Getting sick of Juan Pierre.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

 

Conjecture my foot. Try running in sub 50 degree weather opposed to 80 degree weather. It's a big difference, especially when you are standing in the field all game or sitting in the dugout. If you don't move around a lot, your muscles tend to get tight. Tight muscles slow you down and increase the chances of an injury.

 

I play hockey...thank God they keep the ice rink at a balmy 80, otherwise I dont think I would be able to move out there.

 

Who said you wouldn't be able to move? I just said that can slow you up some. In Pierre's case, that little bit of footspeed gets him another hit or two here and there.

 

So you're saying that you can run just as fast in cold weather as you can warm? Temperature has absolutely no effect on footspeed? Years of track data disagrees with you, but if it makes you happy to disagree with that, go ahead.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

And maybe when the weather is a bit warmer he will hit the ball truer off the bat and it will get to the infielder, whos arm is a bit warmer so he can throw the ball better...seems like quite a bit of conjecture.

 

Conjecture my foot. Try running in sub 50 degree weather opposed to 80 degree weather. It's a big difference, especially when you are standing in the field all game or sitting in the dugout. If you don't move around a lot, your muscles tend to get tight. Tight muscles slow you down and increase the chances of an injury.

 

What about nilo's point about the fielder? By the same logic isn't his arm colder and tighter, leading to slower throws?

 

We're talking about 1/2 a step or less from home to first. That's well within the realm of influence. Substantially changing Pierre's arm speed to a noticeable level b/c of weather is a pretty tough argument to make. They don't exactly keep radar gun readings on centerfielders. I would guess his velocity does suffer some small amount in cold weather unless his arm is nice and warmed up. It's just not a noticeable difference.

 

Why do they keep track of temperature and weather conditions in track? Because it affects results to a measurable level in those cases.

 

I meant the infielder's arm whos throwing the ball to firstbase. They also keep track of attendance, and length of game.

 

You know what. Go out there and see if there is any effect on your performance. Convince yourself of the effect of temperature on footspeed.

[abuck1220]

 

Have you ever ran before?

 

Bad weather does have an impact.

 

i don't buy for one second that pierre's speed has been affected by the weather. sorry.

 

even if i were to buy that cold weather slows down guys to the point that it shaves 60-70 points off their OBP, i'm still not with you because it hasn't been that cold. you're acting like they've played half their games in snow.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Holy mackarel. 4 pages arguing whether or not Pierre sucks so far this season? HE SUCKS SO FAR THIS SEASON.

[bring stone back]

 

Have you ever ran before?

 

Bad weather does have an impact.

 

i don't buy for one second that pierre's speed has been affected by the weather. sorry.

 

even if i were to buy that cold weather slows down guys to the point that it shaves 60-70 points off their OBP, i'm still not with you because it hasn't been that cold. you're acting like they've played half their games in snow.

 

Did I say they played half of their games in snow? Did I say it shaves 60-70 points off his OBP? No. What I said is that weather does have an impact on a player built for speed....especially one who is from Louisiana and is used to playing in Miami.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

 

Have you ever ran before?

 

Bad weather does have an impact.

 

i don't buy for one second that pierre's speed has been affected by the weather. sorry.

 

even if i were to buy that cold weather slows down guys to the point that it shaves 60-70 points off their OBP, i'm still not with you because it hasn't been that cold. you're acting like they've played half their games in snow.

 

Did I say they played half of their games in snow? Did I say it shaves 60-70 points off his OBP? No. What I said is that weather does have an impact on a player built for speed....especially one who is from Louisiana and is used to playing in Miami.

 

Have you ever played baseball?

 

It also has an impact on the infielders born and bred in the Dominican Republic and Venezuela who have to set their feet and make a strong, accurate throw across the infield. The weather will affect more people than just Juan Pierre.

[nilodnayr]

So, IF footspeed is hampered by the cold, wouldnt it be Pierre's fault that hes not wearing compression shorts, layers, and warming up properly before and during his ABs?

[Outshined_One]

Does Pierre need to play better? Absolutely. I just don't see this as anything to worry about. A couple decent games and his numbers will start to look a whole lot better.

 

Pierre's also used to Florida at this time of the season (unless he's on the road). Big difference in climates.

 

I agree with the first part of your post for the time being. I'll be worried if he's putting the same numbers up at the end of May. I would most definitely like to see Pierre improve upon his numbers thus far this season, but we only have a small sample size to judge him by this season. There should come a point where he will begin to improve...hopefully.

 

However, considering Pierre started his career in Colorado, I'd think he would at least be used to this kind of weather early and late in the season.

 

His three year splits suggest his two worst months are June (.265/.320/.342) and April (.291/.343/.369). His performance thus far has been worse than both. However, considering his IsoD is currently at .18 and his career IsoD is .50, I'd expect his numbers to improve in the coming weeks and months.

Edited April 26, 2006 by Outshined_One

[abuck1220]

 

Have you ever ran before?

 

Bad weather does have an impact.

 

i don't buy for one second that pierre's speed has been affected by the weather. sorry.

 

even if i were to buy that cold weather slows down guys to the point that it shaves 60-70 points off their OBP, i'm still not with you because it hasn't been that cold. you're acting like they've played half their games in snow.

 

Did I say they played half of their games in snow? Did I say it shaves 60-70 points off his OBP? No. What I said is that weather does have an impact on a player built for speed....especially one who is from Louisiana and is used to playing in Miami.

 

Have you ever played baseball?

 

It also has an impact on the infielders born and bred in the Dominican Republic and Venezuela who have to set their feet and make a strong, accurate throw across the infield. The weather will affect more people than just Juan Pierre.

 

i think the bad weather cloud just permanently hovers over pierre (like pigpen in peanuts) while the rest of the players bask in 80 degree sun.

[da bears]

I wanna know how many time's Pierre's grounded out to second base. It's like he has to meet a certain quota per game. I'm really getting sick of that weak little grounder to the second baseman.

[Fred Hornkohl]

I don't get it. Pierre's not getting thrown out by half a step in half his at bats, he's just making outs all over the place.

 

in june, juan pierre is going to be so fast that he'll beat out routine groundballs to second twice a game

 

Why are you exaggerating?

 

In 650 AB, the difference between a .280 hitter and a .300 hitter is about 13 hits. Just missing an infield single every couple of games b/c your legs are cold/cramped/tight makes a big difference for a guy like Pierre.

 

The Cubs have played 4 games this year with a temperature below 50 degrees, only 1 below 40.

 

That's over 20% of our games, which isn't a negligible figure.

 

It is a figure that should be taken into account, but at the same time, this April (and winter overall) has been one of the warmest I can remember in the past few years.

 

I mean, Sunny, Lake Mendota didn't fully freeze over this year. This is the first time it's ever happened in the time I've been up at Madison and a good number of people were making a big deal out of it. The weather has really not been that bad.

 

Also, how many of those 5 games were played at Wrigley?

 

That's 4 games. They were all in Wrigley, and the CUBS won all 4.

[Rusch33]

I want to see the board when we take a 5-6 game dive this year.

 

We're winning and people are bitching. Some people just can't live with the fact, we're winning or what?

[RyCubsFan]

In 650 AB, the difference between a .280 hitter and a .300 hitter is about 13 hits. Just missing an infield single every couple of games b/c your legs are cold/cramped/tight makes a big difference for a guy like Pierre.

 

 

Do you honestly believe he's slower right now and that he'll be faster in June or July????

 

If he's so slow now, why is he 7/7 in stolen bases?

 

According to those numbers, if anythings he's faster now than he will be later in the summer...

Edited April 26, 2006 by RyCubsFan

[BigSlick]

Holy mackarel. 4 pages arguing whether or not Pierre sucks so far this season? HE SUCKS SO FAR THIS SEASON.

 

Matt Murton lead off!

 

I'm not even joking. He has the highest OBP, so why not?

[soccer10k]

In 650 AB, the difference between a .280 hitter and a .300 hitter is about 13 hits. Just missing an infield single every couple of games b/c your legs are cold/cramped/tight makes a big difference for a guy like Pierre.

 

 

Do you honestly believe he's slower right now and that he'll be faster in June or July????

 

If he's so slow now, why is he 7/7 in stolen bases?

 

According to those numbers, if anythings he's faster now than he will be later in the summer...

 

Maybe he'll be so fast in the summer that he'll be rounding second before the catcher even has the ball. Maybe in the summer they'll give him two stolen bases for one attempt so at one point he'll be 25/23.

Edited April 26, 2006 by soccer10k

[soccer10k]

I want to see the board when we take a 5-6 game dive this year.

 

We're winning and people are bitching. Some people just can't live with the fact, we're winning or what?

 

As much as I wouldn't want that to happen, at some point in will and I think half of the people are going to die.

 

I also can't wait for Pierre to have a couple good games in a row because I guarantee you I will start a "Crow Anyone?" thread.

[soccer10k]

It's early in the season and averages are easily affected by one good game or one bad game. I remember a three game stretch for Derrek Lee last year against the Dodgers and Padres when he went 3-5, 5-5, and 3-3 in consecutive games and his average rose from .363 to .389. And that was at the end of May. If Pierre even has one 4-4 game right now it's going to significantly raise his average to the point that people expect it to be. But if he follows that up with an 0fer then it's going to drop his average significantly. It's April. Let Pierre get 150 AB's. Wait until the middle to end of May to criticize him. He hasn't been very good so far but saying you are getting sick of him is ridiculous. If he's still hitting this poorly at the end of May, I'll criticize him as well.

[sunnydoo]

Not that youre going to believe all of that because its written by a "stats geek", but theres an empiracle answer to your second question.

 

you are right, i am not buying that study.

 

there are too many variables that study doesnt take into account. things like rookies/veteran status, lefty/righty matchups, the way the pitcher throws, and how hard he throws...just a ton of things that you cant quantify.

 

For instance, Mr Vargas from the Fish is 0 for 15 lifetime in giving up stolen bases. You cant honestly tell me that having a Pierre or Jones or Perez or Lee standing on 1st base jumping around and threatening to steal doesnt have an effect on his head. It not only changes the way he delivers the pitch, but may change the pitch as well. Instead of throwing a guy a breaking pitch, he might start him off with a fastball- which may in fact result in a hit.

 

Just ask Tim Hudson how he feels about giving up SBs tonight after the Lee fiasco in Beerland cost him the game.

[TruffleShuffle]

Not that youre going to believe all of that because its written by a "stats geek", but theres an empiracle answer to your second question.

 

you are right, i am not buying that study.

 

there are too many variables that study doesnt take into account. things like rookies/veteran status, lefty/righty matchups, the way the pitcher throws, and how hard he throws...just a ton of things that you cant quantify.

 

For instance, Mr Vargas from the Fish is 0 for 15 lifetime in giving up stolen bases. You cant honestly tell me that having a Pierre or Jones or Perez or Lee standing on 1st base jumping around and threatening to steal doesnt have an effect on his head. It not only changes the way he delivers the pitch, but may change the pitch as well. Instead of throwing a guy a breaking pitch, he might start him off with a fastball- which may in fact result in a hit.

 

Just ask Tim Hudson how he feels about giving up SBs tonight after the Lee fiasco in Beerland cost him the game.

 

Well, all I can say is that you and Dusty Baker have a very different view of baseball than I do.

i think the bad weather cloud just permanently hovers over pierre (like pigpen in peanuts) while the rest of the players bask in 80 degree sun.

Awesome.

[SeldomSeen]

i think the bad weather cloud just permanently hovers over pierre (like pigpen in peanuts) while the rest of the players bask in 80 degree sun.

Awesome.

Agreed. It's always better to keep beating a dead horse in order to continue ridiculing another poster.

[Elrhino]

How do you really quantify the effect that Pierre has on the basepaths when the pitcher starts paying more attention to him than the hitter at the plate with your silly little numbers?

 

This brings up a question I have ....

 

In a game earlier this season, I can't remember the exact one ... Pierre led off the game bunting for a single. Walker makes a quick out without advancing Pierre. DLee comes up to bat and quickly gets behind 1-2 in the count. The pitcher starts throwing over to first every other pitch to hold Pierre on, knowing that Pierre is expecting a breaking ball on a 1-2 count. Result? DLee comes back from a 1-2 count for a walk, with the pitcher obviously distracted by Pierre.

 

 

The result of the walk leaves Pierre at 2nd, Lee at 1st with Barret up (Aram was out) with 1 out .... Pierre steals third the very next pitch off a great jump (which advances Lee to 2nd), and the catcher makes an errant, rushed throw to third. As the ball trickles into the outfield, Pierre easily trots in home and Lee advances to 3rd with 1 out. Lee later scored on a lazy Barret sac fly.

 

In essence, Pierre "manufactured" TWO runs in that inning ... both his and Lee's. I would like to know if there is a stat out there that would accredit Pierre in any way for Lee's. If not, then there really is a lot of weight to the fact that our current stats do not entirely take into account or reflect the impact of speed on the game.

Edited April 26, 2006 by Elrhino

[Soul]

I want to see the board when we take a 5-6 game dive this year.

 

We're winning and people are bitching. Some people just can't live with the fact, we're winning or what?

 

As much as I wouldn't want that to happen, at some point in will and I think half of the people are going to die.

 

I also can't wait for Pierre to have a couple good games in a row because I guarantee you I will start a "Crow Anyone?" thread.

 

I'm extremely positive on the Cubs right now. Watching Marshall do what he just did, and seeing Matt Murton break out against one of the top pitchers in the league-----freaking awesome. Add that to Maddux's resurgence, Dempster's continued solid performances, and our much improved bullpen? We've got a fighting chance to hold out until our vets return.

 

Unfortunately, those of us who acknowledge the positive as well as the negative find their positive posts ignored.

 

Part of the problem are the readers of this board, reading only what they want to see and prejudging people.

[chopsx9]

No no they are right its time to yank Pierre just like Lee should have been released in 2003 when he was sucking wind at the start of the year. I mean Pierre's numbers are not nearly as bad as Lee's were but still. And there was that Sanberg guy who sucked in April all those years. How he made it into the HOF with numbers like that in April is mindboggling.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

In 650 AB, the difference between a .280 hitter and a .300 hitter is about 13 hits. Just missing an infield single every couple of games b/c your legs are cold/cramped/tight makes a big difference for a guy like Pierre.

 

 

Do you honestly believe he's slower right now and that he'll be faster in June or July????

 

If he's so slow now, why is he 7/7 in stolen bases?

 

According to those numbers, if anythings he's faster now than he will be later in the summer...

 

Yes. Again, it is a statistical fact that the same athletes perform with slower times in colder temperatures. The best data for this is in track and field, especially in shorter distance sprints. It's only fractions of a second we are talking about, but that's 1/2 a step on the basepaths, which can often mean the difference between a hit and an out.

 

Stealing a base is more than just speed. It's reading a pitcher. That he's currently 7/7 doesn't mean that he's just as fast now as he is in July. That's an invalid conclusion from a true statement.