Matthew Trueblood

The Cubs' lineup has tended toward underachievement and dysfunction too often over the last two years. By acquiring Jeimer Candelario Monday night, they hope they've put an end to that prolonged period of frustration. Image courtesy of © Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports Sadly, Jeimer Candelario has rarely had a talented lineup to call his own since matriculating to the major leagues. He was only very briefly part of the championship-era Cubs, and then only as a fill-in. Once he was traded to the Tigers, he was fully marooned. Detroit didn't immediately collapse, but by the time Candelario found his role with the team, they were well into the decline phase of what was such a good run for the team, from 2011-14. When he's part of a good lineup, though, Candelario is the type of hitter who amplifies the punch and value of others in that group. He's a classic cog-in-the-machine guy. He walks at a high rate, puts the ball in play at an average-plus rate, and hits for healthy (though not gaudy) power. He's more likely to split a gap than clear the fence, but more likely to get a hit than to strike out, too. During his best seasons, he's always been one of his team's two best hitters, but as the third- or fourth-best in a given group, he can really shine. That should be where he fits in, if the Cubs are a functional offense down the stretch. Ever since the World Series-winning core began to deteriorate, the lineup's big weakness has been a dearth of true stars, but it's possible to make up for that with sufficient depth. A balanced lineup without major holes can be as good as one with a few formidable sluggers. Candelario nicely rounds out a group that fits that description, at long last--like a rotation without a Cy Young-caliber ace, but with more strength in the fourth and fifth spots than the competition has. With versatility in his offensive skill set and his defensive positions, Candelario can be especially useful to this fairly modular roster. Against most right-handed pitchers, he should bat second and play third base, with Nico Hoerner sliding down to the sixth or seventh spot in the batting order. Against lefties, he should bat third and play first base, pushing Ian Happ and Yan Gomes down out of the top five in the lineup. In each case, it's an important upgrade. Nick Madrigal is forced from the lineup against righties, and Trey Mancini moves fully into a bench role, rather than playing ineffectually against virtually all lefties. Madrigal has blossomed into a very good defensive third baseman, to the surprise of nearly everyone, so Candelario might be only a small upgrade there. He's a much bigger improvement over Patrick Wisdom, though, and it would seem to be Wisdom or third catcher Miguel Amaya whose roster spot he most directly threatens. Amaya, in particular, will suffer from the fact that Gomes is not likely to be used as often as the designated hitter, making it much less necessary to carry an extra backstop. Of course, the most popular cannon fodder (from the perspective of most Cubs fans) would be Mancini, but that seems plausible only if the Cubs find a taker for the big first baseman's contract. That's not going to happen without Chicago kicking in some prospect talent and getting very little in return, so the better bets are that Wisdom or Amaya will become jetsam in the short term. This deal comes far short of guaranteeing the Cubs a playoff berth, let alone a division title or any kind of October glory. The team still needs to (and will) make further upgrades in the bullpen before the trade deadline officially hits in about 20 hours. This was a tremendous start, though, and Candelario should make the team more fun and more consistently competitive over the final two months of this campaign. View full article

We knew the Cubs wouldn't be done when they acquired Jeimer Candelario earlier tonight. Now, they've made what is likely to be the first of multiple moves to bolster and deepen their bullpen. When he's right--and especially when he has control of all that funk and that raw stuff--Cuas can be nasty. He's as much a project as an immediate-impact addition, but this is a nimble bit of 40-man roster management. On the heels of the announcement earlier Monday that Pete Crow-Armstrong is headed to Iowa to join the Triple-A roster, this deal moves Velazquez out of the I-Cubs' crowded outfield picture, keeps the 40-man picture balanced, and lets the Cubs' pitching development infrastructure dig in with a pitcher who gives them plenty with which to work. View full article

The Cubs front office has thrown down the gauntlet. They're not only holding onto Cody Bellinger, but acquiring the best impending free-agent hitter on the trade market, instead. As I wrote in the aforementioned piece, Candelario is a galvanizing addition to a lineup that already led baseball in runs scored during July. His arrival only exacerbates the uncertainty around Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom, but they become much less important figures, which is the point of a trade like this at this stage of a pennant race. Candelario can credibly bat in the top half of the batting order against both lefties and righties. He adds power that Madrigal couldn't and is an on-base threat Wisdom can't be. He's a more experienced defender than either, and though defensive metrics have had a mercurial relationship with him, the eye test says he's smoother and lower-effort there than either of the incumbents. He's also enjoying one of his good years, by those inconstant numbers. What a difference a year makes, for everyone involved in this deal. Candelario was non-tendered by the Tigers this past winter, after a brutal season in which he batted .217/.272/.361. This year, however, he's batting .258/.342/.481. On the flip side, both Made and Herz had some helium at this time last year, but neither has distinguished themselves in their tests in 2023. Each still has upside--Made as a glove-first shortstop, Herz as a stuff-over-command fourth starter or a very interesting reliever--but they're no longer the somewhat shiny objects they were a year ago. It's funny, how nicely Candelario has grown into exactly the player he projected to be when many of us became aware of him as a Cubs farmhand over a decade ago. He draws walks, he hits more doubles than home runs, and he acquits himself in the field. He's a solidly above-average (though rarely star-caliber) third baseman, with the same shape of production one would have guessed he would provide by watching him in Tennessee or Iowa in 2016. Now, the Cubs will be the ones reaping the rewards of that successful development. View full article

Yeah I'm having trouble reading that market. There are a lot of suitors, but they all seem less than desperate. Maybe we're guessing at how good a poker player Mike Rizzo is.

Oh, it’s *definitely* not the case that I expect anyone to think one is a star, least of all a particular one. I think there’s a good chance one of them is a helpful regular, and I think the Cubs need to figure out which one and act decisively, and I think that’s hard because they’re out of time and their information is deeply imperfect. So. 🤷🏼‍♂️.

After going 11-5 in the decisive space between the All-Star break and July 31, the Cubs no longer have a tough decision in whether to buy or sell. Now, they face a more daunting, complicated one, with the same deadline on it. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports A year and a half ago, it felt very much as though the Cubs might need to choose between Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal. One would be their second baseman of the future, but the other would struggle to find any long-term home, and might need to be jettisoned in order to build a functional roster. Not since the 1990s have teams' pitching usage choices allowed for a pure backup second baseman, after all. Then, the 2022 season happened. Madrigal endured frustration and injury, and although he finished strong, he made no compelling case for himself as a starting regular in the majors. Yet, Hoerner left the door open, by proving that he had the capacity to acquit himself at shortstop, in addition to hitting enough to bat near the top of the order on a credible team. That's why Madrigal was able to get a meaningful September audition, in which he looked good, and in turn, that's why he stuck with the Cubs even after the team added Dansby Swanson over the winter. Because Hoerner could be the backup shortstop from his position at second, Madrigal could be a bench player even while largely limited to second base. Obviously, much has changed even since then. Madrigal has, when healthy, had a much better 2023, especially over the last two months. That's the span during which, because of Patrick Wisdom's injuries and inconsistency, Madrigal has become the team's apparent top choice to play third base. It wouldn't have occurred to anyone to put the diminutive Madrigal at third base if exigency hadn't demanded it, but (after a few rocky showings at the start) he's demonstrated above-average ability at that spot. He's also batting .323/.397/.462 since he took over this role on June 9, although that sample is fewer than 80 plate appearances, because he missed most of a month with a hamstring strain. The rub lies in the fact that Madrigal seems (and certainly believes, based on his comments earlier this year during a sojourn in Iowa) to need to be in the lineup almost daily in order to stay in the rhythm necessary to have success with his approach and skill set--to wit, his lack of any power of which to speak. A player who can only play well if they play very often puts more pressure on themselves and the team, because they have to be allotted a daily spot in a way that modern rosters usually do only for stars. Worse, Madrigal is not durable, so to build the best version of this team around him at third base requires having a second, competent third baseman on hand who can be more successful in limited playing time. Here we reach the new dilemma facing the organization. The Cubs no longer need to choose between Madrigal and Hoerner; that would now be a cruelly easy choice. Instead, they need to choose between Madrigal and Christopher Morel. It's not a direct position battle, per se, because the Cubs have proven (and Morel has affirmed, with his play when called upon in semi-emergencies) that Morel is not a third baseman in their eyes. Still, his recent production has forced them to put him in the lineup nearly every day. Often, he's the designated hitter. At this point, because Trey Mancini's contract is a hurdle in dealing with first base or in adding high-salary players at this deadline, third base and DH are the two places where the team can plausibly upgrade the lineup. That means moving on from either Morel (despite his raw production, he's been so up-and-down, and his lack of a position hurts the team's modularity and flexibility) or Madrigal (whose success, on both sides of the ledger, seems so fragile, and who could get hurt again at any moment). They could trade for some slightly better version of Wisdom and banish the current iteration, but if both Morel and Madrigal have to play every day, what would that really achieve? For the balance of this season, it might work to have Morel and Madrigal continue in their roles. However, this deadline is an opportunity to answer a couple of medium-term questions at low cost, or even at a profit, without hurting the 2023 club's chances. To miss that window would be a failure. Thus, the front office has to consider trading one of the two, as part of a maneuver in which they acquire some veteran bat and a controllable pitcher to bolster the staff. Choosing between these two is like choosing between apples and garlic. They're so different, and they offer such different sets of possible rewards and challenges, that it feels strange to set them in rivalry with one another. If the Cubs are going to make a decisive, organization-building, winning move at this deadline, though, it will probably have to involve knowing which of these two is part of their long-term plans. View full article

On Sunday, the Cubs finally lost a game, but they'd already spent the previous week securing their position as buyers at this trade deadline. Two players were the subjects of Cubs-specific rumors that day. Are they the right fits? In an appearance on Marquee Network, 670 The Score baseball reporter Bruce Levine further turned up the heat of those rumors, naming the same two players in an independent way. Both guys could have the same source, of course, but it's impossible to dismiss either mention, in light of the other. It's surprising that we've reached this point with Bednar rumors, because a deal that satisfies the Pirates with the notion of sending an elite reliever to a division rival (while not turning the stomachs of the Cubs front office or their fans) seems so difficult to cobble together. He's a dominant arm. He's struck out over 32 percent of the batters he's faced since the start of 2021, without the complicating walk problems that usually come with stuff that overwhelming. His four-seamer, curveball, and splitter form an almost Platonic ideal of the closer's repertoire, and he commands all three offerings well. Presumably, the Pirates wouldn't even be open to moving him, but for the fact that he will reach arbitration eligibility this winter and start making significant money. Even given that willingness to listen, though, you have to figure Pittsburgh would set a prohibitive price on him when a team like the Cubs calls. The Bucs have to be hoping that they'll be contenders again within the term of Bednar's team control, and they don't want to run into Bednar in the ninth inning of some division-deciding September showdown in 2025. That hypothetical concern might be surmountable, but because it exists, the Pirates would want more for Bednar than the Cubs seem likely to pay. After all, flipping the idea on its head, the Cubs wouldn't want to have Kevin Alcantara hit a game-winning home run against them in two years, be it off Bednar or (because relievers are unreliable and injuries happen and who knows?) someone worse to whom they'd had to turn. Let's set all that irrationality aside a moment, though. When we do so, we can say: Bednar would be a perfect, even sensational addition to this roster. The Cubs need better bullpen depth, and adding to the top of the hierarchy (moving even the impressive Adbert Alzolay down a rung) is more effective and tempting than plugging someone new into the third or fourth place in line. The window of team control is a perfect match for the Cubs' hoped-for rise to sustainable excellence, and it's the perfect time for a closer (rewarded, if anything, too much by the arbitration system) to move from a small-market team to one of the biggest-market ones in baseball. Imagine, then, that the Cubs pay some hefty prospect price for Bednar. Now, further imagine that they pony up the (lesser) price for Candelario, completing a lineup that already looks increasingly viable. Assuming (as one should, if they really made this twinned move) that the team doesn't subtract meaningfully from their big-league roster in the process, adding those two to the current roster would make the Cubs not only credible co-favorites in the NL Central, but viable threats to the Dodgers and to Atlanta if they advance in October. For various reasons, it's unlikely that we see either player don a Cubs uniform this week. There are many other suitors for Candelario, and we've already amply explored the externalities that might prevent a Bednar deal. Still, given the fits, the depth of the Cubs' farm system, and these two reports from people who rarely raise true red herrings, this is the scenario that intrigues me most as the deadline rushes toward us. For my money, there's no realistic haul the team could manage that would be more exciting or helpful. View full article

They were never the sexiest or most natural targets for the Cubs, but two players who could have slotted into this still-flawed contender are now off the trade block. Where do Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins turn? Image courtesy of © Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports To maximize the utility of Randal Grichuk, you really want to have an outfield corner position open for him. The Cubs don't. Nor does C.J. Cron do anything different than what Trey Mancini is supposed to do, but hasn't been able to do, for this team. In that way, neither was ever an ideal balm for what ails this offense at times, barring the Rockies being willing to take back Mancini in a Cron trade or something. Still and all, it stings to see two potential upgrades to the fringes of the roster removed from the table in one swoop. The Angels traded two pitching prospects to the Rockies to get the deal done, but neither has pitched above Low A ball. They're the kinds of arms of which the Cubs have perhaps 10, so sparing two wouldn't have been especially tough. If this is a signal that the market for rental hitters is less supply-starved and seller-friendly than expected, that's welcome news, but the Cubs now have two fewer such players to pursue, and maybe the lack of available options will now ratchet up prices throughout the league. Now, the Cubs need to find a different way to improve upon what Mancini, Miguel Amaya, and Patrick Wisdom give them from the bottom three spots on the position player hierarchy. (We're assuming, for now, that Tucker Barnhart is going to stick around, even if Amaya would be the more aggressive and potentially rewarding use of the backup catcher's roster spot.) One obvious avenue remains open, in the form of the much-discussed Jeimer Candelario, but it's not yet clear whether the Cubs really want to move Nick Madrigal back into a part-time role. Mark Canha is more akin to Grichuk, with more on-base skills but less power and defensive value. Mets teammate and sometime Cubs farmhand Daniel Vogelbach could do everything Mancini does in terms of hitting and fielding, and then some, but his left-handedness makes him an awkward fit into the puzzle. The buyers so outnumber the sellers at this point that, having missed out on Cron and Grichuk in a single Tweet, the Cubs might now be better-served to start seriously considering which of their internal options (guys like Matt Mervis, Yonathan Perlaza, Nelson Velazquez, or even David Bote) could constitute some worthwhile change from the mix they have right now. There are just under 44 hours left to see how the front office solves this riddle. They might need to get very creative, or they might simply have to overpay for Candelario. In any case, while understandable for multiple reasons, it was a bummer to see them whiff on both Cron and Grichuk, particularly because they just didn't cost anything the Cubs could not afford to have surrendered. View full article

Yeah, the names in this piece are explicitly the bare minimum. Although also, doing any more/getting anyone better might be so difficult as to be indistinguishable from impossible. Hard to tell whether anyone actually good is actually available.

This has gotten simple in a big hurry. The Cubs aren't overly optimistic fence-sitters or a buyer/seller hybrid. They're playoff contenders, and they need to spend the next two days getting better. Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports The front office of the 2023 Chicago Cubs isn't in a tough spot. The front office of the 1997 White Sox was. That was a team that tumbled to below .500 by losing six of seven games during the final third of July. That team had a negative run differential, and they just got Robin Ventura back a week before the trade deadline, after he missed nearly 100 games due to injury. That front office made the infamous White Flag Trade that July 31, sending two of the team's key starting pitchers and its closer to the Giants. That might or might not have been the right call, but it was (rightfully) wildly unpopular. That's because a ball club, however much owners and jaded media members might insist otherwise, is a public trust, and the chance to win a division or reach the postseason is a sacred one that the stewards of a club are obligated to respect. To abdicate that duty is to betray the fan base, even if there's a rational, farsighted case for doing it. Now, thanks to their first eight-game winning streak since the year they won the World Series, the Cubs have one of those sacred opportunities. They're not burdened by mixed signals from the team on the field, either in the whole data set of the season or in their recent play. This team is now two games over .500, with the winning streak just part of the reason why their playoff odds are steadily rising. They have four games against the Reds at home this week. They bookend August with home series against the Reds and Brewers, and they bookend September with road series against the Reds and Brewers. They're not on any reasonably drawn borderline between buyer and seller. They're way too in this not to give it their best. That doesn't mean they need to plow under their fields to try to build a dream in this one season. The hope is that this is the first of several competitive seasons over the next decade, and it would be foolish to fritter that chance away by calling too big on a flush draw. I don't like the extent to which we've made deadline activity a defining and primary indicator for every team, every year, anyway. It only means that Hoyer and Carter Hawkins (not to mention the Ricketts family) have a fiduciary duty to make an earnest effort here, and not in the direction of trading Marcus Stroman--or anyone else who can help this team win. We've already written about whom the team could target to upgrade their bullpen (from both the left and the right side), how they might acquire a controllable starter, and a few bats who could hold unique appeal. Now, though, it's time to talk about what a successful big-picture deadline strategy should comprise. Firstly, the Cubs do need relief reinforcements. Gambling on the consistency and reliability of Michael Fulmer, Julian Merryweather, Mark Leiter Jr., and several younger arms is a recipe for heartbreak at the end of the season. Besides, the Cubs are running out of healthy spare arms on their 40-man roster. They can't have a successful deadline without adding at least one helpful reliever. Secondly, the team should definitely stay engaged on (and eventually acquire) another bat to add to their mix. That could take the form of a bigger-ticket item, but C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk, Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano, and Daniel Vogelbach are all candidates to help them. The bare minimum expectation should be that, over the next two days, the team makes these two small improvements. The only question left, to my eye, is whether or not a starting pitcher the team deems worth splurging on will become available at an appropriate cost. Drew Smyly shouldn't be relied upon, except in long or situational relief, down the stretch, but the team might not find a palatable price in this seller's market for a direct replacement for him. One way or another, the team just needs to demonstrate its resolve, by giving the team the buttresses they'll need to serious threaten to beat the Dodgers or Atlanta in the playoffs, should they get that far. They've run out of acceptable excuses not to do so. View full article

They weren't at home and had to do it in the field, but Friday night's Cubs win was, spiritually, a walkoff. It had walkoff energy. Was it the best of their last quarter-century? 1. Aramis Ramirez Extends a Different Winning Streak to Seven, June 2007 There's a certain delight to be taken in the fact that Tauchman's catch extended the Cubs' season-saving winning streak to seven games, too, because so did this landmark moment. That game had even more pathos behind it, with the home crowd humming as the team worked its way back from a 5-0 deficit, and Ramirez capped it with such style that this one might never be topped in Cubs annals. I'm eager to hear what people think of these rankings. There are plenty of good potential entries that didn't even make the cut, but these feel, to me, like the biggest and most worthy ones to celebrate. View full article

The Cubs' thrilling seven-game winning streak should make them unequivocal buyers over the next three and a half days. To make the gamble of chasing a playoff spot pay off, though, they need to bolster their bullpen--significantly. Image courtesy of © Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports There's no way to give Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and Mike Tauchman the official save for Friday night's dramatic win over the Cardinals, but they earned it every bit as much as Adbert Alzolay did. While Alzolay has been tremendous and fun to watch this year, he's still learning to navigate and handle the workload of a high-leverage short reliever, and occasionally, that becomes suddenly and painfully clear. The Cardinals hit him hard Friday night, and he was fortunate to escape. More importantly, though, Alzolay doesn't have much of a supporting cast in the Chicago relief corps right now. Michael Fulmer has been more good than bad, especially in the last month or so, but Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. seem to have used up most of the pixie dust that turned them into dominant middle relievers for a couple of months. They still have good nights, but they need to slide down the bullpen chart to find a home where there's margin for error in most of their appearances. In order for David Ross to do that, Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins need to give him better alternatives. With that in mind, here are a few of the right-handed relievers who could be available and who would make a big difference for the Cubs. Paul Sewald, RHP, Mariners Late Friday night, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted that two MLB executives think the Mariners are open to trading Sewald. That made some sense, given the reporting from Ken Rosenthal Thursday night about the unusual situation Seattle faced heading into the deadline, and the unusual approach Jerry Dipoto is taking. It's immediately worth following, because Sewald, 33, is a top-notch reliever with a year and a half of club control remaining. He's already saved 21 games with a 2.93 ERA for the M's this year, fanning 60 batters in 43 innings pitched. All Sewald has is a four-seamer and a slider, and he only throws 92-93 miles per hour with the heat. Why, then, is he so devastatingly effective? If you've seen him pitch before, you know. If not, here you go. 895d1b22-3d29-4100-8df3-1cfc247fa15d.mp4 From a release point that low and an arm slot that sidearm, his fastball seems to rise and explode like Tom Seaver's. He spins the ball well, utilizes the deception of that warp-speed delivery beautifully, and sets up each of his pitches well using the other. He'd be a big enough acquisition to nudge Alzolay back into a setup role, but if the Cubs prefer, they could also make Sewald the eighth-inning bridge to Alzolay just as easily. This isn't a guy with a reputation and a track record that demand a narrow usage pattern. Adam Ottavino, RHP, Mets Like Sewald, only more so, Ottavino is a low-angle righty whose slider is his main weapon, well into his 30s but still finding ways to get outs. Unlike Sewald, he's showing signs of fading this year, which is why he would cost significantly less in trade. He's gotten a ton of ground balls with his sinker-slider attack this season, though, and the foundation of his previous, more dominant self seems to remain intact. He would be a lower-impact addition, but could still deepen the pitching staff nicely. He has a $6.75-million player option for next season, after a $7.75-million salary (plus some reachable incentives) this year, but that shouldn't be prohibitive for the Cubs. Luis Garcia, RHP, Padres As with Ottavino, here, the Cubs would be taking in a pitcher having a slightly frustrating, disappointing season. Garcia was supposed to be a high-leverage weapon for the high-powered Padres bullpen, but he's struggled this year. After two straight seasons of posting excellent walk rates, he's issued too many free passes. However, he's a flamethrower whose fastball can still touch 99. His slider is still a whiff machine against right-handed batters, and he still induces a lot of weak contact on the ground. He'd be a terrific fit for the Cubs, and the two-year deal he signed with San Diego before 2022 is dirt cheap. As a pure rental, he's unlikely to cost as much as Sewald, though obviously, he'd be a riskier acquisition, overall. Any of these three could have a major impact on the Cubs' bullpen, and they're now a team with clear and serious postseason hopes, so the bullpen matters a lot. Without overpaying and overextending himself, Hoyer needs to make some upgrades to that group. View full article

Here’s something interesting, given the Rosenthal stuff yesterday:

In Ken Rosenthal's latest notes column at The Athletic, he focuses on the Mariners, who might be in an even weirder, more challenging spot than the Cubs. According to Rosenthal, Jerry Dipoto is open to trading one of the team's several good, controllable, young starting pitchers, but only in a deal that would increase (or at least preserve) the team's chances for 2023. Good luck, Jerry. That's a reasonable position to take, hut it makes an actual move involving any of Seattle's starters unlikely. Still, if such a move were to happen, the Cubs could be a fascinating fit. They could make Marcus Stroman an important (though secondary) piece of a deal for, say, Logan Gilbert. The Cubs have young pitching almost as promising as the Mariners' stuff, but a year or two behind them. One of those guys (Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, or even Hayden Wesneski) could be the foundation of a trade. There are other, even wilder fits, too. Christopher Morel could play second base for the Mariners, and that seems to be his best defensive home, by a mile. The Cubs could also inquire on the (presumably very high) price of closer Paul Sewald, who'd be a superb addition to their bullpen and is under team control for 2024, and on the (likely much more realistic) cost of Teoscar Hernandez, who would be a strong right-handed bat for the middle of the lineup. We're going to see fewer pure buy/sell trades this deadline, because there are several teams right where the Cubs and Mariners are. That could make for some interesting trades (and trade rumors) over the coming days, though. View full rumor