Hypothetical thread to discuss trading prospect(s) for starting pitchers

[lfg26]

Just to get the thread going...

I'd trade...

-Rojas, Alcantara //// Joe Ryan

-Rojas, Ballesteros, Alcantara, Triantos, Will Sanders //// Tarik Skubal

That was just off the top of my head. And I'm only mentioning trading Rojas because he has lots of value right now, along with the fact that he's position blocked pretty bad at the big league level.

Edited Sunday at 10:09 PM by lfg26

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

If Joe Ryan only cost Rojas and KA I'd do it immediately 

[Bertz]

The big question IMO is to consider is where do we have depth you'd want to deal from? 

- Infielders, obviously.  We're 3.5 seasons from an infield spot opening up.  That doesn't mean you absolutely clean house on minor league infielders, but it does means that anyone you keep needs to be a complement to the current group or have the juice in the bat to survive a move to the grass

- RHH bats in the upper levels seem ripe, both because of the volume and because of the knock on effects of the infield being locked down as mentioned above.  There's probably not a world where all three of Shaw/Alcantara/Rojas all coexist on the same roster for instance, and you can easily see quality bench outcomes from some of the other second tier guys like Long, Triantos, and Trice

- Catcher attrition is a horsefeathers and none of them are making any money yet, so there's no urgency, but the org has some high quality catcher depth.  Especially if they intend to re-sign Kelly (which, pending the particulars, I'd be very into)

- Outfielders, man the org is loaded with outfielders.  Upper levels, lower levels, lefties, righties, speed/contact types and power/whiff types.  Like Brett Bateman is an age appropriate CFer at AAA with a 118 wRC+ and he doesn't get talked about at all outside of this insular community of prospect sickos.  Ditto Carter Trice

Take it all together, and it feels like Rojas, Alcantara, and Kepley are probably the most clear pieces of trade bait.  Whoever the org views as the lesser of Mo/Ayers is pretty high up there too.  They all (presumably) have good value, but a combo of their skillset, their proximity, and the depth at their positions make them ideal pieces to dangle in trade.

I'd probably try and use Kepley/Alcantara to try and snag a high-end rental (Gray?), Rojas/Kepley/Alcantara to try and snag someone with team control (Detmers?), and break out the Mo/Rojas/Kepley big guns if some blockbuster opportunity presented itself.

For smaller trades, relievers and such, I think you lead with trying to clear out the depth at Iowa.  Triantos, Long, has Murray rebuilt his value, etc.  I think, aside from Bateman (he might be an ideal compliment for Shaw/Alcantara) a lot of these guys have had their most reasonable paths to playing time in Chicago cut off.

[Outshined_One]

This feels more like a general topic than anything minors-specific.

I've made my opinions known elsewhere, but I think everyone who is a prospect or prospect-adjacent (Ramirez/Alcantara) is fair game in a deal for someone with multiple years of control.

[Rcal10]

16 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

If Joe Ryan only cost Rojas and KA I'd do it immediately 

Ryan only has 27’ after this year. I wouldn’t think he should cost more than that. I think I would do that, but not as certain as you are. Giving up 6 years of control from Rojas and Alcantara, I would rather get someone back with a little more time left than Ryan. But, if that is the cost of doing business, maybe I would just pay it.

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The big question IMO is to consider is where do we have depth you'd want to deal from? 

- Infielders, obviously.  We're 3.5 seasons from an infield spot opening up.  That doesn't mean you absolutely clean house on minor league infielders, but it does means that anyone you keep needs to be a complement to the current group or have the juice in the bat to survive a move to the grass

- RHH bats in the upper levels seem ripe, both because of the volume and because of the knock on effects of the infield being locked down as mentioned above.  There's probably not a world where all three of Shaw/Alcantara/Rojas all coexist on the same roster for instance, and you can easily see quality bench outcomes from some of the other second tier guys like Long, Triantos, and Trice

- Catcher attrition is a horsefeathers and none of them are making any money yet, so there's no urgency, but the org has some high quality catcher depth.  Especially if they intend to re-sign Kelly (which, pending the particulars, I'd be very into)

- Outfielders, man the org is loaded with outfielders.  Upper levels, lower levels, lefties, righties, speed/contact types and power/whiff types.  Like Brett Bateman is an age appropriate CFer at AAA with a 118 wRC+ and he doesn't get talked about at all outside of this insular community of prospect sickos.  Ditto Carter Trice

Take it all together, and it feels like Rojas, Alcantara, and Kepley are probably the most clear pieces of trade bait.  Whoever the org views as the lesser of Mo/Ayers is pretty high up there too.  They all (presumably) have good value, but a combo of their skillset, their proximity, and the depth at their positions make them ideal pieces to dangle in trade.

I'd probably try and use Kepley/Alcantara to try and snag a high-end rental (Gray?), Rojas/Kepley/Alcantara to try and snag someone with team control (Detmers?), and break out the Mo/Rojas/Kepley big guns if some blockbuster opportunity presented itself.

For smaller trades, relievers and such, I think you lead with trying to clear out the depth at Iowa.  Triantos, Long, has Murray rebuilt his value, etc.  I think, aside from Bateman (he might be an ideal compliment for Shaw/Alcantara) a lot of these guys have had their most reasonable paths to playing time in Chicago cut off.

Who would constitute a big gun in your opinion? I imagine someone with more control than Detmer? Maybe Meyer? But I doubt he is available. Having a hard time thinking of anyone. Maybe Tolle?
Who cost more, Detmer, Soriano or Ryan? The first two have an extra year of control. 

[CubinNY]

They have painted themselves into a box b/c they have a formula that appears to produce good, not great teams by drafting and signing (in free agency) good, not great players who fit their formula. There is nothing necessarily wrong with the process, but it relies on positive outomes that are possible but slightly improbable. On the plus side, they have Josiah Hartshorn who looks like a true find and if he continues on his path is a game changer. They have some real potential in some of their starters so we will see. 

They have a set lineup for the next few years with room for catcher, RF, LF, and 1st base (potentially). They do not have much pitching certainty (who does?). 

So their top prospects or at least tradable for SP have no place to play. It puts them in a potenitally tough bargining postion.

Jed and his team will need to be very creative to improve this team to move the margins from good to great. They should get into the playoffs. If that is the goal every year then their formula is working. I think we'd all like the bar set higher, but the ROI for guys like Jed and Tom isn't there.

It will be interesting to see what they do this year, if anything. 

Edited Monday at 03:46 PM by CubinNY

[chibears55]

Im kind of on the fench right now as to whether or not I think going out and trading any of their top prospects this deadline would be worthwhile for this season. 

They are far more away from being a WS contender,  or maybe even just getting to the NLCS then just 1 really good SP and Bullpen arm.

Seriously, how much confidence do you have in the others (Taillon, Boyd, Rea, Peterson) to get the job done to help get them there? Outside of Imanaga that can get to the 6th, the others barely get you 5 innings.

Then theres the bullpen...

You have to hold your breath every time one enters a close game because you have little or no confidence in them to get it done, and it feels like a miracle if they actually have a clean inning(lol).

Because of the poor SP, they have to count on these guys for 4 plus innings just about every game,  along with the offense that like jeckyll and Hyde every series, to put up 5+ runs.

 

Not saying it wont help, just not sure itll be enough to get them to the WS, which is the goal.

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Some names I like:

 

Gray 

Eovaldi (although Rangers are 3rd WC spot today)

Gausman

Jack Perkins - R5 pick and A's have put him in the rotation for the last few weeks - 6 starts, mixed bag, but good K/velo numbers. Intriguing. 

Peralta

Webb

 

[Bertz]

35 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Who would constitute a big gun in your opinion? I imagine someone with more control than Detmer? Maybe Meyer? But I doubt he is available. Having a hard time thinking of anyone. Maybe Tolle?
Who cost more, Detmer, Soriano or Ryan? The first two have an extra year of control. 

Hunter Brown, assuming his medicals look clean.  One of the Mariners' guys.  Gavin Williams. Payton Tolle probably?  Max Meyer's the right type of talent, but he makes Cade Horton look like Tom Glavine.

I don't expect it to happen.

[chibears55]

3 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

They have painted themselves into a box b/c they have a formula that appears to produce good, not great teams by drafting and signing (in free agency) good, not great players who fit their formula. There is nothing necessarily wrong with the process, but it relies on positive outomes that are possible but slightly improbable. On the plus side, they have Josiah Hartshorn who looks like a true find and if he continues on his path is a game changer. They have some real potential in some of their starters so we will see. 

They have a set lineup for the next few years with room for catcher, RF, LF, and 1st base (potentially). They do not have much pitching certainty (who does?). 

So their top prospects or at least tradable for SP have no place to play. It puts them in a potenitally tough bargining postion.

Jed and his team will need to be very creative to improve this team to move the margins from good to great. They should get into the playoffs. If that is the goal every year then their formula is working. I think we'd all like the bar set higher, but the ROI for guys like Jed and Tom isn't there.

It will be interesting to see what they do this year, if anything. 

Won't happen but this would be a perfect offseason for a new top guy to come in and create a new type of roster for them.

Theyll have a bunch of money coming off the book, and tradable assets via prospects and current players on the roster.

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

47 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Ryan only has 27’ after this year. I wouldn’t think he should cost more than that.

There's a good chance Joe Ryan will be worth more wins in his next 40 starts than Rojas and Alcantara will be in their entire careers, and I like both of them. Not to mention Rojas is also completely blocked position wise.

[PackLandVA]

Not to nitpick, but isn't this an "actual" thread?

[Outshined_One]

18 minutes ago, PackLandVA said:

Not to nitpick, but isn't this an "actual" thread?

It originally was in the Minors forum and I made the call to move it over.  Merging threads is kind of a PITA, soooo 🤷‍♂️

[PackLandVA]

11 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

It originally was in the Minors forum and I made the call to move it over.  Merging threads is kind of a PITA, soooo 🤷‍♂️

Was being cute as the thread title is "Hypothetical thread.....". Not really hypothetical at all. This is an actual thread. 😀

[CubinNY]

47 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Im kind of on the fench right now as to whether or not I think going out and trading any of their top prospects this deadline would be worthwhile for this season. 

They are far more away from being a WS contender,  or maybe even just getting to the NLCS then just 1 really good SP and Bullpen arm.

Seriously, how much confidence do you have in the others (Taillon, Boyd, Rea, Peterson) to get the job done to help get them there? Outside of Imanaga that can get to the 6th, the others barely get you 5 innings.

Then theres the bullpen...

You have to hold your breath every time one enters a close game because you have little or no confidence in them to get it done, and it feels like a miracle if they actually have a clean inning(lol).

Because of the poor SP, they have to count on these guys for 4 plus innings just about every game,  along with the offense that like jeckyll and Hyde every series, to put up 5+ runs.

 

Not saying it wont help, just not sure itll be enough to get them to the WS, which is the goal.

 

anything is possible in a short series.

[Geographyhater8888]

Michael Soroka intrigues me. 

[Outshined_One]

7 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

anything is possible in a short series.

I had a whole post written out and ready to go about the Dodgers and practicalities of winning multiple playoff series in the NL, but this pretty much sums it up.

I'm not saying they should Bulls it and aim for one of the WC spots while hoping for their next ten game winning streak coincides with the postseason, but if they're good enough to win the division, then they should be good enough to make the WS (even if they don't).

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, Outshined_One said:

I had a whole post written out and ready to go about the Dodgers and practicalities of winning multiple playoff series in the NL, but this pretty much sums it up.

I'm not saying they should Bulls it and aim for one of the WC spots while hoping for their next ten game winning streak coincides with the postseason, but if they're good enough to win the division, then they should be good enough to make the WS (even if they don't).

It was a much different environment but teams like the Rockies (07) and Marlins (03), weren't great teams, but they were playing the best sustained baseball going into the playoffs. Obviously the Rockies lost and the Marlins won, the point is this Cubs team is capable of winning 11 to 13 games against any teams who make the playoffs; it's not that likely, though. 

[Outshined_One]

14 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

It was a much different environment but teams like the Rockies (07) and Marlins (03), weren't great teams, but they were playing the best sustained baseball going into the playoffs. Obviously the Rockies lost and the Marlins won, the point is this Cubs team is capable of winning 11 to 13 games against any teams who make the playoffs; it's not that likely, though. 

You don't even need to go that far back; the 2023 WS featured two wild card teams (Rangers & Diamondbacks).

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

It was a much different environment but teams like the Rockies (07) and Marlins (03), weren't great teams, but they were playing the best sustained baseball going into the playoffs. Obviously the Rockies lost and the Marlins won, the point is this Cubs team is capable of winning 11 to 13 games against any teams who make the playoffs; it's not that likely, though. 

I think any team other than the Dodgers can say it is unlikely, however. If the Cubs get a solid playoff starter in a trade, then between Imanaga, Boyd, Cabrera and Brown one or two of them of them gets hot, anything can happen. If Palencia comes back healthy as well as Milner and Pomeranz pitches like last year, those guys with Webb, Rea and Rolison might not be half bad. Especially if they add another pen arm. I realize a lot has to break right. But any time a team wins a WS things have to break right. 

Edited Monday at 05:17 PM by Rcal10

[mul21]

You don't need to look any further than the 2006 Cardinals, who are by far the worst regular season team to ever win a WS, to see a team that got both healthy and hot at the right time to go all the way.  We even have a burgeoning starter who can be plugged into the bullpen as a relief ace like Wainwright was that year in Wiggins.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

There's a good chance Joe Ryan will be worth more wins in his next 40 starts than Rojas and Alcantara will be in their entire careers, and I like both of them. Not to mention Rojas is also completely blocked position wise.

I wouldn’t call it a good chance. There is a chance. But there is also a chance that each of those guys over the course of the next 6 years is worth 5 times what Ryan is worth in 40 starts. Maybe even more. There is much more upside on the twins side of that trade. Please understand I am not prospect hugging. Cubs do need to trade some and bring back a solid pitcher. I am not even  saying I wouldn’t make the trade we are discussing, but you are basically totally devaluing the prospects. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Hunter Brown, assuming his medicals look clean.  One of the Mariners' guys.  Gavin Williams. Payton Tolle probably?  Max Meyer's the right type of talent, but he makes Cade Horton look like Tom Glavine.

I don't expect it to happen.

Ok. Sure, I agree with you on the big guns. Problem is none will be available, with the possible exception of Tolle. Also, don’t get the reference of Tom Glavine. 
If they go rental I hope for Gray or Mize. If they go control years left I hope for Detmer. I like Ryan but I think the cost will be too high for having only 1 more year. 

[Dfan25]

I know pitching is the priority as it should be , but I wonder if they will look to add a right handed 1B that hits for power againts lefties .

Busch has done a nice job getting on base againts lefties , but he can’t slug againts them . He can’t slug againts anybody actually this year . 
 

I think they will look for a cost controlled SP regardless , but if they can’t get that , the quality of the rental will depend on how close they are to Milwaukee   They will add at least 1 high leverage arm , if not two in the pen 

Edited Monday at 08:52 PM by Dfan25