Matthew Trueblood
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The Cubs' Playoff Odds, and Why They Only Halfway Matter
Matthew Trueblood posted an article in Cubs
The Cubs still lag two teams in the NL Central standings, and would need to climb over even more in order to claim a Wild Card berth in the National League. Yet, they went out and got Jeimer Candelario yesterday, and they're poised to add further help today. Why? Because Playoff Odds are probabilities, but this team isn't playing to maximize those. They ended up in a position where the payoffs on relative remote chances of winning were worth chasing, even if the chase proves futile. Here are their reported odds at the three sites who provide daily Playoff Odds reports, as of this morning. Baseball Prospectus: 14.6 % to win the division, 26.1 % to make the postseason FanGraphs: 14.9 % to win the division, 24.5 % to make the postseason Baseball Reference: 28.1 % to win the division, 45 % to make the postseason Notably, while Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs each utilize projection systems to generate their playoff odds, Baseball Reference operates very differently. They use a strength-of-schedule-adjusted rating system based on runs and wins over a team's last 100 games, and don't lean on individual player projections at all. Obviously, there can be arguments in favor of either kind of projection, but Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs are generally regarded as more mathematically robust and scientific. If you're looking at all these numbers, then, slightly favor the more pessimistic ones. They even reflect the arrival of Candelario. Despite that, they report that it's a long shot for the Cubs to make it to October in 2023. Anyone who says the team has much better than the chance of rolling a particular number on a standard die is trying to sell you something. That doesn't really matter now, though. If the Cubs were sellers again at this deadline, Jed Hoyer's and David Ross's seats both would have heated up quickly. More importantly, though fans have come back to Wrigley Field in response to a strong start and some encouraging offseason moves, the Ricketts family knows that they can't afford much more abject losing. Once the team reeled off several consecutive wins last week, the thing was cinched. Buying at this deadline made much more sense than selling, or even than standing pat, because the Cubs (as a corporation, as a baseball franchise, and as a fan base) will gain much more in the event that they succeed in this race than they will lose in the event that they fail. Obviously, there has to be a mental restrictor plate there for Hoyer and Carter Hawkins. They need to gauge whether particular opportunities allow them to be in better position than this at this time next year, because they can't afford to go backward in a desperate attempt to cash in on this one imperfect opportunity. Still, making the attempt is important, and they will certainly not have a good chance of success if they don't finish the job they've started and bolster the pitching staff before 5 PM Central. -
As the Cubs make their final moves before the MLB trade deadline, it's worth taking a moment to examine their playoff odds. At the same time, when it comes to driving decisions for this particular team, probabilities have given way to payoffs. Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports The Cubs still lag two teams in the NL Central standings, and would need to climb over even more in order to claim a Wild Card berth in the National League. Yet, they went out and got Jeimer Candelario yesterday, and they're poised to add further help today. Why? Because Playoff Odds are probabilities, but this team isn't playing to maximize those. They ended up in a position where the payoffs on relative remote chances of winning were worth chasing, even if the chase proves futile. Here are their reported odds at the three sites who provide daily Playoff Odds reports, as of this morning. Baseball Prospectus: 14.6 % to win the division, 26.1 % to make the postseason FanGraphs: 14.9 % to win the division, 24.5 % to make the postseason Baseball Reference: 28.1 % to win the division, 45 % to make the postseason Notably, while Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs each utilize projection systems to generate their playoff odds, Baseball Reference operates very differently. They use a strength-of-schedule-adjusted rating system based on runs and wins over a team's last 100 games, and don't lean on individual player projections at all. Obviously, there can be arguments in favor of either kind of projection, but Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs are generally regarded as more mathematically robust and scientific. If you're looking at all these numbers, then, slightly favor the more pessimistic ones. They even reflect the arrival of Candelario. Despite that, they report that it's a long shot for the Cubs to make it to October in 2023. Anyone who says the team has much better than the chance of rolling a particular number on a standard die is trying to sell you something. That doesn't really matter now, though. If the Cubs were sellers again at this deadline, Jed Hoyer's and David Ross's seats both would have heated up quickly. More importantly, though fans have come back to Wrigley Field in response to a strong start and some encouraging offseason moves, the Ricketts family knows that they can't afford much more abject losing. Once the team reeled off several consecutive wins last week, the thing was cinched. Buying at this deadline made much more sense than selling, or even than standing pat, because the Cubs (as a corporation, as a baseball franchise, and as a fan base) will gain much more in the event that they succeed in this race than they will lose in the event that they fail. Obviously, there has to be a mental restrictor plate there for Hoyer and Carter Hawkins. They need to gauge whether particular opportunities allow them to be in better position than this at this time next year, because they can't afford to go backward in a desperate attempt to cash in on this one imperfect opportunity. Still, making the attempt is important, and they will certainly not have a good chance of success if they don't finish the job they've started and bolster the pitching staff before 5 PM Central. View full article
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The Cubs (along with the Brewers and Twins) are among potential landing spots for Arizona Diamondbacks reliever Andrew Chafin, according to a tweet from Jon Heyman. There's no question the Cubs are in the market for a lefty reliever, and old friend and failed starter Chafin would be like slipping into a comfortable pair of old sneakers. I think, though, that the Cubs are trying to buy a new pair instead. This feels like a fallback maneuver, should their pursuit of both Aaron Bummer and Brooks Raley come to naught. In fact, that might be the case for all three of the teams Heyman listed. What do you think? A return engagement for Chafin?
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The Cubs (along with the Brewers and Twins) are among potential landing spots for Arizona Diamondbacks reliever Andrew Chafin, according to a tweet from Jon Heyman. There's no question the Cubs are in the market for a lefty reliever, and old friend and failed starter Chafin would be like slipping into a comfortable pair of old sneakers. I think, though, that the Cubs are trying to buy a new pair instead. This feels like a fallback maneuver, should their pursuit of both Aaron Bummer and Brooks Raley come to naught. In fact, that might be the case for all three of the teams Heyman listed. What do you think? A return engagement for Chafin? View full rumor
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Had the Cubs been more consistent throughout David Ross's tenure, or even within this season, things might be different. Had Marcus Stroman stopped his personal skid last night, rather than exacerbating the fan base's well-founded fears that he's becoming unreliable, things might be different. As it stands, though, the Cubs currently ride a two-game losing streak. That it comes on the back of an eight-game winning streak is cold comfort, because the Cubs dug themselves too deep a hole in May to lose three in a row (including two home games to the first-place Reds) now. The pressure of meaningful baseball in the dog days of summer is part of the fun. It's a minor burden but a major privilege. It's not a bad thing that, for the first time since 2019, a packed house at Wrigley Field will cheer on a team that truly needs to win a particular game. It's just a nervous feeling, because on that previous occasion, the Cubs got their backs and spirits broken by the eventual division champion Cardinals. The time before that series, in October 2018, they lost back-to-back must-win games to the Brewers and Rockies and saw their season end in frustration. Those were lousy enough feelings, but they came at the ends of the respective seasons, and both of those teams were depleted by injury and the vagaries of the schedule. This team just had a jolt of a trade deadline, adding multiple valuable pieces in order to gear up for a charge to the top of the table. This team has two more months of games in front of them, no matter what. It would be even more cruelly and painfully deflating to flop in this pivotal series than it was to lose those games late in 2018 and 2019. The better precedent for the danger the team faces now is 2001, when they acquired Fred McGriff to bolster an anemic lineup and try to hold onto first place, only to come unraveled and begin tumbling out of the race in August. This team can be better than that one was. That team was made of Sammy Sosa and baling wire. This team sends its All-Star ace, Justin Steele, to the mound tonight, and will offer its new-look lineup in answer to the Reds' proffer of journeyman hurler Ben Lively. The ghosts and the demons don't need to rule anything. The Cubs can and should win tonight. They should arrest this brief moment of negative momentum and reverse it, beginning the project of at least splitting (and ideally, still, winning) this series and eventually catching the Reds. Steele needs to be sharp. He met the moment last week in St. Louis, and he figures to be ready tonight. The crowd should be in full throat again, because despite the aggravations and disappointments of Monday night's loss--another enervating Stroman dud, and several missed offensive opportunities late, resulting in a one-run defeat--they were supportive and undaunted Monday night. The players in the dugout have talent and confidence. The fans have healthily elevated expectations. Now (gulp) the team just has to deliver on them.
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It's usually a throwaway term. It's usually true that there are no must-win games in August. On Tuesday night at Wrigley Field, though, the Cubs play a must-win game. That's a privilege, and they have to embrace it. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports Had the Cubs been more consistent throughout David Ross's tenure, or even within this season, things might be different. Had Marcus Stroman stopped his personal skid last night, rather than exacerbating the fan base's well-founded fears that he's becoming unreliable, things might be different. As it stands, though, the Cubs currently ride a two-game losing streak. That it comes on the back of an eight-game winning streak is cold comfort, because the Cubs dug themselves too deep a hole in May to lose three in a row (including two home games to the first-place Reds) now. The pressure of meaningful baseball in the dog days of summer is part of the fun. It's a minor burden but a major privilege. It's not a bad thing that, for the first time since 2019, a packed house at Wrigley Field will cheer on a team that truly needs to win a particular game. It's just a nervous feeling, because on that previous occasion, the Cubs got their backs and spirits broken by the eventual division champion Cardinals. The time before that series, in October 2018, they lost back-to-back must-win games to the Brewers and Rockies and saw their season end in frustration. Those were lousy enough feelings, but they came at the ends of the respective seasons, and both of those teams were depleted by injury and the vagaries of the schedule. This team just had a jolt of a trade deadline, adding multiple valuable pieces in order to gear up for a charge to the top of the table. This team has two more months of games in front of them, no matter what. It would be even more cruelly and painfully deflating to flop in this pivotal series than it was to lose those games late in 2018 and 2019. The better precedent for the danger the team faces now is 2001, when they acquired Fred McGriff to bolster an anemic lineup and try to hold onto first place, only to come unraveled and begin tumbling out of the race in August. This team can be better than that one was. That team was made of Sammy Sosa and baling wire. This team sends its All-Star ace, Justin Steele, to the mound tonight, and will offer its new-look lineup in answer to the Reds' proffer of journeyman hurler Ben Lively. The ghosts and the demons don't need to rule anything. The Cubs can and should win tonight. They should arrest this brief moment of negative momentum and reverse it, beginning the project of at least splitting (and ideally, still, winning) this series and eventually catching the Reds. Steele needs to be sharp. He met the moment last week in St. Louis, and he figures to be ready tonight. The crowd should be in full throat again, because despite the aggravations and disappointments of Monday night's loss--another enervating Stroman dud, and several missed offensive opportunities late, resulting in a one-run defeat--they were supportive and undaunted Monday night. The players in the dugout have talent and confidence. The fans have healthily elevated expectations. Now (gulp) the team just has to deliver on them. View full article
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There are mystery teams in the mix for Mets starter and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander as the trade deadline nears, according to Jon Heyman. He lists the Dodgers and Astros as the non-mystery suitors, so maybe the mystery team is really just the Orioles, who have been mentioned in connection with him elsewhere. Still, it's worth a mention that the Mets paid down Max Scherzer's deal enormously in order to juice the prospect return in their recent trade with the Rangers. In fact, Steve Cohen is making a habit of that tactic, continuing to carry the salaries even of players shipped off to other teams. He's bearing the luxury tax burden even as the team is disassembled, to maximize the talent the team can acquire. If the Mets are willing to do that with Verlander's humongous 2023 salary, and to eat a chunk of his $43 million and change in 2024, would you give up one of the Cubs system's top prospects to (finally) make Verlander a Cub? It sounds crazy, but since this wouldn't be a pure rental and it would be a difference-maker in the NL Central, I'm not sure at all that it is. Photo Credit: © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
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There are mystery teams in the mix for Mets starter and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander as the trade deadline nears, according to Jon Heyman. He lists the Dodgers and Astros as the non-mystery suitors, so maybe the mystery team is really just the Orioles, who have been mentioned in connection with him elsewhere. Still, it's worth a mention that the Mets paid down Max Scherzer's deal enormously in order to juice the prospect return in their recent trade with the Rangers. In fact, Steve Cohen is making a habit of that tactic, continuing to carry the salaries even of players shipped off to other teams. He's bearing the luxury tax burden even as the team is disassembled, to maximize the talent the team can acquire. If the Mets are willing to do that with Verlander's humongous 2023 salary, and to eat a chunk of his $43 million and change in 2024, would you give up one of the Cubs system's top prospects to (finally) make Verlander a Cub? It sounds crazy, but since this wouldn't be a pure rental and it would be a difference-maker in the NL Central, I'm not sure at all that it is. Photo Credit: © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports View full rumor
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The Cubs' lineup has tended toward underachievement and dysfunction too often over the last two years. By acquiring Jeimer Candelario Monday night, they hope they've put an end to that prolonged period of frustration. Image courtesy of © Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports Sadly, Jeimer Candelario has rarely had a talented lineup to call his own since matriculating to the major leagues. He was only very briefly part of the championship-era Cubs, and then only as a fill-in. Once he was traded to the Tigers, he was fully marooned. Detroit didn't immediately collapse, but by the time Candelario found his role with the team, they were well into the decline phase of what was such a good run for the team, from 2011-14. When he's part of a good lineup, though, Candelario is the type of hitter who amplifies the punch and value of others in that group. He's a classic cog-in-the-machine guy. He walks at a high rate, puts the ball in play at an average-plus rate, and hits for healthy (though not gaudy) power. He's more likely to split a gap than clear the fence, but more likely to get a hit than to strike out, too. During his best seasons, he's always been one of his team's two best hitters, but as the third- or fourth-best in a given group, he can really shine. That should be where he fits in, if the Cubs are a functional offense down the stretch. Ever since the World Series-winning core began to deteriorate, the lineup's big weakness has been a dearth of true stars, but it's possible to make up for that with sufficient depth. A balanced lineup without major holes can be as good as one with a few formidable sluggers. Candelario nicely rounds out a group that fits that description, at long last--like a rotation without a Cy Young-caliber ace, but with more strength in the fourth and fifth spots than the competition has. With versatility in his offensive skill set and his defensive positions, Candelario can be especially useful to this fairly modular roster. Against most right-handed pitchers, he should bat second and play third base, with Nico Hoerner sliding down to the sixth or seventh spot in the batting order. Against lefties, he should bat third and play first base, pushing Ian Happ and Yan Gomes down out of the top five in the lineup. In each case, it's an important upgrade. Nick Madrigal is forced from the lineup against righties, and Trey Mancini moves fully into a bench role, rather than playing ineffectually against virtually all lefties. Madrigal has blossomed into a very good defensive third baseman, to the surprise of nearly everyone, so Candelario might be only a small upgrade there. He's a much bigger improvement over Patrick Wisdom, though, and it would seem to be Wisdom or third catcher Miguel Amaya whose roster spot he most directly threatens. Amaya, in particular, will suffer from the fact that Gomes is not likely to be used as often as the designated hitter, making it much less necessary to carry an extra backstop. Of course, the most popular cannon fodder (from the perspective of most Cubs fans) would be Mancini, but that seems plausible only if the Cubs find a taker for the big first baseman's contract. That's not going to happen without Chicago kicking in some prospect talent and getting very little in return, so the better bets are that Wisdom or Amaya will become jetsam in the short term. This deal comes far short of guaranteeing the Cubs a playoff berth, let alone a division title or any kind of October glory. The team still needs to (and will) make further upgrades in the bullpen before the trade deadline officially hits in about 20 hours. This was a tremendous start, though, and Candelario should make the team more fun and more consistently competitive over the final two months of this campaign. View full article
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- 2023 trade deadline
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Sadly, Jeimer Candelario has rarely had a talented lineup to call his own since matriculating to the major leagues. He was only very briefly part of the championship-era Cubs, and then only as a fill-in. Once he was traded to the Tigers, he was fully marooned. Detroit didn't immediately collapse, but by the time Candelario found his role with the team, they were well into the decline phase of what was such a good run for the team, from 2011-14. When he's part of a good lineup, though, Candelario is the type of hitter who amplifies the punch and value of others in that group. He's a classic cog-in-the-machine guy. He walks at a high rate, puts the ball in play at an average-plus rate, and hits for healthy (though not gaudy) power. He's more likely to split a gap than clear the fence, but more likely to get a hit than to strike out, too. During his best seasons, he's always been one of his team's two best hitters, but as the third- or fourth-best in a given group, he can really shine. That should be where he fits in, if the Cubs are a functional offense down the stretch. Ever since the World Series-winning core began to deteriorate, the lineup's big weakness has been a dearth of true stars, but it's possible to make up for that with sufficient depth. A balanced lineup without major holes can be as good as one with a few formidable sluggers. Candelario nicely rounds out a group that fits that description, at long last--like a rotation without a Cy Young-caliber ace, but with more strength in the fourth and fifth spots than the competition has. With versatility in his offensive skill set and his defensive positions, Candelario can be especially useful to this fairly modular roster. Against most right-handed pitchers, he should bat second and play third base, with Nico Hoerner sliding down to the sixth or seventh spot in the batting order. Against lefties, he should bat third and play first base, pushing Ian Happ and Yan Gomes down out of the top five in the lineup. In each case, it's an important upgrade. Nick Madrigal is forced from the lineup against righties, and Trey Mancini moves fully into a bench role, rather than playing ineffectually against virtually all lefties. Madrigal has blossomed into a very good defensive third baseman, to the surprise of nearly everyone, so Candelario might be only a small upgrade there. He's a much bigger improvement over Patrick Wisdom, though, and it would seem to be Wisdom or third catcher Miguel Amaya whose roster spot he most directly threatens. Amaya, in particular, will suffer from the fact that Gomes is not likely to be used as often as the designated hitter, making it much less necessary to carry an extra backstop. Of course, the most popular cannon fodder (from the perspective of most Cubs fans) would be Mancini, but that seems plausible only if the Cubs find a taker for the big first baseman's contract. That's not going to happen without Chicago kicking in some prospect talent and getting very little in return, so the better bets are that Wisdom or Amaya will become jetsam in the short term. This deal comes far short of guaranteeing the Cubs a playoff berth, let alone a division title or any kind of October glory. The team still needs to (and will) make further upgrades in the bullpen before the trade deadline officially hits in about 20 hours. This was a tremendous start, though, and Candelario should make the team more fun and more consistently competitive over the final two months of this campaign.
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We knew the Cubs wouldn't be done when they acquired Jeimer Candelario earlier tonight. Now, they've made what is likely to be the first of multiple moves to bolster and deepen their bullpen. When he's right--and especially when he has control of all that funk and that raw stuff--Cuas can be nasty. He's as much a project as an immediate-impact addition, but this is a nimble bit of 40-man roster management. On the heels of the announcement earlier Monday that Pete Crow-Armstrong is headed to Iowa to join the Triple-A roster, this deal moves Velazquez out of the I-Cubs' crowded outfield picture, keeps the 40-man picture balanced, and lets the Cubs' pitching development infrastructure dig in with a pitcher who gives them plenty with which to work. View full article
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- 2023 trade deadline
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The prize here is a low-wattage one, but Jose Cuas will slot into the middle relief group from the right side. To get him, the team had to bid adieu to Nelson Velazquez, whose promising power was never quite at his full command, due to the holes in his game Cuas, 29, theoretically has the same five and a half years of club control remaining as has Velazquez, but in reality, neither is the type of player who is likely to achieve six-year free agency. Cuas doesn't have especially impressive numbers this year, or a track record that makes him a natural target. The first thing to ask about players like that is: what did the Cubs see in him? In this case, though, that's not too hard to answer. When he's right--and especially when he has control of all that funk and that raw stuff--Cuas can be nasty. He's as much a project as an immediate-impact addition, but this is a nimble bit of 40-man roster management. On the heels of the announcement earlier Monday that Pete Crow-Armstrong is headed to Iowa to join the Triple-A roster, this deal moves Velazquez out of the I-Cubs' crowded outfield picture, keeps the 40-man picture balanced, and lets the Cubs' pitching development infrastructure dig in with a pitcher who gives them plenty with which to work.
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- 2023 trade deadline
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The Cubs front office has thrown down the gauntlet. They're not only holding onto Cody Bellinger, but acquiring the best impending free-agent hitter on the trade market, instead. As I wrote in the aforementioned piece, Candelario is a galvanizing addition to a lineup that already led baseball in runs scored during July. His arrival only exacerbates the uncertainty around Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom, but they become much less important figures, which is the point of a trade like this at this stage of a pennant race. Candelario can credibly bat in the top half of the batting order against both lefties and righties. He adds power that Madrigal couldn't and is an on-base threat Wisdom can't be. He's a more experienced defender than either, and though defensive metrics have had a mercurial relationship with him, the eye test says he's smoother and lower-effort there than either of the incumbents. He's also enjoying one of his good years, by those inconstant numbers. What a difference a year makes, for everyone involved in this deal. Candelario was non-tendered by the Tigers this past winter, after a brutal season in which he batted .217/.272/.361. This year, however, he's batting .258/.342/.481. On the flip side, both Made and Herz had some helium at this time last year, but neither has distinguished themselves in their tests in 2023. Each still has upside--Made as a glove-first shortstop, Herz as a stuff-over-command fourth starter or a very interesting reliever--but they're no longer the somewhat shiny objects they were a year ago. It's funny, how nicely Candelario has grown into exactly the player he projected to be when many of us became aware of him as a Cubs farmhand over a decade ago. He draws walks, he hits more doubles than home runs, and he acquits himself in the field. He's a solidly above-average (though rarely star-caliber) third baseman, with the same shape of production one would have guessed he would provide by watching him in Tennessee or Iowa in 2016. Now, the Cubs will be the ones reaping the rewards of that successful development. View full article
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TRADE: Cubs Acquire Jeimer Candelario from Washington Nationals
Matthew Trueblood posted an article in Cubs
Six years after being traded to the Tigers, Jeimer Candelario returns to the Cubs organization, where he'll become the everyday third baseman as the Cubs pursue an NL Central crown. As I wrote in the aforementioned piece, Candelario is a galvanizing addition to a lineup that already led baseball in runs scored during July. His arrival only exacerbates the uncertainty around Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom, but they become much less important figures, which is the point of a trade like this at this stage of a pennant race. Candelario can credibly bat in the top half of the batting order against both lefties and righties. He adds power that Madrigal couldn't and is an on-base threat Wisdom can't be. He's a more experienced defender than either, and though defensive metrics have had a mercurial relationship with him, the eye test says he's smoother and lower-effort there than either of the incumbents. He's also enjoying one of his good years, by those inconstant numbers. What a difference a year makes, for everyone involved in this deal. Candelario was non-tendered by the Tigers this past winter, after a brutal season in which he batted .217/.272/.361. This year, however, he's batting .258/.342/.481. On the flip side, both Made and Herz had some helium at this time last year, but neither has distinguished themselves in their tests in 2023. Each still has upside--Made as a glove-first shortstop, Herz as a stuff-over-command fourth starter or a very interesting reliever--but they're no longer the somewhat shiny objects they were a year ago. It's funny, how nicely Candelario has grown into exactly the player he projected to be when many of us became aware of him as a Cubs farmhand over a decade ago. He draws walks, he hits more doubles than home runs, and he acquits himself in the field. He's a solidly above-average (though rarely star-caliber) third baseman, with the same shape of production one would have guessed he would provide by watching him in Tennessee or Iowa in 2016. Now, the Cubs will be the ones reaping the rewards of that successful development. -
Yeah I'm having trouble reading that market. There are a lot of suitors, but they all seem less than desperate. Maybe we're guessing at how good a poker player Mike Rizzo is.
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- 2023 trade deadline
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Oh, it’s *definitely* not the case that I expect anyone to think one is a star, least of all a particular one. I think there’s a good chance one of them is a helpful regular, and I think the Cubs need to figure out which one and act decisively, and I think that’s hard because they’re out of time and their information is deeply imperfect. So. 🤷🏼♂️.
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- 2023 trade deadline
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After going 11-5 in the decisive space between the All-Star break and July 31, the Cubs no longer have a tough decision in whether to buy or sell. Now, they face a more daunting, complicated one, with the same deadline on it. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports A year and a half ago, it felt very much as though the Cubs might need to choose between Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal. One would be their second baseman of the future, but the other would struggle to find any long-term home, and might need to be jettisoned in order to build a functional roster. Not since the 1990s have teams' pitching usage choices allowed for a pure backup second baseman, after all. Then, the 2022 season happened. Madrigal endured frustration and injury, and although he finished strong, he made no compelling case for himself as a starting regular in the majors. Yet, Hoerner left the door open, by proving that he had the capacity to acquit himself at shortstop, in addition to hitting enough to bat near the top of the order on a credible team. That's why Madrigal was able to get a meaningful September audition, in which he looked good, and in turn, that's why he stuck with the Cubs even after the team added Dansby Swanson over the winter. Because Hoerner could be the backup shortstop from his position at second, Madrigal could be a bench player even while largely limited to second base. Obviously, much has changed even since then. Madrigal has, when healthy, had a much better 2023, especially over the last two months. That's the span during which, because of Patrick Wisdom's injuries and inconsistency, Madrigal has become the team's apparent top choice to play third base. It wouldn't have occurred to anyone to put the diminutive Madrigal at third base if exigency hadn't demanded it, but (after a few rocky showings at the start) he's demonstrated above-average ability at that spot. He's also batting .323/.397/.462 since he took over this role on June 9, although that sample is fewer than 80 plate appearances, because he missed most of a month with a hamstring strain. The rub lies in the fact that Madrigal seems (and certainly believes, based on his comments earlier this year during a sojourn in Iowa) to need to be in the lineup almost daily in order to stay in the rhythm necessary to have success with his approach and skill set--to wit, his lack of any power of which to speak. A player who can only play well if they play very often puts more pressure on themselves and the team, because they have to be allotted a daily spot in a way that modern rosters usually do only for stars. Worse, Madrigal is not durable, so to build the best version of this team around him at third base requires having a second, competent third baseman on hand who can be more successful in limited playing time. Here we reach the new dilemma facing the organization. The Cubs no longer need to choose between Madrigal and Hoerner; that would now be a cruelly easy choice. Instead, they need to choose between Madrigal and Christopher Morel. It's not a direct position battle, per se, because the Cubs have proven (and Morel has affirmed, with his play when called upon in semi-emergencies) that Morel is not a third baseman in their eyes. Still, his recent production has forced them to put him in the lineup nearly every day. Often, he's the designated hitter. At this point, because Trey Mancini's contract is a hurdle in dealing with first base or in adding high-salary players at this deadline, third base and DH are the two places where the team can plausibly upgrade the lineup. That means moving on from either Morel (despite his raw production, he's been so up-and-down, and his lack of a position hurts the team's modularity and flexibility) or Madrigal (whose success, on both sides of the ledger, seems so fragile, and who could get hurt again at any moment). They could trade for some slightly better version of Wisdom and banish the current iteration, but if both Morel and Madrigal have to play every day, what would that really achieve? For the balance of this season, it might work to have Morel and Madrigal continue in their roles. However, this deadline is an opportunity to answer a couple of medium-term questions at low cost, or even at a profit, without hurting the 2023 club's chances. To miss that window would be a failure. Thus, the front office has to consider trading one of the two, as part of a maneuver in which they acquire some veteran bat and a controllable pitcher to bolster the staff. Choosing between these two is like choosing between apples and garlic. They're so different, and they offer such different sets of possible rewards and challenges, that it feels strange to set them in rivalry with one another. If the Cubs are going to make a decisive, organization-building, winning move at this deadline, though, it will probably have to involve knowing which of these two is part of their long-term plans. View full article
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A year and a half ago, it felt very much as though the Cubs might need to choose between Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal. One would be their second baseman of the future, but the other would struggle to find any long-term home, and might need to be jettisoned in order to build a functional roster. Not since the 1990s have teams' pitching usage choices allowed for a pure backup second baseman, after all. Then, the 2022 season happened. Madrigal endured frustration and injury, and although he finished strong, he made no compelling case for himself as a starting regular in the majors. Yet, Hoerner left the door open, by proving that he had the capacity to acquit himself at shortstop, in addition to hitting enough to bat near the top of the order on a credible team. That's why Madrigal was able to get a meaningful September audition, in which he looked good, and in turn, that's why he stuck with the Cubs even after the team added Dansby Swanson over the winter. Because Hoerner could be the backup shortstop from his position at second, Madrigal could be a bench player even while largely limited to second base. Obviously, much has changed even since then. Madrigal has, when healthy, had a much better 2023, especially over the last two months. That's the span during which, because of Patrick Wisdom's injuries and inconsistency, Madrigal has become the team's apparent top choice to play third base. It wouldn't have occurred to anyone to put the diminutive Madrigal at third base if exigency hadn't demanded it, but (after a few rocky showings at the start) he's demonstrated above-average ability at that spot. He's also batting .323/.397/.462 since he took over this role on June 9, although that sample is fewer than 80 plate appearances, because he missed most of a month with a hamstring strain. The rub lies in the fact that Madrigal seems (and certainly believes, based on his comments earlier this year during a sojourn in Iowa) to need to be in the lineup almost daily in order to stay in the rhythm necessary to have success with his approach and skill set--to wit, his lack of any power of which to speak. A player who can only play well if they play very often puts more pressure on themselves and the team, because they have to be allotted a daily spot in a way that modern rosters usually do only for stars. Worse, Madrigal is not durable, so to build the best version of this team around him at third base requires having a second, competent third baseman on hand who can be more successful in limited playing time. Here we reach the new dilemma facing the organization. The Cubs no longer need to choose between Madrigal and Hoerner; that would now be a cruelly easy choice. Instead, they need to choose between Madrigal and Christopher Morel. It's not a direct position battle, per se, because the Cubs have proven (and Morel has affirmed, with his play when called upon in semi-emergencies) that Morel is not a third baseman in their eyes. Still, his recent production has forced them to put him in the lineup nearly every day. Often, he's the designated hitter. At this point, because Trey Mancini's contract is a hurdle in dealing with first base or in adding high-salary players at this deadline, third base and DH are the two places where the team can plausibly upgrade the lineup. That means moving on from either Morel (despite his raw production, he's been so up-and-down, and his lack of a position hurts the team's modularity and flexibility) or Madrigal (whose success, on both sides of the ledger, seems so fragile, and who could get hurt again at any moment). They could trade for some slightly better version of Wisdom and banish the current iteration, but if both Morel and Madrigal have to play every day, what would that really achieve? For the balance of this season, it might work to have Morel and Madrigal continue in their roles. However, this deadline is an opportunity to answer a couple of medium-term questions at low cost, or even at a profit, without hurting the 2023 club's chances. To miss that window would be a failure. Thus, the front office has to consider trading one of the two, as part of a maneuver in which they acquire some veteran bat and a controllable pitcher to bolster the staff. Choosing between these two is like choosing between apples and garlic. They're so different, and they offer such different sets of possible rewards and challenges, that it feels strange to set them in rivalry with one another. If the Cubs are going to make a decisive, organization-building, winning move at this deadline, though, it will probably have to involve knowing which of these two is part of their long-term plans.
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On Sunday, the Cubs finally lost a game, but they'd already spent the previous week securing their position as buyers at this trade deadline. Two players were the subjects of Cubs-specific rumors that day. Are they the right fits? In an appearance on Marquee Network, 670 The Score baseball reporter Bruce Levine further turned up the heat of those rumors, naming the same two players in an independent way. Both guys could have the same source, of course, but it's impossible to dismiss either mention, in light of the other. It's surprising that we've reached this point with Bednar rumors, because a deal that satisfies the Pirates with the notion of sending an elite reliever to a division rival (while not turning the stomachs of the Cubs front office or their fans) seems so difficult to cobble together. He's a dominant arm. He's struck out over 32 percent of the batters he's faced since the start of 2021, without the complicating walk problems that usually come with stuff that overwhelming. His four-seamer, curveball, and splitter form an almost Platonic ideal of the closer's repertoire, and he commands all three offerings well. Presumably, the Pirates wouldn't even be open to moving him, but for the fact that he will reach arbitration eligibility this winter and start making significant money. Even given that willingness to listen, though, you have to figure Pittsburgh would set a prohibitive price on him when a team like the Cubs calls. The Bucs have to be hoping that they'll be contenders again within the term of Bednar's team control, and they don't want to run into Bednar in the ninth inning of some division-deciding September showdown in 2025. That hypothetical concern might be surmountable, but because it exists, the Pirates would want more for Bednar than the Cubs seem likely to pay. After all, flipping the idea on its head, the Cubs wouldn't want to have Kevin Alcantara hit a game-winning home run against them in two years, be it off Bednar or (because relievers are unreliable and injuries happen and who knows?) someone worse to whom they'd had to turn. Let's set all that irrationality aside a moment, though. When we do so, we can say: Bednar would be a perfect, even sensational addition to this roster. The Cubs need better bullpen depth, and adding to the top of the hierarchy (moving even the impressive Adbert Alzolay down a rung) is more effective and tempting than plugging someone new into the third or fourth place in line. The window of team control is a perfect match for the Cubs' hoped-for rise to sustainable excellence, and it's the perfect time for a closer (rewarded, if anything, too much by the arbitration system) to move from a small-market team to one of the biggest-market ones in baseball. Imagine, then, that the Cubs pay some hefty prospect price for Bednar. Now, further imagine that they pony up the (lesser) price for Candelario, completing a lineup that already looks increasingly viable. Assuming (as one should, if they really made this twinned move) that the team doesn't subtract meaningfully from their big-league roster in the process, adding those two to the current roster would make the Cubs not only credible co-favorites in the NL Central, but viable threats to the Dodgers and to Atlanta if they advance in October. For various reasons, it's unlikely that we see either player don a Cubs uniform this week. There are many other suitors for Candelario, and we've already amply explored the externalities that might prevent a Bednar deal. Still, given the fits, the depth of the Cubs' farm system, and these two reports from people who rarely raise true red herrings, this is the scenario that intrigues me most as the deadline rushes toward us. For my money, there's no realistic haul the team could manage that would be more exciting or helpful. View full article
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In a pair of tweets Sunday, Mike Rodriguez of The DR Baseball Show reported that the Cubs were targeting Pirates closer David Bednar and Nationals third baseman Jeimer Candelario in trade discussions. Rodriguez does much of his writing and reporting in Spanish and flies well below the radar of most anglophone fans, but he's based in Chicago and has a history of being plugged into Cubs affairs, so those reports carried some weight on their own. In an appearance on Marquee Network, 670 The Score baseball reporter Bruce Levine further turned up the heat of those rumors, naming the same two players in an independent way. Both guys could have the same source, of course, but it's impossible to dismiss either mention, in light of the other. It's surprising that we've reached this point with Bednar rumors, because a deal that satisfies the Pirates with the notion of sending an elite reliever to a division rival (while not turning the stomachs of the Cubs front office or their fans) seems so difficult to cobble together. He's a dominant arm. He's struck out over 32 percent of the batters he's faced since the start of 2021, without the complicating walk problems that usually come with stuff that overwhelming. His four-seamer, curveball, and splitter form an almost Platonic ideal of the closer's repertoire, and he commands all three offerings well. Presumably, the Pirates wouldn't even be open to moving him, but for the fact that he will reach arbitration eligibility this winter and start making significant money. Even given that willingness to listen, though, you have to figure Pittsburgh would set a prohibitive price on him when a team like the Cubs calls. The Bucs have to be hoping that they'll be contenders again within the term of Bednar's team control, and they don't want to run into Bednar in the ninth inning of some division-deciding September showdown in 2025. That hypothetical concern might be surmountable, but because it exists, the Pirates would want more for Bednar than the Cubs seem likely to pay. After all, flipping the idea on its head, the Cubs wouldn't want to have Kevin Alcantara hit a game-winning home run against them in two years, be it off Bednar or (because relievers are unreliable and injuries happen and who knows?) someone worse to whom they'd had to turn. Let's set all that irrationality aside a moment, though. When we do so, we can say: Bednar would be a perfect, even sensational addition to this roster. The Cubs need better bullpen depth, and adding to the top of the hierarchy (moving even the impressive Adbert Alzolay down a rung) is more effective and tempting than plugging someone new into the third or fourth place in line. The window of team control is a perfect match for the Cubs' hoped-for rise to sustainable excellence, and it's the perfect time for a closer (rewarded, if anything, too much by the arbitration system) to move from a small-market team to one of the biggest-market ones in baseball. Imagine, then, that the Cubs pay some hefty prospect price for Bednar. Now, further imagine that they pony up the (lesser) price for Candelario, completing a lineup that already looks increasingly viable. Assuming (as one should, if they really made this twinned move) that the team doesn't subtract meaningfully from their big-league roster in the process, adding those two to the current roster would make the Cubs not only credible co-favorites in the NL Central, but viable threats to the Dodgers and to Atlanta if they advance in October. For various reasons, it's unlikely that we see either player don a Cubs uniform this week. There are many other suitors for Candelario, and we've already amply explored the externalities that might prevent a Bednar deal. Still, given the fits, the depth of the Cubs' farm system, and these two reports from people who rarely raise true red herrings, this is the scenario that intrigues me most as the deadline rushes toward us. For my money, there's no realistic haul the team could manage that would be more exciting or helpful.
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They were never the sexiest or most natural targets for the Cubs, but two players who could have slotted into this still-flawed contender are now off the trade block. Where do Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins turn? Image courtesy of © Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports To maximize the utility of Randal Grichuk, you really want to have an outfield corner position open for him. The Cubs don't. Nor does C.J. Cron do anything different than what Trey Mancini is supposed to do, but hasn't been able to do, for this team. In that way, neither was ever an ideal balm for what ails this offense at times, barring the Rockies being willing to take back Mancini in a Cron trade or something. Still and all, it stings to see two potential upgrades to the fringes of the roster removed from the table in one swoop. The Angels traded two pitching prospects to the Rockies to get the deal done, but neither has pitched above Low A ball. They're the kinds of arms of which the Cubs have perhaps 10, so sparing two wouldn't have been especially tough. If this is a signal that the market for rental hitters is less supply-starved and seller-friendly than expected, that's welcome news, but the Cubs now have two fewer such players to pursue, and maybe the lack of available options will now ratchet up prices throughout the league. Now, the Cubs need to find a different way to improve upon what Mancini, Miguel Amaya, and Patrick Wisdom give them from the bottom three spots on the position player hierarchy. (We're assuming, for now, that Tucker Barnhart is going to stick around, even if Amaya would be the more aggressive and potentially rewarding use of the backup catcher's roster spot.) One obvious avenue remains open, in the form of the much-discussed Jeimer Candelario, but it's not yet clear whether the Cubs really want to move Nick Madrigal back into a part-time role. Mark Canha is more akin to Grichuk, with more on-base skills but less power and defensive value. Mets teammate and sometime Cubs farmhand Daniel Vogelbach could do everything Mancini does in terms of hitting and fielding, and then some, but his left-handedness makes him an awkward fit into the puzzle. The buyers so outnumber the sellers at this point that, having missed out on Cron and Grichuk in a single Tweet, the Cubs might now be better-served to start seriously considering which of their internal options (guys like Matt Mervis, Yonathan Perlaza, Nelson Velazquez, or even David Bote) could constitute some worthwhile change from the mix they have right now. There are just under 44 hours left to see how the front office solves this riddle. They might need to get very creative, or they might simply have to overpay for Candelario. In any case, while understandable for multiple reasons, it was a bummer to see them whiff on both Cron and Grichuk, particularly because they just didn't cost anything the Cubs could not afford to have surrendered. View full article
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To maximize the utility of Randal Grichuk, you really want to have an outfield corner position open for him. The Cubs don't. Nor does C.J. Cron do anything different than what Trey Mancini is supposed to do, but hasn't been able to do, for this team. In that way, neither was ever an ideal balm for what ails this offense at times, barring the Rockies being willing to take back Mancini in a Cron trade or something. Still and all, it stings to see two potential upgrades to the fringes of the roster removed from the table in one swoop. The Angels traded two pitching prospects to the Rockies to get the deal done, but neither has pitched above Low A ball. They're the kinds of arms of which the Cubs have perhaps 10, so sparing two wouldn't have been especially tough. If this is a signal that the market for rental hitters is less supply-starved and seller-friendly than expected, that's welcome news, but the Cubs now have two fewer such players to pursue, and maybe the lack of available options will now ratchet up prices throughout the league. Now, the Cubs need to find a different way to improve upon what Mancini, Miguel Amaya, and Patrick Wisdom give them from the bottom three spots on the position player hierarchy. (We're assuming, for now, that Tucker Barnhart is going to stick around, even if Amaya would be the more aggressive and potentially rewarding use of the backup catcher's roster spot.) One obvious avenue remains open, in the form of the much-discussed Jeimer Candelario, but it's not yet clear whether the Cubs really want to move Nick Madrigal back into a part-time role. Mark Canha is more akin to Grichuk, with more on-base skills but less power and defensive value. Mets teammate and sometime Cubs farmhand Daniel Vogelbach could do everything Mancini does in terms of hitting and fielding, and then some, but his left-handedness makes him an awkward fit into the puzzle. The buyers so outnumber the sellers at this point that, having missed out on Cron and Grichuk in a single Tweet, the Cubs might now be better-served to start seriously considering which of their internal options (guys like Matt Mervis, Yonathan Perlaza, Nelson Velazquez, or even David Bote) could constitute some worthwhile change from the mix they have right now. There are just under 44 hours left to see how the front office solves this riddle. They might need to get very creative, or they might simply have to overpay for Candelario. In any case, while understandable for multiple reasons, it was a bummer to see them whiff on both Cron and Grichuk, particularly because they just didn't cost anything the Cubs could not afford to have surrendered.
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This has gotten simple in a big hurry. The Cubs aren't overly optimistic fence-sitters or a buyer/seller hybrid. They're playoff contenders, and they need to spend the next two days getting better. Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports The front office of the 2023 Chicago Cubs isn't in a tough spot. The front office of the 1997 White Sox was. That was a team that tumbled to below .500 by losing six of seven games during the final third of July. That team had a negative run differential, and they just got Robin Ventura back a week before the trade deadline, after he missed nearly 100 games due to injury. That front office made the infamous White Flag Trade that July 31, sending two of the team's key starting pitchers and its closer to the Giants. That might or might not have been the right call, but it was (rightfully) wildly unpopular. That's because a ball club, however much owners and jaded media members might insist otherwise, is a public trust, and the chance to win a division or reach the postseason is a sacred one that the stewards of a club are obligated to respect. To abdicate that duty is to betray the fan base, even if there's a rational, farsighted case for doing it. Now, thanks to their first eight-game winning streak since the year they won the World Series, the Cubs have one of those sacred opportunities. They're not burdened by mixed signals from the team on the field, either in the whole data set of the season or in their recent play. This team is now two games over .500, with the winning streak just part of the reason why their playoff odds are steadily rising. They have four games against the Reds at home this week. They bookend August with home series against the Reds and Brewers, and they bookend September with road series against the Reds and Brewers. They're not on any reasonably drawn borderline between buyer and seller. They're way too in this not to give it their best. That doesn't mean they need to plow under their fields to try to build a dream in this one season. The hope is that this is the first of several competitive seasons over the next decade, and it would be foolish to fritter that chance away by calling too big on a flush draw. I don't like the extent to which we've made deadline activity a defining and primary indicator for every team, every year, anyway. It only means that Hoyer and Carter Hawkins (not to mention the Ricketts family) have a fiduciary duty to make an earnest effort here, and not in the direction of trading Marcus Stroman--or anyone else who can help this team win. We've already written about whom the team could target to upgrade their bullpen (from both the left and the right side), how they might acquire a controllable starter, and a few bats who could hold unique appeal. Now, though, it's time to talk about what a successful big-picture deadline strategy should comprise. Firstly, the Cubs do need relief reinforcements. Gambling on the consistency and reliability of Michael Fulmer, Julian Merryweather, Mark Leiter Jr., and several younger arms is a recipe for heartbreak at the end of the season. Besides, the Cubs are running out of healthy spare arms on their 40-man roster. They can't have a successful deadline without adding at least one helpful reliever. Secondly, the team should definitely stay engaged on (and eventually acquire) another bat to add to their mix. That could take the form of a bigger-ticket item, but C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk, Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano, and Daniel Vogelbach are all candidates to help them. The bare minimum expectation should be that, over the next two days, the team makes these two small improvements. The only question left, to my eye, is whether or not a starting pitcher the team deems worth splurging on will become available at an appropriate cost. Drew Smyly shouldn't be relied upon, except in long or situational relief, down the stretch, but the team might not find a palatable price in this seller's market for a direct replacement for him. One way or another, the team just needs to demonstrate its resolve, by giving the team the buttresses they'll need to serious threaten to beat the Dodgers or Atlanta in the playoffs, should they get that far. They've run out of acceptable excuses not to do so. View full article
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The front office of the 2023 Chicago Cubs isn't in a tough spot. The front office of the 1997 White Sox was. That was a team that tumbled to below .500 by losing six of seven games during the final third of July. That team had a negative run differential, and they just got Robin Ventura back a week before the trade deadline, after he missed nearly 100 games due to injury. That front office made the infamous White Flag Trade that July 31, sending two of the team's key starting pitchers and its closer to the Giants. That might or might not have been the right call, but it was (rightfully) wildly unpopular. That's because a ball club, however much owners and jaded media members might insist otherwise, is a public trust, and the chance to win a division or reach the postseason is a sacred one that the stewards of a club are obligated to respect. To abdicate that duty is to betray the fan base, even if there's a rational, farsighted case for doing it. Now, thanks to their first eight-game winning streak since the year they won the World Series, the Cubs have one of those sacred opportunities. They're not burdened by mixed signals from the team on the field, either in the whole data set of the season or in their recent play. This team is now two games over .500, with the winning streak just part of the reason why their playoff odds are steadily rising. They have four games against the Reds at home this week. They bookend August with home series against the Reds and Brewers, and they bookend September with road series against the Reds and Brewers. They're not on any reasonably drawn borderline between buyer and seller. They're way too in this not to give it their best. That doesn't mean they need to plow under their fields to try to build a dream in this one season. The hope is that this is the first of several competitive seasons over the next decade, and it would be foolish to fritter that chance away by calling too big on a flush draw. I don't like the extent to which we've made deadline activity a defining and primary indicator for every team, every year, anyway. It only means that Hoyer and Carter Hawkins (not to mention the Ricketts family) have a fiduciary duty to make an earnest effort here, and not in the direction of trading Marcus Stroman--or anyone else who can help this team win. We've already written about whom the team could target to upgrade their bullpen (from both the left and the right side), how they might acquire a controllable starter, and a few bats who could hold unique appeal. Now, though, it's time to talk about what a successful big-picture deadline strategy should comprise. Firstly, the Cubs do need relief reinforcements. Gambling on the consistency and reliability of Michael Fulmer, Julian Merryweather, Mark Leiter Jr., and several younger arms is a recipe for heartbreak at the end of the season. Besides, the Cubs are running out of healthy spare arms on their 40-man roster. They can't have a successful deadline without adding at least one helpful reliever. Secondly, the team should definitely stay engaged on (and eventually acquire) another bat to add to their mix. That could take the form of a bigger-ticket item, but C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk, Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano, and Daniel Vogelbach are all candidates to help them. The bare minimum expectation should be that, over the next two days, the team makes these two small improvements. The only question left, to my eye, is whether or not a starting pitcher the team deems worth splurging on will become available at an appropriate cost. Drew Smyly shouldn't be relied upon, except in long or situational relief, down the stretch, but the team might not find a palatable price in this seller's market for a direct replacement for him. One way or another, the team just needs to demonstrate its resolve, by giving the team the buttresses they'll need to serious threaten to beat the Dodgers or Atlanta in the playoffs, should they get that far. They've run out of acceptable excuses not to do so.

