Greene to Cards close

[The Other 15]

So, win shares is what will make Greene better? There's a concrete science.

[SCCubbieFAN]

Is this deal done? Our local paper is reporting it is.

[laurens]

Is this deal done? Our local paper is reporting it is.

 

ESPN says it is.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/transactions

[Jehrico]

Regardless of how anyone feels about Greene, he's a Cardinal now. That means he's the enemy, and everyone should be rooting against him now.

[Colin Wyers]

So, win shares is what will make Greene better? There's a concrete science.

 

Wow, did you miss the point there.

 

I was under the impression EqA is calculated with broad park factors, and no regard to specific BB data.

 

You would be correct. Colin would be incorrect. I've recovered the park factors that Baseball Prospectus has used in EqA for the last ten years. It's constant for each player on a team, with a few exceptions. It's actually scaled as to what percentage each player had in each park, which of course is better. It makes no finer tune adjustments.

 

I really think you're handling the transition from R/O to R/PA wrong here, and that's giving you an inflated sense of what the difference between Theriot and Greene is on offense. If you want to step me through how you're getting those runs per 660 PA figures then we can have a discussion.

 

(And a .280 EqA for Greene? Really? That's interesting, if by interesting you mean "totally cracked." You really expect him to tie his career-high EqA next year? Remember - EqA is park-adjusted.)

 

I ran the figures real quick using the forecasted wOBA off Fangraphs, with a little park adjustment thrown in, and I'm coming up with a 7 run gap on offense in Greene's favor. Then a +12 for Greene over Theriot in defense (using Rally's projections), and you're looking at around 1.5-2 wins difference between them.

 

Well 1.5 to 2 wins isn't really different than what I am projecting, with the exception of me being a little more optimistic on the offensive side of the equation. As for how I calculated runs. I reconstructed the EqR based on 660 PAs so that would be 5.2*outs*eqa^2.5. I also have to make a side adjustment for OBP%, what in my actual analysis I ignored it for the reason that the two OBP%'s were close and we're talking about a small hand full of outs that Theriot used. Even in accounting the difference, as 10 outs, all of this will be negated by Ryan Theriot's caught stealing, and one vital thing that my DRA uses that EqA should but does not, GIDPs. Because Theriot is a groundball first hitter, as you know, he hits into a lot more GIDPs than your typical hitter. Greene, being an extreme flyball hitter, doesn't hit into quite as many as Theriot. It's only a small handful extra per year, but couple those with outs made on the bases and you close the gap, at least in my eyes, of the OBP difference between the two with respect to outs. FWIW: I'm expecting Theriot to OBP around .350 and I would expect Greene to OBP around .330. Over 660 PAs, that's 13 outs. I'd expect Theriot to ground into about 4 more GIDPs and get caught about 6 more times on base. So we're really only looking at an extra inning with respect to that 20 point OBP difference. You may think I am a little too optimistic with my OBP projection of Greene, but that's all we're differing on. There's nothing wrong with my analysis on how his .330/.280 projection gets the difference over 19 wins.

 

EqA is park adjusted from a value standpoint. As I mentioned above it makes no adjustments further than that. Are there other ways that are better to make more accurate translations for a player, yes. But from a value standpoint, the way they do it would be correct. We are answering an entirely different question.

 

Actually, my .280 EqA isn't really that far out of the blue. His road EqA the three previous seasons were .285, .282, .280 and the season prior to those three he nearly OPS'd 900 so he was up around that mark too.

 

Anyways, component factors aren't perfect.

 

I think that the OBP for Greene is a shade high as well. I think that you and I are closer to agreeing on Greene's value than we are to anyone else in this thread, but I still think you're about 10 runs off on your estimate on offense.

 

I didn't say that BP's park factors specifically were component-based - I only claim to know about the inner workings of the BP stats I claim to know the inner workings of, and that's largely restricted to run estimators. The disagreement was in the way that Rob phrased it - some park factors don't apply that way, but some park factors do.

 

I don't think the difference would be dramatic enough to make up all of 10 runs, although of course if I'm that convinced of that I should test it at some point, shouldn't I.

 

I dislike home-road splits because of sampling issues - you need to at least regress the split based upon the park factor.

[Mephistopheles]

Well Greene's skill set is about as terrible a fit for PETCO park as any hitter in baseball. I think, save adjusting each hit in PETCO individually, his home stats have very little indication of his ability to hit away from PETCO. I dislike using split stats from one season, but we've got split stats for four years prior to last year where his OPS averaged near 850 or so. Yeah there's a bit of parkwork there with Coors, but he's also at a relative disadvantage in 2 of the other 3 parks in the division. There really aren't as many pure anti-flyball parks in the NL Central. His strength plays well in Minute Maid, Great American and Wrigley. His strengths aren't completely nullified in PNC, Busch or Miller park like they are in Dodgers, Pac Bell or especially PETCO.

 

In most cases there isn't a drastic effect of a park on a particular player more than the normal one. Khalil Greene, both statistically, and scout-wise appears to be one. Perhaps .280 is a little on the optimistic side, but I do think he is true talent level is greater than his overall EqA average from 2004-07 (~.270)

[Wheelimus]

I'll go out on a limb and say that this move works out well for the Cardinals. I'm a big believer in taking everything into account when judging a player. And I think you kind of have to take into account just how freaking depressing being a Padre must have been for him. Especially last season.

 

Knowing you play in a ballpark that mine as well have been designed with screwing you over is one thing. Doing that AND playing for a laughing stock is another.

 

I mean, it's kind of strange that his OPS in wins was .840 and in losses it was .438. You kind of have to wonder how many games became lost causes and beat the guy down to a point where on that 4th or 5th AB he just said "bleep it".

 

If I had to wager a guess, I think a .250/.300/.450 line is pretty likely. Not exactly setting the world on fire but if he can pull his head out of his rump defensively I think the Cards will be pretty happy.

[rchap24]

I'll go out on a limb and say that this move works out well for the Cardinals. I'm a big believer in taking everything into account when judging a player. And I think you kind of have to take into account just how freaking depressing being a Padre must have been for him. Especially last season.

 

Knowing you play in a ballpark that mine as well have been designed with screwing you over is one thing. Doing that AND playing for a laughing stock is another.

 

I mean, it's kind of strange that his OPS in wins was .840 and in losses it was .438. You kind of have to wonder how many games became lost causes and beat the guy down to a point where on that 4th or 5th AB he just said "bleep it".

 

If I had to wager a guess, I think a .250/.300/.450 line is pretty likely. Not exactly setting the world on fire but if he can pull his head out of his rump defensively I think the Cards will be pretty happy.

 

They had the guy we traded after there was the video of him doing something weird to Ramirez home run starting at SS (AKA Mr. Izturis). I think he'll be a step in the right direction for the cards. However like you I don't think he'll be that spectacular

[UK1679666180]

I have him pegged at .245/.300/.440 about that or so. Which will prob. be around 93-95 OPS+, EqA between .260-.265, which is right on par for his career.

 

His regression with his already bad plate discipline and 6-7 fewer games at Coors will largely off-set much of the expectations applied to his career road splits.

[Mephistopheles]

Even if you take out Coors and PETCO from his stat line from 04-07 his OPS is over 800.

[UK1679666180]

Even if you take out Coors and PETCO from his stat line from 04-07 his OPS is over 800.

 

Sure, but you can't ignore the regression he had the plate last year. Obviously, the position he plays adds a premium to his offensive which pre-'08 were above avg. for a SS and did so even with a poor approach at the plate. It went from bad to awful last year, even with his quick hands and line drive stroke, he's still not good enough to put up similar road numbers expanding his zone the biggest jump was with the off-speed junk from lefties, his strike zone regressed against pitchers, counts, types of pitches, etc.

 

He's not gifted enough with the bat to try and mimic Soriano and his approach for much of '08 wasn't much diff. than when Soriano is struggling.

[Mephistopheles]

I'm not saying he didn't regress last season. I'm not sure how much of it true regression was, or just how much was just a bad year. Complete collapses in discipline, power and everything just like his is nearly unheard of for a 29 year old without an injury. If he did play through a injury (most likely wrist) as I suspect, then we'd expect catastrophic deterioration of his discipline, but very little to no deterioration of his true discipline level. (think he has to overcompensate by starting his swing earlier etc). Of course I'm merely speculating that the cause was an injury, but if the cause was an injury thats now healed, we can for the most part completely forget about 2008. If not then well yes it does change things. Still, just his discipline regressing doesn't explain all the suck he did. I'm sure before making this deal the Cardinals asked for medical reports and such. If there was something he was trying to tough out, I'm sure they know.

 

That being said, despite me saying his true talent level may still be around .280, there's one thing I didn't take into account that I should. Namely Derrek Lee and Jeff Bagwell among countless others. He IS coming off a season-ending wrist injury. We should expect his power not to be totally 100% until July at the earliest. So yeah I guess a .265 or so expected line immediately (due to almost all of his value as a hitter coming from the home runs) is more likely than the .280 number I've thrown out there - though I think his true talent level is still around .280. I just forgot to take into account that.

Edited December 5, 2008 by Mephistopheles

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm not saying he didn't regress last season. I'm not sure how much of it true regression was, or just how much was just a bad year. Complete collapses in discipline, power and everything just like his is nearly unheard of for a 29 year old without an injury. If he did play through a injury (most likely wrist) as I suspect, then we'd expect catastrophic deterioration of his discipline, but very little to no deterioration of his true discipline level. (think he has to overcompensate by starting his swing earlier etc). Of course I'm merely speculating that the cause was an injury, but if the cause was an injury thats now healed, we can for the most part completely forget about 2008. If not then well yes it does change things. Still, just his discipline regressing doesn't explain all the suck he did.

 

The fact that it's so unprecedented would make me even less likely to project a rebound.

[UK1679666180]

I'm not saying he didn't regress last season. I'm not sure how much of it true regression was, or just how much was just a bad year. Complete collapses in discipline, power and everything just like his is nearly unheard of for a 29 year old without an injury. If he did play through a injury (most likely wrist) as I suspect, then we'd expect catastrophic deterioration of his discipline, but very little to no deterioration of his true discipline level. (think he has to overcompensate by starting his swing earlier etc). Of course I'm merely speculating that the cause was an injury, but if the cause was an injury thats now healed, we can for the most part completely forget about 2008. If not then well yes it does change things. Still, just his discipline regressing doesn't explain all the suck he did.

 

There was plenty of bad luck he ran into, obviously you don't have that LD% and that low BABIP w/out bad luck.

 

It's hard to tell what was a fluke with him.

 

I think his 53 BBs his rookie year were a fluke, the 27 HRs and 44 DBs in '07 were a fluke (prob. closer to 20HRs and 35DBs), and all of '08 was a fluke.

[YearofDaCubs]

I think what it comes down to is Greene will be an upgrade for the Cardinals over Izturcrap.

[rchap24]

I think what it comes down to is Greene will be an upgrade for the Cardinals over Izturcrap.

 

Exactly what I was saying

[UK1679666180]

I think what it comes down to is Greene will be an upgrade for the Cardinals over Izturcrap.

 

They could've got that with Bartlett as well and probably get a guy with an EqA of .255-.260, OPS+ around 85 with similar defensive skills for less money per year. The next question would be is Bartlett and the 4 mil. or so better than Greene and to me... he is.

Edited December 5, 2008 by UK

[rchap24]

I think what it comes down to is Greene will be an upgrade for the Cardinals over Izturcrap.

 

They could've got that with Bartlett as well and probabaly get a guy with an EqA of .255-.260, OPS+ around 85 with similar defensive skills for less money per year. The next question would be is Bartlett and the 4 mil. or so better than Greene and to me... he is.

 

ehhh it's debatable

[Mephistopheles]

I'm not saying he didn't regress last season. I'm not sure how much of it true regression was, or just how much was just a bad year. Complete collapses in discipline, power and everything just like his is nearly unheard of for a 29 year old without an injury. If he did play through a injury (most likely wrist) as I suspect, then we'd expect catastrophic deterioration of his discipline, but very little to no deterioration of his true discipline level. (think he has to overcompensate by starting his swing earlier etc). Of course I'm merely speculating that the cause was an injury, but if the cause was an injury thats now healed, we can for the most part completely forget about 2008. If not then well yes it does change things. Still, just his discipline regressing doesn't explain all the suck he did.

 

The fact that it's so unprecedented would make me even less likely to project a rebound.

 

Guys who had a drop of 200 points or more on OPS over their previous ~800 PAs or so and then had a full season the next year after the big drop.

 

There are 87 such guys from 1900-2006. On average they recovered 60% of their lost OPS. I made no restraints on age. A majority of the players seem to be guys at the end of their careers. Most of the guys that have a longer history of production gained more of it, obviously, when they weren't old. Quite an impressive list though.

 

 

Babe Ruth (x2), Nap Lajoie, Rogers Hornsby, Max Carey, Bill Nicholson, Roy Campanella, Hack Wilson, Jakie Robinson, Al Rosen, Frank Robinson (x2), Will McCovey (x2), Elston Howard, Jimmy Wynn, George Scott, Dick Allen, Hank Aaron, Joe Morgan, Ted Simmons (x2), Fred Lynn, Reggie Jackson (x2), Jeff Burroughs, Bill Madlock, Alan Trammell, Ken Griffey Jr, Gary Sheffield, Albert Belle, Frank Thomas, Larry Walker, Jason Giambi and of course Corey Patterson.

 

It really is quite a list.

 

Even if he gains back 60%, as expected, that's going to be in the 740-50 range for his OPS. Given the fact that most of these guys were on the tail end of their career, I would suspect him to gain more of that back since he was 29 and has a decent length of production than what I have used.

Edited December 5, 2008 by Mephistopheles

[Mephistopheles]

I'm not saying he didn't regress last season. I'm not sure how much of it true regression was, or just how much was just a bad year. Complete collapses in discipline, power and everything just like his is nearly unheard of for a 29 year old without an injury. If he did play through a injury (most likely wrist) as I suspect, then we'd expect catastrophic deterioration of his discipline, but very little to no deterioration of his true discipline level. (think he has to overcompensate by starting his swing earlier etc). Of course I'm merely speculating that the cause was an injury, but if the cause was an injury thats now healed, we can for the most part completely forget about 2008. If not then well yes it does change things. Still, just his discipline regressing doesn't explain all the suck he did.

 

There was plenty of bad luck he ran into, obviously you don't have that LD% and that low BABIP w/out bad luck.

 

It's hard to tell what was a fluke with him.

 

I think his 53 BBs his rookie year were a fluke, the 27 HRs and 44 DBs in '07 were a fluke (prob. closer to 20HRs and 35DBs), and all of '08 was a fluke.

 

He is quite the enigma. I really don't think last year affects his median level of production, just the uncertainty surrounding the distribution of his percentiles.