Cubs (TBD) vs Royals (Lynch): 08/07/26, 7:10 PM

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Cubs visit the Royals to open their series at Kauffman Stadium, with Lynch on the mound for Kansas City.

[Brock Beauchamp]

	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	TOT
Trent Thornton	0	22	0	0	12	34
Ryan Zeferjahn	0	0	9	14	0	23
Ryan Rolison	30	0	14	0	14	58
Jacob Webb	0	0	12	11	0	23
Caleb Thielbar	0	0	0	19	12	31
Aaron Civale	18	0	0	0	45	63

[The_Achiever]

Friday night Cubs.  Will go well with my typical Friday beers.  LFG!

[Bertz]

This is the rare road trip where I think you should be disappointed if you don't go at least 4-2.  Cavalli/Peterson next Thursday is the only game where we shouldn't be favored.

[squally1313]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This is the rare road trip where I think you should be disappointed if you don't go at least 4-2.  Cavalli/Peterson next Thursday is the only game where we shouldn't be favored.

(Brewers favored in 8 of their next 12, so basically we'll be 1.5 back in a couple weeks)

[Brian707]

Why is it TBD for Cubs? Gausman I thought was starting 

[UMFan83]

Random observation but Seiya Suzuki has very quietly reached 3.8 bWAR this season.  If the season ended today it would be his highest bWAR season as a Cub.

2022 - 1.8
2023 - 3.2
2024 - 3.5
2025 - 2.6 (weighed down a bit by mostly being DH)
2026 - 3.8

Obviously WAR can go up and down but his current pace is a 5.6 bWAR season.  Pretty nice contract year for him if he can keep it up and stay healthy.

Edited Friday at 04:23 PM by UMFan83

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

Random observation but Seiya Suzuki has very quietly reached 3.8 bWAR this season.  If the season ended today it would be his highest bWAR season as a Cub.

2022 - 1.8
2023 - 3.2
2024 - 3.5
2025 - 2.6 (weighed down a bit by mostly being DH)
2026 - 3.8

I'm looking at FG, but yeah, he's had a really good year. The expected metrics say the offense is a little luck driven, but he's also, somehow, generated the most defensive value of any right fielder. 

Ballesteros is no longer squatting in the 'DH of the future' job, so between that and Seiya actually being a fine (or better) defender, there's certainly a better argument for trying to bring him back. 

[chibears55]

34 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

 

 

 

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

(Brewers favored in 8 of their next 12, so basically we'll be 1.5 back in a couple weeks)

9 and 3 should be minimum here

Edited Friday at 04:34 PM by chibears55

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Lynch is a reliever and I have no idea who Randy Dobnak is

[gflore34]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

(Brewers favored in 8 of their next 12, so basically we'll be 1.5 back in a couple weeks)

Relative to last few games this is a fairly large step down in opponents' starting pitching.  Appears today is a bullpen game for the Royals, a bullpen which is among the worst in the AL.

[Jason Ross]

32 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

 

 

9 and 3 should be minimum here

I don't think you can ever consider 9 of 12 as a minimum. That's an incredible winning percentage. I'd certainly love it, but even the best record against sub .500 teams in baseball is a .667 winning percentage. 

It's Milwaukee. Because of course it's Milwaukee.

[Bertz]

49 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'm looking at FG, but yeah, he's had a really good year. The expected metrics say the offense is a little luck driven, but he's also, somehow, generated the most defensive value of any right fielder. 

Ballesteros is no longer squatting in the 'DH of the future' job, so between that and Seiya actually being a fine (or better) defender, there's certainly a better argument for trying to bring him back. 

Yeah I think I'm landing here too.  Worth noting too even at his worst Seiya has mashed lefties and our top remaining prospects are LHH outfielders.

So even if the back of his deal ends up a little ugly it's probably more "we're way overpaying our 4th outfielder" as opposed to "he's useless and in the way"

[PeanutPunch33]

I wish the Cubs didn't wait around to do it.  He's entering "best available Free Agent" territory and it makes me uneasy. 

He has clearly established himself as the 2nd best player in this lineup and losing him would hurt immensely.  He also came here as a 27 year old rookie, doesn't have the same wear-and-tear on his body that others do against major league pitching.  Very much a guy that can still be highly productive into his mid-30s.  

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I wish the Cubs didn't wait around to do it.  He's entering "best available Free Agent" territory and it makes me uneasy. 

He has clearly established himself as the 2nd best player in this lineup and losing him would hurt immensely.  He also came here as a 27 year old rookie, doesn't have the same wear-and-tear on his body that others do against major league pitching.  Very much a guy that can still be highly productive into his mid-30s.  

I think I know the answer to this question, but happy to be proven wrong. Are there many examples of players not under the early career team control signing extensions before their current contract is up?

[PeanutPunch33]

20 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I think I know the answer to this question, but happy to be proven wrong. Are there many examples of players not under the early career team control signing extensions before their current contract is up?

The best time to extend him was last off-season, the off-season before he becomes a FA, and if I recall that's what the Cubs did with Ian Happ.  The next best time is now.  He might not go for it but if the Cubs dangled a market-value contract at him (4 years 96 mill) I'm sure he'd seriously consider it.  

My fear is that another big market team like the Blue Jays or Yankees show interest in him this off-season and it becomes a bidding war.  I can also see the Phillies, Padres, White Sox interested.  

Edited Friday at 06:14 PM by PeanutPunch33

[squally1313]

A little related to the Seiya discussion, a lot related to being really bored on a Friday afternoon. Playing around with the FG roster pages, I have our luxury tax number at roughly $188m for next year. Obviously this is all hypothetical with the labor discussions, but that gives us $55m or so to play with assuming we want to reset the clock on the luxury tax. Ofeensively we have 6 sure starters (SS, 3B, 2B, 1B, CF, C), and then Shaw and Ramirez. We have 7 nominal starters, but that's inclusive of Horton and includes names we probably shouldn't rely on. The bullpen, as mentioned earlier, is in much better shape than it normally is. Webb/Palencia/Zefferjahn, then team control on Maton/Harvey/Miller and that's before Rolison, Roberts, etc. 

I think the simplest path is to trade one of Shaw/Ramirez for a controllable mid level starter (would probably be one closer to free agency, but the further away and therefore cheaper, the better) and make the other one your pseudo-starting corner outfielder. Spend on a corner outfielder, like Seiya. Find someone Conforto-esque. Then use whatever you have left on another starter. Would love to have an opening day rotation of Brown/Steele/Cabrera/traded for starter/signed starter, with Rea/Assad/Garrett floating around and Horton rehabbing. The offense will have taken a step back, both from departures and age related regression, but hopefully the SP and RP situations make the leap to average/above average to cancel it out. 

[Post Count Padder]

Unrelated but the Blue Jays officially recalled Bateman for his MLB debut.

[chibears55]

Hope we get to see Little in this series 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

17 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Hope we get to see Little in this series 

They optioned him to Omaha after signing him

[BKHoo]

Seiya wants to stay in Chicago.  I think we can get him for a bit below what he’d get once he becomes a FA. As has been noted - the FA class is weak this year which would help his leverage.  The guy loves Chicago.  Make it happen. 

[JBears79]

Seiya deserves to be apart of this core and an extension just makes sense. Gotta get a deal done

[Dfan25]

I want Seiya lock up . Lineup just doesn’t look all that great without him . His power from the right side is something they can’t afford to lose .

 

I really don’t trust Shaw or Alcantara , so keep Seiya and let Happ go . Go cheaper  in LF

[Dfan25]

Yeah 9 of 12 is really difficult to pull off , but realistically they have to make up ground over the next 10 -12 days while Milwaukee is in the west coast . 
 

With that said Milwaukee will probably go 10-2 or 9-3 , because you know it’s the Brewers . They don’t lose 

[JBears79]

Just now, Dfan25 said:

Yeah 9 of 12 is really difficult to pull off , but realistically they have to make up ground over the next 10 -12 days while Milwaukee is in the west coast . 
 

With that said Milwaukee will probably go 10-2 or 9-3 , because you know it’s the Brewers . They don’t lose 

We also have an uncanny ability to lose when they lose too lol