Cubs Top Prospects Lists (BP, John Sickels, BA, Keith Law)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8296

 

Five-Star Prospects

1. Josh Vitters, 3B

Four-Star Prospects

2. Jeff Samardzija, RHP

3. Jose Ceda, RHP

Three-Star Prospects

4. Hak-Ju Lee, SS

5. Andrew Cashner, RHP

6. Tyler Colvin, OF

7. Dae-Eun Rhee, LHP

8. Ryan Flaherty,

Two-Star Prospects

9. Welington Castillo, C

10. Donald Veal, LHP

11. Micah Hoffpauir, 1B

 

Just Missed: Matt Cedra, INF; Jay Jackson, RHP; Logan Watkins, INF

 

Ranking Challenges: The Cubs are a very tough team to rank. That said, the top three prospects on my initial snapshot never moved, and you see them exactly where they started. Everything after that is a bit of a mess however, as one could jumble up the players ranked fourth through eleventh in any order and make some kind of reasonable argument for all.

[SouthSideRyan]

Wow, I disagree with a lot of that.

[Guest]

Anyone with a BP subscription want to shed some more light on what Goldstein says (besides not knowing how to spell Matt Cerda's name and what arm Dae-Eun Rhee throws with)?

 

O:)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The justification for ranking Colvin ahead of Castillo in any manner aside from "how well they hit left handed" is a mystery to me.

[Hall7810]

Colvin:

 

Year in Review: A toolsy outfielder, Colvin had a mixed big of a season, showing improved plate discipline but otherwise struggling offensively before he stopped walking in the second-half... and started hitting.

The Good: Despite his struggles, Colvin has tools and athleticism that are hard to give up on. He has a quick bat, average power, speed that's a tick above-average, and a plus arm. The Cubs rave about his work ethic and makeup, and they still see plenty of projection in him.

The Bad: Colvin is still working on his pitch recognition. He tried to become a more patient hitter early in the year, but he really didn't produce until after the All-Star break when he went back to his hacking approach, drawing just eight walks in 179 at-bats while slugging .514. His defense in center is a bit shaky due to poor jumps and routes, and he may fit better long-term in a corner, which will require even greater offensive growth.

 

Castillo:

Year in Review: The Cubs' top catching prospect got off to a slow start in the Florida State League, but showed life with the bat and continued plus defense after a promotion to Double-A Tennessee.

The Good: Castillo has solid skills, hitting for a decent average with gap power, and projecting for double-digit home-run totals annually. He has excellent arm strength and a quick release, which led to his gunning down 43 percent of attempted basestealers at Double-A.

The Bad: Offensively, Castillo is a bit of a hacker who can be prone to chasing pitches in the dirt. He'll never be a big-time power threat, and he runs like a catcher. He can be a sloppy receiver and needs to improve his footwork behind the plate

[Hall7810]

I should also note, his "sleeper prospect" is Junior Lake.

[Guest]

If I could bother you, Hall7810...what did Kevin Goldstein say about Hak-Ju Lee?

 

Thanks!

[Hall7810]

No bother, I'm just unsure as to what encroaches on copyright issues. I trust you'll pare it back if needed.

The Good: One international scout not with the Cubs insists that if Lee was American, he would have been a top 20 pick in the draft, and would rank only behind the first overall pick, Tim Beckham, among high school shortstops. He's a long, loose, and fluid athlete with a quick, direct swing and a body that projects for possibly average power down the road. He has plenty of defensive skills, beginning with good instincts and an above-average arm, and his plus-plus speed provides a great deal of range while also making him dangerous on the basepaths.

The Bad: Lee is still raw, especially on the offensive side, as he has very little exposure to pro-level pitching, especially breaking stuff. In many ways, we don't know what we don't know about him because of such limited evidence, and the holes in his game are yet to be discovered.

 

Perfect world projection: An All-Star SS...above average, but not a superstar.

[nilodnayr]

Anyone with a BP subscription want to shed some more light on what Goldstein says (besides not knowing how to spell Matt Cerda's name and what arm Dae-Eun Rhee throws with)?

 

O:)

 

They have Rhee as a RHP

 

I'll sume it up and give their best case/workst case outlooks

 

Vitters: best pure hitter in the NWL, amazing plate coverage, worked on his Defense enough for the Cubs to think he can be an average fielder at third, best case: all star 3B, batting titles and solid power, worst case power and defense dont progress leading to a mismatch of skills and position

 

Shark: nothing new, can dominate, struggles with consistancy, sucked his entire pro career except for august, best case: stuff to be a closer or front line starter but too inconsistant, worst case: August was a fluke, his track record is awful

 

Ceda: classic closer, fastball/power slider, overthrows sometimes leading to control issues, started putting on soft weight this year, best case: dominant closer, worst case: closer/set up man

 

Lee: best teenage player out of Korea, would have been top 20 pick in the draft, better than any american HS SS except Beckham, long, loose, quick, athletic, projects to have average power, plenty of defense, good instincts, good arm, good range, plus-plus speed, obviously hes raw and hasn't been exposed to pro pitching, best case: all star SS, not superstar, but above average offense and defense, worst case: a lot can go wrong between now and the majors

 

Cashner: off the radar before this year, fastball has good speed (sits in mid 90s, hits upper 90s consistantly) and good control, with late sink, also throws a wipe-out power slider, average curve and strong change up, deceptive delivery, ran into control problems after signing (duh), fell apart mechanically and was overthrowing, best case: power starter with big time Ks, worst case: late inning relief

 

Blerg, work calls, I'll finish the rest when I can.

[Guest]

Thanks guys!

[Guest]

Clearly I've been underrating Hak-Ju Lee thus far (of course I was only basing him on bonus size and a few sentences I've read on him).

[nilodnayr]

Clearly I've been underrating Hak-Ju Lee thus far (of course I was only basing him on bonus size and a few sentences I've read on him).

 

 

What was his bonus? BPro said seven figures...hard to underrate a guy signing out of korea for seven figures.

[Guest]

Clearly I've been underrating Hak-Ju Lee thus far (of course I was only basing him on bonus size and a few sentences I've read on him).

 

 

What was his bonus? BPro said seven figures...hard to underrate a guy signing out of korea for seven figures.

 

BA had him at a $725,000 which doesn't scream top 5 prospect (even in this system) when you're getting him in a free agent market. Of course, the Pacific Rim isn't as competitive as Latin America.

[jersey cubs fan]

Colvin:

 

Year in Review: A toolsy outfielder, Colvin had a mixed big of a season, showing improved plate discipline but otherwise struggling offensively before he stopped walking in the second-half... and started hitting.

The Good: Despite his struggles, Colvin has tools and athleticism that are hard to give up on. He has a quick bat, average power, speed that's a tick above-average, and a plus arm.

 

This begs the question, how is a guy labeled as toolsy when none of his tools can be describted as anything but above average? Okay, he's got a "plus" arm, big deal. Remove the bolded comments and none of his description comes close to positive. Quick bat, average power, barely above average speed and a plus arm that struggles with the bat sounds like a career minor leaguer and potential 5 OF someday.

[Wrigley Rat]

I somewhat agree with his rankings. Of his top 10, I have nine of them in my top 13. I have Hak-Ju Lee 23rd due to a lack of experience. I think it's a bit early to have Cerda and Watkins so high as well, although putting them on a top 20 list is understandable due to the lack of depth in our system.

 

I think it's clear that the Cubs have 5-7 tradeable players in the minors. After that, there only seem to be throw-ins or players a team would take a chance on. After Vitters, Ceda, Colvin, Cashner, Rhee, Castillo, and maybe Veal no one else (in the minors) has much chance to be a big piece of a trade (Samardzija is in the majors).

[nilodnayr]

Clearly I've been underrating Hak-Ju Lee thus far (of course I was only basing him on bonus size and a few sentences I've read on him).

 

 

What was his bonus? BPro said seven figures...hard to underrate a guy signing out of korea for seven figures.

 

BA had him at a $725,000 which doesn't scream top 5 prospect (even in this system) when you're getting him in a free agent market. Of course, the Pacific Rim isn't as competitive as Latin America.

 

Ha, and $725,000 doesnt scream seven figures either :)

[nilodnayr]

Anyone with a BP subscription want to shed some more light on what Goldstein says (besides not knowing how to spell Matt Cerda's name and what arm Dae-Eun Rhee throws with)?

 

O:)

 

They have Rhee as a RHP

 

I'll sume it up and give their best case/workst case outlooks

 

Vitters: best pure hitter in the NWL, amazing plate coverage, worked on his Defense enough for the Cubs to think he can be an average fielder at third, best case: all star 3B, batting titles and solid power, worst case power and defense dont progress leading to a mismatch of skills and position

 

Shark: nothing new, can dominate, struggles with consistancy, sucked his entire pro career except for august, best case: stuff to be a closer or front line starter but too inconsistant, worst case: August was a fluke, his track record is awful

 

Ceda: classic closer, fastball/power slider, overthrows sometimes leading to control issues, started putting on soft weight this year, best case: dominant closer, worst case: closer/set up man

 

Lee: best teenage player out of Korea, would have been top 20 pick in the draft, better than any american HS SS except Beckham, long, loose, quick, athletic, projects to have average power, plenty of defense, good instincts, good arm, good range, plus-plus speed, obviously hes raw and hasn't been exposed to pro pitching, best case: all star SS, not superstar, but above average offense and defense, worst case: a lot can go wrong between now and the majors

 

Cashner: off the radar before this year, fastball has good speed (sits in mid 90s, hits upper 90s consistantly) and good control, with late sink, also throws a wipe-out power slider, average curve and strong change up, deceptive delivery, ran into control problems after signing (duh), fell apart mechanically and was overthrowing, best case: power starter with big time Ks, worst case: late inning relief

 

Blerg, work calls, I'll finish the rest when I can.

 

Ok, back...

 

Colvin:already covered...best case 300 hitter, 20-25 HR, 15 SB and badnews kills himself, worst case: 4th OF

 

Rhee: smooth, easily repeatable mechanics, average velocity, great command, plus changeup, strong makeup, ineffective slider an dcutter, TJS obviously, cubs think he'll have a full recovery. Best case: solid mid-rotation starter, Worst Case: doesn't recover from TJS.

 

Flaherty: projects to hit for average and a bit of power, sound swing, natural loft, good strike zone judgement, good fundamentals and instincts, big for a middle infielder, average arm, will be an offensive second baseman. Best case: 15-18 HRs, all out style fan favorite 2b, Worst case: utility guy

 

Castillo:already covered, Best case: solid but unspectacular starting catcher, worst case: defensive backup without a bat to start

 

Veal: another disappointing year, still has size and still is a lefty, still sits at 90 and touches mid 90s, plus curve, bad mechanics, loses focus, Best case: solid starter, worst case: LOOGY

 

Hoffpauir: we know him no need to describe him, best case: crummy team's stating first baseman, worst case: lefty power pinch hitter.

[Guest]

Thanks, nilo.

[Guest]

Arizona Phil's top 15 prospects: http://thecubreporter.com/2008/11/14/2009-cubs-top-15-prospects

 

I'll say I've never been the biggest fan of his analysis because of what he values in a prospect (he had Fuld in his top 10 last year) but he's obviously seen these guys more than most of us.

 

1. Jeff Samardzija

2. Josh Vitters

3. Andrew Cashner

4. Welington Castillo

5. Ryan Flaherty

6. Kevin Hart (guh)

7. Tyler Colvin

8. Jay Jackson

9. Micah Hoffpauir

10. Esmailin Caridad

11. Mitch Atkins

12. Donnie Veal

13. Jovan Rosa

14. Brandon Guyer

15. Dan McDaniel

[Guest]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/29/675375/chicago-cubs-top-20-prospe

 

John Sickels' Top 20 Cubs Prospects:

 

1) Josh Vitters, 3B, Grade B+: Hopefully the home run power should start to come in 2009. Great contact hitting skills and still very young.

2) Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Grade B: I have no idea what to expect here. Could be great, could be horrible, track record very erratic.

3) Ryan Flaherty, SS, Grade B: Looks like a solid all-around player to me.

4) Andrew Cashner, RHP, Grade B-: High ceiling due to fastball and slider, command issues may slow progress.

5) Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Grade B-: Scouting reports look great, but want to see some numbers before ranking higher.

6) Jay Jackson, RHP, Grade B-: I LOVE this guy…good athlete, former philosophy major, throws hard, throws strikes, great pro debut. I think he is underrated by other sources.

7) Tyler Colvin, OF, Grade C+: Still worried about his plate discipline.

8) Welington Castillo, C, Grade C+: Good glove, hits well in flashes, maybe a Miguel Olivo type?

9) Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP, Grade C+: Would rank higher if not for Tommy John.

10) Aaron Shafer, RHP, Grade C+: Wichita State product with sharp command. Elbow injury cost him velocity.

11) Starlin Castro, SS, Grade C+: Intriguing toolsy infielder had strong AZL debut. A sleeper.

12) Junior Lake, SS, Grade C+: Intriguing toolsy infielder had strong AZL debut. A sleeper.

13) Dan McDaniel, RHP, Grade C+: Lots of strikeouts and grounders at Boise. Command an issue. Could rank as high as 10th.

14) Micah Hoffpauir, 1B, Grade C: Too old to rank higher but he has a major league bat. Where does he play?

15) Esmailin Caridad, RHP, Grade C: Low strikeout rate a concern, but I think he can do well in relief.

16) Don Veal, LHP, Grade C: Stock has fallen massively due to command and mechanical issues. Not protected for Rule 5, which tells you a lot.

17) Josh Kroeger, OF, Grade C: He finally learned some plate discipline and has done well in Triple-A. Getting old for a prospect.

18) Tony Thomas, 2B, Grade C: Strike zone judgment collapsed in Florida State League.

19) Chris Carpenter, RHP, Grade C: Command problems and poor health record reduce stock, but he throws very hard and has upside if he can stay away from doctors.

20) Mitch Atkins, RHP, Grade C: Possibly a fifth starter type if he can sharpen command more.

 

Others include Darwin Barney, Justin Bristow, Matt Cerda, Hung-Wen Chen, Dumas Garcia, Brandon Guyer, Josh Harrison, Dylan Johnston, Casey Lambert, Alex Maestri, Jovan Rosa, Drew Rundle, Marquez Smith, Logan Watkins, and Ty Wright. Most of these guys could rank anywhere from 14-20 depending on what you are looking for.

[SouthSideRyan]

6) Jay Jackson, RHP, Grade B-: I LOVE this guy…good athlete, former philosophy major, throws hard, throws strikes, great pro debut. I think he is underrated by other sources.

 

He was a philosophy major too? Gotta change my pants.

[CubinNY]

Is Jose Ceda the guy the Cubs traded for Kevin Gregg?

[Wrigley Rat]

Is Jose Ceda the guy the Cubs traded for Kevin Gregg?

yes

[CubinNY]

Is Jose Ceda the guy the Cubs traded for Kevin Gregg?

yes

I was afraid of that.

[ELCABALLO45]

Jeff Samardzija is ranked 50th on the MLB.com's Top 50.