Trade deadline target

[Rcal10]

My “way too early” prediction on the Cubs biggest TDL pick up this deadline is Robby Ray. Giants will probably be out of it. This is Ray’s last year in his contract. Seems a perfect fit of not having to pay too much, since he is a rental, and he is still an effective pitcher.

Obviously, things can change. Guys like Gray and Gallen are also in their last year, but neither is pitching well right now. I just don’t see the Cubs trading multiple higher end guys to get a guy they can have 2 or 3 years behind this season. So, to me, any rotation piece brought in will be a rental.

[Old Style]

Giants will probably be out of it? Lol. 

[Outshined_One]

I get the feeling we're going to see another TDL where teams hang onto starting pitching for dear life and high quality relief pitchers will carry ludicrous prices.

As a result, as much as I'd like to think the Cubs can nab MacKenzie Gore or Joe Ryan or another #1/#2 type, I don't think their farm is in a good position to pull off a trade for either.  Their top-end prospects are either not ML-ready (Ramirez, Rojas, Hartshorn) or carry serious questions (Alcantara's Ks/contact rates, Wiggins' health, Conrad's health).  It's not like last season, where Mo and Caissie were easy to envision as immediate contributors to a team at the big league level.  I almost think the Cubs would have to pull from the big league club to get a deal like that done, but I just don't see it happening.

It's disappointing, but we should probably prepare for another Soroka-type as the Cubs' headline acquisition at the deadline.

[squally1313]

Teams trading away top starters in July of a lost season don't need immediate contributors though, right? There are going to be expiring pitchers, they are going to be expensive, we are very, very good offensively (and very locked in to that group, contract wise), and we are very much lacking starting pitching.

Overpay for someone. Hoarding all of Shaw/Ramirez/Rojas/Alcantara because we're scared one of them might, maybe, turn into cheap corner outfield production for another team is not good management of resources. 

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

The SP market is gonna suck again. Very few obvious sellers, and anyone that is doesn't have a guy that's a worthy upgrade. Robbie Ray is OK, but is he that much better than his cousin Colin Rea that you would be willing to give up anything for him? I'm not sure.

[Tryptamine]

If there's a go for it year, this is it with all of Seiya, Happ, Kelly, Shota, Boyd, Taillon, etc. set to leave in FA. Even if we pretend the lockout in 2027 isn't inevitable, you're looking at a 2027 rotation of Steele,Horton(Eventually), Cabrera and some combination of Rea/Assad/etc? Assuming Wiggins is healthy enough to fill a spot is a pretty bad idea right now. I want a young controllable arm instead of a rental like Ryan, Alcantara, etc, but who is out there for the taking? Who has a desperate need for IF because between Rojas/Ramirez/Triantos they've got plenty of value to give. KC? MIN? 

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

The SP market is gonna suck again. Very few obvious sellers, and anyone that is doesn't have a guy that's a worthy upgrade. Robbie Ray is OK, but is he that much better than his cousin Colin Rea that you would be willing to give up anything for him? I'm not sure.

Yeah I'm admittedly running into the same problems. A good amount of names that provide a lot more value in being a slightly above average innings eater during the year than they do in October. A few weeks ago I thought we needed to dip into that well to stabilize the rotation but credit to the front office to stacking pitchers of that type and to those pitchers (Rea especially) for stepping up.

Skubal is almost a meme at this point, but if you're looking for upside you probably do need to explore the injured/rehabbing pitchers market. For better or for worse that's a constantly evolving group. 

You could also revamp the bullpen (for the second time this year) and lean on like, Ben Brown/Justin Steele/Wiggins as multiple inning weapons then supplement from there. But need to do something. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

13 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If there's a go for it year, this is it with all of Seiya, Happ, Kelly, Shota, Boyd, Taillon, etc. set to leave in FA. Even if we pretend the lockout in 2027 isn't inevitable, you're looking at a 2027 rotation of Steele,Horton(Eventually), Cabrera and some combination of Rea/Assad/etc? Assuming Wiggins is healthy enough to fill a spot is a pretty bad idea right now. I want a young controllable arm instead of a rental like Ryan, Alcantara, etc, but who is out there for the taking? Who has a desperate need for IF because between Rojas/Ramirez/Triantos they've got plenty of value to give. KC? MIN? 

Ryan has one more year of control for '27, Alcantara has a relatively cheap $21 million team option for '27. Not young controllable arms but better than a rental.

[Neuby]

Sandy Alacantra

Jose Soriano 

Clay Holmes 

 

Joe Ryans arm is about to fall off . 

SP market is going to be rough again in July

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

4 minutes ago, Neuby said:

Joe Ryans arm is about to fall off . 

He did get a clean MRI and might not miss a start. So some hope.

[NorthsideAvenger]

What about Freddy Peralta? Free Agent at the end of the year and the obvious ties to Counsell. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

2 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

What about Freddy Peralta? Free Agent at the end of the year and the obvious ties to Counsell. 

Didn't even cross my mind. That's interesting.

[Tryptamine]

4 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

What about Freddy Peralta? Free Agent at the end of the year and the obvious ties to Counsell. 

The problem is what do the Mets need from the Cubs. I'm sure they'd love a 2B, but they're stuck with Semien for a long time. Bo Bichette is locked in at 3B and Lindor is locked in at SS. Who are the Cubs going to give up?

[muntjack]

I would try to make the pitching version of the Michael Busch deal.   Instead of negotiating with a "seller" at the deadline, trade from our surplus for an arm that's on the cusp.  Swapping Shaw or Ramirez for an SP like Macdougal or Snelling.

[Bertz]

I think with the number of high profile teams that have flopped this season will help the market this summer.  Part of the problem last TDL is that every bad team except the Dbacks and Twins was a team that had been bad for a while and had little to offer.  Some will right the ship but having some combo of the Phillies/Mets/Bosox/Jays with rosters that have not yet been picked over should make it less of a seller's market

At the same time I think it's really hard to deal anyone with 1.5 years of control.  How do you value a Gore or an Alcantara or a healthy Joe Ryan when there's a small chance that next season is impacted by the CBA fight?  How do you align on the odds that there's a shortened or even fully banged season?  I assume it's less of an issue for someone with 2.5+ but probably still somewhat relevant.

I could see a lot of directions.  I could see some tepid rental like a Robbie Ray I could see a balls out long term move like a Hunter Brown.  I'd doubt they do a big rental like Freddy Peralta?  But I'm going to largely attempt to go into this deadline with specific expectations.

 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

32 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

The problem is what do the Mets need from the Cubs. I'm sure they'd love a 2B, but they're stuck with Semien for a long time. Bo Bichette is locked in at 3B and Lindor is locked in at SS. Who are the Cubs going to give up?

I know they’re stuck with him through 2028, but are they really going to keep trotting Semien out there if he continues to be replacement level? If anyone can afford to bench/cut someone with 2/$50 left on his deal, it’s the Mets, right? All the better if they’re able to absorb the hit by replacing him with cheap production from someone like Ramirez.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Ray for Murray?

[Tryptamine]

16 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Ray for Murray?

I don't think that gets you that close. My guess is he'd be a secondary piece in a deal.

[We Got The Whole 9]

9 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I don't think that gets you that close. My guess is he'd be a secondary piece in a deal.

The Cubs should probably aim higher. Maybe if he were still the 30% K guy. This year he's actually barely above average. And he gives up a horsefeathers ton of flyballs.

[Tryptamine]

24 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

The Cubs should probably aim higher. Maybe if he were still the 30% K guy. This year he's actually barely above average. And he gives up a horsefeathers ton of flyballs.

I'd agree. He's not an upgrade over any of Cabrera, Shota, Boyd and he wont be over Steele if they get him back. The whole point of getting another starter is someone you'll actually use in playoff games.

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'd agree. He's not an upgrade over any of Cabrera, Shota, Boyd and he wont be over Steele if they get him back. The whole point of getting another starter is someone you'll actually use in playoff games.

I think Ray is just as good as any of the top 3 Cubs starters. He would be a nice addition because, IMO, he is better than Rea and Tailon. He would be used in the playoff rotation as well as get 8-10 starts in the last 2 months.
Sure, I would like someone better. Would love to get Peralta. But I think they guy they get is not going to be a sure TOR starter. And, if Steele actually comes back healthy and effective, which is a huge IF, they don’t need to add a starter. I only chose Ray because I feel he is a decent #2/3 starter who might not cost crazy prospects because it is his last year. I don’t see them doing multiple higher end prospects for a pitcher this TDL. 

Edited 5 hours ago by Rcal10

[mk49]

I agree Ray is one of the better options.  He's probably better than Cabrera and Boyd right now, but not better than Shota, at least for now.  If Steele doesn't look good, I think the Cubs will try Ben Brown as a SP later in the season and the playoffs, if Ben keeps pitching well.  Right now, Ben is looking better than Cabrera and Boyd.  Then, use Assad and Steele for long relief.  

That said, somebody might get hurt before the TDL, so it's very hard to predict.  Like Rcal10 said, way too early, but it's fun to talk about.

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I agree Ray is one of the better options.  He's probably better than Cabrera and Boyd right now, but not better than Shota, at least for now.  If Steele doesn't look good, I think the Cubs will try Ben Brown as a SP later in the season and the playoffs, if Ben keeps pitching well.  Right now, Ben is looking better than Cabrera and Boyd.  Then, use Assad and Steele for long relief.  

That said, somebody might get hurt before the TDL, so it's very hard to predict.  Like Rcal10 said, way too early, but it's fun to talk about.

I just hope, if they do need a starting pitcher at the deadline, they pull the trigger this year. It can be for a rental that may cost them less, or a controlled guy who might hurt the system a bit. But they will need a few starters next year anyway. 
I don’t want to see a “project guy” like Soroka, this year. 

[squally1313]

Robbie Ray is the most boring pickup in the world but, given recent news, go get him now I guess. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Robbie Ray is the most boring pickup in the world but, given recent news, go get him now I guess. 

Less boring than Soroka😬 Wonder what it would cost now? A positive for SF is they lose more of his salary then they do if they keep him another 2 months. If they are being realistic they are not going anywhere. Why not deal him now if the Cubs give them what they want. Most likely Boston isn’t going anywhere either. If Gray looks good, is he an option? Again, earlier the better. I think there isn’t anyone really exciting they can get without a huge amount of assets leaving the team. And I don’t think they do that. I am looking for someone not as exciting as Peralta but more exciting than Soroka.