Matthew Trueblood

Every loss brings the Cubs closer to selling off pieces at the trade deadline, which now lurks just two lines down on the calendar. At this point, they'd need more than a surge to avoid being in position to sell; they'd need an outright streak of seven or eight wins. Failing that, though, there's a chance for them to repeat the process that brought them their top prospect two years ago. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports Already, we've heard that the Dodgers have interest in Marcus Stroman. That makes sense. Despite their very impressive depth and seeming ability to turn fifth-rounders into mid-rotation guys at will, the Dodgers always seem to be wrestling with the injury bear, and they're losing that fight this year. Though they've pulled out to a two-game lead in the NL West, they have an entire rotation's worth of starters on the injured list, and there are three untested rookies in their rotation at the moment. One of their ostensibly reliable veterans, at the moment, is the oft-injured Tony Gonsolin. The most obvious course could be for the Cubs to target one of those three rookie starters--Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, and Michael Grove--in a potential Stroman trade. That's slightly fraught, though, because the Dodgers could see Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, and others depart as free agents this winter, so they might prefer to cleave to their young hurlers for now. Just as importantly, the Cubs face a likely future without Stroman, and perhaps one without Kyle Hendricks or Drew Smyly as viable starters in 2024. They might not want to add another rookie to a rotation that figures to feature at least two of Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, and Hayden Wesneski, anyway. Perhaps, then, both sides would consider a trade that would give the Cubs the power missing from their outfield, even though it would need to wait until mid-2024. In a deal with echoes of the one that brought Pete Crow-Armstrong into the fold two years ago, the Cubs could trade Stroman to the Dodgers for a package headlined by outfield prospect Andy Pages. Alas, the most obvious similarity to the Crow-Armstrong trade is in the status of the two prospects at the time of the deals (one real, one (so far) merely imagined). Pages tore the labrum in his shoulder in his first game at Triple A earlier this year, and is out for the season. That's the same injury (there are subtle differences, but PCA also had a labral tear and the prognosis for recovery was good in each case) that had sidelined Crow-Armstrong two months before the Cubs landed him in the trade that sent Javier Baez to the Mets. If Crow-Armstrong had been healthy at the time, he wouldn't have been available in a deal for an impending free agent like Baez. If Pages were healthy, he would probably already be knocking loudly on the door of the big-league roster, and the Dodgers wouldn't consider trading him for a player like Stroman--who can become a free agent at season's end, and who could opt in for $21 million next year if he happens to get hurt down the stretch. Since Pages is hurt, though, there's now some extra risk involved in projecting his career, and it might be enough to make him available in exchange for the market's best starting pitcher. Getting him would be a minor coup, too, because he's exactly what is missing from the Cubs lineup. Before getting hurt this season, he was one of the most surefire (though not one of the highest-ceiling) power prospects in baseball. Almost no hitter in professional baseball, on any level, focuses as much on lifting the ball to the pull field as does Pages, and he's consistently successful doing so. He hit 57 home runs, 54 doubles, and four triples across two levels in 2021 and 2022, in just over 1,100 combined plate appearances. He strikes out fairly often, but not unmanageably, and he draws a ton of walks, because pitchers know they'll pay if they make a mistake over the inner two-thirds of the plate, and Pages knows how to spot the junk they throw just off the outside edge. Obviously, since he's gotten virtually zero time in at Triple A thanks to the injury, he'll need to open next season in the minors. If he comes back with his strength and his approach intact, though, he should be a quick study there, and he could debut in the big leagues by midseason. That's another key difference from the Crow-Armstrong deal: proximity. Pages isn't going to end up a viable center fielder, but given that Crow-Armstrong should beat him to MLB, anyway, that's no problem. Fitting him into the team's plans in the corner outfield is tricky, but far from impossible. He could rotate through both corners, with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki getting some time at designated hitter. Alternatively, of course, the Cubs could shop one of their incumbent corner men this winter. At Wrigley Field, a right-handed power hitter who can consistently lift the ball to his pull field should be a perennial threat to hit 35 home runs. It's how Ernie Banks hit 500 home runs, and how Kris Bryant won an MVP award. Pages comes with risk, but he could become the dangerous middle-of-the-order bat that the Cubs have sorely lacked since the 2021 trade deadline. They could do much worse than acquiring him for another rental player at this one. View full article

Yeah, I think an oblique can linger all year, but it’s a really good bet that when it heals, power is boosted in a big way on the other end. Soler comes to mind. Question is, how long does it linger or how often does it recur?

They absolutely should be giving Mervis that second look. But it’s worth something along those lines that the evaluations of prospect writers before he came up marry nicely with the engines of his struggles when he was in MLB. The doubters aren’t conclusively right, but I give their opinions a bit more weight after seeing him for a stretch at the highest level—enough so, anyway, that I’d be fine bringing in another LHH with a well-rounded skill set, especially since he could DH or play a corner OF spot if Mervis takes off.

That’s a great set of points. Although it does feel a little like the O’s pose a rare and very fleeting opportunity. A couple of the prospects named here will slide in for the likes of Austin Hays and Anthony Santander next year, and the Orioles will find trade partners for one or more of the more expensive, less controllable, lower-ceiling guys on the current roster.

The best trade ideas to kick around in July are the ones that feel slightly off-the-wall. They're aggressive, fascinating--and wildly unlikely. Still, those kinds of deals have transformative potential missing from some more traditional moves. So what would it take to get you interested in trading Justin Steele? Image courtesy of © Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports This piece is in honor of longtime reader and Twitter compadre Matt White. When Daniel Burnham wrote, "Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir men's blood," something deep inside one of Matt's forebears stirred at the very ambition of it. He's a good follow for denizens of Cubs Twitter, precisely because his mind is always in motion, and because he's unafraid of turning over big notions like this one in his head. Way back on July 1, Matt emailed me with one of those thoughts: Why not explore trading Steele this month, as an alternative to doing so with Marcus Stroman? He made some strong points, too. To summarize them: It might be the team's best chance to break out of the quagmire in which they've seemed stuck since 2019. Steele would give the Cubs access to high-ceiling young hitters, in a way any other trade chip would be unlikely to do. Steele, for all his strengths, shares the signature shortcoming of the Cubs' starters, in that he really doesn't miss bats within the strike zone. They need to remake their rotation and address that specific issue in the medium and long term, so why not get proactive about it while his value is sky-high? Before anyone jumps on Matt for the sense of backward momentum this type of deal would seem to imply, know that he specifically mentioned extending Stroman this month as part of the maneuver. (This was well before we heard virtually ironclad confirmation that that won't happen.) He also recommended focusing on either immediate or imminent contributors, such that it wouldn't feel too much like a selling move. To be sure, Steele (who's going to become arbitration-eligible for the first of four times this winter) has the sheer value in trade to land someone good, and someone on whom the Cubs wouldn't have to wait long at all. The fit that leaps to mind for me is the Orioles, a clear contender who could even dream on a trip to the World Series this year, but who are also positioned to be good for the balance of Steele's term of team control. Baltimore's farm system is deep, and its depth leans toward position players. Not even an All-Star starter whom the team can retain for at least four years will pry loose Gunnar Henderson or Jackson Holliday, but the Cubs could still talk to the O's about Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo, and Heston Kjerstad. Depending on whom you ask, Mayo or Kjerstad could be the best fits. Each is now in Triple-A Norfolk, and each has already raked in Double A at a very young age. They're the controllable power bats the Cubs have been lacking, even if they each come with warts. Is this likely to happen? Not at all. Steele is the linchpin of the Cubs rotation, especially with Stroman set either to depart or to get a significant pay raise for 2024. To trade him, the Cubs would need to acknowledge the risk that comes with his two-pitch mix; the unique but not traditionally dominant characteristics of his fastball; his shaky health record, as he nears 30; and the dearth of whiffs in the strike zone that we've already discussed. They'd need to have major faith in the combination of Jordan Wicks, Cade Horton, and Ben Brown, and while this is a good moment to feel good about just about all of them, the danger of that gambit is obvious. Still, it's a fascinating concept. The Orioles have the combination of urgent need, use for all of Steele's years of control, and depth on the farm to supply the Cubs with some very exciting talent in exchange for Steele. Failing that, the Cubs could raid the systems of any of a few other pitching-needy contenders, like the Dodgers, Astros, or Rays--the last of whom, in addition to having just as deep and impressive a reserve of potential sluggers as Baltimore, would love to get ahold of a cost-controlled star. Talking about a trade like this--even a wholly hypothetical one--can be frustrating. It doesn't feel like something the Cubs should be in a position to even ponder. It doesn't seem right that they might need to let the greatest success story for their pitching development pipeline in over a decade go elsewhere just to make up for a shortfall elsewhere. That's not the fault of the idea, though. The frequent lament, "How can you get closer to winning by trading away good players?" misses the point. A few good players can't ensure a good team, as the 2023 Cubs prove on a daily basis. There is some price, even if it's not a good bet that anyone will meet it, at which trading Steele would move the Cubs forward, because they would be breaking the cycle of mediocrity that has so aggravated fans in the first place. The excruciating facts are that the Cubs are not succeeding right now, and that they're a bit hemmed in by what were either poor evaluations or poor developmental plans for some key players on whom they've spent a lot of money that will remain on their payroll in coming years. To work around that, they'll have to bear some pain somewhere. Unless you believe the Ricketts family is ready to run a $300-million payroll, it's likely that wince-inducing trades will be part of that, eventually. Moving Steele right now, while he's healthy and running a sub-3.00 ERA, is a concept with a lot of merit, even if it causes you to break out in hives that look exactly like Tom Ricketts's face. View full article

It's such a weird fit. The Jays' rotation is actually pretty robust. Levine mentioned this in his article about Stro not expecting an extension, and said the two teams "have done their due diligence about the strength of each other's farm systems," which, hmm. Maybe the Cubs add a lesser prospect to Stro (cushioning the Jays against the risk that he gets hurt and opts in for 2024 as something like dead money), and that gives them access to a prospect the caliber of Ricky Tiedemann or Addison Barger? I dunno. Just thought that was an interesting note to season the stew of this one.

Plenty of caveats, but using FanGraphs's Farm Rankings, Astros are 21st, the Yankees are 16th, and the Twins are 13th. You'd love to have an overflowing farm teeming with can't-miss dudes from which to pick, I guess, but there's plenty in those three orgs to target if it comes to it. Most of the truly dire systems belong to teams who are also sellers this year, so if they make a trade with anyone but the Braves, they will at least have some good names about which to inquire.

It's a high-stakes Sunday, as the Cubs need a win to seal a series victory over the Red Sox and get this all-important homestand off to a good start, with their ace on the hill. Before the game, let's take a deep breath and savor the intersection of this homestand and the beloved viral baseball game, Immaculate Grid. Image courtesy of Immaculate Grid For the two or three web-wise baseball fans who haven't yet found it, Immaculate Grid is the game (some distant spiritual descendant of Wordle, related to Sporcle quizzes on its mother's side) in which a player gets a grid of nine empty squares, lined by teams and/or achievements players might have notched in seasons or careers. The challenge is, with nine guesses, to fill out a perfect grid, where each square contains a player who either played for both teams in question or played for the team and managed the named feat. Our twist on the fun is that, with the Cubs hosting the Red Sox, Nationals and Cardinals during these 10 games, I'm going to name and write a bit about each of the six players (just six) in MLB history who have played for all four of those franchises. I'll put it in the Spoiler bubble below, though, so you can grab an unopened water bill and write your answers on the back of the envelope before viewing the answers. As a service to you, dear players, I'll also list any other teams for which each guy played. Does any of this matter much? No. Is it fun? The entire reason that Immaculate Grid exists is that, yes, it is. If we can't occasionally find a reason to talk a little bit about the players above, then we're just not trying hard enough. In a couple of those cases, it's especially scary to consider that if we don't learn from history, we might be doomed to repeat it. View full article

It's still too early to tell whether the Cubs will or should be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. Their needs came pretty clearly into focus a while ago, though, and one of them is a consistent right-handed bat with power. As the Mets become very obvious sellers, one of those should emerge as eminently available. Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports Over a long career, Tommy Pham has showed an extremely consistent ability to hit the ball hard, and he's demonstrated consistently excellent plate discipline. Everything else about his game--his defense, his ability to get the ball in the air where all that exit speed can do real damage, his health, and even his relationships with teammates and management--has been less consistent, but as he ages, even those things seem to be tightening up. Pham, 35, signed a one-year deal with the Mets this winter for $6 million, plus incentives based on playing time. He's been so good (and the Mets offense, alas, otherwise so bad) that he's going to earn many of those incentives, whether he's traded or not. Even so, he'll cost less than $8 million in total, a very manageable number. Given that, his .271/.347/.476 batting line will make him a very attractive trade target over the next two weeks. Everything in his batted-ball data suggests he can keep up this pace, at least for the balance of this season. Pham is running a career-high pull rate and career-low ground ball and pop-up rates. He's lifting the ball consistently, still generating excellent exit velocities, and not slicing underneath it in the process. With his trademark patience at the plate, he's getting on base at a good clip even as he adds a bit of power. Pham has lost a step, and modulated his formerly hyperaggressive approach on the bases, but he's still fast for his age and has used his newfound savvy to steal 10 bases in 11 tries. He's almost unplayable even in left field, but could fit there as the short side of a platoon with Ian Happ if Happ (.238/.365/.313, 0 HR) continues to show such ineptitude against southpaws. Otherwise, he'd have to be the designated hitter, but he'd be an awfully good one to add to the mix. In exchange for Pham, it's a safe bet that the Cubs would have to give up one useful prospect, but not anything that they would miss terribly. Kevin Made is still quite young for High A, but he's only posted a .651 OPS there this year, and with the additions of Matt Shaw and Josh Rivera to an already crowded medium-term middle infield picture, the Cubs could look to alleviate that jam by shopping Made this month. If he were involved in this kind of deal, Chicago would also have to throw in an intriguing arm, but one with some warts on his profile, too. Alternatively, if the Mets want a player with plenty of risk but some chance to profile a bit like Pham for the longer term, the Cubs could offer Nelson Velazquez. Since he returned to Iowa last in mid-May, Velazquez is hitting just .245/.321.,426 there, with a hefty strikeout rate. Still, we've seen his combination of power and speed look good at times over the last year and change. The last question is about whether and how Pham could fit into the bigger picture of the Cubs roster. They'd need to feel like they could entrust Christopher Morel with more playing time at third base, or else like they couldn't trust Morel to play much at all, in order for this to work. Patrick Wisdom would be shunted off the roster, and Trey Mancini would either face the same fate in short order or need to start playing more first base again. In that way, the fit is imperfect. As an addition to what is already the league-leading offense in pitches seen per plate appearance, though, Pham makes a ton of sense, and he has the right-handed jolt that has been missing from the lineup for most of the season. As relatively low-cost bats go, he's an appealing one. View full article

This is the thing people keep missing, imo, as they advocate for extending Bellinger: he’s hitting free agency. He *has* agency. They can’t just keep him and tell him he’s a first baseman. There’s no way they can pay him as much to play first base as someone will pay him to play center field, so he’s not going to come back to be the first baseman. Again, I could see a scenario (albeit a wild one) where they keep Bellinger, but it’d have to involve either getting a stunning opportunity to cash PCA in for a present-tense star or an even more unlikely trade of Happ or Suzuki. I know no one wants to think of it this way, but extending Happ closed off most realistic avenues to retaining Cody, and anyway, you’re not gonna get him to sign some pre-market extension. He only comes back at the going rate in free agency, which would hamstring them as they try to find a legit slugger and/or new front of the rotation pieces (unless that weird scenario where Happ or Suzuki and their money find a new home does come to fruition).

This is one of the best times of year for baseball fans. Races for the postseason are just starting to percolate and gather heat, but just as excitingly, the trade deadline looms. The Cubs need to be active at this year's deadline, one way or the other. Let's talk about a potential trade that would send star center fielder Cody Bellinger up north. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports Today's is the first in a series of pieces we'll do as the deadline approaches, featuring mock trades that could make sense for the Cubs under various circumstances. Check North Side Baseball daily for more, and jump into the discussion by leaving your opinion in the comments. With two home runs in the first game after the All-Star break Friday night, we can officially declare Cody Bellinger to be on a heater. He's hitting .302/.357/.518 for the season, with 11 homers and 11 steals. He's making contact at almost exactly the rate at which he did so when he won the 2019 NL MVP award. He's played plus defense both in center field and at first base, and it's been a joy to watch him play. Even beyond the steals, he runs the bases well and aggressively. In the field, he doesn't just track down fly balls well, but charges singles and returns them to the infield quickly. He uses his speed and his strength well in every dimension and facet of the game. Alas, we have to be realistic. Once the Cubs locked Ian Happ in for three more years with their April extension, it got a lot harder to fit Bellinger into the team's long-term plans. He's having exactly the season he and Scott Boras hoped he would have, which means that he'll hit the market this winter seeking almost exactly the deal he and Scott Boras envisioned a few years ago, before injuries sidetracked him for multiple seasons. The Cubs have too many other needs and too much other money committed to pay what Bellinger will cost beyond 2023. Even if one were of the mind to move Seiya Suzuki (eating a sizable share of his contract, in the process), it might be tough to justify retaining Bellinger. Unless the team finds such an enticing trade target that they elect to trade Pete Crow-Armstrong now, he's their center fielder of the future, and the future figures to begin on Opening Day 2024. To re-sign Bellinger would mean paying him more than several teams will surely be willing to pay for a star-caliber center fielder, while intending to stow him away in right field. Bellinger has the arm for that, and maybe playing right would keep him a bit healthier over the course of a long deal, but it's tough to make the value match up in that kind of situation. The next question, then, is whether it's worth retaining Bellinger for the rest of the year, making him a Qualifying Offer, and accepting draft pick compensation when he departs in free agency. If the Cubs climb back into the division race over the coming fortnight, that's an easy call. If they fall farther back, it's equally easy, although painful. Right now, as they struggle to get out of neutral and the clock slowly ticks down toward August 1, it's tough. On one hand, the team would absolutely get more in a trade than the draft pick they'd get for Bellinger is worth, and the chance that trading him is the thing that torpedoes what could otherwise be a winning or playoff season feels vanishingly small. On the other hand, even the remote chance that the team will turn things around is worth preserving, for as long as it exists. Dealing Bellinger before that candle flickers out would be a betrayal of the team's responsibility to do its best for the fans and for its own players. All that said, though, perhaps there's a deal worth making, anyway, because it could be nearly a wash in the short term and a profitable one in the longer term. The Minnesota Twins have a major need, and Bellinger could fill it perfectly--if the price is right. For those unfamiliar with the particulars of the 2023 Twins, it's pretty simple. They have an elite pitching staff, but they can't hit. In particular, they're hurting for production in center field, where shuffling Byron Buxton to designated hitter has left Michael A. Taylor as the everyday starter, and they're not getting enough out of first base. Alex Kirilloff, their 2016 first-round pick, has just four homers in 204 plate appearances. That was to be expected, as he's always been hit over power and has dealt with multiple wrist surgeries already in his young career. However, he's also striking out almost a quarter of the time, which is uncharacteristic and concerning. Bellinger would fit like a glove (er, and a bat) into the Twins' lineup. He could play some center field and some first base for them. His contact skills would be a balm to the league's most strikeout-prone offense. In a weak AL Central, he could be the difference-maker who get the Twins over the top. For the Cubs to give him up, though, the Twins would have to be willing to pay. There will be several other suitors, and the Cubs' playoff dreams (however faint) and the option of giving him a QO give them some leverage, anyway. Happily, Minnesota has a solid farm system, and several recent graduates of it who might be available even on their big-league roster. It's unlikely that the Cubs would have much interest in Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner, who have good upside as left-handed sluggers but also show plenty of warts, and who only play the corner outfield spots. Again, having Happ and Suzuki locked in (even if only monetarily) makes adding another corner-only outfielder a tricky proposition. However, the Twins have a few other young hitters who could have immense appeal to the Cubs, as part of a Bellinger. One is the aforementioned Kirilloff, who (despite the problems described above) has a 117 wRC+ for the season. He's drawing walks and collecting singles at a fine rate, and with more development, he could turn into an above-average first baseman, albeit one more in the lineage of Sean Casey or Wally Joyner than in the traditional slugger's mold. Another is Jose Miranda, who's taken a massive step backward this year and just hit the injured list with a shoulder problem, but who looked like a cornerstone of the team's lineup for the future just a few months ago. Miranda is considerably further from free agency, and it's unlikely that the Twins would want to move him in exchange for a player who will leave after this year. They could be more open to a Kirilloff trade, though, because he's due to become eligible for arbitration via Super Two after this season. If the Cubs do land Kirilloff, they could also probably persuade the Minnesota front office to throw in an extra arm from the lower levels of their farm, especially by offering to pay down the remaining money owed to Bellinger. Slot Kirilloff into the lineup as the first baseman, and the Cubs' offense doesn't take a terrible hit for the loss of Bellinger. The downgrade is real, but it's not crippling, and center field would become an open space on the lineup card. In the very short term, that could be filled by Mike Tauchman, but by the middle of August, it could be time to stick Crow-Armstrong out there. His speed and defense would be worth the potential for some offensive struggles, especially if the Cubs fall out of the race by then, and the audition would give them a better sense of how much they need to pad their lineup for 2024. If Crow-Armstrong hit the ground running, the team could even come out ahead from the exchange. Four years of a usable first baseman--even one with a spotty health track record and a dearth of power--would be a steep price for the Twins to pay for Bellinger, and they might prefer not to take such a gamble on this one season. On the other hand, that front office is under mounting pressure to deliver a return on the team's ownership's record-level investment in the roster, first by reaching the playoffs, and then by breaking their nearly two-decade drought without a playoff victory. Kirilloff would be a good get for the Cubs, but an alternative to that form of the deal could be just as interesting. The Twins have a pair of starters showing well in Double-A Wichita, in David Festa and Marco Raya. Festa is a bit of a Ben Brown clone: big, hard-throwing, and with a good three-pitch mix that should make him a mid-rotation starter in the big leagues soon. Raya is much smaller, but still uses a riding heater to miss bats and set off a three-pitch arsenal. Those two are the kinds of arms the Cubs still need to stockpile, especially with the likely departure of Marcus Stroman and the increasing likelihood that they won't be able to rely on Kyle Hendricks or Drew Smyly beyond the end of this season. Getting both for Bellinger is a pipe dream, but getting either would be a solid return. Bellinger is a unique player on the market. If he stays hot for the balance of this month, and if the Cubs still decide to trade him, he should command a very handsome price. The Twins are a great fit, and there's at least one form of that transaction that wouldn't even make the Cubs materially worse in the short term. View full article

With the announcement of the Cubs' probable starters coming out of the All-Star break and into this pivotal 10-game homestand, it quickly became clear that the team still believes they can catch the Brewers and Reds. They want to be trade deadline buyers, and they're maximizing their chances of doing so. Much can change in the next two weeks, but let's look at how the rotation maps out for the rest of July. Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports Rather than one of the team's All-Star starters, Kyle Hendricks will take the ball first against the Red Sox this weekend. Marcus Stroman will follow him on Saturday, and Justin Steele will get a full cycle of rest between his one-inning All-Star appearance and his first start of the second half--this after he last pitched Wednesday, heading into the break. To be sure, the Cubs are partially managing Steele's workload with this setup, and they're probably pleased to give Stroman an extra day's rest (making it nine days between starts for him) as he tries to permanently put the hot spot on his finger out of his mind and to shake off the slightly wavering command he showed during his final few starts of the first half. Primarily, though, this arrangement is about making sure that both Stroman and Steele make their two starts on this homestand against the two toughest opponents the team faces between now and the deadline: the Red Sox and the Cardinals. By lining things up this way, the lowly and unimposing Nationals get some combination of Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly, then Hendricks in the series finale Wednesday. At the end of the stretch of 10 at Wrigley, the team also gets a true off day, having played a Sunday day game and not needing to travel before starting their two-game set on the South Side Tuesday night. That's a nice chance to catch their breath before the White Sox series, and it lengthens the rotation out by a day already, but it'll be interesting to see (depending on how well they do during the homestand, of course) whether they elect to stretch it even further. The Sox are even worse than the Cardinals, right down there with the Nationals among the game's truly ghastly teams. The schedule the team has created would have Hendricks and Stroman pitching in those crosstown games, but after that, they have to go to St. Louis for four games against the Cardinals, then come back to Wrigley to face the Reds to finish July and begin August. In his only official start since going back to Iowa to stretch out, Hayden Wesneski went three scoreless innings, allowing two hits and one walk while striking out six. He missed bats with both his four-seamer and his sweeping slider. If he has two more good starts over the coming fortnight at Triple A, it's easy to envision the Cubs bringing him back up to face the right-leaning White Sox lineup in one of those two contests. That would not only continue the trend of giving extra rest to the veteran rotation members whenever able, but set up Stroman and Steele to start the first two of those games under the Arch. Whether Wesneski would then fold into a six-man rotation, or whether the team might then consider demoting Drew Smyly to the bullpen, is a question for a much later date. It will be interesting to see how Smyly and Taillon look coming out of the break, not only because the Cubs need to get at least two victories in their four starts on this homestand, but because Smyly has been so untenably awful over the last month and a half. In eight starts dating to May 28, he's averaging about 4 2/3 innings per outing; has a 6.75 ERA; has walked 22 against only 28 strikeouts; and is allowing a .996 OPS to opposing batters. Taillon, while still inconsistent, has certainly trended upward from rock bottom. Smyly is taking his place there. The southpaw, much less protected by his two-year, $19-million deal than Taillon has been by his four-year, $68-million one, could be out of the rotation for good if he doesn't come up big soon--even if the Cubs flop here and end up trading one of their other veterans at the deadline. The set of the rotation coming out of the break is exactly what Cubs fans should want to see. It signals purpose and determination, even in the face of long odds. That doesn't mean it will work, but the decisions are right. The bullpen should be more rested, too, and perhaps David Ross can be more proactive with Smyly or Taillon if they struggle, calling upon Javier Assad for long relief or converting to a bullpen game on the fly, before letting the game get away from the team. One way or another, the Cubs need wins. The coaching staff and the front office have set them up for success, and the schedule ahead is soft. This team has to prove itself. View full article

Very well put. We’re in lockstep on the Mervis decision web then.

Well, you and I just disagree about the absolute merits of Amaya and the relative ones of him and Barnhart. But that’s fine. I’m only suggesting buying some time with that IL stint—opening up playing time to get a more robust evaluation of Amaya, figuring out whether other guys can assert themselves as DH options—not using it to permanently dump him. Although obviously, feeling as I do about it, I do kind of envision them moving on from him before the year is out. To the Mervis point, I do think they could justify swapping out Wisdom for him, but that probably would have to wait until Swanson is healthy, at the very least. I think Young is the guy directly standing in his place on the roster, although Young does some things Mervis can’t, and it’s Young who could be swapped out for him at the lowest transaction cost, right?

I’m definitely skeptical of Perlaza as any kind of long-term solution. One thing the Cubs as an organization and Cubs Twitter *both* do poorly, though, going back years and years, is separating “this guy can be a regular for 3-5 years” from “this guy could have a really hot, helpful 200 PA,” without totally devaluing the latter or convincing themselves that the latter necessarily means the former. I’m not auditioning Perlaza or even Mervis for long-term cornerstone status in these scenarios; I just think they have a better chance of helping this particular team down the stretch than Young, Wisdom, or Mastro. And now is the moment to figure out whether and to what extent that’s true, because it’ll shape decisions they have to make really soon.

With two and a half weeks left before the trade deadline, the Cubs still have a chance to assert themselves as buyers and make outside additions to their roster. Before then, though, the front office should try to gather as much information as possible, by making a few internal moves. Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Though the Cubs are 42-47 as they prepare to start the unofficial second half, their pitching staff is much stronger than that. The roster needs more offensive punch, and the players likely to be available over the next fortnight are not great solutions to what ails the lineup. Before looking outside, then, the team should use the time they still have to do a couple of high-stakes, urgent evaluations. Doing so will require some roster machinations. Firstly, they should swap Jared Young and Matt Mervis, bringing the latter back to the big leagues for a second and final 2023 audition. Since being farmed back out last month, Mervis is hitting .264/.418/.528 in 67 plate appearances. Despite a minor hand injury and an understandably slow start as he landed back in the minors and went about some adjustments, he's looking more or less the way he has since the start of 2022: like a player who needs a greater challenge. Mervis might not work out, but if he doesn't, there's value in finding that out sooner. Young briefly acquitted himself well when he came up to the parent club, but has quickly turned into a pumpkin, and there's little to suggest that he'll turn it around and be an above-average hitter at the MLB level the rest of the way. He's a dead-pull hitter, which is actually a dynamic the Cubs lineup needs, but he hits too many ground balls and whiffs too much to be the kind of dangerous hitter the team needs at first base. Recalling Mervis, then, would give the team a chance to quickly assess the depth of their need for help at the cold corner before the deadline. Similarly, the team should use a phantom injured list stint to shelve Tucker Barnhart, so that they can both get a better idea of Miguel Amaya's short-term value and bring up Yonathan Perlaza for a look as a DH option for the stretch drive. Perlaza, 24, is in the middle of a third straight season with a wRC+ over 120, and while that's come without evidence of elite power potential or exceptional contact skills, he does everything pretty well at the plate. He's a switch-hitter. He has some pop. He's modestly fast and can steal some bases. If Perlaza, Amaya and/or Mervis are useful hitters, the Cubs' needs are so much smaller and less scary that they'll gain leverage in any trade talks. The trio could also give the offense the jolt needed to ensure that they win enough games to position themselves as buyers in the first place. If they flop, it will increase the chances that the team has to act as sellers at the end of the month, but that could come to fruition even without these moves. On balance, it makes sense to work hard to get a better idea of what the organization can expect from these guys as soon as possible, even understanding that that might be a painful, disappointing process. Dansby Swanson should return from the injured list fairly quickly after the break. When he does, the team will face the choice of whether to jettison Patrick Wisdom or send down Miles Mastrobuoni, whose disparate skill sets are so tantalizing but who just haven't been good enough for the last few months. Mastrobuoni's speed is nice, and he did make hard contact three times against the Yankees in his first game back after his latest Iowa sojourn, but his defense isn't quite good enough at the positions where the Cubs really need him, and meaningful power remains beyond his reach. Alas, power (like everything else) seems to be beyond Wisdom's reach right now, too. He's completely lost at the plate, or he was, at least, at the end of the first half. He's rebounded from deep slumps before, and maybe he fixed something during the downtime, but if he doesn't come out of the break roaring and mashing, it's time to move on. As an added bonus, taking either Wisdom or Mastrobuoni off the roster will make it easier to get Christopher Morel consistent playing time, including and especially at third base, so he, too, can be evaluated well before the deadline. Needing to make rapid player evaluations under the pressure of a buy/sell decision with less than three weeks to go before the deadline is an undesirable situation. The Cubs put themselves in that position with their frustrating, inconsistent first half, though, and it's time for them to gain as much useful information as possible before things lock in. To gauge the needed external moves, they need to start with some internal ones. View full article

Everywhere I've looked since the end of the unofficial first half on Sunday, I've seen the denizens of Cubs Twitter wondering whether the Cubs can muster a 43-30 finish to the 2023 season. It'll only take 85 wins to win the NL Central, the thinking goes, so the question is whether the Cubs can get to that number. I think their climb will be steeper. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports There’s no editor quite as good as 100 essayists spread out across a century, grasping at straws. “It’s not what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for certain that just ain’t so,” goes the famous aphorism from Mark Twain, the greatest American aphorist. Twain never actually said or wrote that, and all efforts to ground the modern version of it in anyone’s actual authorship lead back to much less pithy lines. It was a brilliantly succinct and important idea, clearly but imperfectly communicated, and 150 years later, we have a beautiful rendition of it, thanks mostly to trial and error. It also helps, in my opinion, that the speakers and writers who slowly polished the original framework did so while attributing it to (among others) Twain. It’s much easier to be fearlessly clever and witty when you disclaim ownership of the word web you’re spinning. They may have been (knowingly or otherwise) fraudulently borrowing on Twain’s authority in making their points, but these anonymous accidental editors did modern rhetoricians a great service along the way. Anyway, your premise that the Cubs just need to go 43-30 from here just ain't so. We have to update our estimates of the division race of which the Cubs are a part. Early on, when the obviously unsustainable Pirates hot streak put them in the lead and the previously favored Cardinals were down and out, it made some sense to envision a scenario in which a record scarcely better than .500 would bring forth a team from the Central. Now, however, all of that has changed. The Reds will enter the weekend on pace for 89 wins. The Brewers are on pace for 87. The two teams have six more games to play against one another this month, so only one can make major progress toward a 90-win pace in the next two weeks, and it's possible that neither will. Still, the Reds are a team reinvented and catapulted forward by the arrival of their star rookies. The Brewers have survived this long despite not having Brandon Woodruff in their rotation since mid-April. Woodruff will be back soon. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Andrew Abbott aren't going anywhere. If only one of these two clubs were on pace for 88 wins or so, it would be reasonable to argue that they're likely to face down the stretch. Certainly, while they now seem legit, the Reds aren't going to keep up the pace they've established since late May, when they took off from 21-29 to their current record by winning 29 of 41. Still, their overall record contains within it a 21-29 stretch, and that was done by a different team (none of the big rookies, and no Joey Votto, either, because he was hurt) than this one. If Cincinnati adds a starting pitcher at the trade deadline, watch out. They could win 93 or 94 games. More importantly, though, even if they don't do that well, the Brewers could. After a long slump, Willy Adames busted out with a power binge just before the break. Christian Yelich was snubbed, but played the first half at an All-Star level. Their pitching staff is getting healthier, and their offense is due for regression, and the combination of those two things gives them a great chance to push toward 90 wins. Again, one need not believer either of those teams is going to actually do as well as I describe there to understand why 85 wins probably won't win the division. The very existence of two of them makes it pretty likely that one of the two will have that kind of strong finish. The Cubs, then, can't do much of anything with a 43-30 finish. They have to do something I like to call "pulling an Elia"--to wit, getting [horsefeathering] hotter'n [horsefeathers]. To believe the Cubs have a serious chance in the division, you need to buy that they can finish (roughly) 48-25. That's a 108-win pace for nearly half a season. Maybe you do believe that. That's ok. Deep down, in parts of my baseball heart I try to guard and hide away, I believe it, too. I believe that the schedule is soft enough coming out of the All-Star break to allow this team to get hot and earn a key addition or two ahead of the trade deadline. I can easily imagine a more powerful second half from Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, and Seiya Suzuki, and a broadly better one from Nico Hoerner. I have already made my cases for bigger roles on the team for Daniel Palencia and Miguel Amaya, and I think we'll hear from Matt Mervis again before the year is out. The Cubs massively underachieved in the first half, and even if you believe (as I do) that some of that underachievement is systemic and unlikely to simply evaporate without significant changes, the fact is that the talent core of this team is stronger than its record. It can get even better, and with a bit of good luck, a roster this good can get very hot for two months. We just need to be clear that that's what needs to happen. From here, the team has a decent chance to climb out from under .500 and post a winning season, but that won't be nearly enough to get them into the postseason. If they want to do that, they need to pull an Elia, because one of their small-market rivals is going to remain competent and make it a fight from here. View full article