Hoyer and Hawkins Bad Judgment

[Banks-Williams]

Just to show you how poor Hawkins and Hoyer are at their jobs, look at this:

Bregman:

Cost: $175m/5 = $35,000,000/year

2025 AB = 434, 2B = 28, SB = 1

effective 2B = 2B + SB = 29

Shaw:

cost: $760k 2025, pre-arb 2026

2025 AB = 393, 2B = 21, SB = 17

effective 2B = 38; 2B adjusted for more Bregman ABs = 42.

If Shaw had as many ABs as Bregman’s, he’d have ~42 effective 2B.  That’s 45% more than Bregman in one season. Yet Hoyer and Hawkins pay > 40x more for Bregman, and Bregman is not a better defensive 3rd baseman than Shaw.

If I owned the Cubs, both these guys would be relieved in short order.

Edited February 21 by Banks-Williams
Verb/noun correction re plural v singular

[We Got The Whole 9]

Quite a mountain you have on that island of yours.

Edited February 21 by We Got The Whole 9

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

This is some Billy Madison-level stuff right here.

[Post Count Padder]

Every time one of these threads comes up.

[NorthsideAvenger]

2 hours ago, Banks-Williams said:

Just to show you how poor Hawkins and Hoyer are at their jobs, look at this:

Bregman:

Cost: $175m/5 = $35,000,000/year

2025 AB = 434, 2B = 28, SB = 1

effective 2B = 2B + SB = 29

Shaw:

cost: $760k 2025, pre-arb 2026

2025 AB = 393, 2B = 21, SB = 17

effective 2B = 38; 2B adjusted for more Bregman ABs = 42.

If Shaw had as many ABs as Bregman’s, he’d have ~42 effective 2B.  That’s 45% more than Bregman in one season. Yet Hoyer and Hawkins pay > 40x more for Bregman, and Bregman is not a better defensive 3rd baseman than Shaw.

If I owned the Cubs, both these guys would be relieved in short order.

[Derwood]

We get it, Alex Bregman banged your girlfriend

[javy knows my name]

This guy I don't like has an EFV2B of -4, let's trade him or stone him or whatever 

[imb]

a walk/single+a sb does not equal a double. You ever see someone knock a runner in with a stolen base?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

13 minutes ago, imb said:

a walk/single+a sb does not equal a double. You ever see someone knock a runner in with a stolen base?

[cl smooth]

what kind of horsefeathers is this

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, cl smooth said:

what kind of horsefeathers is this

🤷 he has been doing this in two different threads. I am tired of trying to talk sense into him. You guys have at it. I will probably end up putting him on my ignore list rather than responding to him any longer. His posts add nothing and arguing with him isn’t going to help. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Seriously though, I don't think I've ever seen a team so butthurt over a player only staying for one year as I have seen from the Red Sox. What gives? There are seriously hurt feelings that he didnt go back to Boston. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

48 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Seriously though, I don't think I've ever seen a team so butthurt over a player only staying for one year as I have seen from the Red Sox. What gives? There are seriously hurt feelings that he didnt go back to Boston. 

Signing Bregman is what led to the Devers fiasco. And now instead of keeping Bregman they have Caleb Durbin.

[Banks-Williams]

9 hours ago, imb said:

a walk/single+a sb does not equal a double. You ever see someone knock a runner in with a stolen base?

I never said it was the same as a double. That is why is it called an “effective” double.   And yes, I have seen a base stealer bring the guy on second and/or third home many times.

A base stealer does many beneficial things outside of a true double, like make the pitcher uneasy, which benefits the batter and the base runners.  The pitcher is more likely to make a mistake when worrying about the guy on first, thereby allowing a home run or hit off the wall or in the gap.  Further, the base stealer has the ability to get the pitcher, the catcher, and the fielders to make errors, enabling the base runners to advance and score in that manner.  In other words, base stealers make things happen, and they do create runs.  And most importantly, they make the game more exciting for the fans.

Edited February 22 by Banks-Williams
Missing word

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Banks-Williams said:

I never said it was the same as a double. That is why is it called an “effective” double.   And yes, I have seen a base stealer bring the guy on second and/or third home many times.

A base stealer does many beneficial things outside of a true double, like make the pitcher uneasy, which benefits the batter and the base runners.  The pitcher is more likely to make a mistake when worrying about the guy on first, thereby allowing a home run or hit off the wall or in the gap.  Further, the base stealer has the ability to get the pitcher, the catcher, and the fielders to make errors, enabling the base runners to advance and score in that manner.  In other words, base stealers make things happen, and they do create runs.  And most importantly, they make the game more exciting for the fans.

With all due respect, Sabermetrics are complicated enough. It took me a while to accept and apply fancy stats like WRC+, WOBA and FIP. Effective 2B (EFV28) is information overload. Let’s pump the breaks for now. 

Edited February 22 by Geographyhater8888

[Banks-Williams]

One thing I should also have mentioned here is “lost opportunity cost”.   When you put $175M into single person who isn’t really needed because your present guy is doing well  — and because he’s young and will likely outperform in the coming years —  you don’t have the means to pay for other players who are in fact needed.  

I just demonstrated that Bregman is not much better, if he is any better at all, than Shaw.  Bregman is well behind Shaw in delivering “Effective Doubles”.   And in other categories he isn’t much better.  He certainly is not a better fielder, perhaps on par now, but even if so, Bregman is aging while Shaw is ripening.  So … there was no need to blow $175M on a 3rd baseman.

The Cubs needed two things for 2026: (1) a great utility player — a guy who could play most days at most positions to keep the team rested in the hot days of July and August.  They didn’t get Castro until ~August 1 last year, after the Cubs began their slide in the summer heat.  Counsell was playing his regulars too often.  In short, Hoyer and Hawkins made Counsell do a 1969 Durocher.  They needed someone like Davey Lopes.  Enter Brendan Donovan.

They also needed (2) to fill the bullpen.  They could have kept Keller but evidently didn’t have the funds.  They also could have purchased a couple more reliable guys like Keller.  

Instead of getting Donovan and three good relievers, they spent $175M on one guy who wasn’t even needed.  And they’ve now got Counsell teaching their best defensive 3rd baseman how to play RF  

That is why I say, if Hoyer and Hawkins were managing my money like that, they’d both be gone.

I don’t think the Cubs will win the division this year.  They put too much money into ineffectual players like Bregman and Imanaga.  Now they’re lacking in relief in the bullpen and, once again, in the field (come July and August).  The July and August heat does take its toll on even the best players.

 

[BigbadB]

48 minutes ago, Banks-Williams said:

I never said it was the same as a double. That is why is it called an “effective” double.   And yes, I have seen a base stealer bring the guy on second and/or third home many times.

A base stealer does many beneficial things outside of a true double, like make the pitcher uneasy, which benefits the batter and the base runners.  The pitcher is more likely to make a mistake when worrying about the guy on first, thereby allowing a home run or hit off the wall or in the gap.  Further, the base stealer has the ability to get the pitcher, the catcher, and the fielders to make errors, enabling the base runners to advance and score in that manner.  In other words, base stealers make things happen, and they do create runs.  And most importantly, they make the game more exciting for the fans.

The most significant problem I see with your theory/theorem is Bregman isn't really replacing Shaw. Shaw is still here. 

[CubinNY]

We need to treat this one like the old Soriano thread with the photoshopped pictures.

Another one of the greatest threads in NSB(B) history. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Banks-Williams said:

I never said it was the same as a double. That is why is it called an “effective” double.   And yes, I have seen a base stealer bring the guy on second and/or third home many times.

A base stealer does many beneficial things outside of a true double, like make the pitcher uneasy, which benefits the batter and the base runners.  The pitcher is more likely to make a mistake when worrying about the guy on first, thereby allowing a home run or hit off the wall or in the gap.  Further, the base stealer has the ability to get the pitcher, the catcher, and the fielders to make errors, enabling the base runners to advance and score in that manner.  In other words, base stealers make things happen, and they do create runs.  And most importantly, they make the game more exciting for the fans.

[Geographyhater8888]

For now on walks are effective singles. 

[Geographyhater8888]

14 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

🤷 he has been doing this in two different threads. I am tired of trying to talk sense into him. You guys have at it. I will probably end up putting him on my ignore list rather than responding to him any longer. His posts add nothing and arguing with him isn’t going to help. 

This guy’s awesome. Unlike Cubs dude this guy even invented his own stat whereas cubs dude was all talk no action when it came to being an intellectual heavyweight. Fangraphs will add a fourth run value category for EFV2B if they catch wind of this. 

Edited February 22 by Geographyhater8888

[Derwood]

I'm just waiting to hear that Shaw is a better bunter

[Rcal10]

This ridiculous narrative on Bregman not being very good all comes from the argument that he cheated and he was only good when he cheated. Never mind that during the time it is suspected that the Astros cheated by signaling batter on what pitch was coming when they were at home, Bregman had better road numbers. Honestly, I hope he is right and Shaw is as good as Bregman. That would mean Shaw would have a great career. I am fine with that. 

[javy knows my name]

21 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

This guy’s awesome. Unlike Cubs dude this guy even invented his own stat whereas cubs dude was all talk no action when it came to being an intellectual heavyweight. Fangraphs will add a fourth run category for EFV2B if they catch wind of this. 

Stole my joke twice and didn't credit me, quote, or like the post

[Derwood]

But which player is better at "safe at first on a fielder's choice, takes second on a walk, takes third on a fly out, scores on a wild pitch" (i.e. the "Effective Homerun")?