Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Stratos]

19 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Cabrera will most likely be in the rotation next year. I also think IF the Cubs do offer Steele a contract they absolutely believe he will pitch next year. However, I am not sure they offer him a contract. As for Horton, best case, is after ASB. Your assessment is all worst case scenerio. Might be right. But definitely worst case scenerio. 

If I were Horton I would probably want to move to the bullpen permanently in order to throw fewer innings and try to get more years out of my arm for salary purposes before my arm fully explodes.

The Cubs probably would want to keep him starting thoough.

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, mk49 said:

Are the Angels going to trade Detmers?  IMO, they are in the best situation right now.  They got the new owner who is willing to spend.  They have only two guaranteed contracts (Trout and Kikuchi), and have almost $130M space before hitting the tax threshold.  They can keep Detmers.  They can sign all of these guys this winter, like Sukubal, Seiya, Morejon and King (or Peralta or whoever) without hitting the threshold.  I'm not saying they'll do all that, but they could.  Just because Detmers' value is high at the moment, would they trade him?  I don't know, but I doubt it.  Do I want Detmers?  Sure, he could be one of the best we could get (or not😁 )

Yep, I don’t expect Detmers. I think Bertz suggested finding the next Detmers in a trade. I agree with that. Maybe a lesser pitcher currently, but one who cost a lot less and someone you think you can mold into a solid starter. 

[mk49]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Yep, I don’t expect Detmers. I think Bertz suggested finding the next Detmers in a trade. I agree with that. Maybe a lesser pitcher currently, but one who cost a lot less and someone you think you can mold into a solid starter. 

Yeah, I agree.  Also, I think one of the SP's from Mariners would be a lot more realistic than Detmers.

Edited Saturday at 08:38 PM by mk49

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, mk49 said:

Yeah, I agree.  Also, I think one of the SP's from Mariners would be a lot more realistic than Detmers.

Agreed. Guardians have some pitchers too. So do the Rays. 

[Nolo]

3 hours ago, Stratos said:

If I were Horton I would probably want to move to the bullpen permanently in order to throw fewer innings and try to get more years out of my arm for salary purposes before my arm fully explodes.

I think Horton as a bullpen piece once he returns is the best move, assuming we have an actual starting staff in place by then. 

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Nolo said:

I think Horton as a bullpen piece once he returns is the best move, assuming we have an actual starting staff in place by then. 

I think bullpen for Horton is last resort. IMO, he will definitely plan on starting. 

[JBears79]

I'm not ready to give up on Horton starting yet. I'm hoping it can be similar to a Drew Rassmussen situation. Hopefully this will be the last major issue for him for a while idk. I'm not counting on him throwing any meaningful innings next season.

[Gjfificifjdej]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Cabrera will most likely be in the rotation next year. I also think IF the Cubs do offer Steele a contract they absolutely believe he will pitch next year. However, I am not sure they offer him a contract. As for Horton, best case, is after ASB. Your assessment is all worst case scenerio. Might be right. But definitely worst case scenerio. 

I also agree that Cabrera will be in the rotation, wasn’t trying to say otherwise, just that thats a demoralizing thought as a fan of good pitching. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

I also agree that Cabrera will be in the rotation, wasn’t trying to say otherwise, just that thats a demoralizing thought as a fan of good pitching. 

He's definitely a bit of a thrower than a pitcher at this point, but I'm sure he'll at least start the year in the rotation.  He'll have all winter plus possible lockout delayed season start to maybe find a new pitch like Brown did.

[Post Count Padder]

Someone brought it up earlier, I would absolutely be down with getting Emmet Sheehan if the Ddogers are open to moving him. Not sure how well we match up as a trade partner, though.

[Bertz]

There is a pretty interesting push/pull because the team does have 5 legitimate SPs (plus Wiggins plus a convalescing Horton) but all of them aside from Assad obviously have at least one pretty big red flag.  And Assad's lighter on question marks than the rest but also much lighter on talent

So you definitely need volume, but also we don't need to operate like there's nothing currently on hand to be used.  Two good starters and a 3rd guy who's more swing-y feels like the need, while three 3 legit SPs is an appropriate level of surplus.  4 feels like overkill, you're better off just funneling more resources into those first 3 IMO.

I'm generally against a big SP trade.  There is likely sufficient money to throw at the problem, so use your wallet and let the farm lick its wounds for a transaction cycle.  You can always add another starter through trade next July when you know more about what you're holding.

I'm generally hoping to come down with one of Rogers/Taira, one of the high end old guys (Gausman, Gray, Holmes), and then someone who's pretty good even if a bit boring (David Peterson, Tyler Mahle, Foster Griffin, etc.)

Michael King and Freddy Peralta feel like they're going to get overpaid based on name value and a splashy October.  I'd stay away from both, far away from Peralta.

[mk49]

37 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm generally hoping to come down with one of Rogers/Taira, one of the high end old guys (Gausman, Gray, Holmes), and then someone who's pretty good even if a bit boring (David Peterson, Tyler Mahle, Foster Griffin, etc.)

Michael King and Freddy Peralta feel like they're going to get overpaid based on name value and a splashy October.  I'd stay away from both, far away from Peralta.

Although I disagree with staying far away from Peralta, I agree with most of what you said.  Personally, I don't want Gausman (and Boyd, I know you didn't mention him), but Taira, then Gray or Holmes and Peterson sound good.

[Rcal10]

44 minutes ago, mk49 said:

Although I disagree with staying far away from Peralta, I agree with most of what you said.  Personally, I don't want Gausman (and Boyd, I know you didn't mention him), but Taira, then Gray or Holmes and Peterson sound good.

I agree with you on Peralta. For me, it is one of Peralta, King, Taira or Skubal. Then one of Gausman, Flaherty, Holmes or Gray and then one of Peterson, Mahle or Griffin. There are others who would work too. But as a guide, that is what I hope they do. And if they actually get Skubal, maybe they would have to trade for a cheap starter instead of adding a 3rd via free agency. If they did that I would want an under the radar starter who hasn’t quite pitched to his expectations as of yet. Basically, potentially the next Detmers. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree with you on Peralta. For me, it is one of Peralta, King, Taira or Skubal. Then one of Gausman, Flaherty, Holmes or Gray and then one of Peterson, Mahle or Griffin. There are others who would work too. But as a guide, that is what I hope they do. And if they actually get Skubal, maybe they would have to trade for a cheap starter instead of adding a 3rd via free agency. If they did that I would want an under the radar starter who hasn’t quite pitched to his expectations as of yet. Basically, potentially the next Detmers. 

Those are some good options. 

[Nolo]

I’ve been saying Holmes and Peterson need to be signed. The style of pitching just makes sense with the Cubs defense and they are already in house. From there, we need to acquire one of: Skubal, King, Peralta, Rogers, Gray or Detmers, or figure out who’s at the top. 

Rotation: TBD, Holmes, Steele, Peterson, Cabrera

I think Ben Brown needs to move to the pen as a multi-inning weapon to try and keep him healthy and valuable, and need to pick up an elite lefty bullpen arm (ie Morejón). Because right now all we have is Rolison if we are being honest. The bullpen is not super far off as is with hopefully returning Shelby Miller and Maton, full year from Zef, and a healthy year from Palencia. 

On the offense side,  need to sign Suzuki back and a couple of lower cost spark plug guys. 

Owen Ayers needs to be given the shot behind the dish. He’s 25 he’s not some super young prospect anymore. Padres had a 20 year old catcher in the NLDS for god sake. 

Edited yesterday at 05:06 PM by Nolo

[Bertz]

Player A

3.80 xERA, 3.74 xFIP, 24.6% K, 5.2% BB, 36.9% GB, 9.8% barrels, 36.9% hard hit

Player B

4.40 xERA, 4.30 xFIP, 21.0 % K, 9.2% BB, 44.6% GB, 8.2% barrels, 32.6% hard hit

Player C

4.64 xERA, 4.32 xFIP, 18.5% K, 7.5% BB, 42.2% GB, 7.7% barrels, 37.6% hard hit

Player D

3.86 xERA, 4.25 xFIP, 22.1% K, 9.4% BB, 40.9% GB, 5.2% barrels, 38.2% hard hit

Player E

3.74 xERA, 4.62 xFIP, 19.7% K, 6.7% BB, 36.1% GB, 7.0% barrel, 35.0% hard hit

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Player A

3.80 xERA, 3.74 xFIP, 24.6% K, 5.2% BB, 36.9% GB, 9.8% barrels, 36.9% hard hit

Player B

4.40 xERA, 4.30 xFIP, 21.0 % K, 9.2% BB, 44.6% GB, 8.2% barrels, 32.6% hard hit

Player C

4.64 xERA, 4.32 xFIP, 18.5% K, 7.5% BB, 42.2% GB, 7.7% barrels, 37.6% hard hit

Player D

3.86 xERA, 4.25 xFIP, 22.1% K, 9.4% BB, 40.9% GB, 5.2% barrels, 38.2% hard hit

Player E

3.74 xERA, 4.62 xFIP, 19.7% K, 6.7% BB, 36.1% GB, 7.0% barrel, 35.0% hard hit

 

A and D

I'm pretty sure I know who A is given the insane barrel rate though 

Edited yesterday at 07:02 PM by Tangled Up in Plaid

[Nolo]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Player A

3.80 xERA, 3.74 xFIP, 24.6% K, 5.2% BB, 36.9% GB, 9.8% barrels, 36.9% hard hit

Player B

4.40 xERA, 4.30 xFIP, 21.0 % K, 9.2% BB, 44.6% GB, 8.2% barrels, 32.6% hard hit

Player C

4.64 xERA, 4.32 xFIP, 18.5% K, 7.5% BB, 42.2% GB, 7.7% barrels, 37.6% hard hit

Player D

3.86 xERA, 4.25 xFIP, 22.1% K, 9.4% BB, 40.9% GB, 5.2% barrels, 38.2% hard hit

Player E

3.74 xERA, 4.62 xFIP, 19.7% K, 6.7% BB, 36.1% GB, 7.0% barrel, 35.0% hard hit

 

From pure numbers, my rank from best to worst:

1. A

2. D

3. E

4. B

5. C

Who are they? Assume A = Shota?

Edited yesterday at 07:33 PM by Nolo

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

9 minutes ago, Nolo said:

From pure numbers, my rank from best to worst:

1. A

2. D

3. E

4. B

5. C

Who are they? Assume A = Shota?

Yeah, A has gotta be Shota 

[Bertz]

A is Shota

B is Michael King

C is Matt Boyd

D is Freddy Peralta on the Mets

E is Freddy Peralta on the Rays

[Nolo]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

A is Shota

B is Michael King

C is Matt Boyd

D is Freddy Peralta on the Mets

E is Freddy Peralta on the Rays

Interesting. I still think Shota and Boyd need to go, and I think Michael King is going to stay in San Diego. The preference out of this group is Peralta for the Cubs rotation.

Peralta, Steele, Holmes, Peterson, Cabrera isn’t bad 

[mk49]

Only guy I could tell right away was player A.  

[Stratos]

Player C- No SB allowed,  3 attempts (all caught stealing), 6 pickoffs .

Actually, given that LHP generally hold runners better than RHP, that means stats like xFIP, FIP, xERA, fWAR undervalue the vast majority of LHP.

Edited 17 hours ago by Stratos

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

Player C- No SB allowed,  3 attempts (all caught stealing), 6 pickoffs .

Actually, given that LHP generally hold runners better than RHP, that means stats like xFIP, FIP, xERA, fWAR undervalue the vast majority of LHP.

No they don't. FIP and xFIP literally count things a pitcher can control on their own; the result of the hitter. It's "fielding independent pitching". They track strikeouts, walks and home runs. They do not track what happens after a hitter reaches base. fWAR which uses xFIP and FIP as it's basis also doesn't track that. Holding a runner on is immaterial to three of those data points so no advantage could be found. xERA is the only one that might (since earned runs happen after someone reaches base safety) but that also assumes that everything else between RHP vs LHP is equal. 

If you're interested in the "LHP vs RHP" debate, than it's probably good to realize that it's far too nuanced for anyone to conclude that single point as the only difference. FanGraphs wrote an article in 2020 on the concept. Linked here. Boiling it down to such a limited scope (such as holding a runner on first) is too narrow. There may be a left handed pitcher advantage, and left handed pitchers do seem to get some sort of benefit from holding runners on (as the article concludes) but the larger picture is far more important. Familiarity (or lack there of), for example seems to play a larger role in this than holding a runner on. It seems that worse lefties, with worth pitch values do get a bump in terms of run prevention than better righties which results in more left handed pitchers getting opportunity, but not that lefties are better than righties on the surface.

Quote

This “southpaw advantage” is substantial enough to generate a large surplus of lefty pitchers on rosters and shape the game in profound ways. Indeed, our analysis suggests that a substantial majority of major league left-handed pitchers could not survive in the majors if they threw right-handed but had otherwise identical talent.

 

[squally1313]

On a very hypothetical basis, given that the next time the Cubs successfully rehabilitate a pitcher coming off a serious injury in a timely manner will be the first time I can remember.....what kind of value does Horton have?

Like, I'm aware this would be 'selling low'. but this is also an offense built to win in 2027, and there are at least a few teams out there that aren't.