Matthew Trueblood

They were never the sexiest or most natural targets for the Cubs, but two players who could have slotted into this still-flawed contender are now off the trade block. Where do Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins turn? Image courtesy of © Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports To maximize the utility of Randal Grichuk, you really want to have an outfield corner position open for him. The Cubs don't. Nor does C.J. Cron do anything different than what Trey Mancini is supposed to do, but hasn't been able to do, for this team. In that way, neither was ever an ideal balm for what ails this offense at times, barring the Rockies being willing to take back Mancini in a Cron trade or something. Still and all, it stings to see two potential upgrades to the fringes of the roster removed from the table in one swoop. The Angels traded two pitching prospects to the Rockies to get the deal done, but neither has pitched above Low A ball. They're the kinds of arms of which the Cubs have perhaps 10, so sparing two wouldn't have been especially tough. If this is a signal that the market for rental hitters is less supply-starved and seller-friendly than expected, that's welcome news, but the Cubs now have two fewer such players to pursue, and maybe the lack of available options will now ratchet up prices throughout the league. Now, the Cubs need to find a different way to improve upon what Mancini, Miguel Amaya, and Patrick Wisdom give them from the bottom three spots on the position player hierarchy. (We're assuming, for now, that Tucker Barnhart is going to stick around, even if Amaya would be the more aggressive and potentially rewarding use of the backup catcher's roster spot.) One obvious avenue remains open, in the form of the much-discussed Jeimer Candelario, but it's not yet clear whether the Cubs really want to move Nick Madrigal back into a part-time role. Mark Canha is more akin to Grichuk, with more on-base skills but less power and defensive value. Mets teammate and sometime Cubs farmhand Daniel Vogelbach could do everything Mancini does in terms of hitting and fielding, and then some, but his left-handedness makes him an awkward fit into the puzzle. The buyers so outnumber the sellers at this point that, having missed out on Cron and Grichuk in a single Tweet, the Cubs might now be better-served to start seriously considering which of their internal options (guys like Matt Mervis, Yonathan Perlaza, Nelson Velazquez, or even David Bote) could constitute some worthwhile change from the mix they have right now. There are just under 44 hours left to see how the front office solves this riddle. They might need to get very creative, or they might simply have to overpay for Candelario. In any case, while understandable for multiple reasons, it was a bummer to see them whiff on both Cron and Grichuk, particularly because they just didn't cost anything the Cubs could not afford to have surrendered. View full article

Yeah, the names in this piece are explicitly the bare minimum. Although also, doing any more/getting anyone better might be so difficult as to be indistinguishable from impossible. Hard to tell whether anyone actually good is actually available.

This has gotten simple in a big hurry. The Cubs aren't overly optimistic fence-sitters or a buyer/seller hybrid. They're playoff contenders, and they need to spend the next two days getting better. Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports The front office of the 2023 Chicago Cubs isn't in a tough spot. The front office of the 1997 White Sox was. That was a team that tumbled to below .500 by losing six of seven games during the final third of July. That team had a negative run differential, and they just got Robin Ventura back a week before the trade deadline, after he missed nearly 100 games due to injury. That front office made the infamous White Flag Trade that July 31, sending two of the team's key starting pitchers and its closer to the Giants. That might or might not have been the right call, but it was (rightfully) wildly unpopular. That's because a ball club, however much owners and jaded media members might insist otherwise, is a public trust, and the chance to win a division or reach the postseason is a sacred one that the stewards of a club are obligated to respect. To abdicate that duty is to betray the fan base, even if there's a rational, farsighted case for doing it. Now, thanks to their first eight-game winning streak since the year they won the World Series, the Cubs have one of those sacred opportunities. They're not burdened by mixed signals from the team on the field, either in the whole data set of the season or in their recent play. This team is now two games over .500, with the winning streak just part of the reason why their playoff odds are steadily rising. They have four games against the Reds at home this week. They bookend August with home series against the Reds and Brewers, and they bookend September with road series against the Reds and Brewers. They're not on any reasonably drawn borderline between buyer and seller. They're way too in this not to give it their best. That doesn't mean they need to plow under their fields to try to build a dream in this one season. The hope is that this is the first of several competitive seasons over the next decade, and it would be foolish to fritter that chance away by calling too big on a flush draw. I don't like the extent to which we've made deadline activity a defining and primary indicator for every team, every year, anyway. It only means that Hoyer and Carter Hawkins (not to mention the Ricketts family) have a fiduciary duty to make an earnest effort here, and not in the direction of trading Marcus Stroman--or anyone else who can help this team win. We've already written about whom the team could target to upgrade their bullpen (from both the left and the right side), how they might acquire a controllable starter, and a few bats who could hold unique appeal. Now, though, it's time to talk about what a successful big-picture deadline strategy should comprise. Firstly, the Cubs do need relief reinforcements. Gambling on the consistency and reliability of Michael Fulmer, Julian Merryweather, Mark Leiter Jr., and several younger arms is a recipe for heartbreak at the end of the season. Besides, the Cubs are running out of healthy spare arms on their 40-man roster. They can't have a successful deadline without adding at least one helpful reliever. Secondly, the team should definitely stay engaged on (and eventually acquire) another bat to add to their mix. That could take the form of a bigger-ticket item, but C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk, Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano, and Daniel Vogelbach are all candidates to help them. The bare minimum expectation should be that, over the next two days, the team makes these two small improvements. The only question left, to my eye, is whether or not a starting pitcher the team deems worth splurging on will become available at an appropriate cost. Drew Smyly shouldn't be relied upon, except in long or situational relief, down the stretch, but the team might not find a palatable price in this seller's market for a direct replacement for him. One way or another, the team just needs to demonstrate its resolve, by giving the team the buttresses they'll need to serious threaten to beat the Dodgers or Atlanta in the playoffs, should they get that far. They've run out of acceptable excuses not to do so. View full article

They weren't at home and had to do it in the field, but Friday night's Cubs win was, spiritually, a walkoff. It had walkoff energy. Was it the best of their last quarter-century? 1. Aramis Ramirez Extends a Different Winning Streak to Seven, June 2007 There's a certain delight to be taken in the fact that Tauchman's catch extended the Cubs' season-saving winning streak to seven games, too, because so did this landmark moment. That game had even more pathos behind it, with the home crowd humming as the team worked its way back from a 5-0 deficit, and Ramirez capped it with such style that this one might never be topped in Cubs annals. I'm eager to hear what people think of these rankings. There are plenty of good potential entries that didn't even make the cut, but these feel, to me, like the biggest and most worthy ones to celebrate. View full article

The Cubs' thrilling seven-game winning streak should make them unequivocal buyers over the next three and a half days. To make the gamble of chasing a playoff spot pay off, though, they need to bolster their bullpen--significantly. Image courtesy of © Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports There's no way to give Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and Mike Tauchman the official save for Friday night's dramatic win over the Cardinals, but they earned it every bit as much as Adbert Alzolay did. While Alzolay has been tremendous and fun to watch this year, he's still learning to navigate and handle the workload of a high-leverage short reliever, and occasionally, that becomes suddenly and painfully clear. The Cardinals hit him hard Friday night, and he was fortunate to escape. More importantly, though, Alzolay doesn't have much of a supporting cast in the Chicago relief corps right now. Michael Fulmer has been more good than bad, especially in the last month or so, but Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. seem to have used up most of the pixie dust that turned them into dominant middle relievers for a couple of months. They still have good nights, but they need to slide down the bullpen chart to find a home where there's margin for error in most of their appearances. In order for David Ross to do that, Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins need to give him better alternatives. With that in mind, here are a few of the right-handed relievers who could be available and who would make a big difference for the Cubs. Paul Sewald, RHP, Mariners Late Friday night, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted that two MLB executives think the Mariners are open to trading Sewald. That made some sense, given the reporting from Ken Rosenthal Thursday night about the unusual situation Seattle faced heading into the deadline, and the unusual approach Jerry Dipoto is taking. It's immediately worth following, because Sewald, 33, is a top-notch reliever with a year and a half of club control remaining. He's already saved 21 games with a 2.93 ERA for the M's this year, fanning 60 batters in 43 innings pitched. All Sewald has is a four-seamer and a slider, and he only throws 92-93 miles per hour with the heat. Why, then, is he so devastatingly effective? If you've seen him pitch before, you know. If not, here you go. 895d1b22-3d29-4100-8df3-1cfc247fa15d.mp4 From a release point that low and an arm slot that sidearm, his fastball seems to rise and explode like Tom Seaver's. He spins the ball well, utilizes the deception of that warp-speed delivery beautifully, and sets up each of his pitches well using the other. He'd be a big enough acquisition to nudge Alzolay back into a setup role, but if the Cubs prefer, they could also make Sewald the eighth-inning bridge to Alzolay just as easily. This isn't a guy with a reputation and a track record that demand a narrow usage pattern. Adam Ottavino, RHP, Mets Like Sewald, only more so, Ottavino is a low-angle righty whose slider is his main weapon, well into his 30s but still finding ways to get outs. Unlike Sewald, he's showing signs of fading this year, which is why he would cost significantly less in trade. He's gotten a ton of ground balls with his sinker-slider attack this season, though, and the foundation of his previous, more dominant self seems to remain intact. He would be a lower-impact addition, but could still deepen the pitching staff nicely. He has a $6.75-million player option for next season, after a $7.75-million salary (plus some reachable incentives) this year, but that shouldn't be prohibitive for the Cubs. Luis Garcia, RHP, Padres As with Ottavino, here, the Cubs would be taking in a pitcher having a slightly frustrating, disappointing season. Garcia was supposed to be a high-leverage weapon for the high-powered Padres bullpen, but he's struggled this year. After two straight seasons of posting excellent walk rates, he's issued too many free passes. However, he's a flamethrower whose fastball can still touch 99. His slider is still a whiff machine against right-handed batters, and he still induces a lot of weak contact on the ground. He'd be a terrific fit for the Cubs, and the two-year deal he signed with San Diego before 2022 is dirt cheap. As a pure rental, he's unlikely to cost as much as Sewald, though obviously, he'd be a riskier acquisition, overall. Any of these three could have a major impact on the Cubs' bullpen, and they're now a team with clear and serious postseason hopes, so the bullpen matters a lot. Without overpaying and overextending himself, Hoyer needs to make some upgrades to that group. View full article

Here’s something interesting, given the Rosenthal stuff yesterday:

In Ken Rosenthal's latest notes column at The Athletic, he focuses on the Mariners, who might be in an even weirder, more challenging spot than the Cubs. According to Rosenthal, Jerry Dipoto is open to trading one of the team's several good, controllable, young starting pitchers, but only in a deal that would increase (or at least preserve) the team's chances for 2023. Good luck, Jerry. That's a reasonable position to take, hut it makes an actual move involving any of Seattle's starters unlikely. Still, if such a move were to happen, the Cubs could be a fascinating fit. They could make Marcus Stroman an important (though secondary) piece of a deal for, say, Logan Gilbert. The Cubs have young pitching almost as promising as the Mariners' stuff, but a year or two behind them. One of those guys (Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, or even Hayden Wesneski) could be the foundation of a trade. There are other, even wilder fits, too. Christopher Morel could play second base for the Mariners, and that seems to be his best defensive home, by a mile. The Cubs could also inquire on the (presumably very high) price of closer Paul Sewald, who'd be a superb addition to their bullpen and is under team control for 2024, and on the (likely much more realistic) cost of Teoscar Hernandez, who would be a strong right-handed bat for the middle of the lineup. We're going to see fewer pure buy/sell trades this deadline, because there are several teams right where the Cubs and Mariners are. That could make for some interesting trades (and trade rumors) over the coming days, though. View full rumor

An interesting report popped up on Twitter early Thursday. It wasn't from one of the big, national reporters, but sometimes, that's the surest sign that there's real meat on the bone. Whenever Tom drops a little nugget like that, I perk up, because he only shares leads and pieces of intel that pass his sniff test, and because his reports tend to be unsexy but substantial--as opposed to the fluffy bait laid out in hopes of catching clicks or engagement by many others around this time of year. This concept makes sense, too, because while the Guardians still have some hope of catching the Twins in the AL Central, they've signaled some willingness to make lateral moves and look beyond 2023. Meanwhile, the Cubs really do need pitching help, and a name that has already come up in the national rumor mill this month headlines Cleveland's crop of potentially available hurlers. Right now, the Guardians have control of Aaron Civale's services for two more seasons, in addition to this one. Civale turned 28 last month, so he loosely counts as a young, controllable starter. He's not as exciting a name as guys like Logan Gilbert or even Mitch Keller, especially because he doesn't have the velocity or bat-missing stuff typical of above-average starters. He's quietly effective, though, and he could be a good fit for the Cubs' organizational pitching predilections. Civale has a 2.54 ERA in 12 starts for the Guardians, but that significantly overstates his value. He's a mid-rotation starter, and most years, his ERA will hover within the half-run on either side of 4.00. Still, that's valuable, and Civale has made some material adjustments this year. He's developed his cutter into a primary, trusted weapon against both righties and lefties. He's learning to elevate with his high-rise four-seam fastball, which doesn't need to be overpowering in its sheer speed because hitters have to sit on the cutter, instead. Presumably, the cost on Civale will hurt, because the Guardians don't have much reason to move him absent a solid return. On the other hand, though, he's a fourth starter in a good rotation, and a fifth starter in an especially good one. Perhaps Cleveland's bigger concern is paying a backend starter real money, as Civale is set to make over the final two years of his arbitration eligibility. The Cubs could probably get a good conversation started with one of their impressive outfielders at the upper levels--an Owen Caissie, or an Alexander Canario. The former feels too rich for a Civale deal, though, and the latter not enough so. Nelson Velazquez and Yonathan Perlaza might be able to help Cleveland with their outfield bats down the stretch this year, but neither is the type who can lead a trade even for a sub-steller player like Civale. It would make some sense to add Civale as a stabilizing force for the back half of the rotation, in 2023 and over the following two seasons. Acquiring him would be as much a play for 2024 and 2025 (gaining some rough cost certainty and making it easier to decline Kyle Hendricks's club option) as for this year. Figuring out how to land him without denting the 2023 team's chances, though, could be tough. View full article

Wednesday night's comeback on the South Side was the win of the year for the Cubs. They head into St. Louis as buyers, even if the risk that that will change lingers. Jed Hoyer shouldn't wait any longer. Image courtesy of © Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK One thing is becoming increasingly clear, as the Cubs approach the deadline: they're not the team we thought they were. Two months ago, it could not have been clearer that this team's strength was its starting rotation. The offense was inconsistent, the bullpen was uncertain, and the defense was insufficient, but the starters were in good shape. That's no longer clear, at all. In fact, the identity of this team is very much up for debate again, even as they play their best baseball of the season. Already this week, we've documented the woes of Drew Smyly over the past several weeks. Jameson Taillon is getting right, but it's clear that he's not going to be more than a mid-rotation guy for the balance of this season. Since the All-Star break, and even in the few starts before it, even Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele have looked less impressive. Stroman's showing Wednesday night, a second consecutive clunker when the chips were down, is especially concerning. Hoyer still needs to go find a bat to add to this group, but perhaps the more pressing need is on the pitching staff. Javier Assad's reemergence as a versatile relief option is a welcome development, and I've already stated my belief that Smyly would be effective in a short relief role from the left side. Still, this team needs a high-leverage reliever, and they need a starter, too. The Detroit Tigers have plenty of pitching on offer. They're one of the few sellers left on the landscape, and are in need of a further infusion of talent for a merely average farm system that needs to feed a below-average roster. The Cubs could bid on either of two members of the Detroit rotation, and even tie in rental reliever Jose Cisnero as part of any potential deal. The more famous name of the Tigers' trade candidate starters is Eduardo Rodriguez, the former Red Sox southpaw who signed a five-year deal two offseasons ago. Rodriguez can opt out of the balance of his deal at the end of the season, and barring an injury, he's almost certain to do so. He's posted a 2.95 ERA in 15 starts this year, with a strikeout rate right around 26 percent and a walk rate of just 6 percent. With the zip that was missing from his fastball last season back and with excellent command of his cutter to both sides of home plate, he's regained his All-Star form. Earlier this year, I wrote multiple pieces about the Cubs' damaging deficiency in missing bats within the strike zone--especially their starters. Rodriguez is a potential balm for that condition. Of the 153 starters who have induced 300 swings on pitches within the zone this year, every Cubs starter ranks 84th (Jameson Taillon) or lower in whiff rate on such swings. Rodriguez ranks 36th. He fills up the zone, but hitters don't relentlessly put the ball in play when he does. Rodriguez would be a costly acquisition, and a modestly risky one, because should he get hurt or collapse down the stretch, he'd be able to opt in for $49 million over the next three seasons. That very risk might mitigate the acquisition cost a bit, but the Cubs would probably need the Tigers to cover a portion of Rodriguez's 2023 salary in order to stay under the luxury-tax threshold, so count on paying full freight for him if that's the avenue the club pursues. A cheaper (in terms of both money and the talent he could command in trade) alternative might be Michael Lorenzen. On a one-year deal worth $8.5 million, Lorenzen has been a revelation for the Tigers. After a brief misfire early in the season during which he was trying to throw the kitchen sink at everyone, Lorenzen has simplified his approach and found terrific success. He doesn't strike batters out at nearly the rate Rodriguez does, but Lorenzen is pounding the zone more consistently than he ever has before, and he's honed a unique pitch mix that has hitters on the defensive. For some pitchers, the sweeper is a weapon against same-handed batters, and the slider is a different one, needed only against opposite-handed ones. For others, the two pitches are really just slight variations on one another--a bit more depth on one, a bit firmer with the other, that kind of thing. Lorenzen has done something highly unusual, though. His sweeper and his slider are both key to his attack against righties, and they're totally distinct pitches. Their spin directions, and the movement variation from what one would expect based on that spin, are different. Adjusting from one batter to the next, Lorenzen will sometimes pair his sinker with his sweeper, and sometimes use the same four-seamer and slider duo that works for him against lefties. It's a new approach for him, but he's shown admirable feel for it. Against lefties, Lorenzen has found the best way to utilize his extraordinary changeup. He doesn't kill spin on that pitch, the way most pitchers do. The ball doesn't move in an unexpected way based on the direction of his spin, either. He just manages to cut down velocity, without an obvious change in arm speed, and deception does all the work for him. Lorenzen lacks Rodriguez's pedigree. He's also already thrown 101 innings this season, which has to make any acquiring team nervous, because he last topped 115 total innings pitched in 2015. Still, he'll command something valuable, because the market for starting pitchers is always robust and because his improvements seem legitimate. To justify the likely cost of either Rodriguez or Lorenzen, then, the Cubs are going to need to do some one-stop shopping. Jose Cisnero, like Rodriguez and Lorenzen, can become a free agent at the end of this season. He'd be a good fit for the Cubs, with his unusually deep reliever's arsenal and the ability to induce relatively low-value contact most of the time. He's fanned 25.7 percent of opposing batters this year, and he has reverse platoon splits. It's a seller's market. The Cubs would have to give up a better package than we're likely to be comfortable with, no matter which starter is tied to Cisnero. Still, the Cubs' depth on the farm allows us to ponder some very plausible deals. The right range depends on what the Tigers prioritize, but the cost would probably have to include a prospect in the bottom half of the team's top 10 list, as well as a flier further down. That could mean someone as high-ceiling as Owen Caissie, and it could take a bite out of the team's depth at lower levels--pitchers like Michael Arias, Drew Gray, and Brandon Birdsell. Whatever move the team makes on the pitching side needs to leave a little bit of room (especially financially) for a hitter who can supplement the roster. With Nico Hoerner heating back up and the lineup feeling fully functional again, though, the highest-impact move might be to deepen both the rotation and the bullpen for what could be a grueling stretch run. View full article

Heh. See the bottom section of my piece. I agree. The logic of it is sound, but the reality is messy.

According to Jon Morosi, the Marlins are among the teams looking into Cody Bellinger this week. That’s a new and surprising suitor, but with Jazz Chisholm Jr. nursing a strained oblique, the need is there. A realistic fit is trickier. The Cubs are playing their way further and further from seller status. Unless the Marlins included one of their top prospects—arms Max Meyer (on the road back from Tommy John surgery) or Jake Eder, or Cuban emigre and tool shed shortstop Yiddi Cappe—it’s hard to see it working out. Still, it’s an intriguing option, because the Marlins are a hungry (maybe desperate) enough team to overpay a bit. If the Cubs keep winning, this could all be academic. We’re not there yet, though. View full rumor

With the MLB trade deadline just six days away, the Cubs are hotter than they have been since mid-June. They've won six of their last seven games, and have five more against weak opponents before the deadline. That's creating a lot of uncertainty about what they might do, but national reports are starting to bring their thinking into focus. Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports Over the weekend, The Score 670's Bruce Levine reported that the Cubs are more likely to trade Marcus Stroman than to deal Cody Bellinger. Those two are the Cubs' most famous and intriguing trade chips, should they undertake any version of selling at the deadline, but it's Bellinger (and his scorching July) who has generated more widespread buzz. Still, Levine is plugged-in, and his report was not to be taken lightly. Sure enough, during an appearance on the same station Tuesday, Jon Morosi said the same thing. Morosi mentioned that "at least seven or eight" teams are in the market for rental starting pitchers, whereas finding a fit for a position player is always a bit trickier. He also highlighted the fact that, unlike Stroman, Bellinger is eligible to receive a qualifying offer after this season, giving the Cubs an opportunity to get something back for him even if they don't trade him. To complete the trifecta, Ken Rosenthal sounded the same notes in his latest notes piece on The Athletic. When those three people say the same thing, it's a good bet that it's a sound report. Notably, none of them said that the Cubs won't trade Bellinger, and none said they will definitely trade Stroman. They only sketched the probabilities of either deal by setting them in relation to each other. We have no reason to doubt them, but the door is still wide open to them all being wrong. For now, though, let's grant that they're right, and discuss whether and why that makes sense. It's easy to identify the fact that Bellinger can be tagged with the QO and that Stroman can't, which makes for a handy talking point. Further, Stroman effectively has a $21-million player option for 2024, so dealing him would pass the risk that he gets hurt and ends up as dead money on next year's books to his new team. Those lines of thinking overlook the payoffs of each possible trade, though. That the Cubs can give Bellinger the QO sets a floor for their asking price, and the fact that he can't unilaterally opt for big money on this deal next season ensures that that asking price won't be dampened by any teams who get queasy in the face of a little risk. Stroman's circumstances give the Cubs much less leverage. We saw the Giants hold onto Carlos Rodon at last year's deadline, because a similarly pricey option deterred teams from paying what San Francisco wanted for him. Stroman isn't nearly the injury risk that Rodon was (and always is), but interested teams will certainly use Stroman's option against Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins. If the Cubs end up as sellers, Bellinger will bring back a much stronger return than will Stroman. Thus, if they're sellers, they should absolutely trade Bellinger, even more certainly than they should trade Stroman. If they're buyers, though, they should absolutely retain Bellinger, because they can't stay in contention without him and because they can always get a draft pick for him after the season, whether their bid for the postseason pans out or not. That leaves the question of whether trading Stroman could still make sense for a buying version of the Cubs. That's a thorny question, for multiple reasons. Firstly, from a logistical perspective, a Cubs team positioned to contend and trying to reach the playoffs would need to have a replacement for Stroman in order to deal him. Presumably, an acquiring team would be unwilling to provide that player, because they'd be getting Stroman for that very reason. That leaves two possibilities: A separate deal to acquire a starter (probably one with more team control) from a team not looking to contend this year; or Calling up at least one of Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski to fill out the rotation. I wrote on Sunday that Wesneski should take Drew Smyly's place in the rotation, anyway, so promoting him might fall into the category of necessary but not sufficient. The team would be taking a huge leap of faith by inserting a rookie, no matter which one it be, into the rotation vacancy left by one of their co-aces, in the heat of what they would be hoping would develop into a pennant race. Wicks has only recently reached Triple A, and Brown has been tantalizing but brutally inconsistent there. Thus, the most realistic scenario in which the Cubs trade Stroman but not Bellinger is also one in which they go make a trade to land an established, controllable starter to take his place. That's viable, because the team has depth and an impending roster crunch in the farm system, and because trading Stroman would only add to their trove of prospects. However, it's a delicate balance to attempt to strike. The 2021 Mariners traded Kendall Graveman, their closer, to the rival Astros, and though they acquired a useful reliever in that very deal, the move torpedoed the esprit de corps and led to their failure to end their 20-year playoff drought. The 2022 Brewers learned nothing from that, and traded Josh Hader for useful pieces, including a viable replacement for Hader. It had an equally deleterious effect on morale. Maybe the Cubs are materially mentally tougher than those teams, but they're just as actually thin as those teams proved to be. Trade Stroman, and the planning fallacy comes into play in a huge way. They might acquire an ostensibly or plausibly solid replacement for him, but there's a good chance that the gambit would turn out badly, and that the team would have set itself back by trying to be too clever. The front office's position is unenviable. They have five more games, really, to make a decision about whether to buy or sell, and those five games are taking on an artificially inflated importance that could lead to bad decisions. They do have a few potential avenues that involve a middle ground between buying and selling, but those options are fraught. Stroman is more likely than Bellinger to be dealt, but in reality, it ought to be either both or neither who wear Cubs uniforms on the other side of August 1. View full article

Sure, that’s an interesting alternative. Related to my proposal that they pursue Kirilloff for Bellinger, earlier this month. I don’t know that Wallner helps a lot for the balance of this season, because he can’t presently play first base, but it’s a good option. Where I draw a distinction is that if you get a Wallner (who comes with plenty of risk, short term and long term), that’s pretty much all you get. I’m still envisioning them getting a solid prospect in addition to Garver, in the version I described.

Well, probably not the first thing, though. No one who wants Bellinger is going to trade a productive full-time player for him. You trade for Garver (and this is obviously just one example) because that’s about as good/important a player as any contender is likely to give up for a guy who’s only around for a few months. Otherwise, they’re neutering their own move to improve. Then you take the rest of the value you’re in position to demand in the form of a prospect.

I can offer one gently used Nick Madrigal, and an exciting young arm named Horn.