David Ross is Not the Manager the Cubs Need to Turn the Corner

Hard to argue any of this. The Hosmer [expletive] has nuked my faith in him but his pitching management has never been any good either.

Could not disagree more. If anything 2023 has convinced me that Ross is a good manager, and while I don't watch every team regularly to get a good sense of other managers, I'd be shocked if there were 10 better than him.  I'll grant that you need to have a reliever warming in the 9th, though the 3 hits taking all of 6 pitches is a bit aberrant.  Heading into that inning Assad had given up one hit in those 5 innings, has been starting so he wasn't pushing his luck endurance wise, and most importantly was eating valuable innings from a pen that was gassed.  Fulmer and Boxberger were almost certainly down, and Alzolay probably should be given his newness to relief and injury history.  For a game that very easily could have gone to extra innings, trying for one more from cruising Assad against 7-8-9 is extremely logical.

More generally, Ross does a very good job of balancing SP workload, the game remained close partially because he took the uncommon step of yanking Taillon before the end of the 3rd, and he'll also ride strong starters(especially Stroman) to ensure he doesn't lean too hard on the pen.  He's fine moving relievers in and out of leverage situations as their form waxes and wanes. He's aggressive in pinch hitting even before the late innings when the moment presents itself(this also makes a chunk of the batting order complaints unfounded), and most of the gripes about position player selection round to 'there aren't any good LHH platoon/bench options and our RHH platoon/bench options have exploitable flaws'.  Ross is fine, better than fine I would wager.  

5 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Heading into that inning Assad had given up one hit in those 5 innings, has been starting so he wasn't pushing his luck endurance wise, and most importantly was eating valuable innings from a pen that was gassed.  Fulmer and Boxberger were almost certainly down, and Alzolay probably should be given his newness to relief and injury history.  

Assad has pitched 10.2 innings over 3 starts at Iowa. He is NOT stretched out. There is no justification for throwing him out there for a 6th inning the third time through the order. Go to Keegan, Leiter, or even Rucker. You have Steele going tomorrow followed by an off day. 

20 minutes ago, mfcubs22 said:

Assad has pitched 10.2 innings over 3 starts at Iowa. He is NOT stretched out. There is no justification for throwing him out there for a 6th inning the third time through the order. Go to Keegan, Leiter, or even Rucker. You have Steele going tomorrow followed by an off day. 

Assad's most recent outings regardless of level were 50 pitches, 72, 59, and 62.  He was on 4 days rest. He was fine to start that inning against the bottom of the order when he had no signs of trouble when he was less than 60 pitches(I think it was 59).  Those 3 are (in theory, who knows if one of them is sore or sick or w/e) the remainder of the pen that you have for a potential extra inning game that is not a very hypothetical construct when you're tied in the 9th.  Could he have gone to Keegan and tried to get 2 out of him if needed?  Yeah I think so, and I wouldn't have been upset with it.  Is letting Assad try to get you one more when he's been on autopilot against 3 bad hitters a disqualifying failure?  Absolutely not.  Managers make like thirty 52/48 decisions in a game and then we fans try to pretend they're 90/10 with the benefit of hindsight(and sometimes, incomplete information).

9 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Assad's most recent outings regardless of level were 50 pitches, 72, 59, and 62.  He was on 4 days rest. He was fine to start that inning against the bottom of the order when he had no signs of trouble when he was less than 60 pitches(I think it was 59).  Those 3 are (in theory, who knows if one of them is sore or sick or w/e) the remainder of the pen that you have for a potential extra inning game that is not a very hypothetical construct when you're tied in the 9th.  Could he have gone to Keegan and tried to get 2 out of him if needed?  Yeah I think so, and I wouldn't have been upset with it.  Is letting Assad try to get you one more when he's been on autopilot against 3 bad hitters a disqualifying failure?  Absolutely not.  Managers make like thirty 52/48 decisions in a game and then we fans try to pretend they're 90/10 with the benefit of hindsight(and sometimes, incomplete information).

A good manager doesn't do that in a close game. This isn't 1982. Ross has a bad habit of letting his pitchers throw until failure. 

I like Ross.  He clearly takes the long view on the season, and I think that's going to ultimately pay off.  Fans are going to hate him because quite frankly a majority of them are so short-sighted I wonder if they lack object permanence.

For last night, the bullpen was likely still shredded after Sunday, and as TT pointed out Assad was cruising.  He knew just as well as us that he was probably pushing things with Javier.  If he'd taken Assad out, his options were Keegan Thompson, Michael Rucker, and a bunch of guys heavily fatigued from this weekend.  If/when one of them blew it, my guess is you'd have written essentially this same article.

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I like Ross.  He clearly takes the long view on the season, and I think that's going to ultimately pay off.  Fans are going to hate him because quite frankly a majority of them are so short-sighted I wonder if they lack object permanence.

For last night, the bullpen was likely still shredded after Sunday, and as TT pointed out Assad was cruising.  He knew just as well as us that he was probably pushing things with Javier.  If he'd taken Assad out, his options were Keegan Thompson, Michael Rucker, and a bunch of guys heavily fatigued from this weekend.  If/when one of them blew it, my guess is you'd have written essentially this same article.

People like to assert that close losses are due to bad luck. Maybe there is some portion of the outcome that is due to luck. However, when a phenomenon occurs repeatedly in a system, luck is not the variable of importance because it cannot be controlled. Other controllable variables are important. Ross is the decision maker and more times than not his decisions have negatively affected the outcome. Luck is an empty box one can place blame but it mutes discussion of variables that are amenable to control. 

The long view is that they are losing winnable games that count.

24 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I like Ross.  He clearly takes the long view on the season, and I think that's going to ultimately pay off.  Fans are going to hate him because quite frankly a majority of them are so short-sighted I wonder if they lack object permanence.

For last night, the bullpen was likely still shredded after Sunday, and as TT pointed out Assad was cruising.  He knew just as well as us that he was probably pushing things with Javier.  If he'd taken Assad out, his options were Keegan Thompson, Michael Rucker, and a bunch of guys heavily fatigued from this weekend.  If/when one of them blew it, my guess is you'd have written essentially this same article.

So we should accept losing a bunch of winnable games because Ross likes to take the "long view" on the season? 

Sounds like nonsense to me. 

7 minutes ago, Cubs2023 said:

So we should accept losing a bunch of winnable games because Ross likes to take the "long view" on the season? 

Sounds like nonsense to me. 

And this isn't binary. One can take a long view of a season by letting a reliever throw a mere five innings. At some point, pushing a reliever into yet another inning - particularly in a tie game at home - becomes pretty foolish.

If Ross pulls Assad after three innings, maybe that's a mistake and too early considering the state of the bullpen. But putting a reliever out there for a sixth inning, that's just asking for trouble.

The idea that Assad was cruising is just wrong.  He was struggling with his fastball command in the 8th, missing way inside to righthanders on more than a few.  Yes, he got out of it thanks to a great play from Morel and a good pitch to follow, but he was showing signs of struggling and it was his 3rd time through the order, regardless of pitches thrown.  

Ross is probably fine in the grand scheme of things, but needs a better roster so that he doesn't feel the need to ride his bullpen for extra outs all the time.  And for the love of all that is holy, get rid of the dead weight like Hosmer so he can't use them

38 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

People like to assert that close losses are due to bad luck. Maybe there is some portion of the outcome that is due to luck. However, when a phenomenon occurs repeatedly in a system, luck is not the variable of importance because it cannot be controlled. Other controllable variables are important. Ross is the decision maker and more times than not his decisions have negatively affected the outcome. Luck is an empty box one can place blame but it mutes discussion of variables that are amenable to control. 

The long view is that they are losing winnable games that count.

Across '21 and 22, the Rays were 47-52 in one run games while the Dodgers were 40-39.  Please, tell me more about how record in close games is something smart teams are somehow able to control.

As long as he's not Dustying the pitching staff, managers don't matter that much.  They're convenient scapegoats for frustrations over a team experiencing negative variance.

The team’s much more in need of power on both sides of the ball than a shiny, new manager and coaching staff 

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Across '21 and 22, the Rays were 47-52 in one run games while the Dodgers were 40-39.  Please, tell me more about how record in close games is something smart teams are somehow able to control.

When Ross gets to about .500 over the course of 100 games in one-run games, we can revisit. 

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

As long as he's not Dustying the pitching staff, managers don't matter that much.  They're convenient scapegoats for frustrations over a team experiencing negative variance.

I realize that's the current hipster philosophy but the backbone of that stance is that managers aren't repeatedly making bonehead decisions.  On the balance most aren't - that doesn't mean there aren't some outliers that are.  How many 6 inning relief appearances have there been in the last 60 years?

13 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

When Ross gets to about .500 over the course of 100 games in one-run games, we can revisit. 

Ross was 60-63 in one-run games entering this season.

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Ross was 60-63 in one-run games entering this season.

ok. Point conceded. 

I had walked away from the game for a bit and was shocked to see Assad come out for the 9th.  He'd struggled with command a bit in the previous inning (missing badly on the arm side with fastballs) and got bailed out by the double play that Morel made a hell of a turn on.  I wasn't thrilled about the pitch count, but the 3rd time through the order for a guy who has no record of success to speak of in the majors is a tough sell for me.  I very much understand trying to give the pen a rest under the circumstances, but man, he's consistently leaving guys in a little too long.  With Stroman it's a bit more defensible, but there's not much of anyone else on this team I can get on board with that strategy for. 

I'll concede to TT's point on batting order, but I'm so tired of watching Hosmer Heyward and Juan Pierre almost every time he's up.  And why is he first pitch swinging to ground into a DP when the last 2 guys have walked and it's clear Flaherty is struggling mightily with his control? 

I know the FO values the soft skills Ross brings to the table and I'm not sure if it's his request or the FO that's been handcuffing the roster but maybe if Mervis and Morel were brought up while things were going well offensively they'd be through the adjustment period and contributing more at this point.  I guess I'm just frustrated at all the missed opportunities of late that I knew were coming when they were hitting so well with RISP during the hot start.

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

I'll concede to TT's point on batting order, but I'm so tired of watching Hosmer Heyward and Juan Pierre almost every time he's up.  And why is he first pitch swinging to ground into a DP when the last 2 guys have walked and it's clear Flaherty is struggling mightily with his control?

 

It's getting reallll tiresome watching Hosmer come up with guys on base while ahead of clearly better hitters - which, on this roster, just about everyone save Barnhart is. If he must play here and there, stop hitting him 6th and above, for the love of God.

1 hour ago, chopsx9 said:

I realize that's the current hipster philosophy but the backbone of that stance is that managers aren't repeatedly making bonehead decisions.  On the balance most aren't - that doesn't mean there aren't some outliers that are.  How many 6 inning relief appearances have there been in the last 60 years?

I don't know, how many?

What was their average performance in their sixth inning, compared to the average performance of the remaining cubs bullpen, and how does that translate into win percentage in a tied game in the top of the 9th?

Even if you can prove it was definitely the wrong decision, which I don't think you can, the difference is going to be a tiny fraction of a win on average 

59 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Ross was 60-63 in one-run games entering this season.

That's because Ross leaves them in so long that they become 2+ run losses.  /s

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

That's because Ross leaves them in so long that they become 2+ run losses.  /s

For real tho, that is part why 1-run w/l isn't a skill teams possess.  Good pitching keeps your 1-run losses from becoming multi-run losses and a good offense turns one-run wins into multi-run wins 

Anecdotally, I got 3 texts from my 69 year old dad last night shouting at what I guess are Ross shaped clouds.  The last text he asked me if we could get Terry Francona

On 5/9/2023 at 9:47 PM, Matt Trueblood said:

Until this season, one could make an argument that David Ross hadn't been given enough talent or a sufficiently clear mandate to evaluate him as the Cubs' manager. That argument was flimsy, but it could be made. It's no longer valid, and Ross's managerial heat should be red-hot.

I agree in that it was a flimsy argument, and the signs were there.   Now, I cannot say nor do I think any of us can with any certainty how much say Rossi has in personnel/lineup decisions and that is part of it...who is playing and when and and what spot in the lineup, etc.
 

But also some in game decisions have been head scratchers.  Keeping Assad in for the ninth most recently, all the bunting, curious pinch hitting decisions....those are all on Rossi.

I like the guy, but as I heard him tell an ump once....you've gotta be better.