Pitchers and catchers are reporting? It's the Spring Training Thread!

[chibears55]

Phillies released Nick Castellanos

I wouldn't mind adding him as DH at a reasonable cost, allow Mo to stay down and work on catching. 

 

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Phillies released Nick Castellanos

I wouldn't mind adding him as DH at a reasonable cost, allow Mo to stay down and work on catching. 

 

Castellanos is terrible. He had a 90 wRC+ last year and over his last 2,500 PA's is at a 100 wRC+. League DH last year were a 115 wRC+.

[Bertz]

Cubs fans will suggest literally anything to avoid giving a job to a kid

[Post Count Padder]

36 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Phillies released Nick Castellanos

I wouldn't mind adding him as DH at a reasonable cost, allow Mo to stay down and work on catching. 

 

He's cooked. He hit well here but that's awhile ago now. There's a good chance Mo puts up a higher OPS and WAR this year.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Cubs fans will suggest literally anything to avoid giving a job to a kid

Eh. Until told otherwise he has zero defensive value on the 2026 Cubs team, and besides Steamer there's not a single projection system that has him over a 105 wRC. Castellanos is washed, but it can't be hard to find or improve on that performance.

Nathaniel Lowe and his 115 wRC against RHP in the last two years costs only money. If you still want to keep Ballesteros up in the majors to pick up the soft skills, then you dump the Austin guy and let Shaw take the short side of the DH platoon.

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Eh. Until told otherwise he has zero defensive value on the 2026 Cubs team, and besides Steamer there's not a single projection system that has him over a 105 wRC. Castellanos is washed, but it can't be hard to find or improve on that performance.

Nathaniel Lowe and his 115 wRC against RHP in the last two years costs only money. If you still want to keep Ballesteros up in the majors to pick up the soft skills, then you dump the Austin guy and let Shaw take the short side of the DH platoon.

To be fair, most of the projections for all top-prospects are really low. Sal Stewart is hovering around 105-110 range in most, Samuel Basallo is around the same spot as Ballesteros, and Carson Benge is well below. Projection systems are a little tricky when it comes to understanding MiLB to MLB and usually are on the very conservative side. You're going to find this most of the time. 

I'm pretty tepid on projection systems for rookies. Not to say we shouldn't use them, but that they're always kind of low on 'em. 

[Bertz]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Eh. Until told otherwise he has zero defensive value on the 2026 Cubs team, and besides Steamer there's not a single projection system that has him over a 105 wRC. Castellanos is washed, but it can't be hard to find or improve on that performance.

Nathaniel Lowe and his 115 wRC against RHP in the last two years costs only money. If you still want to keep Ballesteros up in the majors to pick up the soft skills, then you dump the Austin guy and let Shaw take the short side of the DH platoon.

I just don't really see the point?  Like why bother?  For 5 points of wRC+?

And if you want to lean really heavily on projections it's worth noting they really like Austin's  bat and they don't think Mo provides zero defensive value.

[KCCub]

I get wanting to have a near playoff ready roster day 1, but IMO there's more value in giving Mo runway at DH vs blocking him with someone who at most is going to be marginally better. If at the TDL he has a 115 wRC+, great, you don't need a LH hitting DH. If he struggles, make a move for a platoon bat (they're a dime a dozen) and send Mo down to work on the what they've learned about him facing big league pitching.

Edited February 12 by KCCub

[Hot Sauce]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

Phillies released Nick Castellanos

I wouldn't mind adding him as DH at a reasonable cost, allow Mo to stay down and work on catching. 

 

Hard pass. 

[Bull]

13 minutes ago, KCCub said:

I get wanting to have a near playoff ready roster day 1, but IMO there's more value in giving Mo runway at DH vs blocking him with someone who at most is going to be marginally better. If at the TDL he has a 115 wRC+, great, you don't need a LH hitting DH. If he struggles, make a move for a platoon bat (they're a dime a dozen) and send Mo down to work on the what they've learned about him facing big league pitching.

Even if Mo is a complete bust by May, then Shaw is your 9th bat, giving everyone a day off to DH. 

Seiya DH's, Happ DHs, Swanson DHs, Bregman, Kelly.  Repeat. Anyone over 30.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

To be fair, most of the projections for all top-prospects are really low. Sal Stewart is hovering around 105-110 range in most, Samuel Basallo is around the same spot as Ballesteros, and Carson Benge is well below. Projection systems are a little tricky when it comes to understanding MiLB to MLB and usually are on the very conservative side. You're going to find this most of the time. 

I'm pretty tepid on projection systems for rookies. Not to say we shouldn't use them, but that they're always kind of low on 'em. 

Weren't we all generally in agreement like, last season that there almost inevitably will be a period of rough adjustment for even the best hitting prospects? Couldn't that be baked into these projections (in recent history there's been a large dropoff between AAA performance and initial MLB performance)?

 

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I just don't really see the point?  Like why bother?  For 5 points of wRC+?

And if you want to lean really heavily on projections it's worth noting they really like Austin's  bat and they don't think Mo provides zero defensive value.

I wouldn't call it leaning heavily on projections, just....using them. Zips has him generating defensive value but that presumably comes from allocating him innings behind the plate, and how many of those is he going to get in a world with Amaya and Kelly. The ZIPS DC gives him the same offensive output and turns him into a full time DH and...he's worth 0.4 fWAR in 282 PAs. If Amaya or Kelly gets hurt, then there's a separate argument on whether Ballesteros is best prepared to fill in as the second catcher, getting 5 starts a week in Iowa or working with the Cubs coaches.

But just going with a 100-105 wRC guy for the spot with a league average of 110 seems like a missed opportunity now that we're past the first threshold. Especially if you, like me, think Ballesteros' best path to ultimate value (ie being a major league viable catcher) comes from getting as many game reps as possible. I think we have enough of a cushion to let it all play out and reassess in June. But we have a really solid catching tandem as is and we have a high floor util guy theoretically capable of playing everywhere in the field. We (probably) don't have a guy on the bench who projects to be above average at hitting RHPs. That seems fixable. 

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Weren't we all generally in agreement like, last season that there almost inevitably will be a period of rough adjustment for even the best hitting prospects? Couldn't that be baked into these projections (in recent history there's been a large dropoff between AAA performance and initial MLB performance)?

 

I wouldn't call it leaning heavily on projections, just....using them. Zips has him generating defensive value but that presumably comes from allocating him innings behind the plate, and how many of those is he going to get in a world with Amaya and Kelly. The ZIPS DC gives him the same offensive output and turns him into a full time DH and...he's worth 0.4 fWAR in 282 PAs. If Amaya or Kelly gets hurt, then there's a separate argument on whether Ballesteros is best prepared to fill in as the second catcher, getting 5 starts a week in Iowa or working with the Cubs coaches.

But just going with a 100-105 wRC guy for the spot with a league average of 110 seems like a missed opportunity now that we're past the first threshold. Especially if you, like me, think Ballesteros' best path to ultimate value (ie being a major league viable catcher) comes from getting as many game reps as possible. I think we have enough of a cushion to let it all play out and reassess in June. But we have a really solid catching tandem as is and we have a high floor util guy theoretically capable of playing everywhere in the field. We (probably) don't have a guy on the bench who projects to be above average at hitting RHPs. That seems fixable. 

Each of the last three years we've gotten 30+ games at catcher from guys who weren't one of our top two catchers heading into the season (Amaya in '23, Nido/Bethancourt in '24, McGuire last year).  Amaya especially is made of glass, I don't think we should write off Mo getting some run at catcher. 

He of course could just hang out at Iowa until the IL trip that opens up that playing time, but A) is it really possible for him to radically change our defensive evaluation on him between now and like July and B) to your point of growing pains we're just kicking the can on getting those out of the way.

I just don't see the point of blocking the kids for low margin upgrades.  Especially at DH, where we're not boned if Mo faceplants.  Austin projects really well, Long purely offensively is probably a bit better than Mo (at least in the short term), or we could of course just rotate guys through it as a rest spot.  And of course I think KC's got a great point that DH is about as easy of a spot to fill at the deadline as you could ask for.

[Jason Ross]

25 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Weren't we all generally in agreement like, last season that there almost inevitably will be a period of rough adjustment for even the best hitting prospects? Couldn't that be baked into these projections (in recent history there's been a large dropoff between AAA performance and initial MLB performance)?

 

I wouldn't call it leaning heavily on projections, just....using them. Zips has him generating defensive value but that presumably comes from allocating him innings behind the plate, and how many of those is he going to get in a world with Amaya and Kelly. The ZIPS DC gives him the same offensive output and turns him into a full time DH and...he's worth 0.4 fWAR in 282 PAs. If Amaya or Kelly gets hurt, then there's a separate argument on whether Ballesteros is best prepared to fill in as the second catcher, getting 5 starts a week in Iowa or working with the Cubs coaches.

But just going with a 100-105 wRC guy for the spot with a league average of 110 seems like a missed opportunity now that we're past the first threshold. Especially if you, like me, think Ballesteros' best path to ultimate value (ie being a major league viable catcher) comes from getting as many game reps as possible. I think we have enough of a cushion to let it all play out and reassess in June. But we have a really solid catching tandem as is and we have a high floor util guy theoretically capable of playing everywhere in the field. We (probably) don't have a guy on the bench who projects to be above average at hitting RHPs. That seems fixable. 

Most of these projections aren't entirely publicly available, but my guess is that they really aren't baking that in, but trying to equate Triple-A data to MLB, which is just really hard to do. 

Again, not saying they're worthless, but just that they're kind of low on everyone who initially comes up, so Mo being in that 100-105 range isn't super worrisome to me. Just about everyone top prospect is around that 95-110 range regardless. 

[squally1313]

18 minutes ago, Bertz said:

He of course could just hang out at Iowa until the IL trip that opens up that playing time, but A) is it really possible for him to radically change our defensive evaluation on him between now and like July and B) to your point of growing pains we're just kicking the can on getting those out of the way.

I don't think he's going to be a radically different catcher in July regardless, but I do think he'd be a better catcher with 60 Iowa games under his belt vs 60 innings with the Cubs. Get your point on, if my theory is the growing pains are inevitable, the first half of this year is a pretty safe spot for it. 

I just think the only way Ballesteros is a serious contributor to the team is if he's catching at least 50-60 games a year, and I can't really think of a player who stopped in game catching for an extended period of time and then went back to it down the road. 

22 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I just don't see the point of blocking the kids for low margin upgrades.  Especially at DH, where we're not boned if Mo faceplants.  Austin projects really well, Long purely offensively is probably a bit better than Mo (at least in the short term), or we could of course just rotate guys through it as a rest spot.  And of course I think KC's got a great point that DH is about as easy of a spot to fill at the deadline as you could ask for.

The offense as a whole is probably fine regardless. And you're right, Nathanial Lowe isn't going to magically transform anything. I'd just like a (preferrably) lefty bat with a higher floor. Mostly because, and I know we conceptually differ here, I think you're damaging Ballesteros' long term prospects by not giving him maximum catching opps. 

But yeah, fine, reassess in the summer. 

[Rcal10]

I’m less worried about Mo hitting then I am maximizing his value in the future. If, by going to Iowa, he can become a decent catcher and turn into a 60-90 games a year catcher, I wouldn’t mind him being in Iowa and the Cubs get someone else like Lowe to DH, against a right handed pitcher. I know some have suggested he might learn more on the major league roster. If that is true, I am fine with him as the DH. I think he will be a good offensive player. Maybe even a guy who post 115. Whatever they end up doing with him, I hope after this year he catches more often. 

[Dfan25]

If we are going to go by what Sharma and Mooney are saying , Zac Gallen is not happening for the Cubs . 

Edited February 13 by Dfan25

[Post Count Padder]

7 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

If we are going to go by what Sharma and Mooney are saying , Zac Gallen is not happening for the Cubs . 

I didn't hear/read. What did they say?

[ToolDRT]

29 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

If we are going to go by what Sharma and Mooney are saying , Zac Gallen is not happening for the Cubs . 

I think it was always a pipe dream. The fit doesn’t makes sense in that he almost certainly wants an opt out next year. 

[Jason Ross]

34 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

If we are going to go by what Sharma and Mooney are saying , Zac Gallen is not happening for the Cubs . 

Bummer. But fine by me. 

[Dfan25]

33 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

I didn't hear/read. What did they say?

To be fair , they don’t totally rule it out , but they don’t seem too optimistic . The interesting thing is they said it feels like they have 1 more move . If it isn’t Gallen , then who ?

 

 

[Tryptamine]

There is quite literally no other SP out there who makes any sense. None of Littell, Giolito, Scherzer, Montas, etc.  are upgrades over Taillon. I guess Starling Marte is kind of interestingish if you squint, but you could probably get the same thing out of Tauchmann and even then is Tauchmann good enough to warrant mostly giving up on Alcantara?

[Post Count Padder]

Ok yeah thing is if it's not Gallen then no other SP on the market is better than what we have. And between Alcantara, Carlson, McCormick I'm feeling ok about 4th OF. Now if they got a RF/DH type big bat that's another story but I don't know who fits that bill.

[Bertz]

I think there's a decent chance of another bench guy, and a decent chance of more pitching.  Probably won't be a surefire starter if it's not Gallen, but someone you can stash on the IL (Griffin Canning?) or someone you think might take off in relief (Walker Buehler?).

[Tryptamine]

7 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Ok yeah thing is if it's not Gallen then no other SP on the market is better than what we have. And between Alcantara, Carlson, McCormick I'm feeling ok about 4th OF. Now if they got a RF/DH type big bat that's another story but I don't know who fits that bill.

There's not one bat left in FA I'd put as an odds on favorite to put up a higher wRC+ than Mo this year.

[Stratos]

No surprise offseason injury news from the Cubs.  ST off to a good start.