Cubs (Martin) vs Phillies (Nola): 4/14/26, 5:40pm

[Post Count Padder]

I was at the game yesterday. Got a foul ball in batting practice off Mo Baller's bat. It was all downhill from there. 

[Jason Ross]

31 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Excellent? Years? Come on, man. We've got FIPs of 3.50, 4.33, 3.74, 4.26, 2.60, and corresponding fWARs of 0.6, -0.1, 0.6, 0.1, 1.5 from 2021 to 2025 (innings pitched between 61 and 67). He's fine. He was 19th in baseball last year, 73rd since 2021, 54th since 2023. We were banking on 2025, so far no such luck.

Which he hasn't been since August 2024. This should not be a guy we're relying on as a key piece!

Yes, and it was a bad bullpen for a team with playoff aspirations! 19th in fWAR, 16th in FIP. We point to Hottovy and Zombro all the time, how is it productive to make them start from scratch every year?

Should we maybe not be clamoring for the Brad Kellers of the world? Sure. But it's an indictment of the organization that we're reduced to wishcasting for the few 36 year olds that actually worked out. Devin Williams, Raisel Iglesias, and Robert Suarez have a total of zero earned runs this year. They're all making $15m a year, give or take. We're paying Maton, Harvey, Thielbar, and Milner $21.5m, none of which are considered anywhere close to elite, because apparently the FO decided they haven't generated a single pitcher capable of pitching the 6th or 7th inning. Which is A. a failure of development, and B. about to be tested because multiple of the guys in the above group, all on the backside of their career, have either gotten hurt or lost their mechanics. 

Using FIP and fWAR (RP fWAR is fractional and so tiny) to explain Phil Maton is missing the forest for the trees, IMO. Since Houston worked with Maton, he has a 3.33 ERA, struck out 27% of hitters, has a 43% GB%, and has beaten his FIP every single year. He induces a very high amount of chase and soft contact; he's a classic FIP beating profile which is why I'm just not interested in that aspect of his game. If we move the goalposts to 2023, he's got a 3.15 ERA, and a 3.39 FIP over that span. That puts him right in line with Robert Surez, Tyler Rogers, Kenley Jansen and Andrew Kittredge. I'll stick by my overall assessment using whatever adjective you'd like; but he's someone any contending team would be glad to have in a high-leverage role and has been for 3 or 4 years. 

On the last part: I think that's a pretty unfair assessment of my post. I can't hit every single point every single diatribe, but none of that was saying "it's okay that the team ignores Devin Williams when he's available". So we are very crystal clear: 

1. The way the Cubs build a bullpen, by generally going with one-off contracts is a modern and fine way of building the majority of your bullpen. Being mad that the Cubs, and almost every other MLB franchise out there right now does that, is missing modern trends.
2. Getting upset that we sign "retreads" while also saying we should have signed Drew Pomeranz feels quite contradictory as Drew Pomeranz was a player we literally bought off of Seattle, hadn't really pitched since before Covid and is now 37. 
3. It'd be sure nice if the Chicago Cubs signed a Devin Williams to supplement their bullpen, too! 

I don't think any of those things are mutually exclusive. My response was only really about parts 1 and 2. But part 3 is also real and I don't want to be characterized like I'm not onboard with that, too. 

[Stratos]

50 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Another pitcher to IL, Hollowell in Iowa was placed on IL yesterday. 

What did they do with their pitchers over the winter 🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄

 

Spring training and April are statistically the times where the most pitcher injuries occur as guys ramp up workload and pitch counts.

Maybe they should add a rule where teams can carry an extra pitcher or 2 in March/ April

Edited Tuesday at 09:01 PM by Stratos

[Jason Ross]

And just to add context, since 2023, one of these is Robert Suarez, and the other is Phil Maton:

Pitcher 1: 3.15 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 27.3 K%, 9.1 BB%, 2.3 fWAR
Pitcher 2: 3.10 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 24.8 K%, 6.6 BB%, 2.8 fWAR

It's really horsefeathers close. We can add a fourth year and we can really widen that gap on the fWAR as Suarez was great in 2022 and Maton had negative fWAR. But the pitcher Maton was in 2022 doesn't really resemble the pitcher Maton is now (and frankly, 2022 was Suarez' best career year with numbers way off from the other 3 years of K's so I'm not sure 2022 Suarez resembles current Suarez, either). He changed up his pitch mix pretty heavily in 2023 and added his cutter then, which has been a great pitch for him, so while it probably is a bit unfair to Saurez to drop 2022 from the discussion, it's probably not a reflection of the two currently because Maton just isn't that guy any more.

[CUBDOM4life]

[We Got The Whole 9]

Pete would have to get better results if he just never swing the bat

[squally1313]

18 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

If we move the goalposts to 2023, he's got a 3.15 ERA, and a 3.39 FIP over that span. That puts him right in line with Robert Surez, Tyler Rogers, Kenley Jansen and Andrew Kittredge. I'll stick by my overall assessment using whatever adjective you'd like; but he's someone any contending team would be glad to have in a high-leverage role and has been for 3 or 4 years. 

Sure. If we use your goalposts, that makes him the 57th best relief pitcher by ERA and 74th best pitcher by FIP (FG shows 3.55, whatever) out of 195 qualified relievers over that stretch. None of that is 'excellent' and nothing besides 2025 shows an 'excellent' single year performer. He's a fine reliever, he's absolutely nothing special. 

20 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

1. The way the Cubs build a bullpen, by generally going with one-off contracts is a modern and fine way of building the majority of your bullpen. Being mad that the Cubs, and almost every other MLB franchise out there right now does that, is missing modern trends.
2. Getting upset that we sign "retreads" while also saying we should have signed Drew Pomeranz feels quite contradictory as Drew Pomeranz was a player we literally bought off of Seattle, hadn't really pitched since before Covid and is now 37. 

In reverse order

1. I never said anything about Drew Pomeranz

2. Is this true? We went into the season with Palencia, Brown, and 6 guys we signed in the offseason. The Brewers have Koenig, Megill, Uribe, Ashby, Anderson, and Hall that have been there since at least 2024. The Braves have had Iglesian since 2022 (you could it's the same situation as Thielbar, my counter would be that Iglesias is much, much better than Thielbar), Lee since 2021, Bummer since 2024, Payamps they picked up in September, Harris has been there since 2022. The Mets turned over most of their spots but also actually signed a good pitcher. The Phillies ponied up for Duran, Alvarado and Kerkering have been there forever. The Dodgers, similar situation with Diaz/Scott and then Vesia/Treinen. Not a single pitcher in the Padres bullpen was signed or traded for in this past offseason. We're an outlier in our inability to produce cost controlled innings or our willingness to sign top end talent. I get that you can throw a lot of bullpen results into the black box of 'bullpens are weird, small sample size'. I'm with you on that. But I don't think you can spin the approach is something worth being proud of. 

[Jason Ross]

Also, we might just be cursed right now:

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Wow. I dont believe I've ever seen a vent just fall out of a wall. What the hell. 

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Sure. If we use your goalposts, that makes him the 57th best relief pitcher by ERA and 74th best pitcher by FIP (FG shows 3.55, whatever) out of 195 qualified relievers over that stretch. None of that is 'excellent' and nothing besides 2025 shows an 'excellent' single year performer. He's a fine reliever, he's absolutely nothing special. 

In reverse order

1. I never said anything about Drew Pomeranz

2. Is this true? We went into the season with Palencia, Brown, and 6 guys we signed in the offseason. The Brewers have Koenig, Megill, Uribe, Ashby, Anderson, and Hall that have been there since at least 2024. The Braves have had Iglesian since 2022 (you could it's the same situation as Thielbar, my counter would be that Iglesias is much, much better than Thielbar), Lee since 2021, Bummer since 2024, Payamps they picked up in September, Harris has been there since 2022. The Mets turned over most of their spots but also actually signed a good pitcher. The Phillies ponied up for Duran, Alvarado and Kerkering have been there forever. The Dodgers, similar situation with Diaz/Scott and then Vesia/Treinen. Not a single pitcher in the Padres bullpen was signed or traded for in this past offseason. We're an outlier in our inability to produce cost controlled innings or our willingness to sign top end talent. I get that you can throw a lot of bullpen results into the black box of 'bullpens are weird, small sample size'. I'm with you on that. But I don't think you can spin the approach is something worth being proud of. 

Who's said anything about being proud of it? It's just kind of the reality of bullpens and hearing people whine that we didn't sign Brad Keller (who was a retread and has an ERA over 5 right now) and Drew Pomeranz (who was a retread and has an ERA over 5 right now) is just whining to whine a bit. I never said you said anything about Drew, though. I was trying to explain my post and then add in an agreement on Devin Williams so we all knew that I wasn't trying to say Phil Maton is an adequate replacement for them, only that I think Phil Maton is a good reliever (or whatever adjective you'd prefer me to use, I don't like that game of what we want to call someone).

I'd sure love to have the Brewers bullpen! So we don't disagree that the Cubs development has been lackluster there. But a good reminder too: development takes a long time and the Cubs' current pitching structure and organization has been basically redone over the last 365 days with the intro of Zombro. The Cubs did get Palencia on track last year, and it looks like the early returns on Ben Brown are promising. Riley Martin might be a thing too, but we have a ways to go. Zombro can't magic-wand away years of mediocre development, and this will be the first draft he's truly involved in, so where we go from here will hopefully be up in that aspect. Add in how the Cubs worked some wonders with Brad Keller and Drew Pomeranz and even were able to help Kittredge really go super-sayin for a few months with some tweaks and there's some positive momentum. We're not there yet, and probably not even "on the way" but it's a start.

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'd sure love to have the Brewers bullpen! So we don't disagree that the Cubs development has been lackluster there. But a good reminder too: development takes a long time and the Cubs' current pitching structure and organization has been basically redone over the last 365 days with the intro of Zombro. The Cubs did get Palencia on track last year, and it looks like the early returns on Ben Brown are promising. Riley Martin might be a thing too, but we have a ways to go. Zombro can't magic-wand away years of mediocre development, and this will be the first draft he's truly involved in, so where we go from here will hopefully be up in that aspect. Add in how the Cubs worked some wonders with Brad Keller and Drew Pomeranz and even were able to help Kittredge really go super-sayin for a few months with some tweaks and there's some positive momentum. We're not there yet, and probably not even "on the way" but it's a start

If the cubs did a complete overhaul of their pitching development in the last year, then that’s a pretty damning indictment of Tommy hottovy, who has been with the organization since 2014 and been the pitching coach since 2018. Or, if we’re exempting him because he’s just the cubs major league guy (cubs are 12th in ERA, 21st in FIP, 25th in fWAR for relievers since 2019), then it falls on hoyer to have it apparently broken until last year. 
 

if the cubs secret sauce is that we can take a group of pitchers projected to be bad, and spend the first two months of the year watching them be bad just so they can be somewhat above average later on in the year and just be mediocre on the whole…that’s probably an argument against making the development guys start over every year, why can’t they do that with the $600k AAA guys, and it’s still, on the whole, a poorly run part of the organization that could not be more in ‘Win Now’ mode. 

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

If the cubs did a complete overhaul of their pitching development in the last year, then that’s a pretty damning indictment of Tommy hottovy, who has been with the organization since 2014 and been the pitching coach since 2018. Or, if we’re exempting him because he’s just the cubs major league guy (cubs are 12th in ERA, 21st in FIP, 25th in fWAR for relievers since 2019), then it falls on hoyer to have it apparently broken until last year. 
 

if the cubs secret sauce is that we can take a group of pitchers projected to be bad, and spend the first two months of the year watching them be bad just so they can be somewhat above average later on in the year and just be mediocre on the whole…that’s probably an argument against making the development guys start over every year, why can’t they do that with the $600k AAA guys, and it’s still, on the whole, a poorly run part of the organization that could not be more in ‘Win Now’ mode. 

Well Tommy can't work with MLB arms and Double A at the same time, you know? He's the MLB pitching coach but isn't the Cubs organizational pitching strategy guy. Prior to Tyler Zombro, that was Craig Breslow who is now in Boston as their VP of Ops. This the changeover in the last 365. They have different jobs. And this year, Kantrovitz will continue to run the draft but Zombro will have a lot of influence this year. Last year he had none. Hottovy isn't really involved in that aspect. 

So the hope is that with a different structure and teaching and identification, that Zombro will develop them better in the minors and give Hottovy more to work with at the MLB level. 

It's like blaming Craig Counsell for the development of prospects on Knoxville. They just have different jobs. 

[cl smooth]

is trying not to suck that difficult for this lot?

[chibears55]

54 minutes ago, CUBDOM4life said:

2-5 need to do some damage tonight 

[The_Achiever]

51 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Wow. I dont believe I've ever seen a vent just fall out of a wall. What the hell. 

Ricketty Construction Co. 😕

I knew those bathrooms weren't ADA compliant as well!  

[chibears55]

If Martin can get them 3 good innings that would be big, then Rea for 4

[JHBulls]

Ethan Roberts is on the IL because something “sliced his…. finger”. I was a bit worried there for a moment. 

[chopsx9]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Wow. I dont believe I've ever seen a vent just fall out of a wall. What the hell. 

That's the excuse you get when you use free AI. 

[Derwood]

More RISP woes

[PeanutPunch33]

Lol 

[chibears55]

Of course...

 

[Geographyhater8888]

Of course they hit a horsefeathers 3 run homer with their guys on while white we hit into a double play. horsefeathers the Phillies.

Edited Tuesday at 11:12 PM by Geographyhater8888

[JHBulls]

Of course. A no doubter that looked like it was skied so high that it was not going to get out of the infield. 

Edited Tuesday at 11:12 PM by JHBulls

[We Got The Whole 9]

You're not supposed to do that with RHB Colin 😭

[chopsx9]

Should've left the opener in.