By Hook or Crook or Attrition, Matthew Boyd is the Cubs' Ace Again

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

The Cubs hoped Matthew Boyd would be their third starter most of the time this year. They entered the campaign with Cade Horton penciled in as the ace, and hopes were high for the electric arm of Edward Cabrera. Ideally, Justin Steele would have returned around this time, slotting back into his old place near the front of the rotation. Ben Brown emerged as a top-tier starter this spring. As good as Boyd was in 2025, the plan was to have him surrounded by hurlers of similar or higher caliber.

Plainly, that's not how things have turned out. Horton had Tommy John surgery. Steele had a setback (or two), and is unlikely to pitch in the majors this season. Cabrera sproinged two leg muscles on one stretch at the first-base bag and could be out until September. Brown suffered a recurrence of a previous neck issue, and he, too, might return only near the end of the season. At this point, Boyd is the unquestioned leader of this group, and barring a major acquisition before August 3, he'll be that guy for a while.

That makes his outing Tuesday night in Baltimore especially important. Boyd fanned seven and allowed just five baserunners in six shutout innings, as the Cubs won 5-2 to keep pace in the NL playoff race. It was, by far, the best outing of Boyd's oft-interrupted, uneven season. It was also a reminder that he's capable of turning in starts like this on a regular basis.

On Monday at Baseball Prospectus, I introduced a metric that uses Statcast's new swing timing and miss distance data to rate pitchers on their ability to disrupt swings. The stat is called Swing Disruption+ (I'm not good at branding), and it contains three components.

• Off Barrel+: How well a pitcher stays off the center of hitters' barrels, limiting damage on contact
• Upset Timing+: How well the hurler induces hitters to swing either too early or too late.
• Changed Eye Levels+: How well the pitcher uses vertical movement and deception to get above or below bats, maximizing swing-and-miss.

These correlate, of course, to Statcast's data itself, which breaks down swings into being centered, off the end of the bat or up the handle; being on time, early or late; and being lined up, over or under the ball. By weighing each of the components appropriately and making a few adjustments that reflect the asymmetrical value of inducing errors in the two potential directions in each dimension, I turned them into Swing Disruption+, which correlates as well with overall performance as you could hope, given that it only measures the skill of manipulating swings and leaves out the question of the strike zone.

Of the 368 pitchers who had 200 or more swings against them entering Sunday's games, Boyd ranked 10th in Swing DIsruption+, at 123, where 100 is average and higher is better. He's elite at upsetting timing (148), and above-average at both moving off the center of the barrel (116) and getting above or below bats (109). He doesn't do it in the most conventional way, but Boyd is elite at messing with swings.

After multiple stints on the injured list, Boyd is finally finding a rhythm this year. If he can maintain it and stay healthy the rest of the way, yes, he can be a frontline starter for a playoff team. He showed how dominant he can be Tuesday night, and we have better insight than ever into what he does to flummox opposing batters. The Cubs need more help, but Boyd is good enough to be the ace of this team, under the circumstances.

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[Patrick88]

They could trade him for some prospects at the deadline....  I know fans do not want to hear that.  This would be the Cubs version of the White Flag trade, but it is something that needs to be done.  

[Matthew Trueblood]

10 minutes ago, Patrick88 said:

They could trade him for some prospects at the deadline....  I know fans do not want to hear that.  This would be the Cubs version of the White Flag trade, but it is something that needs to be done.  

I think you're three weeks late on that thinking, man. I agree that they're never going to catch the Brewers, but the combination of where they now stand in the Wild Card race and what they have invested in this season means there's just no chance they're trading away anyone they can't replace or improve upon on the fly. Selling is out the window for this team; they would only ever have considered it in an unmitigated crisis, of which they came to the brink but which they've now avoided.

[Development DL]

What other Cubs pitchers , rank at least solidly on this scale .  Nice work . 

[Outshined_One]

29 minutes ago, Patrick88 said:

They could trade him for some prospects at the deadline....  I know fans do not want to hear that.  This would be the Cubs version of the White Flag trade, but it is something that needs to be done.  

They're currently 7 games behind the Brewers for the division and are a half game up on the top WC spot.  Why does this need to be done?

Even thinking about returns, you can hope for something comparable to what the Guardians got for Bieber last season (SP Khal Stephen; borderline Top 100 prospect), except Bieber was roughly five years younger and had a better pre-injury track record than Boyd.  The odds of the Cubs getting someone who could meaningfully impact the team's chances in 2027/2028 are not particularly good.

[Geographyhater8888]

Boyd is the only starting pitcher on this staff that I any faith in who projects to be in the rotation.

Edited 1 hour ago by Geographyhater8888

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

2 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

They're currently 7 games behind the Brewers for the division and are a half game up on the top WC spot.  Why does this need to be done?

Even thinking about returns, you can hope for something comparable to what the Guardians got for Bieber last season (SP Khal Stephen; borderline Top 100 prospect), except Bieber was roughly five years younger and had a better pre-injury track record than Boyd.  The odds of the Cubs getting someone who could meaningfully impact the team's chances in 2027/2028 are not particularly good.

This is the same guy that wants to trade PCA. He's either a troll or the biggest doomer I've ever seen

[CubUgly]

1 minute ago, Outshined_One said:

They're currently 7 games behind the Brewers for the division and are a half game up on the WC spot.  Why does this need to be done?

Even thinking about returns, you can hope for something comparable to what the Guardians got for Bieber last season (SP Khal Stephen; borderline Top 100 prospect), except Bieber was roughly five years younger and had a better pre-injury track record than Boyd.  The odds of the Cubs getting someone who could meaningfully impact the team's chances in 2027/2028 are not particularly good.

THIS ^^^^  I mean, I at least understand the idea why one might think it a course of action, but Boyd - at least IMHO is not the person that will get what you'd need to be a reasonable option to try - and for me not even close.....and for the very reasons you list out. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

14 minutes ago, Development DL said:

What other Cubs pitchers , rank at least solidly on this scale .  Nice work . 

Good question! (And thanks!)

Notable Cubs in Swing Disruption+:

Boyd 123

Maton 117

Webb 116

Brown 104 (I'd have to check, but I suspect this is way up compared to last year)

Cabrera 96

Rea 92

Assad 78 (yikes; I still haven't found any analytical support at all for how much I like and believe in him. He might really just be doing devil magic to avoid getting shelled every time)

[Rcal10]

33 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

This is the same guy that wants to trade PCA. He's either a troll or the biggest doomer I've ever seen

My guess is troll. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, Patrick88 said:

They could trade him for some prospects at the deadline....  I know fans do not want to hear that.  This would be the Cubs version of the White Flag trade, but it is something that needs to be done.  

They dont want to hear it because its asinine 

Edited 18 minutes ago by We Got The Whole 9