Sosa & Nats looking at 1yr deal?/Possible Retirement?

[BigbadB]

Didn't McGuire fall off as quickly? Of course, steroids is a hot topic with him as well. :D

[BigbadB]

Actually, I was looking for an angle that went against the grain of all the speculation around steroids. This is a topic that will likely be discussed for many years. The drop off in production for any player will automatically beg the question of whether steroids played a part.

 

I don't know. We may never know.

[Careless]

Hang 'em up, buddy. I'd hate to see this turn into McGriff part 2 in some quest to get to 600.

 

Didn't he already pass that point in his career in his last season here in Chicago ? He should have stopped right after we lost against the Marlins - he had some huge homers and good games. But I guess this really shows he was only playing for himself afterall.....

 

Come on, after the shots he was hitting in the 03 playoffs, you didn't honestly think he was going to decline as much as he did in 04.

 

Actually, I still held out hope that he could improve on those numbers. I wonder how much that beaning had to do with his decline? I always felt like he moved away from the plate from that point forward and could no longer drive that outside pitch. In fact, opposing pitchers exploited the fact he coudn't reach the outside pitch. He never made the adjustment and his offense has been in decline ever since.

 

Maybe that isn't it at all. I brought up this topic once before, and one of our members went back and watched video from pre-decline and said it didn't appear as though he did move back, and that he always stood that far back. Maybe the combination of a slowing bat speed and pitchers finding that out pitch by throwing outside required an adjustment, one Sammy refused to make.

 

Maybe it was steroids. Has there ever in the history of baseball been a player that went back to back to back 60+ seasons, then literally fall of the face of the earth the next 2+ years?

I'd use steroids if they could launch me into space. Pretty sure you're wrong about that, though

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

Actually, I was looking for an angle that went against the grain of all the speculation around steroids. This is a topic that will likely be discussed for many years. The drop off in production for any player will automatically beg the question of whether steroids played a part.

 

I don't know. We may never know.

 

I agree and to be honest, ignorance is bliss in this situation. The memories of Sosa and his 60+ seasons are great as a Cubs fan; I don't want to taint them with thoughts of steroids.

 

Big Mac is another great example, although I don't recall him hanging around with rumors of NRI to Spring Training or the possibility of playing in Japan.

 

Sammy...you need to hang it up bro!

[rocket]

Hang 'em up, buddy. I'd hate to see this turn into McGriff part 2 in some quest to get to 600.

 

Didn't he already pass that point in his career in his last season here in Chicago ? He should have stopped right after we lost against the Marlins - he had some huge homers and good games. But I guess this really shows he was only playing for himself afterall.....

 

Come on, after the shots he was hitting in the 03 playoffs, you didn't honestly think he was going to decline as much as he did in 04.

 

Of course, we'd all be thrilled if Jacque Jones gave us .253/.332/.517 35 HR 80 RBI that Sammy put up in his 2004 decline.

[CheeseHead Cubs Fan]

Hang 'em up, buddy. I'd hate to see this turn into McGriff part 2 in some quest to get to 600.

 

Didn't he already pass that point in his career in his last season here in Chicago ? He should have stopped right after we lost against the Marlins - he had some huge homers and good games. But I guess this really shows he was only playing for himself afterall.....

 

Come on, after the shots he was hitting in the 03 playoffs, you didn't honestly think he was going to decline as much as he did in 04.

 

Actually, I still held out hope that he could improve on those numbers. I wonder how much that beaning had to do with his decline? I always felt like he moved away from the plate from that point forward and could no longer drive that outside pitch. In fact, opposing pitchers exploited the fact he coudn't reach the outside pitch. He never made the adjustment and his offense has been in decline ever since.

 

Maybe that isn't it at all. I brought up this topic once before, and one of our members went back and watched video from pre-decline and said it didn't appear as though he did move back, and that he always stood that far back. Maybe the combination of a slowing bat speed and pitchers finding that out pitch by throwing outside required an adjustment, one Sammy refused to make.

 

Maybe it was steroids. Has there ever in the history of baseball been a player that went back to back to back 60+ seasons, then literally fall of the face of the earth the next 2+ years?

I'd use steroids if they could launch me into space. Pretty sure you're wrong about that, though

 

Wrong about what? If you are too naive to think there is a possibility that Sammy used steroids to put up the numbers he did, then possibly you are the one that is wrong.

[chopsx9]

Maybe it was steroids. Has there ever in the history of baseball been a player that went back to back to back 60+ seasons, then literally fall of the face of the earth the next 2+ years?

 

Nobody has ever had back to back to back 60+ years. Sammy did it three out of four years. His HR totals below (the number in paranthesis are his projected total for 156 games - the lowest total he had in a non strike shortened season from 93 onwards) don't appear to "fall off the face of the earth".

 

98 - 66

99 - 63

00 - 50

01 - 64

02 - 49 (51)

03 - 40 (45)

04 - 35 (43)

 

His OPS in 2003 was still .911. (Six years after first hitting 60) Was there a decline - absolutely - but I don't think it was fall of the face of the earth bad. Lots of power hitters have taken worse falls - Dale Murphy, Corey Snyder, Howard Johnson, Mattingly.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Lots of power hitters have taken worse falls - Dale Murphy, Corey Snyder, Howard Johnson, Mattingly.

 

None of them went from 30 HR power to putting up 243 over 4 seasons either.

[noisesquared]

Actually, I was looking for an angle that went against the grain of all the speculation around steroids. This is a topic that will likely be discussed for many years. The drop off in production for any player will automatically beg the question of whether steroids played a part.

 

I don't know. We may never know.

 

I agree and to be honest, ignorance is bliss in this situation. The memories of Sosa and his 60+ seasons are great as a Cubs fan; I don't want to taint them with thoughts of steroids.

 

Big Mac is another great example, although I don't recall him hanging around with rumors of NRI to Spring Training or the possibility of playing in Japan.

 

Sammy...you need to hang it up bro!

 

McGwire retired more because of the inability to stay healthy than because he couldn't play. If he'd been able to play a full season in 2001, his last year, he projects out to hitting 45 HR. And had a 1.200+ OPS in 2000. Not comparable to Sammy IMO...

[chopsx9]

Lots of power hitters have taken worse falls - Dale Murphy, Corey Snyder, Howard Johnson, Mattingly.

 

None of them went from 30 HR power to putting up 243 over 4 seasons either.

 

That's not accurate though. In 96 Sosa hit 40 in 126 games (which projects out to 52/53 in a full season) . In 97 he hit 36 in what. if you look at his numbers - most of which were his worst in 4 years, can be considered a bad/down year.

 

Regardless of whether you want to consider 97 a down year saying he had 30hr power is a significant understatement. Is 50 to 66 in two years that big a jump? It's certainly not Brady Anderson like.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Lots of power hitters have taken worse falls - Dale Murphy, Corey Snyder, Howard Johnson, Mattingly.

 

None of them went from 30 HR power to putting up 243 over 4 seasons either.

 

That's not accurate though. In 96 Sosa hit 40 in 126 games (which projects out to 52/53 in a full season) . In 97 he hit 36 in what. if you look at his numbers - most of which were his worst in 4 years, can be considered a bad/down year.

 

Regardless of whether you want to consider 97 a down year saying he had 30hr power is a significant understatement. Is 50 to 66 in two years that big a jump? It's certainly not Brady Anderson like.

 

And Brady Anderson is another player I believe was juiced. I certainly don't have any proof, it is pure speculation, but I don't think Canseco was as crazy as many made him out to seem. I love Sammy and everything he did for the game of baseball, but I am positive he was juiced.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Maybe it was steroids. Has there ever in the history of baseball been a player that went back to back to back 60+ seasons, then literally fall of the face of the earth the next 2+ years?

I'd use steroids if they could launch me into space. Pretty sure you're wrong about that, though

 

Wrong about what? If you are too naive to think there is a possibility that Sammy used steroids to put up the numbers he did, then possibly you are the one that is wrong.

[TenzilKem]

I personally think that Sosa is older than 37 and his decline is fairly typical of a hitter in his 40's.

 

For example, look at Willie Mays and Hank Aaron. Both had their last decent season at age 39 and declined rapidly thereafter.

 

Here are their homerun totals by age (Aaron, then Mays):

 

39: 40/28

40: 20/18

41: 12/8

42: 10/6

[Careless]

Hang 'em up, buddy. I'd hate to see this turn into McGriff part 2 in some quest to get to 600.

 

Didn't he already pass that point in his career in his last season here in Chicago ? He should have stopped right after we lost against the Marlins - he had some huge homers and good games. But I guess this really shows he was only playing for himself afterall.....

 

Come on, after the shots he was hitting in the 03 playoffs, you didn't honestly think he was going to decline as much as he did in 04.

 

Actually, I still held out hope that he could improve on those numbers. I wonder how much that beaning had to do with his decline? I always felt like he moved away from the plate from that point forward and could no longer drive that outside pitch. In fact, opposing pitchers exploited the fact he coudn't reach the outside pitch. He never made the adjustment and his offense has been in decline ever since.

 

Maybe that isn't it at all. I brought up this topic once before, and one of our members went back and watched video from pre-decline and said it didn't appear as though he did move back, and that he always stood that far back. Maybe the combination of a slowing bat speed and pitchers finding that out pitch by throwing outside required an adjustment, one Sammy refused to make.

 

Maybe it was steroids. Has there ever in the history of baseball been a player that went back to back to back 60+ seasons, then literally fall of the face of the earth the next 2+ years?

I'd use steroids if they could launch me into space. Pretty sure you're wrong about that, though

 

Wrong about what? If you are too naive to think there is a possibility that Sammy used steroids to put up the numbers he did, then possibly you are the one that is wrong.

You said that steroids could literally launch a person into space. That is almost certainly not true.

[stitchface]

the size of the park didn't matter in sammy's prime - he was not the classic hit lots of long flies home run hitter. not sure if that's true anymore. quick question, is there more contact made at Coors?

[BigbadB]

We might need Fred for this answer, but I would say yes, there is more contact made at Coors. Using Preston Wilson as an example since he was a guy who played somewhere else before Colorado, and somewhere since Colorado, he has:

 

his highest AVG as a Rocky, highest HR, highest Doubles, etc... He actually had 80 XBH's one year, which will typically make teams really want you on the team if you played anywhere other than Colorado. His second highest total is 69 in 5 more at bats.

 

He had 605 at bats in 2000 with 187 K's. His full year in Colorado, he had 600 at bats and 139 K's. He topped that total last year with 148 in only 520 at bats.

 

I'm sure you can probably find more players to compare, but he was the first one I thought of. I think Sammy could actually stretch his career in Colorado, but the weather may not to his liking all that much.

[UK1679666180]

It's a double edged sword that is almost impossible to find out. The thin air has a major effect on one pitch, the curve. The curve is the best strikeout pitch and the toughest to hit, is thrown well. You take away a pitcher's best strikeout pitch, the numbers will drop. Of course, being that the air makes it a little league park, players tend to try and hit the ball 500ft and overswing.

[stitchface]

Playing at high altitude, on the other hand, does change your ability to make contact

 

Don't breaking balls break less sharply at high altitudes? I thought that was one of the reasons they wanted Wellemeyer in Col. becuase he was a fastball/ change up guy.

 

*If* that's the case then it would have an effect on making contact. On the other hand, it seems like Sosa's problem is catching up to the inside fastball.

breaking is caused by air resistance, which is directly related to the air density. Higher altitude=lower pressure=lower density=less friction=less break on pitches.

Now a slow bat? Well, you'd think tampa bay would be the thing (the city is tampa, tampa bay is a body of water...)

 

 

FWIW - Rockies pitchers have had more strikeouts at home than on the road each of the last three years. Houston is a better homerun park for right-handed hitters than Coors.

[stitchface]

It's a double edged sword that is almost impossible to find out. The thin air has a major effect on one pitch, the curve. The curve is the best strikeout pitch and the toughest to hit, is thrown well. You take away a pitcher's best strikeout pitch, the numbers will drop. Of course, being that the air makes it a little league park, players tend to try and hit the ball 500ft and overswing.

 

I think the characterization as a Little League park is inaccurate. The Rockies would be well-served to move in the fences especially in center. Houston is far worse as far as being a little league park in my opinion. I think you can prove if more contact is made or not pretty easily btw. What role the hitters changing their swing plays is incalculable.

 

What is amazing looking at the splits is the difference between the rockies hitters at home and on the road - they go from top of the heap at home to the bottom on the road.

 

When was the last year the Cubs didn't lead the NL in ks?

[stitchface]

Rockies hitters are the opposite, however, striking out far more often on the road than at home.

[baseball7897]

Why doesent Sosa go look for a job in the California Pino league, he might find Wild Thing there.

[daske17]

Why doesent Sosa go look for a job in the California Pino league, he might find Wild Thing there.

 

I think he may be more apt to find the cast of Sideways in that league.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Why doesent Sosa go look for a job in the California Pino league, he might find Wild Thing there.

 

You know that the line from that movie is "California Penal League" ?

 

I don't know what a California Pino league is. I also don't know what your comment has to do with the thread at all.

[Knyption]

Haha,

 

 

Vance hit it on the head the friggen jail league, "penal league"

 

haha

 

Sosa may end up there with the shady tax practice his foundation does, but besides that, give him another shot, who knows he might put together a 35-40hr season before he retires, but like deer a 230 avg.

[bhogg]

rob deer couldn't hit .230 in a beer softball league.