Greene to Cards close

[Rob]

Greene's season last year was inexplicable. It just doesn't make sense. There's really no explanation unless he tried to play the entire time with a hidden wrist injury or something like that. There's struggling, and there's struggling.

I think he had what would just be a bad year most of the time, coupled with PetCo and playing on a god awful team.

 

Or maybe Greene just lost it and is going to suck now. Thats why people who predict guys stats year after year are usually wrong. Greene could bounce back and it could be a great trade for the Cardinals, but If Greene hits 230 with a 650-680 OPS at 6.5m it's an awful trade. We will just have to wait and see what happens.

 

I'd love to see your studies on how wrong they are. I'm sure they're fascinating.

 

 

I don't need to have studies, it's common sense that alot guys predicted stats don't happen. Maybe saying usually wrong was the wrong word, but their wrong alot. There's too much of a human factor to predict every player stats. Guys have good or bad years, some guys improve, some guys decline or get hurt, some guys have career years and some guys just lose it. Greene drop off this season is just one example. Another one off the top of my head would be who would have thought Nick Swisher would have a worse season in 2008, then he did in 2007 even though he was playing at US Cellular Field. Or even Rich Hill losing it or Ryan Dempster being awesome. So when I see somebody say my stats say the Cubs will win 88 games next year, in December I find it more funny then interesting.

 

So... because there are no certainties, you don't see how projections add any predicative value?

[davearm2]

Well if the argument is, Greene's ceiling still is still X despite his 2008, that's fine. It's kind of a silly way to view the situation though, but sure, his ceiling hasn't changed.

 

A better way to view the situation would be to consider how his expected level of production has changed (or even better, how the frequency distribution of a range of output levels now looks). That expectation had sure better be taking a big hit, and that frequency distribution had better be shifting left. Simply saying the tail of the distribution (i.e., Greene's ceiling) hasn't moved doesn't tell us a whole lot.

 

And we're all doing this in our head. I don't think it's shifted the tail of it at all. I think it has just taken some of the lower percentiles down. It's flattened the lower end, if anything. His expected level of production going into last season was probably an .830 or so OPS, with a fairly good chance of hitting .850 or higher. His expected level of production going into this season is probably a little lower, around .800 with a fairly good chance of hitting .850 or higher. Not as likely as it was before 2008, but it's still significant.

I'm with TT on this one.

 

Having a 200 point boost in OPS from one year to the next as the expectation just doesn't pass the smell test.

 

That sort of jump would certainly be within the range of possible outcomes, but the expectation (mean) has to be much lower than that, to give proper weight to the most recent sample point.

 

It will be interesting to see what PECOTA has to say. Last year their weighted mean was .261/ .318/.474/.792 (equivalents). Seeing that drop down into the .750 range this year would be no surprise at all to me. Meanwhile your .800 figure obviously represents a slight increase from the PECOTA 08 projection.

 

Fire away with the anti-PECOTA rant if you must.

[Rob]

As a Cubs fan after last year, you should have a greater understanding for just how bad an extreme flyball hitter can look in petco... and how much better they can be getting out of that mess.

 

I understand that PETCO is where fly balls go to die, but the dude's road stats were .212/.225/.317 last year.

 

He sucked ass everywhere he went last year. Is a change of scenery going to have that much more of an effect? Maybe he won't have a VORP in the negative digits. Horray for him.

 

Meh. 200 PA on the road is just 200 PA on the road.

 

In 159 PA in 2006, Ryan Theriot hit .328/.412/.522. How much stock should we put in that? Is Ryan Theriot the best offensive SS in the NL?

[OleMissCub]

he had a really bad year last year... we get it. it's unlikely to happen again.

 

Hell, I'd imagine so. You damn near have to try to suck to be as bad as he was last year. Doesn't take Nostradamus to predict that he'll be better than he was last year.

[davearm2]

I don't need to have studies, it's common sense that alot guys predicted stats don't happen. Maybe saying usually wrong was the wrong word, but their wrong alot. There's too much of a human factor to predict every player stats. Guys have good or bad years, some guys improve, some guys decline or get hurt, some guys have career years and some guys just lose it. Greene drop off this season is just one example. Another one off the top of my head would be who would have thought Nick Swisher would have a worse season in 2008, then he did in 2007 even though he was playing at US Cellular Field. Or even Rich Hill losing it or Ryan Dempster being awesome. So when I see somebody say my stats say the Cubs will win 88 games next year, in December I find it more funny then interesting.

If you view the projections in the proper context, maybe they won't seem so funny.

 

Nobody's predicting the Cubs will win 88 games exactly. It's more like an over/under.

 

Vegas never predicts a football team to score half a point either, but there are those +3 1/2 lines every week.

[imb]

if last year doesn't matter then what stats are you using to justify your man crush? Stats before last year? Random Stats to support a theory?

 

What matters is that Greene is not good. Has yet to be good at any point and has been injured in nearly every season.

 

This is the part that people who follow stats forget. Injuries cost a player something that cannot be quantified. Continued injuries make you worse. Greene is worse then he has been and will continue to be.

 

Find a new diamond in the rough that makes more logical sense and people might begin to pay attention again.

LOL

 

What do you have to do to be considered a good shortstop?

 

outslugging ryan theriot would be a nice start

done every year except last year.

what's next? You going to tell me that Lohse is better than Zambrano because of last years ERA and win totals?

no, i mean a good shortstop should never slug below ryan theriot

 

and a good pitcher should never have an era higher than kyle lohse. hsit happens.

 

come on man, you know perfectly well that greene is much better than you're making him out to be right now. you're saying this stuff because he's going to the cards, plain and simple.

 

but it's not like lohse had a 4.90 era and zambrano had a higher one. 3.78 to 3.91...and zambrano's era+ was higher, btw.

 

Greene slugged .339. .339!

 

Guys it was just petco! oh he was worse on the road. face it, he sucks and his bad bat is only compounded by the 6.5 mil he's going to make this year.

[cubsfan26]

So... because there are no certainties, you don't see how projections add any predicative value?

 

Of course not, I'm just saying people sometimes act like projections for players is set in stone. We have people on here debating how good or bad Greene will be based on what they thought he would do a year ago if he left Petco, and his final stats from last year. With that information I don't think anybody can call this a good trade or a bad trade. I agree with the options out there for a SS, this was a decent gamble for the Cardinals though.

 

If you view the projections in the proper context, maybe they won't seem so funny.

 

Nobody's predicting the Cubs will win 88 games exactly. It's more like an over/under

 

I understand it, I guess I just don't understand the point of it on December 3rd. Especially when that makes us 9 games worse then we were a year ago.

[17 Seconds]

if last year doesn't matter then what stats are you using to justify your man crush? Stats before last year? Random Stats to support a theory?

 

What matters is that Greene is not good. Has yet to be good at any point and has been injured in nearly every season.

 

This is the part that people who follow stats forget. Injuries cost a player something that cannot be quantified. Continued injuries make you worse. Greene is worse then he has been and will continue to be.

 

Find a new diamond in the rough that makes more logical sense and people might begin to pay attention again.

LOL

 

What do you have to do to be considered a good shortstop?

 

outslugging ryan theriot would be a nice start

done every year except last year.

what's next? You going to tell me that Lohse is better than Zambrano because of last years ERA and win totals?

no, i mean a good shortstop should never slug below ryan theriot

 

and a good pitcher should never have an era higher than kyle lohse. hsit happens.

 

come on man, you know perfectly well that greene is much better than you're making him out to be right now. you're saying this stuff because he's going to the cards, plain and simple.

 

but it's not like lohse had a 4.90 era and zambrano had a higher one. 3.78 to 3.91...and zambrano's era+ was higher, btw.

 

Greene slugged .339. .339!

 

Guys it was just petco! oh he was worse on the road. face it, he sucks and his bad bat is only compounded by the 6.5 mil he's going to make this year.

 

i like how you keep only mentioning last season and not the rest of his career.

 

his career road slugging percentages

 

.625

.543

.465

.507

.519

.317

 

it's pretty obvious which one was the aberration there. well, obvious to anyone who is not biased.

 

just for fun...his road OPS by season

 

.986

.895

.756

.863

.840

.542

 

YEAH THIS GUY SUCKS ASS

 

come on, when numbers are that consistent it's obvious that petco is completely destroying his numbers. when you take into account his defense, he's not making a lot... at all.

 

he's going to the cards though...so this dude sucks

[imb]

you know i'm just giving meph a hard time because he spent all offseason telling us that greene was the answer at ss, everyone ate it up and he ops+'d 64.

 

can you imagine what would have happened on this board last year if he would have had the same season and we had traded for him? his numbers probably would have been a little better, since his home games wouldn't have been in petco. of course his road slashes were worse than his home slashes, so maybe not.

 

if the cardinals want to give greene a shot and hope that he's more than just average, they can go for it.

 

i'd rather stick with theriot (and i think it's established how much i hate ryan theriot) and hope that we use that 6.5 million to go after a bigger fish, not a short stop that didn't outslug a guy who could only rack up 24 XBHs a year ago.

 

also, take out his OPS in coors field and you already lose like 40 points off his career road OPS.

[RedFlash]

We know how well the last time the Cards pick up a discarded SS from San Diego:

 

.222 .294 .256 at 27 yrs old

.213 .260 .339 at 29 yrs old

 

So naturally, Greene will be a Cardinal fior the next 15 yrs and becomes their next pseudo HOF, like Ozzie Smith.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Krasovic believes clearing Greene's salary may improve the chances of the Padres retaining Jake Peavy.

 

Interesting, last I checked, they Pads were moving Peavy becasue he wanted no part of a rebuilding team, not because of salary issues.

[mopapa]

Of the 71 players that BP lists as playing SS last year, Greene is 61st with a whopping -7.1 (yes, negative) VORP. Our li'l bitty gritty Riot was 10th out of 71 with a 27.9 rating.

 

What's VORP? I'm guessing it's a combination of stats, but which ones? Thanks.

[UK1679666180]

STL would've been better off going after someone like Bartlett (who also had a subpar year both offensively and defensively) and using that salary difference towards additional players.

[Jehrico]

We know how well the last time the Cards pick up a discarded SS from San Diego:

 

.222 .294 .256 at 27 yrs old

.213 .260 .339 at 29 yrs old

 

So naturally, Greene will be a Cardinal fior the next 15 yrs and becomes their next pseudo HOF, like Ozzie Smith.

That was also before the Padre's had a black hole for a hitters park called Petco.

 

Some thoughts on the whole Greene situation...

 

You can't ignore last years stats anymore than you can't ignore the previous 4 years stats.

More recent stats normally hold more value for prediction than older stats, unless there is a specific reason the more recent stats should be disregarded (i.e. playing through injury...).

You can't ignore park factors. Petco was the worst park in which to hit in 2008. Busch2 was 23rd, so getting out of Petco to go to Busch2 should help a little, but not that much.

2008 wasn't just a down year for Khalil, it was epically disastrous. It was the kind of bad year that has ended other players careers before. You have to wonder if there are any lingering mental issues from such a frustrating season.

After exceptionally bad or good years, normally you should expect players to regress towards their expected norms.

 

I think if you consider all of the above, Greene shouldn't be immediately dismissed or discounted based solely on his 2008. That's narrowmindedly dismissive, especially in light of his past before that. On the other hand, nor should anyone consider this the type of move that separates championship franchises from the rest of the pack. That's just as foolish as evaluating Greene based solely on his 2008, just on the other end of the foolish spectrum.

 

This move makes more sense for the Cardinals than it does us. They were trotting out Ceasar freaking Izturis at SS last year, occasionally platooned with Aaron Miles. Greene should be expected to improve the position for both of them offensively and defensively, even if you go with more conservative projections for Greene. The Cardinals have less payroll uncertainty than we do, and can gamble on how much of an upgrade Greene will be over what they had last year. On the other hand, regardless of what you think of Theriot (I think he peaked and should be sold high), it's more of a gamble that Greene would upgrade SS for us in 2009 than it is with St Louis. Without Greene, we were projecting to be in better shape than SS than St Louis anyways. Plus, with our payroll uncertainty, we have an additional opportunity cost to factor in if we added the extra $6 mil for that position. Adding Greene could take us out of the Peavy running, or inhibit our ability to upgrade RF which are more pressing needs. That's hard to say because we don't know exactly what we're playing with.

 

Plus, there are some defensive metrics like PMR show Greene's ability with the glove at SS sliding the last few years and actually had him not very good with the glove last year. That's great cause for concern, as his value really is accentuated by his reputation as a rare SS who is outstanding with the glove, and can provide what would be average offense for non-SS positions. It's possible that his 2008 decline in defense was due to pressing because his offense was so horrible last year, but that doesn't explain the drop in 2007 either.

 

I don't understand the extreme polarity of the arguments for or against Greene. I think this easily a case where attitudes should be more middle-of-the-road if you objectively look at the big picture.

[UK1679666180]

Greene is definitely an upgrade from what they had, he had poor discipline before last year and it got worse as far as him expanding him zone, espec. vs. lefties with good breaking pitches.

 

Until he improves his approach, he's going to remind me more and more of Alex Gonzalez.

[CubinNY]

There's going to be a lot of crying on NSBB about Greene next season.

[gflore34]

This is why the Cardinals win championships and we are the butt end of all the jokes.

 

For the record the Cubs have won the last two division championships and the Cardinals haven't. The Cardinals may do somethings better than we do, but trading for a guy like Khalil Greene isn't it.

 

The Cardinals have won 10 World Series titles since our last one. Division champions don't mean squat, and the people that brag about them are the people whose teams got swept in the first round.

 

This is such a Cardinals move, picking up a guy with tons of potential when his value is at its absolute lowest. Not that I completely agree with Meph that Greene is an uber-stub, but I think Greene will have a really really good year with St. Louis.

 

Tony Womack and Ray King sure qualified...

[RynoRules]

Greene is definitely an upgrade from what they had, he had poor discipline before last year and it got worse as far as him expanding him zone, espec. vs. lefties with good breaking pitches.

 

Until he improves his approach, he's going to remind me more and more of Alex Gonzalez.

 

If I were a Cards fan I'd also be concerned that he is a 29 yr old MIF'er with a history of injuries. Those guys typically do not age well, and if you move him to any other position he's basically worthless.

 

Just for fun, did Neifi or Macias ever put up a yr comparable to Greene's last season?

[UK1679666180]

Greene is definitely an upgrade from what they had, he had poor discipline before last year and it got worse as far as him expanding him zone, espec. vs. lefties with good breaking pitches.

 

Until he improves his approach, he's going to remind me more and more of Alex Gonzalez.

 

If I were a Cards fan I'd also be concerned that he is a 29 yr old MIF'er with a history of injuries. Those guys typically do not age well, and if you move him to any other position he's basically worthless.

 

Just for fun, did Neifi or Macias ever put up a yr comparable to Greene's last season?

 

They're different types of hitters, while Greene has above avg. bat speed and looks to drive the ball, Macias and Perez were more concerned with making contact in the right gap.

 

Greene had an EqA of .215 last year, Macias has a career EqA of .232 and Perez is at .218.

[Tyrant]

Of the 71 players that BP lists as playing SS last year, Greene is 61st with a whopping -7.1 (yes, negative) VORP. Our li'l bitty gritty Riot was 10th out of 71 with a 27.9 rating.

 

What's VORP? I'm guessing it's a combination of stats, but which ones? Thanks.

 

Vamping Orbital River Platform

[sneakypower]

no, he's a pretty safe bet to hit worse than greene next year, but is he going to be $6 million worse? i'm going to go ahead and doubt that.

 

By my numbers, right now the Cubs are probably a true 88 or so win team. The Cubs probability of getting in the post season with 88 wins is probably 50%, maybe a little higher given the sad state of our division. If the Greene was just a slight upgrade (say 3 wins) over Theriot those 3 wins, probably increase the chances of us getting into the playoffs by 30-40%. The playoff revenue generated by the higher probability is likely to offset the 6 million extra spent....not to mention the 30-40% higher chance of getting into the playoffs...and possibly DOUBLING or TRIPLING our chances of getting a world series win. All for a six million.

 

dude you said we had a 30% chance of making the playoffs last year and we won the division by like 30 games

Edited December 4, 2008 by sneakypower

[BigbadB]

Greene will be a free agent after the '09 season. For some mysterious reason, many players tend to put up pretty good seasons right before their walk year. Not always, but it does seem to happen more often than not. I'm sure Anaheim wishes that Gary Matthews Jr. didn't have that flukish season the year before they signed him.

 

This will be there year that Greene will need to prove that his bat belongs at the major league level. I'd rather it be with a team not named the Cardinals, but oh well.

 

Defensively, Greene will bring back memories of Ozzie Smith. There probably hasn't been a shortstop with more web gems on Sportscenter during Greene's tenure. Most of his errors actually come from the simplest of plays, where he seems to lack focus. He's excellent at preventing hits and turning routine outs into double plays.

 

I won't predict that Greene will have a Ryan Ludwick like resurgence with the Cardinals, but I wouldn't completely bet against it.

 

I live in San Diego and I cannot explain why Greene was so bad last year. If I had to make a guess, he plays the way he feels. If he is playing on a bad team, he will play bad. If he is playing on a good team, he'll play good. All in all, he's a very strange dude. He is very quiet, keeps to himself and doesn't say much of anything, on or off the field.

 

Moving to the NL Central is exactly what Greene needs. His flyball tendencies should generate a lot more home runs playing most of his games in all of the hitter friendly parks in that division compared to playing most of his games in Petco, Dodger Stadium, Giants Stadium, and the BOB. Not to mention that the NL West featured a lot of really good starters, like Lincecum, Cain, Billingsley, Lowe, Webb and Haren. Outside of the Cubs, there won't be a significant amoun of dominant starters who make even the best hitters in the league look mediocre at best.

[sneakypower]

you know i'm just giving meph a hard time because he spent all offseason telling us that greene was the answer at ss, everyone ate it up and he ops+'d 64.

well i wouldn't say everyone...

[Colin Wyers]

no, he's a pretty safe bet to hit worse than greene next year, but is he going to be $6 million worse? i'm going to go ahead and doubt that.

 

By my numbers, right now the Cubs are probably a true 88 or so win team. The Cubs probability of getting in the post season with 88 wins is probably 50%, maybe a little higher given the sad state of our division. If the Greene was just a slight upgrade (say 3 wins) over Theriot those 3 wins, probably increase the chances of us getting into the playoffs by 30-40%. The playoff revenue generated by the higher probability is likely to offset the 6 million extra spent....not to mention the 30-40% higher chance of getting into the playoffs...and possibly DOUBLING or TRIPLING our chances of getting a world series win. All for a six million.

 

Excuse me, but what? I mean, I'm the founder and co-chair of the Anybody But Ryan Theriot For Shortstop Foundation And Charity Car Wash, but... what?

 

Three marginal wins between Greene and Theriot? Are you... what? 88 wins? 30%-40% increase in playoff odds? Where in the bleeding hell is your replacement level baseline set, the .150 Baseball Prospectus uses for WARP?

 

...what?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

3 wins from one position = slight upgrade?