6 (7 for MIL) games left.

[The Voice of Reason]

The Cubs have a 91.1% chance of making the playoffs

 

Brewers = 8.9%

 

That was before today, at least I am assuming it will go down after today.

 

Cubs = 97.4

Brewers = 2.6

 

Wow, it's really that much in our favor now?

 

I could see the crew ripping off, say 5-2 in their last 7 at home. Cubs would need to win 2 games, on the road. That's losing 2/3 in each series.

 

Ok, it's definitely in our favor big time but I would have thought more like 80%.

 

If you played the season out 100 times from this point, wouldn't you think a team thats 3.5 games up with 6 to play would win it more than 80 times? Remember the computer doesn't know that a few days ago it was tied. The Cubs could have been 20 games up in mid-August and now 3.5 up. Either way, the odds that a team has managed to be good enough amass a 3.5 game lead through 156 games will be able to win enough to make the playoffs an extremely high perentage of the time

 

In other words, the computer doesn't realize it's the Cubs.

 

Correct. To paraphrase that tired old Berra cliche "It ain't over til it's over, especially when you're talking about the Cubs." Despite what history says below, I'm not prematuring anything, my champagne remains on ice.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3033679

 

And no team since World War II has blown a lead as large as the Cubs' lead with a week left. The biggest lead to disappear in the final week in all that time: three games, by the 1962 Dodgers and 1951 Dodgers -- both to the Giants, and both requiring memorable playoffs after the regular season because the teams finished those seasons tied. (Go ahead. Cue that Bobby Thomson home run call one more time. Does anyone get tired of that one -- except Ralph Branca?)

[CubinNY]

The Cubs have a 91.1% chance of making the playoffs

 

Brewers = 8.9%

 

That was before today, at least I am assuming it will go down after today.

 

Cubs = 97.4

Brewers = 2.6

 

Wow, it's really that much in our favor now?

 

I could see the crew ripping off, say 5-2 in their last 7 at home. Cubs would need to win 2 games, on the road. That's losing 2/3 in each series.

 

Ok, it's definitely in our favor big time but I would have thought more like 80%.

 

If you played the season out 100 times from this point, wouldn't you think a team thats 3.5 games up with 6 to play would win it more than 80 times? Remember the computer doesn't know that a few days ago it was tied. The Cubs could have been 20 games up in mid-August and now 3.5 up. Either way, the odds that a team has managed to be good enough amass a 3.5 game lead through 156 games will be able to win enough to make the playoffs an extremely high perentage of the time

 

In other words, the computer doesn't realize it's the Cubs.

 

Correct. To paraphrase that tired old Berra cliche "It ain't over til it's over, especially when you're talking about the Cubs." Despite what history says below, I'm not prematuring anything, my champagne can remain on ice.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3033679

 

And no team since World War II has blown a lead as large as the Cubs' lead with a week left. The biggest lead to disappear in the final week in all that time: three games, by the 1962 Dodgers and 1951 Dodgers -- both to the Giants, and both requiring memorable playoffs after the regular season because the teams finished those seasons tied. (Go ahead. Cue that Bobby Thomson home run call one more time. Does anyone get tired of that one -- except Ralph Branca?)

If any team can do it, we all know it will be the Cubs.

[bukie]

Technically, the Mets blew a 4 game lead in the wildcard to the Giants with a week left in 1998 (and the Cubs actually led the wildcard by 5 games with 8 to play). It just doesn't count because the Cubs did win the playoff game over the Giants.

[3Dog]

To paraphrase that tired old Berra cliche "It ain't over til it's over"

 

Just to go off on a quick tangent - I picked up BP's new book of the same title yesterday. Anyone read it yet? Is it good?

[halplm]

to be perfectly honest, if the Cubs can't go 4-2 to finish out this season, they don't deserve the spot.

 

That said, it's nearly impossible to win 7 highly intense games in a row in the last week of the season, so the Brewers are going to drop 1 or 2, which means the Cubs only need to go 3-3 or 2-4.

 

If they can't do THAT... then they REALLY don't deserve the spot.

 

To be perfectly honest, I'm more concerned with Z's arm, and setting up the rotation for that first series, than I am about the division.

 

Granted, I seriously hope the CUBS aren't thinking that way yet :).

[circlecitycub]

I think the best the Brewers can hope for is to go 5-2 the rest of the way. The Padres are fighting for their postseason berth and I see no less than a split. I think the most likely scenarios is that the Cards even steal one giving them a 4-3 finish.

 

Either way that leaves it up to the Cubs to win 1 or 2 games. I feel very comfortable with that.

 

In fact if the Brewers lose tonight they'll be 4 games back with 6 to play. They're good but not that good.

[FergieJ31]

The Cubs have a 91.1% chance of making the playoffs

 

Brewers = 8.9%

 

That was before today, at least I am assuming it will go down after today.

 

Cubs = 97.4

Brewers = 2.6

 

Wow, it's really that much in our favor now?

 

I could see the crew ripping off, say 5-2 in their last 7 at home. Cubs would need to win 2 games, on the road. That's losing 2/3 in each series.

 

Ok, it's definitely in our favor big time but I would have thought more like 80%.

 

Going strictly by a conservative even odds assumption for all remaining Cubs & Brewers games, the Cubs have a 91.0% chance of winning:

 

Set aside the baseballprospectus method of calculating odds for a moment:

 

There are 13 games left, and for the Brewers to win outright at least 10 must go their way, or 9 to draw even with the Cubs for a tie-breaker.

 

Assume even odds in all contests, prob = 1/2.

 

Out of 2^13 scenarios (8192), the Brewers win outright in just C(13,10) + C(13,11) + C(13, 12) + C(13,13) = 286 + 78 + 13 + 1 = 378 scenarios, or 4.6%. Out of the C(13,9) = 715 tie scenarios assume the Brewers win half of these, giving an extra 715/2 = 357.5 winning scenarios.

 

378 Brewers win outright

357.5 Tie, Brewers win tie-breaker

---------------------

735.5, or 8.98% chance of Brewers winning.

 

I don't think p=1/2 is a bad default assumption for each remaining game.

 

I like the Cubs' chances but this thing ain't over yet.

[Ender]

I think the best the Brewers can hope for is to go 5-2 the rest of the way. The Padres are fighting for their postseason berth and I see no less than a split. I think the most likely scenarios is that the Cards even steal one giving them a 4-3 finish.

 

Either way that leaves it up to the Cubs to win 1 or 2 games. I feel very comfortable with that.

 

In fact if the Brewers lose tonight they'll be 4 games back with 6 to play. They're good but not that good.

 

It would not surprise me if the Brewers go 7-0 the rest of the way. Cameron and Bradley are both out so the Padres have next to no offense left. Young has been bad since his injury and I still don't think Peavy will pitch in the series.

 

Now I'm not saying to expect 7-0 but it will not be a surprise if it happens either. The problem is I think even if the Brewers go 7-0 the Cubs still take the division.

[CubmanPi]

I think the best the Brewers can hope for is to go 5-2 the rest of the way. The Padres are fighting for their postseason berth and I see no less than a split. I think the most likely scenarios is that the Cards even steal one giving them a 4-3 finish.

 

Either way that leaves it up to the Cubs to win 1 or 2 games. I feel very comfortable with that.

 

In fact if the Brewers lose tonight they'll be 4 games back with 6 to play. They're good but not that good.

 

It would not surprise me if the Brewers go 7-0 the rest of the way. Cameron and Bradley are both out so the Padres have next to no offense left. Young has been bad since his injury and I still don't think Peavy will pitch in the series.

 

Now I'm not saying to expect 7-0 but it will not be a surprise if it happens either. The problem is I think even if the Brewers go 7-0 the Cubs still take the division.

I'm going to nitpick the wording here, because I think winning 7 in a row would be a surprise for pretty much any team, especially when that stretch is set to begin immediately following three consecutive losses. It's my no means out of the realm of possibility, but it would most certainly be a surprise were it to actually happen.

[Soul]

I think the best the Brewers can hope for is to go 5-2 the rest of the way. The Padres are fighting for their postseason berth and I see no less than a split. I think the most likely scenarios is that the Cards even steal one giving them a 4-3 finish.

 

Either way that leaves it up to the Cubs to win 1 or 2 games. I feel very comfortable with that.

 

In fact if the Brewers lose tonight they'll be 4 games back with 6 to play. They're good but not that good.

 

It would not surprise me if the Brewers go 7-0 the rest of the way. Cameron and Bradley are both out so the Padres have next to no offense left. Young has been bad since his injury and I still don't think Peavy will pitch in the series.

 

Now I'm not saying to expect 7-0 but it will not be a surprise if it happens either. The problem is I think even if the Brewers go 7-0 the Cubs still take the division.

I'm going to nitpick the wording here, because I think winning 7 in a row would be a surprise for pretty much any team, especially when that stretch is set to begin immediately following three consecutive losses. It's my no means out of the realm of possibility, but it would most certainly be a surprise were it to actually happen.

 

That would be an amazing feat by the Brewers.

 

I never say never. They're at home, playing for their lives. Nobody knows what that can do to a team. Might help 'em, might hurt 'em.

 

I wouldn't be suprised to see 'em rape the Cards 3 in a row. That would continue to put some pressure on us, especially if we drop the first game in Florida.

 

3 games up can evaporate to 1 game up pretty quickly, and then all the numbers we're looking at right now change dramatically.

 

So it's not over, the Cubs still need to win their games. Cannot let up at all. Not one bit.

[Andy]

I think it's safe to say playing under pressure hurts Milwaukee. They have been falling off since almost the minute the Cubs showed any signs of life.

[Schwarber Fan]

3.0 games ahead with 6 to play - don't worry about the Brewers... just win!

[Buford T Justice]

 

http://www.mlbmagicnumbers.com/magicimage/Cubs.png

 

How accurate is this? It says the Brewers magic number is 11.

[XZero771679666304]

The Brewers may well sweep the Cards, but not the Padres.

[Brian]

 

http://www.mlbmagicnumbers.com/magicimage/Cubs.png

 

How accurate is this? It says the Brewers magic number is 11.

 

Sounds about right the Brewers need a combination of 11 of their wins and Cubs loses

[Soul]

Yeah, I'm getting perturbed at this B.S. now.

 

If we can't win at least 3 games this week against these teams then we don't deserve the playoffs anyway. I mean this is cotton candy, look at this crap.

 

Had enough of this hiding and cowering. It's a 3 game lead with 6 left and we've got tomato cans lined up in front of us. Seriously, just win some damn games and forget everything else. Otherwise go home.

[inari]

I really thought the Cards would win tonight with Wainwright on the mound. Oh well... hopefully they can sneak off with a game.

[Soul]

Me too, but the Crew won't get away with easy games when SD comes to town playing for their lives. That's going to be a knock-down drag out series.

 

We just need to win games against teams who are busy scheduling their Tee Times. Seriously, no one to blame, no excuses. Just win.

[brinoch]

There's no difference in the situation tonight. Just win four games. Ignore the Brewers. I can't believe people are up in arms because the Brewers won. They are irrelevant. All that matters is the Cubs going out and winning games.

[Guest]

2 of 3, then 2 of 3, then playoffs.

 

I kind of hope the Brewers keep winning so there's no time for a let down.

[NCCubFan]

I can't believe people are up in arms because the Brewers won.

Me neither. I thought most of us expected the Brewers to beat up on the hapless deadbirds anyway. This is anything but a surprise.

[XZero771679666304]

FWIW, on ESPN tonight they said no team has come from 3 down in the last week to make the playoffs since WWII, and no team has come back from more than 1 1/2 down in the last week to make the postseason since the realignment.

 

God knows if a team could facilitate it, it would be the Cubs. The odds are stacked in our favor, but I'm not counting my chickens until the team storms the field.

[XZero771679666304]

2 of 3, then 2 of 3, then playoffs.

 

I kind of hope the Brewers keep winning so there's no time for a let down.

 

Hey, if it were at all possible I'd like to watch Saturday and Sunday's games without my bottle of Pepto.

[CuseCubFan69]

2 of 3, then 2 of 3, then playoffs.

 

I kind of hope the Brewers keep winning so there's no time for a let down.

 

Why stop winning 2 out of 3 once the playoffs start? :D

[CuseCubFan69]

FWIW, on ESPN tonight they said no team has come from 3 down in the last week to make the playoffs since WWII, and no team has come back from more than 1 1/2 down in the last week to make the postseason since the realignment.

 

God knows if a team could facilitate it, it would be the Cubs. The odds are stacked in our favor, but I'm not counting my chickens until the team storms the field.

 

Between you and your chickens and soul and his tomatoes I'm getting pretty hungry. Let's stop counting them and get ready to make a celebration meal! So, I'm going to add....I'm keeping my beer on ice until they finally clinch this thing.