Cubs (Rea) vs Pirates (Skenes): 5/28/26, 5:40pm

[SpongeWorthy]

that’s two thus far shooter 

[Bull]

20 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

I thought it was the opposite?  Aren’t they good friends?! 

Could be. Might be that they both have that super-serious, no fun allowed personality and it looks like they’re angry with each other rather than just sharing a vibe.

 

[NorthsideAvenger]

Lose 10 in a row. Break the streak. Beat Paul Skenes.

Just as you draw it up.

[Butch Gernant]

Thank you Pirates defense!

[Geographyhater8888]

This was a makeup for the Sunday loss vs Houston where the Cubs lost 8-5 with an xWOBA of 398 vs Houston’s 276. Seemed like the Cubs were on the receiving end of batted ball luck last night. 
 

I’ll take a 7-2 win in a Rea vs Skenes matchup either way.

[BigbadB]

11 hours ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Counsell always leaves Rea in 1 inning too long and the outcome is always predictable 

Some folks should just go to bed instead of making comments like this. But, I suppose there is one in every crowd that thinks rewarding a SP with a spot at the end of the bench while sporting a low pitch count and a shut out. 

[gflore34]

2 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

This was a makeup for the Sunday loss vs Houston where the Cubs lost 8-5 with an xWOBA of 398 vs Houston’s 276. Seemed like the Cubs were on the receiving end of batted ball luck last night. 
 

I’ll take a 7-2 win in a Rea vs Skenes matchup either way.

First game of this series as well, Cubs smoked several balls with nothing to show.  It's baseball, we all knew the Cubs being on bad end of batted ball luck was going to stop at some point.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, BigbadB said:

Some folks should just go to bed instead of making comments like this. But, I suppose there is one in every crowd that thinks rewarding a SP with a spot at the end of the bench while sporting a low pitch count and a shut out. 

Hes not wrong about the 3rd time through penalty being more likely for Rea. You get 5 shutout from him, I think a team with a lockdown pen, would take it and run. But we dont have that; the chances that either he or the pen starts leaking are probably close to equal.

[squally1313]

51 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Hes not wrong about the 3rd time through penalty being more likely for Rea. You get 5 shutout from him, I think a team with a lockdown pen, would take it and run. But we dont have that; the chances that either he or the pen starts leaking are probably close to equal.

It's not just that we don't have a lockdown pen though, it's that the rest of our starters have the same problems Rea does. Shota is fine when he's on, Brown isn't someone you want to stretch, and Taillon and Wicks are worse than Rea. You can't limit 4 or 5 starters to 18 PAs over any sort of extended period, especially when whatever length we had in the bullpen is now in the rotation (or working up to be).

We need 2 starters, maybe more. The ones available are available for a reason, the good ones aren't out there yet, and there's going to need to be a decision made on whether you want to overpay for them (my vote), or hope you get really, really lucky with Boyd/Wiggins/Steele somehow hitting full strength and staying there down the stretch. 

[Rcal10]

47 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Hes not wrong about the 3rd time through penalty being more likely for Rea. You get 5 shutout from him, I think a team with a lockdown pen, would take it and run. But we dont have that; the chances that either he or the pen starts leaking are probably close to equal.

True. I am sure Counsell realized he was on borrowed time with Rea. But he has to try saving the pen arms so hoping he can get thru 6 is not a bad idea. With this pen, the 6th would have probably been Thornton. Then if the game is tight yiu have to burn through 3 others at an inning a piece. Without the advantage of hindsight, does brining Thornton in when the starter has a reasonable pitch count and a shutout going really any better than leaving Rea in. Problem was Reynolds owns Rea. So even that homer doesn’t get Counsell moving in the direction that Rea is done. And I don’t blame him for that. Once he gave up a hit he got him out. Which is exactly the time I would have as well. He was now over 90 pitches and in the middle of the line up seeing him a 3rd time. And, tbh, the hit he gave up sucked. Peanut may have overreacted a bit. But he clearly doesn’t like Counsell and was frustrated, so I get it. Maybe guys should sometimes take a breath and think things out before posting, but that isn’t going to happen. Not on an in game thread. Counsell absolutely played that right. And in the end things worked out well, too. 

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

It's not just that we don't have a lockdown pen though, it's that the rest of our starters have the same problems Rea does. Shota is fine when he's on, Brown isn't someone you want to stretch, and Taillon and Wicks are worse than Rea. You can't limit 4 or 5 starters to 18 PAs over any sort of extended period, especially when whatever length we had in the bullpen is now in the rotation (or working up to be).

We need 2 starters, maybe more. The ones available are available for a reason, the good ones aren't out there yet, and there's going to need to be a decision made on whether you want to overpay for them (my vote), or hope you get really, really lucky with Boyd/Wiggins/Steele somehow hitting full strength and staying there down the stretch. 

I agree, except I don’t feel they need to get real, real lucky with Boyd. I think he will be fine. The other two I am not counting on at all. IMO they will have Boyd, Cabrera, Imanaga and Brown in the rotation (healthy, hopefully) from mid June on. I have no idea what they do with 5. Unless they dfa Tailon, I think it will be him. I think with Tailon, Rea goes to the pen. Of/when they trade for a pitcher Tailon has to be let go. 
Also, for all the complaining about the pen, the Cubs pen is 12th in era and 8th in whip. The Cubs are 25-0 when leading after 7. Considering all the injuries the staff has had and all the juggling what has been needed to put together a pen, that isn’t bad. Especially when you consider the guy they gave the most money to is doing poorly. It is definitely not lock down. But it also isn’t nearly as bad as some make it out to be. 

Edited May 29 by Rcal10

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree, except I don’t feel they need to get real, real lucky with Boyd. I think he will be fine. The other two I am not counting on at all. IMO they will have Boyd, Cabrera, Imanaga and Brown in the rotation (healthy, hopefully) from mid June on. I have no idea what they do with 5. Unless they dfa Tailon, I think it will be him. I think with Tailon, Rea goes to the pen. Of/when they trade for a pitcher Tailon has to be let go. 

I think they need a body now, basically figure out a way to clone Colin Rea. But I still want an upgrade in talent. Edward Cabrera throws real fast, but he's also 88th in FIP for pitchers with over 40 innings this year. That's a bad third pitcher by league average metrics. Yes, Boyd, Imanaga, and Brown are all better (though Shota has his own problems)....but are we really going to look in the mirror in July and say we're good with, best case scenario, our postseason rotation being Boyd and Shota (again) and then the guy who will almost assuredly be way past his career innings?

My general philosophy towards things is actually probably that we should do that. That this team is good enough to make the playoffs, and it's a crapshoot from there, and the best pitcher in the world probably doesn't move our chances enough to justify the wins down the road. Statistically, make the playoffs every year with this high floor approach, play as many hands as you can. But also, I'm impatient and I like rooting for awesome players and winning now is cooler than winning down the road (and we should find/pay for/produce good replacement players later anyways). Go do something stupid. 

[mul21]

41 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

The Cubs are 25-0 when leading after 7. 

I think this right here is a testament to how well Counsell and the rest of the coaching staff manages the pen.  They aren't chasing wins with their best guys when trailing late, the guys they trust are available on the days they need them to hold a lead and they get matchups they like if they have to go to a less trusted arm.  

[Rcal10]

56 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think this right here is a testament to how well Counsell and the rest of the coaching staff manages the pen.  They aren't chasing wins with their best guys when trailing late, the guys they trust are available on the days they need them to hold a lead and they get matchups they like if they have to go to a less trusted arm.  

I agree. I also think it says something about the “scrap heap” philosophy the FO uses for putting a pen together. It really isn’t just blindly throwing darts and hoping things work out. Considering all the injuries and, now, having Brown and Rea in the rotation instead of the pen, the pen is doing “ok”. If there were not injuries to the rotation that “ok” pen would have Rea and Brown on it, making it a good pen. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, mul21 said:

I think this right here is a testament to how well Counsell and the rest of the coaching staff manages the pen.  They aren't chasing wins with their best guys when trailing late, the guys they trust are available on the days they need them to hold a lead and they get matchups they like if they have to go to a less trusted arm.  

I wonder how much of that 25 was mainly from having Brown in the pen pitching to the 7th/8th inning, and a healthyRiley Martin ? Obviously with Thielbar and Palencia closing it out.

[PeanutPunch33]

5 hours ago, BigbadB said:

Some folks should just go to bed instead of making comments like this. But, I suppose there is one in every crowd that thinks rewarding a SP with a spot at the end of the bench while sporting a low pitch count and a shut out. 

Well to be fair, it's not like folks necessarily disagreed that Counsell is doing this.  But like they accurately pointed out, it's because the Cubs are down their 3 best starting pitchers and have a crappy bullpen.  They have to make some difficult decisions right now that they probably wouldn't make if they had a fully healthy roster.  I was not taking that into account in that moment, and that's my bad.  

Edited May 29 by PeanutPunch33

[BKHoo]

The Cubs don’t have a “crappy” bullpen. If you are going to make that strong negative assessment, back it up with numbers.  

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, BKHoo said:

The Cubs don’t have a “crappy” bullpen. If you are going to make that strong negative assessment, back it up with numbers.  

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2026&month=0&season1=2026&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=rel

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2026&month=0&season1=2026&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=rel

 Because of the defense the Cubs play they are always going to out perform their expected numbers. Bottom line is they are 12th in era and 8th in whip. They are certainly not great, but I wouldn’t call them crappy. And, when you factor in, had they been healthy guys like Rea and Brown would have been in the pen, and Theilbar and Palencia would have been there the entire season, the pen would be far from crappy but for injuries. Probably even top 10 in baseball. I not even counting Harvey, because he was always a guy you had to expect would get hurt. 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

 Because of the defense the Cubs play they are always going to out perform their expected numbers. Bottom line is they are 12th in era and 8th in whip. They are certainly not great, but I wouldn’t call them crappy. And, when you factor in, had they been healthy guys like Rea and Brown would have been in the pen, and Theilbar and Palencia would have been there the entire season, the pen would be far from crappy but for injuries. Probably even top 10 in baseball. I not even counting Harvey, because he was always a guy you had to expect would get hurt. 

No, that's not how this works. The statistics there isolate (not perfectly, but better than any sort of eye test) the actual pitching performance. The actual Cubs pitchers don't get credit for the defense behind them. Better pitchers would have better expected numbers, and then they would also outperform them. 

Ben Brown and Colin Rea (who isn't good) aren't in the bullpen. You're layering in all these caveats and hypotheticals just to get to 'probably top 10'. They're including 0.6 fWAR from Ben Brown in that 0.0 total for the year too. Maton is a negative, Thornton is a negative, Rolison is a negative, Thielbar (5.7 BB/9) is a negative. That's half the pen! Go scroll through other contending teams bullpens and tell us ours is even close. 

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

 Because of the defense the Cubs play they are always going to out perform their expected numbers. Bottom line is they are 12th in era and 8th in whip. They are certainly not great, but I wouldn’t call them crappy. And, when you factor in, had they been healthy guys like Rea and Brown would have been in the pen, and Theilbar and Palencia would have been there the entire season, the pen would be far from crappy but for injuries. Probably even top 10 in baseball. I not even counting Harvey, because he was always a guy you had to expect would get hurt. 

Not all are crappy , but they do and did have a few crappy ones.

Losing Brown, Assad,  and Rea because of rotation injuries has hurt them a bit, along with losing a couple guys due to injuries, and then they had to insert their not as good depth guys.

Thielbar and Palencia returning has helped

 

 

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, squally1313 said:

No, that's not how this works. The statistics there isolate (not perfectly, but better than any sort of eye test) the actual pitching performance. The actual Cubs pitchers don't get credit for the defense behind them. Better pitchers would have better expected numbers, and then they would also outperform them. 

Ben Brown and Colin Rea (who isn't good) aren't in the bullpen. You're layering in all these caveats and hypotheticals just to get to 'probably top 10'. They're including 0.6 fWAR from Ben Brown in that 0.0 total for the year too. Maton is a negative, Thornton is a negative, Rolison is a negative, Thielbar (5.7 BB/9) is a negative. That's half the pen! Go scroll through other contending teams bullpens and tell us ours is even close. 

You named 2 guys (Rolison, and Thornton) who wouldn’t be in the majors if not for injuries. I know metrics don’t like the Cubs pen and I also know it isn’t great. But the results are not as bad as several make them out to be. 25-0 leading after 7. WHIP is 8th in baseball. I know ERA isn’t perfect because if you let an inherited runner in it doesn’t cost your ERA. But often it is a pen guy giving up a run for another pen guy so regardless of who gets dinged for the run, it goes against the pen era. I think at times people get too wrapped up in metrics and don’t look at actual results. Actual results have the Cubs not blowing a lead after 7. Actual results have the pen putting 1.24 men on base (8th best in baseball) per inning. Actual results have the Cubs pen ERA 12th best. This isn’t eye test. This is actual results. 
I know the Cubs pitchers don’t get credit for defense around them. What I am saying is the Cubs defense will make ACTUAL RESULTS of the pen better than what the expected result would be based on metrics. 
I am I. No way suggesting the pen is solid. Just arguing it isn’t crappy and would have been pretty good handy stayed healthy. Maybe not based on metrics, but actual results, which to me matter more. 

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

You named 2 guys (Rolison, and Thornton) who wouldn’t be in the majors if not for injuries. I know metrics don’t like the Cubs pen and I also know it isn’t great. But the results are not as bad as several make them out to be. 25-0 leading after 7. WHIP is 8th in baseball. I know ERA isn’t perfect because if you let an inherited runner in it doesn’t cost your ERA. But often it is a pen guy giving up a run for another pen guy so regardless of who gets dinged for the run, it goes against the pen era. I think at times people get too wrapped up in metrics and don’t look at actual results. Actual results have the Cubs not blowing a lead after 7. Actual results have the pen putting 1.24 men on base (8th best in baseball) per inning. Actual results have the Cubs pen ERA 12th best. This isn’t eye test. This is actual results. 
I know the Cubs pitchers don’t get credit for defense around them. What I am saying is the Cubs defense will make ACTUAL RESULTS of the pen better than what the expected result would be based on metrics. 
I am I. No way suggesting the pen is solid. Just arguing it isn’t crappy and would have been pretty good handy stayed healthy. Maybe not based on metrics, but actual results, which to me matter more. 

There are some structural advantages, namely defense, in place that would benefit all pitchers. There are some statistics in place that show a fair bit of luck (namely LOB%). I get that this 25-0 stat is the new hot thing to cite. We’ve gotten slightly above average results thus far and any reading of the metrics would say it’s likely to get worse. 
 

This is getting into dumb semantic territory. Javier Assad running an ERA well below his FIP meant that he got good results, but ultimately he didn’t invent clutch pitching, he just wasn’t a good pitcher who was getting good results. Apply that to the majority of the guys down there at the moment. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

There are some structural advantages, namely defense, in place that would benefit all pitchers. There are some statistics in place that show a fair bit of luck (namely LOB%). I get that this 25-0 stat is the new hot thing to cite. We’ve gotten slightly above average results thus far and any reading of the metrics would say it’s likely to get worse. 
 

This is getting into dumb semantic territory. Javier Assad running an ERA well below his FIP meant that he got good results, but ultimately he didn’t invent clutch pitching, he just wasn’t a good pitcher who was getting good results. Apply that to the majority of the guys down there at the moment. 

I get it. And I also know we wouldn’t agree on this. But for now, just using bottom line results. The Cubs pen isn’t crappy. It isn’t a high bar to say “not crappy”. I am in no way suggesting good. They are getting the job done. And in end results they haven’t been bad. 

[chibears55]

...

Edited May 29 by chibears55