Edward Cabrera's Rocky Debut Season Leaves Cubs With More Questions Than Answers

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The 2025 Chicago Cubs’ starting rotation finished 28th in baseball in average four-seam fastball velocity, so for the 2026 season, they needed an additional power arm to pair with Cade Horton. On January 7, they acquired that arm in Edward Cabrera, at the expense of their top organizational prospect Owen Caissie, as well as some additional pieces. Cabrera had spent the entirety of his five-year career with the Miami Marlins, and was consistently regarded as one of the game’s higher-end pitching prospects. Injuries and control issues prevented him from achieving that breakout season many thought was around the corner, but in 2025 he made 26 starts with a 3.53 ERA, striking out 150 in 137⅔ innings. A healthy Cabrera was supposed to be another anchor in their rotation, and the Cubs’ pitching lab was supposed to help him evolve into a frontline starter.

At least the story got off to a nice beginning. Cabrera was excellent in his first start as a Cub, pitching six innings, allowing only one hit, one walk, and striking out five in a 7-2 win against the Angels. He continued his nearly unhittable ways through his next start in Cleveland, allowing one hit over 5⅔ innings, but in this start he walked five, which had been par for the course so far in his career.

Unfortunately, those two starts ended up being the two best starts of his 2026 season. Over his next six outings, opposing teams averaged 7.3 hits per game, allowing exactly three earned runs per start, except one where he allowed five. He was at least reining in the walks during this period, never allowing more than three in a start, and he did strikeout eight Reds on May 4, which was his season high. Still, he was pitching more like a mid-rotation starter, not a frontline guy that the Cubs were hoping for when they moved their top prospect.

On his tenth start of the season, he only lasted three innings, allowing three runs to the Brewers. Four days later, he was placed on the 15-day injured list with a blister. This would mark the first of his three trips to the injured list, which again, is nothing new for him. When he returned in early June, the Giants promptly torched him for eight runs, knocking three homers in 3⅔ innings. After this blowup, his ERA on the season rose to 4.99. He made three more starts, tallying two, five, and two earned runs before injury-list stint number two with a hamstring strain. He returned for a mid-August start against the Cardinals, who were over .500, but had dwindling playoff hopes. Cabrera kept those hopes alive a little bit longer, as the Redbirds lit him up for seven earned runs, knocking him out of the game before the fourth inning.

That lone clunker of a start marked his only appearance from July through August, as he was, for the third time, placed on the injured list with another blister. That also ended up being the last start he made of the season, as he was sent to the bullpen when he returned in mid-September. With David Peterson holding his own, plus the acquisitions of Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman at the trade deadline, the Cubs were not in nearly a dire enough position to bring Cabrera and his 5.68 ERA back into the rotation. There was hope that he would be more effective in shorter stints, as well as lessening his risk for re-injury. Craig Counsell compared Cabrera to Roki Sasaki, hoping he could be an effective multi-inning reliever in the same way the Japanese phenom was for the 2025 Dodgers in the playoffs.

The sentiment was nice, but then Cabrera was tagged for five runs across three relief appearances. The Cubs ended up not needing him in the playoffs anyway, because the regular season’s best offense could only push across one run in their quick two-game dismissal by the Padres. In fact, the guy who ended up being their “big” pitching addition in the offseason did not make the postseason roster.

Cabrera ended the season with a 5.96 ERA over 18 games (15 starts), striking out 71, while accumulating -0.1 fWAR. Outside of his rookie season in 2021 where he only pitched 26⅓ innings, this was the only time Cabrera had posted a negative fWAR. His 7.99 K/9 represents the lowest mark of his career, while his ERA represents the highest. A look into his Savant page shows us just how much he has regressed since his breakout 2025 season. Below is his year-to-year change chart, and most of the trends are going in the wrong direction.

Simply put, it seems opposing hitters have figured him out. He is allowing more quality contact, his fastball velocity is down, and he is issuing more walks. His pitches that were dominant in 2025 were average, at best. Below is his run value chart separated by each pitch type.

In 2025, his changeup, curveball, and slider were his best pitches. Each one has regressed significantly. The changeup was his most-used, and second-most effective, pitch last year, so he used it even more this season. It ended up going from a plus pitch to average. The curveball and slider usage went down in favor of the sinker, which was the only pitch that got any better this year. Could this be the Cubs’ pitch lab trying to fix something that wasn’t broken last season? Or could this all be attributed to his injury issues?

Cabrera pitched as a fine back-end starter before he got hurt the first time. The Cubs' offense was rolling, and did not really need him to be anything close to great. He kept the game close more often than not, and that’s enough to keep my season-long grade for him (a C-) from being any lower. If the Cubs did not start the season as hot as they did, who knows if they would have fallen out of the Wild Card race with their September cold spell.

The right-hander has two more seasons to get it right in Chicago, but he needs to be healthy for a whole season, something that has never happened in his career. The trade stings less because Owen Caissie produced -0.5 fWAR in his first year in Miami, but now the Cubs could really use an outfielder as well. Cabrera will have every opportunity to start next season, but it’s clear that he's got work to do to earn his keep in Chicago.