Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Ranger Suarez money?  He's not as accomplished but the stuff is better and he's the only FA SP who checks all three of these modest boxes:

- Was good and healthy in 2026

- Does not have an injury history a mile long

- Is under 30

So 5/$140M? $28M a year? At that price I would assume the Cubs could only add one more pitcher, and that pitcher would be more like Peterson than Peralta. I mean, how much money are people expecting the Cubs to put into the rotation. I can’t imagine it goes to $50M and think it will be close to $40M. 

[Jason Ross]

Trevor Rogers feels like a decent option. If there's a hesitation I'd have it's that he's another guy who has fine stuff, and fine whiff% but isn't generating a lot of strikeouts and isn't overpowering. The Orioles aren't the best team on the planet when it comes to pitching, so maybe you think "yeah there's juice to squeeze there" but it isn't like the Cubs have proven that's a specific talent they have had year-over-year.

The positives are seemingly that the velocity ticked up and stayed up (was down in April and was his highest at the end of the year), he's younger and the injury history is solid. He limited home runs really well but gave up a good amount of flyballs last year, so that's a little iffy.

Flip side he's been really good for 260 IP, so maybe that just straight up doesn't matter.

Not shitting on him by any means, but I'm not entirely sure he's my favorite-favorite guy out there. But I very well could be underselling him on a first glance.

[Gjfificifjdej]

May be more prudent to fix the pitching from a coaching standpoint before investing major money (please Ricketts). Yes there was a lack of high end talent this year but it wasn’t just injury replacements that were bad. Guys that came into the team at the deadline were generally pretty terrible. Guys who were in the plan from February had some really bad stretches, starter or reliever. At some point it might be something the Cubs are doing if essentially every arm they touch becomes terrible. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

1 hour ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

May be more prudent to fix the pitching from a coaching standpoint before investing major money (please Ricketts). Yes there was a lack of high end talent this year but it wasn’t just injury replacements that were bad. Guys that came into the team at the deadline were generally pretty terrible. Guys who were in the plan from February had some really bad stretches, starter or reliever. At some point it might be something the Cubs are doing if essentially every arm they touch becomes terrible. 

I definitely expect Hottovy to be fired.

[mk49]

1 hour ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

May be more prudent to fix the pitching from a coaching standpoint before investing major money (please Ricketts). Yes there was a lack of high end talent this year but it wasn’t just injury replacements that were bad. Guys that came into the team at the deadline were generally pretty terrible. Guys who were in the plan from February had some really bad stretches, starter or reliever. At some point it might be something the Cubs are doing if essentially every arm they touch becomes terrible. 

They won't have much time, so do both fixing coaching staff and singing pitchers.  I'm sure they're working on them now.

Edited October 6 by mk49

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

May be more prudent to fix the pitching from a coaching standpoint before investing major money (please Ricketts). Yes there was a lack of high end talent this year but it wasn’t just injury replacements that were bad. Guys that came into the team at the deadline were generally pretty terrible. Guys who were in the plan from February had some really bad stretches, starter or reliever. At some point it might be something the Cubs are doing if essentially every arm they touch becomes terrible. 

I think some of this is on coaching, sure. Whether it's a disconnect between Hottovy and Zombro, or what, I'm unsure. I do think some changes will be made on that front (not Zombro, too new). I think we can be skeptical of whether or not Zombro is the truth, but it's also too quick to pull that plug. He's only just had his first influential draft...needs time to sort that one out. 

As well, some of the bad last year probably wasn't coaching. Cabrera was a bummer all year, but Holmes came over post-IL stint and how much of that was "Cubs changes not working" and "Clay Holmes just wasn't right" is questionable, as an example. Ryan Zeferjahn struggled when he came over but stabilized much more by the end: why? We could blame coaching, could blame the changes, but he was always a live arm who had control issues, too. 

But it isn't like it's been all bad, either. Ben Brown made big jumps this year. Cade Horton made big jumps last year. Jaxon Wiggins made big jumps last year. They squeezed another year out of Taillon. There are some good things...it's just not been nearly enough (spending, development or picking the right guys). 

So I don't disagree; they should probably fix something on the coaching end. But they also need to put real improvement into the players. The Cubs have no rotation to speak of right now; and no real way to fill it internally. So it'll have to be a combination.

[Bertz]

I don't expect that this team is short sighted enough to dump Hottovy over some HR rate silliness 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

I definitely expect Hottovy to be fired.

Does he deserve it though?

I wouldn't really care if he got canned or not,

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, mk49 said:

They won't have much time, so do both fixing coaching staff and singing pitchers.  I'm sure they're working on them now.

Won't they have the lockout to find any new coaches, if it takes that long?

[mk49]

52 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I don't expect that this team is short sighted enough to dump Hottovy over some HR rate silliness 

(Not arguing with Bertz here)  Dumping Hottovy or not, more than a few things need to be changed.  It's not just the HR issue.  I'm hoping they can figure things out with or without Hottovy.  That'll take time, though.  Personally, I like Hottovy.  Hottovy has nothing to do with not having good enough pitchers in Iowa.  The pitching problem is bigger than just the pitching coach.  Scouting, drafting, free agent signing, developing, unable to keep them healthy (or picking too many injury prone), not spending big money for real TOR guy or good RP.......  

Edited October 6 by mk49

[mk49]

4 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Won't they have the lockout to find any new coaches, if it takes that long?

They do for coaches (or whatever the changes that need to be done), but he was saying finding them, before signing pitchers.  They can't wait that long.  I would think many good pitchers would be gone by Dec 2nd.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

22 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Does he deserve it though?

I wouldn't really care if he got canned or not,

Probably not, but I think it's gonna happen regardless. He's an easy scapegoat.

[Gjfificifjdej]

Two wild stats I found looking on Fangraphs to emphasize how insane the Cubs position players were… In the ten full seasons before this year, the 28th ranked team by pitching Fwar (which the Cubs had) averaged 95.1 losses. The worst of those teams, the 47-115 2018 Orioles, had 7.1. The Cubs had 6.0 this year. Lol. 

[Geographyhater8888]

2 hours ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

Two wild stats I found looking on Fangraphs to emphasize how insane the Cubs position players were… In the ten full seasons before this year, the 28th ranked team by pitching Fwar (which the Cubs had) averaged 95.1 losses. The worst of those teams, the 47-115 2018 Orioles, had 7.1. The Cubs had 6.0 this year. Lol. 

They’re also fourth in positional fWAR over the last 50 years behind the 01 Mariners, 23 Braves and 2019 Astros who combined for a 109 win average. 89 wins track.

[Geographyhater8888]

It’s still a mystery whether or not Jed has gotten over his phobia of attrition and is willing to pay top $ for a high end pitcher.

Seems that their plan is to be the 2000’s Phillies or Whitesox, stay in the mix every year, shuffle around the roster a bit for a mid-high 80’s win total and hope you stumble into Jed’s version of the 05 and 08 WS winners.

Edited October 6 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

6 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Probably not, but I think it's gonna happen regardless. He's an easy scapegoat.

Hottovy’s latest success story, Ben Brown, learned how to throw his sinker form Clay Holmes, 

Edited October 6 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

4 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

It’s still a mystery whether or not Jed has gotten over his phobia of attrition and is willing to pay top $ for a high end pitcher.

Seems that their plan is to be the 2000’s Phillies or Whitesox, stay in the mix every year, shuffle around the roster a bit for a mid-high 80’s win total and hope you stumble into Jed’s version of the 05 and 08 WS winners.

Do you....do you not think 2026 helps prove the point about pitcher attrition?

[Jason Ross]

9 hours ago, Bertz said:

I don't expect that this team is short sighted enough to dump Hottovy over some HR rate silliness 

I would guess if the team moved on from Hottovy it would not be because of the home run rates or anything. I do trust the organization to not be short sighted like that. Nor do I think it's because the team thinks Hottovy is a bad pitching coach. I'd guess it'd be a combination of something like:

1. Matt had mentioned to me a bit ago in a comment on one of this articles, that while Hottovy and Zombro have some overlapping ideals in how they view pitching, it's an imperfect matchup. With how much authority he was seemingly given with the draft, him having a voice in terms of who implements the pitching at the MLB level feels very plausible. We can certainly debate whether that's a good or a bad thing (too many cooks in the kitchen vs having differing perspectives to attack the same problem from more than one angle, as an example) but if they differ enough, it could be a reason.

2. I do think there's a point when you've had the same voices in the same positions for long enough that change can be a good thing. Hottovy has been around the organization for a very long time; dating back to 2014. He's been the team's pitching coach since 2018. Theo Epstein believed in the ten-year rule, and whether it's ten years or whatever, I do think there are positives for adding new voices; specifically outside of the organization. With Hoyer not going anywhere, the team already bringing in Zombro two years ago...the chances to new voices in positions high enough to make those changes are pretty slim. The GM position that Carter Hawkins occupies could open up as well if a team is interested and I know there are definitely some very bright people who aren't very sold on his voice in the room, so that could be another place. 

I'm not even advocating for it. There was some real bad luck and bad variance this year to which I have a hard time blaming anyone. I can see where some things didn't work well beyond the bad luck this year and I think a lot of people share some blame for that too; Jed, Zomrbo and Hottovy in some fashion, though without being in the room, I can't even begin to decide who's feet that blame lays upon. Between those three, the easiest change is Hottovy so I can see the organization making that change.

Will it happen? No clue. Matt certainly seems to think it will, but if that's opinion or source, your guess is once again as good as mine. I have no issue with him returning. I can fully understand the arguments for why you might make a change, too. But I do agree that the answer can't be "because of the home runs" (thankfully, as I said, I think the organization will have better reasoning than that, too).

[Geographyhater8888]

20 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Do you....do you not think 2026 helps prove the point about pitcher attrition?

I don’t think 2026 proves a point about pitcher attrition anymore than 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022 etc. The topic is signing Skubal, that fear is another reason why it’s unlikely.

Edited October 6 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

39 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I would guess if the team moved on from Hottovy it would not be because of the home run rates or anything. I do trust the organization to not be short sighted like that. Nor do I think it's because the team thinks Hottovy is a bad pitching coach. I'd guess it'd be a combination of something like:

1. Matt had mentioned to me a bit ago in a comment on one of this articles, that while Hottovy and Zombro have some overlapping ideals in how they view pitching, it's an imperfect matchup. With how much authority he was seemingly given with the draft, him having a voice in terms of who implements the pitching at the MLB level feels very plausible. We can certainly debate whether that's a good or a bad thing (too many cooks in the kitchen vs having differing perspectives to attack the same problem from more than one angle, as an example) but if they differ enough, it could be a reason.

2. I do think there's a point when you've had the same voices in the same positions for long enough that change can be a good thing. Hottovy has been around the organization for a very long time; dating back to 2014. He's been the team's pitching coach since 2018. Theo Epstein believed in the ten-year rule, and whether it's ten years or whatever, I do think there are positives for adding new voices; specifically outside of the organization. With Hoyer not going anywhere, the team already bringing in Zombro two years ago...the chances to new voices in positions high enough to make those changes are pretty slim. The GM position that Carter Hawkins occupies could open up as well if a team is interested and I know there are definitely some very bright people who aren't very sold on his voice in the room, so that could be another place. 

I'm not even advocating for it. There was some real bad luck and bad variance this year to which I have a hard time blaming anyone. I can see where some things didn't work well beyond the bad luck this year and I think a lot of people share some blame for that too; Jed, Zomrbo and Hottovy in some fashion, though without being in the room, I can't even begin to decide who's feet that blame lays upon. Between those three, the easiest change is Hottovy so I can see the organization making that change.

Will it happen? No clue. Matt certainly seems to think it will, but if that's opinion or source, your guess is once again as good as mine. I have no issue with him returning. I can fully understand the arguments for why you might make a change, too. But I do agree that the answer can't be "because of the home runs" (thankfully, as I said, I think the organization will have better reasoning than that, too).

The Zombro thing is fair, the timing would be right to bring in one of his guys if that's been the plan.  Though honestly while I'm optimistic for Zombro I think Hottovy's got more wins on the board we can point to (to the degree we outside can ever parse these things out to individuals), so if we're forced to choose sides I'm probably team Tommy for now.

I also don't suspect this is an area Matt has scuttlebut on.  His sourcing seems to be fairly mid level and definitely not in uniform with the Cubs, and higher with the Twins and Brewers.  So palace drama here in Chicago doesn't feel in his wheelhouse.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The Zombro thing is fair, the timing would be right to bring in one of his guys if that's been the plan.  Though honestly while I'm optimistic for Zombro I think Hottovy's got more wins on the board we can point to (to the degree we outside can ever parse these things out to individuals), so if we're forced to choose sides I'm probably team Tommy for now.

I also don't suspect this is an area Matt has scuttlebut on.  His sourcing seems to be fairly mid level and definitely not in uniform with the Cubs, and higher with the Twins and Brewers.  So palace drama here in Chicago doesn't feel in his wheelhouse.

I think that's fair. I'm probably on Team Zombro, but not because of anything other than I think the Cubs probably owe it to themselves to see that through. They promoted him last year to keep other organizations away, they gave him a lot of power in the draft. I think they've invested enough that it's probably worth it to see if it works and if that requires a move to "bring in his guy" at the MLB level, I can get behind it.

Will it work? I think that the jury is a long way's out there. No idea!

[Nolo]

what about trading Dansby for prospects to free up some cash to sign elite arms for bullpen and rotation?

Yeah he’s a good SS, but he’s worthless with the bat. Saw a crazy stat that 50% or so of his offensive production came in just 8 games this year. Move Nico over to SS and Ramirez to second. That’s a lot of cash freed up right there for OF, bullpen, and rotation, plus what is already coming off the books. 

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, Nolo said:

what about trading Dansby for prospects to free up some cash to sign elite arms for bullpen and rotation?

Yeah he’s a good SS, but he’s worthless with the bat. Saw a crazy stat that 50% or so of his offensive production came in just 8 games this year. Move Nico over to SS and Ramirez to second. That’s a lot of cash freed up right there for OF, bullpen, and rotation, plus what is already coming off the books. 

50% of his offensive production did not come in eight games this year. Can you provide that statistic? My guess is that it's something that brings his offensive year down to one, very specific pedantic number and it came across eight games. 

[gflore34]

Does any think Boyd wasn't 100%?  Not advocating for his return nevertheless, it's probably a legitimate question.

[mul21]

7 minutes ago, Nolo said:

what about trading Dansby for prospects to free up some cash to sign elite arms for bullpen and rotation?

Yeah he’s a good SS, but he’s worthless with the bat. Saw a crazy stat that 50% or so of his offensive production came in just 8 games this year. Move Nico over to SS and Ramirez to second. That’s a lot of cash freed up right there for OF, bullpen, and rotation, plus what is already coming off the books. 

Two things here.  First, you're significantly downgrading 2 defensive positions by doing that and second, I'm not convinced Pedro's bat will come close to making up that difference.  He really struggled at the end of the year.