The Crazy PCA Stats and Tidbits Thread

[Javy Is Still a Cub 2]

13 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Better stats, how? Yes PCA has made a few errors. But he gets to balls Pages wouldn’t come close to. You are really showing an outdated view on the game. Even this Dawson argument is stupid. TBH, he didn’t deserve the MVP that year. There were several players in the league that had a better year than him AND they were on winning teams. Dawson has a very good year. He didn’t  blow everyone away in several categories. And he didn’t field his position nearly as well as PCA does. 

Pages still leads MLB in assists and double plays despite missing - what, a month? Also leads OFers in almighty WAR, still. 

Dawson had the most HR and RBI in the NL in 20 and 10 years respectively. And he only got 20 GWRBI, but hey - LOL - it's his fault the Cubs were a last place team. (Tell me you don't play baseball without telling me you don't play baseball....)

[ILMindState]

 

[Jason Ross]

31 minutes ago, Javy Is Still a Cub 2 said:

I appreciate the reply - although nobody appreciates having their worldview called "simple" in a pejorative sense - but you're asking me to disprove a claim WAR when WAR is the one making the claim.

Can anyone justify how PCA's 2016 season is 3x more valuable than Dawson's 1987? This is neither anecdote nor conjecture - WAR is making THIS SPECIFIC claim that Dawson '87 was a third as productive as PCA '26. 

PCA 2026 is an incredibly well-rounded player - but that makes him 3x more productive than the awesome, dominant, a-last-place-team-can't-stop-me-from-winning-the-MVP Dawson 1987? Reminder: Dawson was the first player to win MVP EVER on a last place team. Only ARod has done it since.

This is WAR making the claim - not me. Can anyone justify it - 3x more productive? 

Again, using other, non-WAR stats: couple dozen less SBs, 50 or so less walks, 5 more homers, slightly worse D (I mean, Dawson was an elite fielder or near-elite fielder, too, so let's certainly give PCA the nod but it's not like Dawson was Adam Dunn out there, LOL), and all while hitting on the best-hitting Cubs team in 150 years, LOL... 1/3 rd as productive?

WAR is making the claim - they're the ones who have to justify it. It sure doesn't seem like it holds water....

 

I wasn't calling your world view simple, I was simplifying your long answer into a short one.

You're creating a self-fulfilling prophecy here. "WAR can't be right. For WAR to be right, someone needs to explain to me why he's 3x more valuable without using WAR". 

My brother, WAR is the proof. You just don't/won't accept something that goes again your point-of-view.

I broke down how Pete is incredibly valuable and why he's worth more already. You can go back and look at that. Beyond that, WAR is proprietary: the formula is not public. And websites have different calculations and inputs (we do know some inputs. Ex. fWAR uses wRC+ and bWAR uses OPS+).  If you want to point out flaws within WAR, I think it's very easy to do. I can tell you why fWAR is superior to bWAR (the inputs). I can tell you that the difference between 3.4 fWAR and 3.6 fWAR is virtual and not worth debating. These are real flaws. They also don't take away the efficacy of WAR (no one has claimed it to be 100% perfect). But your complaint is so foundational that it can't be squared away and that those flaws are immaterial. 

I'd really recommend you do some reading on what WAR is. Until you understand fundamentally what it is, nothing will matter.

[ILMindState]

11 minutes ago, Javy Is Still a Cub 2 said:

Pages still leads MLB in assists and double plays despite missing - what, a month? Also leads OFers in almighty WAR, still. 

Dawson had the most HR and RBI in the NL in 20 and 10 years respectively. And he only got 20 GWRBI, but hey - LOL - it's his fault the Cubs were a last place team. (Tell me you don't play baseball without telling me you don't play baseball....)

23.8 is greater than 9.5. Hope that helps

[Javy Is Still a Cub 2]

I'm very familiar with WAR - I don't know why you assume that I do not?

I'm just a skeptic. Why? A million examples, like saying that PCA 2026 is 3x as productive as Dawson 1987 was. 

Saying "WAR is the proof" is saying I have to take WAR on faith - brother, I won't do that. Why? Again, a million examples which show that WAR is far from God (i.e. perfection). 

You're asking me to accept something which nobody can explain. Why would I do that?

I'll drop the subject - don't want to perseverate in a great thread. But I also don't think anyone is going to actually try and explain how PCA 2016 is 3x the player Dawson 1987 was (or Bruce "Hi, this is me revolutionzing the split-finger fastball" Sutter 1976 through 1980, LOL) without saying: just trust the WAR.  

Call me Ishmael, I mean Infidel! 

[mul21]

19 minutes ago, Javy Is Still a Cub 2 said:

Pages still leads MLB in assists and double plays despite missing - what, a month? Also leads OFers in almighty WAR, still. 

Dawson had the most HR and RBI in the NL in 20 and 10 years respectively. And he only got 20 GWRBI, but hey - LOL - it's his fault the Cubs were a last place team. (Tell me you don't play baseball without telling me you don't play baseball....)

Here's something maybe you can wrap your head around: PCA will likely have about the same number of hits that Dawson did in 1987 and will also finish with around 50 more walks than Dawson.  Now, some of that is related to the number of plate appearances but PCA will have gotten on base fully 5% more often than Dawson at season's end.  Do you know what the most important thing a hitter can do is?  That's right, not make outs, and PCA is 5% better than Dawson was in his MVP season.

[Javy Is Still a Cub 2]

19 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

23.8 is greater than 9.5. Hope that helps

Check bWar. Cheers

[mul21]

Just now, Javy Is Still a Cub 2 said:

I'm very familiar with WAR - I don't know why you assume that I do not?

I'm just a skeptic. Why? A million examples, like saying that PCA 2026 is 3x as productive as Dawson 1987 was. 

Saying "WAR is the proof" is saying I have to take WAR on faith - brother, I won't do that. Why? Again, a million examples which show that WAR is far from God (i.e. perfection). 

You're asking me to accept something which nobody can explain. Why would I do that?

I'll drop the subject - don't want to perseverate in a great thread. But I also don't think anyone is going to actually try and explain how PCA 2016 is 3x the player Dawson 1987 was (or Bruce "Hi, this is me revolutionzing the split-finger fastball" Sutter 1976 through 1980, LOL) without saying: just trust the WAR.  

Call me Ishmael, I mean Infidel! 

Because you clearly have no idea how it actually works and why using it to compare across different eras of the game makes sense.

[Javy Is Still a Cub 2]

9 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Here's something maybe you can wrap your head around: PCA will likely have about the same number of hits that Dawson did in 1987 and will also finish with around 50 more walks than Dawson.  Now, some of that is related to the number of plate appearances but PCA will have gotten on base fully 5% more often than Dawson at season's end.  Do you know what the most important thing a hitter can do is?  That's right, not make outs, and PCA is 5% better than Dawson was in his MVP season.

Ok, so 5% more makes him 3x more productive? 

Dawson on a last-place team - PCA on the best hitting Cubs team of all-time? Does that mean anything to you - i.e. getting pitched around or pitched to - or is that too much to wrap your head around? 

Ishmael! 

[Rcal10]

34 minutes ago, Javy Is Still a Cub 2 said:

Pages still leads MLB in assists and double plays despite missing - what, a month? Also leads OFers in almighty WAR, still. 

Dawson had the most HR and RBI in the NL in 20 and 10 years respectively. And he only got 20 GWRBI, but hey - LOL - it's his fault the Cubs were a last place team. (Tell me you don't play baseball without telling me you don't play baseball....)

Tell me your living in the 20th century in regards to how you watch baseball without telling me your living in the 20th century. 

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Your worldview is simple "There is no way Pete Crow-Armstrong could being having a season that is statistically three times more valuable than Andre Dawson" and you're having. hard time squaring how that could be possible. But notice; you've provided nothing outside of your world view, your opinion as to why it's flawed. If you have an argument about the actual statistic (like the inputs, or whatever), then maybe you'll find an audience for that argument. But just flailing against the statistic with nothing but anecdote and conjecture won't get you far. 

Let me try to explain to what fWAR is trying to say, and what you're simply missing.
1. In 1987, league offense was much better across the board. League average OPS was .747 and in 2026 league average is .719. What Pete is doing is much more impressive when we consider the scoring environment. Dawson was 24% better than average and PCA is 59% better than average. It's not even close. Put another way: Dawson was the 41st best offensive player in 1987 in MLB. Pete is the second. (Pete would have been the fourth best player offensive in '87)
2. Andre Dawson was a RF, and Pete Crow-Armstrong was a CF. CF is just a vastly more valuable position; it requires skills and tools that RF does not. fWAR gives proper boost for positions. RF is one of the most readily found positions and CF one of the hardest.
3. Dawson was an okay runner. Pete Crow-Armstrong is an elite one. 
4. PCA is a generational fielder. The type of defensive player we see pop up at his position maybe every 20 years. Dawson in 1987 was, with the tools we have merely "okay" defensively. When you factor in the positional aspect, it skews it greatly. And once again, it's not even close.

fWAR is trying to tell you "Dude, you're missing the point". Pete Crow-Armstrong is another layer of the atmosphere in terms of what he's doing when you take into the big picture. Instead of fighting back against fWAR, maybe try to understand why PCA is that much better. It'll give you a greater appreciation for the history you're currently witnessing and help put into perspective what you thought you once knew.

PCA is having an unbelievable year, but what is bolded above also shows how the quality of the hitters has diminished since 1987.

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, Javy Is Still a Cub 2 said:

I'm very familiar with WAR - I don't know why you assume that I do not?

I'm just a skeptic. Why? A million examples, like saying that PCA 2026 is 3x as productive as Dawson 1987 was. 

Saying "WAR is the proof" is saying I have to take WAR on faith - brother, I won't do that. Why? Again, a million examples which show that WAR is far from God (i.e. perfection). 

You're asking me to accept something which nobody can explain. Why would I do that?

I'll drop the subject - don't want to perseverate in a great thread. But I also don't think anyone is going to actually try and explain how PCA 2016 is 3x the player Dawson 1987 was (or Bruce "Hi, this is me revolutionzing the split-finger fastball" Sutter 1976 through 1980, LOL) without saying: just trust the WAR.  

Call me Ishmael, I mean Infidel! 

Familiarity does not equal understanding. In the nicest possible way, you have displayed time and time again today that you lack an understanding of what it's doing. If you don't understand why fWAR is telling you PCA's 2026 is so much better than Dawson's '87 than you simply can't understand, foundational, what WAR was created to do: to neutralize for position, league and era. And you don't understand how they're getting there. 

For example, you act like fWAR is supposed to care about a singular pitch type, or factor in how he "revolutionized" something. If you, at all, understood fWAR you'd realize how weird it is to even bring that up. 

So, please, if you're going to whine about something, do your best to first understand that something. We are also rapidly approaching the "I think this is just a troll" job with how little you seemingly want to better understand, as well, though I'll give you the benefit of the doubt still. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Backtobanks said:

PCA is having an unbelievable year, but what is bolded above also shows how the quality of the hitters has diminished since 1987.

No. What it shows is how much more difficult it is to hit baseballs today. Pitchers throw faster than ever, the ball moves more than ever and hitters face more pitchers than ever. 

Hitters didn't get worse. Pitching got exponentially better.

[Geographyhater8888]

27 minutes ago, Javy Is Still a Cub 2 said:

Ok, so 5% more makes him 3x more productive? 

Dawson on a last-place team - PCA on the best hitting Cubs team of all-time? Does that mean anything to you - i.e. getting pitched around or pitched to - or is that too much to wrap your head around? 

Ishmael! 

Dawson was 22nd in OPS, PCA is 2nd in OPS. WAR is adjusted for era and year. You can’t subtract war from a 900 OPS hitter in 2026 and give it to McGuire in 98 because he hit 70 homers, the cumulative league win percentage would be over 500, which is impossible.

If you’re on the topic of RBIs and plate appearances then penalizing PCA for less RBIs as a leadoff hitter is unfair too.

And If we’re awarding war and run value for RBIs, then how do you propose balancing run value? Subtract war from the baserunners who got on base and were driven in? Subtract war from guys who strikeout with the bases loaded?

 

 

Edited 27 minutes ago by Geographyhater8888

[Tryptamine]

I know this is likely trolling, but I'll try to give you the benefit of the doubt

Offensively:

2026 PCA wRC+ 159

1987 Dawson wRC+ 124

PCA is 59% better than the average 2026 hitter, Dawson was only 24% better than the average 1987 hitter.  2026 Seiya Suzuki(131) is a closer comp than PCA. So offensively they're not really comparable.

 

Defensively:

2026 PCA  23.8

1987 Dawson -7.7

Not only is PCA a much much better defender, he does it at a position much higher up the defensive spectrum

 

Baserunning:

2026 PCA  7.1

1987 Dawson .7

 

So he's a much better hitter, leagues and leagues better defensively and a much much better baserunner. Put that together and you have a much much better overall season

Edited 28 minutes ago by Tryptamine

[bukie]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I know this is likely trolling, but I'll try to give you 

Offensively:

2026 PCA wRC+ 159

1987 Dawson wRC+ 124

PCA is 59% better than the average 2026 hitter, Dawson was only 24% better than the average 1987 hitter.  2026 Seiya Suzuki(131) is a closer comp than PCA. So offensively they've not really comparable.

 

Defensively:

2026 PCA  23.8

1987 Dawson -7.7

Not only is PCA a much much better defender, he does it at a position much higher up the defensive spectrum

 

Baserunning:

2026 PCA  7.1

1987 Dawson .7

 

So he's a much better hitter, leagues and leagues better defensively and a much much better baserunner. Put that together and you have a much much better overall season

2026 Seiya Suzuki is like a 1987 Dawson that was willing to take walks.

[squally1313]

36 minutes ago, Javy Is Still a Cub 2 said:

Does that mean anything to you - i.e. getting pitched around or pitched to - or is that too much to wrap your head around? 

I think you guys are tilting at windmills trying to throw FG ratings at him, so in a...misguided attempt to engage....

I assume the implication here is that Dawson was pitched around because the rest of his team was terrible. If that's the case, why does he have so few walks? I suspect I'll probably lose you here, but in a non-metric/analytic way, the most important thing an offensive player can do in an at bat is not make an out. The league average OBP in 1987 was .331. Dawson's was .328. He was worse than league average at not making an out. Pete has a .375 OBP v a league average of .319. That's significantly better.