Cubs Top Prospects Lists (BP, John Sickels, BA, Keith Law)

[UK1679666180]

Anyone:

 

What organization had the best farm system?

 

Does the "class" of the system correlate strongly with draft position? What I mean is if the Rays had the best system could it be because they've always picked so high?

 

It helped but it wasn't the only factor....

 

Davis, Hellickson, McGee, Moore, Brignac, Barnese, Jennings etc were all drafted after the 1sr rd.

[TruffleShuffle]

Anyone:

 

What organization had the best farm system?

 

Does the "class" of the system correlate strongly with draft position? What I mean is if the Rays had the best system could it be because they've always picked so high?

 

We don't know yet. I think it will likely be Oakland or Texas (both of whom have primary built up their farm via Latin America and trades).

 

While Tampa has rated highly for a few years, some of their best prospects are non first rounders (in the bigs: Crawford and Shields, in the minors: Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Reid Brignac, Jeremy Hellickson, Desmond Jennings, etc.).

 

baltimore also has a nice young base that nobody seems to know about. peter angelos will surely eff it up though.

[NCCubFan]

Not in top 31: Donnie Veal.

Not surprising since he isn't a Cub anymore.

 

Sorry...Callis meant if Veal was still in the system, he wouldn't have made the top 31.

Talk about free-falling.

[Post Count Padder]

Am I ignorant for not knowing who Starlin Castillo is?

[Outshined_One]

Am I ignorant for not knowing who Starlin Castillo is?

 

Not really. He was one of a number of young names down in the AZ League who were intriguing, but no one was 100% sure what scouts and coaches thought of him, such as whether he'd stick at SS, would develop power, etc.

 

If he starts in Peoria this coming season, then you'll be hearing a lot more about him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

And it's Starlin Castro.

[CubinNY]

And it's Starlin Castro.

That's probably why no one's ever heard of him :D

[davell]

So based on the info from BA, we basically know who 18 of the top 30 prospects are, although not in order.......Who do we think the other 12 will be that haven't been mentioned yet? My guesses are Junior Lake, Hoffpauir, Darwin Barney(these 3 in the top 15) Jovan Rosa and Matt Cerda in the top 20, and Nelson Perez, Tony Thomas, Vince Watkins, Casey Lambert, Dan McDaniel, Ryan Searle, and Christopher Carpenter rounding out the top 30..... Others I could see making the list include Dylan Johnston, Ryan Rundle, Jesus Morelli, Jose Ascanio, Hung-Wen Chen, and Yohan Gonzalez.

[Wrigley Rat]

One thing that I have noticed about BA is that their Top 30 Prospect lists has a good balance between AAA talent who is close to getting a chance in the majors and extremely young. unproven talent based on projection.

 

When I make my Top Prospect lists, I prefer to de-value some of the lesser AAA talent mainly because WYSIWYG and there is little projectibility left. I also prefer to rank the unproven prospects lower than BA since they have yet to prove themselves in any way. For me, a Hak-ju Lee is ~20% lower on my list than BA's. And a Nate Spears is ~50% lower.

 

That being said, I would rank a lefty relief pitcher like a Casey Lambert much higher than BA, because I feel that even a RP who helps the big league club out in the future is more valuable than a player who has proven to be average in AAA or a rookie ball player with a big upside but no proof.

[Guest]

So based on the info from BA, we basically know who 18 of the top 30 prospects are, although not in order.......Who do we think the other 12 will be that haven't been mentioned yet? My guesses are Junior Lake, Hoffpauir, Darwin Barney(these 3 in the top 15) Jovan Rosa and Matt Cerda in the top 20, and Nelson Perez, Tony Thomas, Vince Watkins, Casey Lambert, Dan McDaniel, Ryan Searle, and Christopher Carpenter rounding out the top 30..... Others I could see making the list include Dylan Johnston, Ryan Rundle, Jesus Morelli, Jose Ascanio, Hung-Wen Chen, and Yohan Gonzalez.

 

I doubt Jesus Morelli (too far away), Yohan Gonzalez (Callis touted Antigua over the other DSL teen pitchers but then said Antigua didn't make the cut) or Nelson Perez (see quote below) made it.

 

Q: Justin from Nashville, TN asks:

What do you think of Nelson Perez? He seemed to be one of the big breakout guys in Rookie ball this year and got some rave reviews, but how worked up can you be about an older player in Mesa without much patience?

 

A: Jim Callis: That's Perez in a nutshell. He's intriguing, but let's see how he performs against more advanced pitching.

[CubColtPacer]

Since the Pie thread is locked and I really don't think this deserves it's own thread, I'll throw this bit by Callis on Henry Williamson in here:

 

Jim, what can you tell us about Henry Williamson, just acquired by the Cubs for Pie?

 

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:06 PM ET ) Strong arm, big frame, some potential but a long way from reaching it. The Cubs have done a masterful job recently of getting previously obscure minor leaguers in minor deals (Kevin Hart, Jose Ceda, to name two), so maybe Williamson will turn into something.

[Cubswin11]

Keith Law just came out with his minor league ratings, but you have to have insider to see where the Cubs are. Does anyone have insider and know where the Cubs rank? And can you summarize what he said?

[Guest]

I don't have insider access but I heard Keith Law also ranked the Cubs system at 27.

[the splendid splinter]

Law said 27, it was mostly due to the drafts which included 2005 which he stated "the cubs may not have a big leauger from the 05 draft. So like alot of people have been saying that the 2003 to 2005 drafts were very thin and to couple that with lost picks of 2,3,4 in 2006 and 2 in 2007 it makes for a thin system, its lucky what we have when you consider there's not one pick except for Mitch Atkins that makes anyones top 10 lists from the 2003 to 2005.

[the splendid splinter]

Imagine this, of these players, you have a total of one month of major league baseball.

Christensen, Brownlie, Montanez, Pawelek, Harvey and Doparik. All 1st rounders or close to.

[JGalt73]

Keith Law's top 5 Cubs:

1. Josh Vitters, 3B

2. Jay Jackson, RHP

3. Jeff Samardzija, RHP

4. Andrew Cashner, RHP

5. Esmailin Caridad, RHP

 

Also, Vitters is ranked #14 in baseball by Law!

 

Vitters started the year slow due to a hand injury, ended up returning to short-season ball, and hit everything in sight. He has an easy, smooth, quick swing that would be that classic "sweet" left-hander's swing if it wasn't for the fact that he hits right-handed. He doesn't have great loft in his swing, but is strong and makes extremely hard contact; he led the Northwest League in doubles at age 19 and as he fills out a little bit, some of those will go over (or through) the wall. He's fringe-average at third base; he has plenty of arm and his footwork is improving, although he's not likely to ever be plus over there. If there's a concern, it's the very low walk total; he's not a hacker or even impatient, but is very aggressive, and that works as long as he's ahead of the pitchers and can make so much solid contact. If his patience doesn't improve and he doesn't continue to hit .320-plus, his ceiling will start to drop. If the patience comes, he's a potential No. 3 hitter who'll hit plenty of doubles and 25-plus home runs with a high average.

[Guest]

Houston's farm system looks like General Sherman marched through it, then turned around and marched through it again just to be sure the job was done.

 

:rotfl:

[SouthSideRyan]

People need to stop saying Vitters was 19 last season.

[RyneSandberg]

Surprise Surprise only two cubs in the top 100: Vitters and Jay Jackson

 

1-25 is a free view, the rest you must be an insider for

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3840355

[Guest]

Surprise Surprise only two cubs in the top 100: Vitters and Jay Jackson

 

1-25 is a free view, the rest you must be an insider for

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3840355

 

Pedro Alvarez not in the top 25 seems a bit ridiculous (especially with 08 draftees Buster Posey, Tim Beckham, Justin Smoak, Eric Hosmer and Brett Wallace all making it in the top 25).

 

And Posey at 8 is too high for my tastes.

[jersey cubs fan]

RANK PLAYER POS. ORGANIZATION '08 RANK #AGE

38 Pedro Alvarez 3B/1B Pittsburgh Pirates

TOP '08 LEVEL: N/A IE 21

Alvarez needs to consider hiring a publicist, as just about every story about him over the past seven months has been unflattering, from the minor scandal when he and his agent, Scott Boras, called the Pirates out for violating the terms of the CBA and then settled for a $250,000 dollar increase in Alvarez's signing bonus to recent reports that he was out of shape in the Pirates' mini-camp and is already experiencing tendinitis in his knees. Conditioning has always been an issue for Alvarez dating back to his freshman summer with Team USA, and it's the main reason he's likely to end up at first base.

 

At the plate, Alvarez is strong and has a high-effort swing that produces big power and lots of hard contact, mostly to right and right-center, but he has struggled with left-handers. In general, he didn't make enough contact in the SEC after coming back from a broken hamate (hand) bone. His setup, with an extremely wide base that doesn't give him much chance to adjust to offspeed stuff, isn't helping, but it's fixable. Plus, you can't teach the kind of raw power Alvarez has.

 

The bonus kerfuffle cost him any chance to play in 2008, even in winter ball, so all we have now are year-old scouting reports and questions about his conditioning and commitment. He could be in the top 10 next year with a full, healthy season in which he addresses concerns about his ability to make contact.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Caridad? Did he put that in there as an easter egg to make sure people were paying attention?

[jersey cubs fan]

RANK PLAYER POS. ORGANIZATION '08 RANK #AGE

98 Jay Jackson RHP Chicago Cubs

TOP '08 LEVEL: A (Daytona) IE 21

 

Call this one a hunch. Jackson may end up a starter, but if the Cubs choose to leave him in the pen, he could shoot to the majors this year or early next year. Jackson was the No. 1 starter at Furman last spring while also playing the outfield, leading the Paladins in slugging percentage, and earned notice in the spring with a 91-94 mph fastball and a potential out-pitch slider in the mid-80s with good tilt and a very sharp, late break. The consensus on him before the draft was that he was a reliever in pro ball, which allowed the Cubs to grab him in the ninth round, but that is already looking like grand larceny. Jackson does throw a curve and changeup if he's left in the rotation, but neither is an average pitch and his height (maybe 6-1) means he doesn't get any downhill plane on his fastball, which may make him too homer-prone to be a starter. If he can improve his fastball command just a little bit, however, he has a chance to be a dominant short reliever in the majors.

[Guest]

Thanks, jersey.

[TruffleShuffle]

One thing that I have noticed about BA is that their Top 30 Prospect lists has a good balance between AAA talent who is close to getting a chance in the majors and extremely young. unproven talent based on projection.

 

When I make my Top Prospect lists, I prefer to de-value some of the lesser AAA talent mainly because WYSIWYG and there is little projectibility left. I also prefer to rank the unproven prospects lower than BA since they have yet to prove themselves in any way. For me, a Hak-ju Lee is ~20% lower on my list than BA's. And a Nate Spears is ~50% lower.

 

That being said, I would rank a lefty relief pitcher like a Casey Lambert much higher than BA, because I feel that even a RP who helps the big league club out in the future is more valuable than a player who has proven to be average in AAA or a rookie ball player with a big upside but no proof.

 

i don't think BA will rank a guy who's average in AAA. if a guy is at AAA and it looks like he is likely to be a utility infielder, 4th outfielder, back of the rotation pitcher or long reliever at the big league level, that (to me) is still more valuable than a guy like kyler burke who could be a very good regular if he reached his ceiling, but is probably a 50-to-1 shot to pan out.