lot to lose.

[davell]

We're losing guys, but so is everyone else. There could be 30-40 guys come off the top 100 lists due to graduations. I expect a Garza trade and probably a Soto trade to net us some solid pieces, getting depth from trading Byrd and possibly Dempster as well. I think we'll sign Soler9considered a top 20ish type right now) and we have the 6th pick and 3 others between 40 and 70 that I expect we'll do very well on.

 

I also think we have a very large group of guys with potential to break into a top 100ish type prospect as well and expect some of them to do so, just based on odds. I think Baez could be a legit breakout type and be a top 30ish type this time next year. McNutt could move back into a top 50ish type, if he stays healthy. Szczur is still around and could show improvement, because he's had a full year of just baseball and could start to click quicker because of it. Junior Lake and Josh Vitters are obviously question marks that could go either way.

 

As for guys I could see making a list or 2 by this time next offseason? Vogelbach, Candelario, Golden, Hernandez, Torreyes, Wells, Maples, Rhee, and Concepcion. Obviously, they all won't, but I'd be surprised if we don't get at least 2 of them onto those types of lists by this time next year.

 

My thinking is 2 of those guys, Baez, Szczur, probably McNutt, and the 6th pick as top 100 types, with depth coming from some of the rest of the group I named and the early picks in the draft, not to mention a possible Soler signing or Garza, Soto trades. I think we'll be pretty highly rated next offseason.

[Guest]

Sup 1st/2nd. RT @Frankieaaron: @Kevin_Goldstein If Gerardo Concepcion were in the draft, about which round would you expect him picked?