Cubs, Giants Discussing Nico Hoerner Trade

[NorthsideAvenger]

Nico is one heck of a ballplayer and the Cubs would be unwise to trade him. So I really hope they do not trade Nico. 

[Jason Ross]

Cubs connected to Andujar today. Doesn't make sense, unless of course, they trade an infielder. 

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

I can go eff myself because I think its ok for someone to miss a game for a friend's funeral while condemning the views of Kirk and Shaw?  This somehow makes me a bad person lol?  Once again you're unhinged.  All you want to do is hate, so have at it.

Just to go back over the details here, he was shot on September 10th. We had a game that day and I'm like 99% sure he was a late scratch and only pinch hit. Busch was incidentally also not starting that day, but we were going against Sale so going to assume that was a baseball decision.

The Cubs had an off day the next day to go from Atlanta back to Chicago. The (biggest air quotes possible) "memorial" wasn't until 9/21, 11 days after he was shot. As we all saw, it was very much a political rally. The Cubs, as mentioned earlier, had a day off after the shooting, and were also off the day after the memorial. The game that Shaw missed, we lost 1-0. 

I don't know man, these are the furthest things from normal people, but I find it really hard to believe that the only option for genuine friends and family to do funeral type things was a parade of Republican politicians speaking at a stadium 11 days after he died. 

[Post Count Padder]

5 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Cubs connected to Andujar today. Doesn't make sense, unless of course, they trade an infielder. 

Even then, he seems like more of Tyler Austin competition or a safeguard against Ballesteros being bad/injured. He is really a DH who can play 1B and OF (but not well).

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Cubs connected to Andujar today. Doesn't make sense, unless of course, they trade an infielder. 

Could be a bench bat, it would be a nice pickup.  Jed said at the convention he's looking for a bench OF bat to replace Caissie, and values positional versatility on the bench.  Andujar plays all 4 corners and has DH'd.  Alcantara has 1 option left apparently so if Andujar is signed Alcantara could be in Iowa and would be called up with an injury to any of the 4 OF.

If everyone is healthy Andujar can still platoon at DH with Mo vs LHP and is insurance for Mo in case of injury or struggles.

Edited January 19 by Stratos

[Neuby]

https://x.com/TheCUTCH22/status/2013375412793925913?s=20

 

 

I always assumed he was going back to Pittsburgh ........

[Bertz]

Quote

 

With that in mind, it appears the Red Sox are seeking a strong defensive second baseman.

“It’s really important that we improve our defense, particularly our infield defense,” Breslow said. “Any additions that we may make, we’ll be very mindful of the defensive skillset.”

That would seem to rule out Houston’s Isaac Paredes, who has struggled defensively at third base. And while the Cubs have said they plan to hold onto Nico Hoerner, he would be the perfect fit as one of the best second basemen in the league with a solid bat even if he is a free agent at the end of the season. The Cubs, according to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma, would be seeking a big league pitcher with upside in addition to a top prospect, a steep, but perhaps necessary return for a Red Sox team vying to contend in 2026.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Red Sox did make one minor trade to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Suárez. They sent infielder Tristan Gray, whom they’d acquired from Tampa Bay in November, to Minnesota for minor league catcher Nate Baez.

 

 

Whether or it's Nico or Shaw I'm starting to get the sense we're sending an infielder to Boston.

[Rcal10]

39 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

Whether or it's Nico or Shaw I'm starting to get the sense we're sending an infielder to Boston.

Certainly reads like they want Nico. Whether they pay what is necessary or not, is another question. 

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Certainly reads like they want Nico. Whether they pay what is necessary or not, is another question. 

Just for reference sake, Sharma and Mooney suspected that the Cubs would look to get something akin back to what they traded Kyle Tucker for in the event of a Nico Hoerner trade.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Just for reference sake, Sharma and Mooney suspected that the Cubs would look to get something akin back to what they traded Kyle Tucker for in the event of a Nico Hoerner trade.

And, honestly, they should ask for that much. Probably won’t get it so he will stay, but why not ask. Which is why I said it certainly sounds like that is the Boston target but doesn’t mean Hoerner would be traded. What would that look like anyway? Abreu, Early and top 5 minor league prospect in the Boston system? 

[JunkyardWalrus]

9 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Just for reference sake, Sharma and Mooney suspected that the Cubs would look to get something akin back to what they traded Kyle Tucker for in the event of a Nico Hoerner trade.

That’s… crazy.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

And, honestly, they should ask for that much. Probably won’t get it so he will stay, but why not ask. Which is why I said it certainly sounds like that is the Boston target but doesn’t mean Hoerner would be traded. What would that look like anyway? Abreu, Early and top 5 minor league prospect in the Boston system? 

Well, in their defense, they claimed Shaw would bring back even more. So if Boston is in the market for a defensive-minded 2b the Cubs corner the market here. Hoerner would probably be the cheaper option. 

Ultimately, I think I'm becoming more convinced one of them will end up in Boston, but who knows what the Cubs could realistically get back. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

That’s… crazy.

Is it? A reminder, both only had one year of control:
Kyle Tucker's previous 4 years fWAR : 18.9 fWAR
Nico Hoerner's last 4 years fWAR: 17.5 fWAR

Tucker has a 1.5 fWAR advantage, but it's a lot closer than I'm sure many realize. 
 

[JunkyardWalrus]

Sure, but one is a top ten bat in the league, and plays fine defense in RF.

One is a slappy hitting, defense first 2b who should be batting 9th on the team. 

Isn’t offense worth significantly more than defense? (Seems like a disingenuous argument to compare their fWars in such a way to make your point.)

Is there a comp I don’t know about a powerless, fast, impatient defense wiz that is worth what you claim? Was that the asking price for a Jackie Bradley Junior? 

 

 

[Geographyhater8888]

1 minute ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Sure, but one is a top ten bat in the league, and plays fine defense in RF.

One is a slappy hitting, defense first 2b who should be batting 9th on the team. 

Isn’t offense worth significantly more than defense? (Seems like a disingenuous argument to compare their fWars in such a way to make your point.)

Is there a comp I don’t know about a powerless, fast, impatient defense wiz that is worth what you claim? Was that the asking price for a Jackie Bradley Junior? 

 

 

They’re definitely paid more so GMs think so.

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Sure, but one is a top ten bat in the league, and plays fine defense in RF.

One is a slappy hitting, defense first 2b who should be batting 9th on the team. 

Isn’t offense worth significantly more than defense? (Seems like a disingenuous argument to compare their fWars in such a way to make your point.)

Is there a comp I don’t know about a powerless, fast, impatient defense wiz that is worth what you claim? Was that the asking price for a Jackie Bradley Junior? 

 

 

If you are looking for a comp and using Bradley Jr, he isn’t it. His bat was much worse than Hoerner’s. Bradley was a 9 hitter. Nico is not. Yes, the ask is probably too high. But it isn’t as crazy as some would think. Nico is a great 2nd baseman who would also be the best SS on Boston. He is a great base runner as well who can get you 25-30SB. And a good hitter. In Boston I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit 10+ homers too. I have no issue the Cubs asking for that much. I also have no issue with the Red Aox not meeting that price. 

[CubinNY]

Give them Shaw. He'll fit right in in South Boston. It's too bad they already traded Teal to the WS. Get Tolle or Early. 
 

[Jason Ross]

26 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Sure, but one is a top ten bat in the league, and plays fine defense in RF.

One is a slappy hitting, defense first 2b who should be batting 9th on the team. 

Isn’t offense worth significantly more than defense? (Seems like a disingenuous argument to compare their fWars in such a way to make your point.)

Is there a comp I don’t know about a powerless, fast, impatient defense wiz that is worth what you claim? Was that the asking price for a Jackie Bradley Junior? 

 

 

Which is more disingenuous; using adjectives and opinions (such as "slappy hitting") or using a data point that is designed to encompass value? 

The reality is this; fWAR is designed exactly for this discussion. It takes offense, defense, baserunning, positional value and neutralized league data and compiles it into a single value. It takes out opinion of "slappy" and boils it down to a number. It's not a silver bullet, and fractional fWAR is often used in the wrong way but it's also a great way to even the playing field, take personal bias out and see how much value a player generally brings to the field.

The point that I'm making is this: I think many people (and your post is indicative of this) don't understand just how good Nico Hoerner is because they look at his "slappy hitting" and ignore the overall picture. 

On the open market, I don't disagree that teams probably value what Kyle Tucker does in free agency as more valuable. He can transition from RF to 1b to DH and Nico Hoerner probably can't. Hoerner has more value tied to his legs and his glove. But when we're talking a trade for one year of value what Tucker is going to be in four years and what Hoerner will be in four years is immaterial; all that matters is what you're buying in that one year. And the value difference between Hoerner and Tucker in that one year is a lot closer than you're acting.

[Bull]

I've repeatedly gone on record that this s silliness. What am I missing? I have not seen a single credible report that the Cubs are in any way considering a trade of either Shaw of Nico. It makes zero sense as they are clearly going for it this year. They go over the tax every other year if they are in the sweet spot of a win cycle, and this is it. 

I can't see a significant enough overpay of Nico that would warrant the step back on this year, and I can't see anyone giving enough for 6 years of Shaw lose his value to this team. It's just not happening.  

What am I missing?

Edited January 22 by Bull

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Give them Shaw. He'll fit right in in South Boston. It's too bad they already traded Teal to the WS. Get Tolle or Early. 
 

Honestly, this is what I would prefer. Then sign a utility bat. Sure, they lose Nico’s replacement in ‘27, but they gain a starting pitcher for that year. Works for me. Wish Andujar could play some middle infield. That would be a signing that raises the bench bat too, over Shaw. 

[Bertz]

30 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Isn’t offense worth significantly more than defense?

No

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Bull said:

I've repeatedly gone on record that this s silliness. What am I missing? I have not seen a single credible report that the Cubs are in any way considering a trade of either Shaw of Nico. It makes zero sense as they are clearly going for it this year. They go over the tax every other year if they are in the sweet spot of a win cycle, and this is it. 

I can't see a significant enough overpay of Nico that would warrant the step back on this year, and I can't see anyone giving enough for 6 years of Shaw lose his value to this team. It's just not happening.  

What am I missing?

I agree on Nico. But I can see Shaw traded for equal value in the form of a young starting pitcher. 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Bull said:

I've repeatedly gone on record that this s silliness. What am I missing? I have not seen a single credible report that the Cubs are in any way considering a trade of either Shaw of Nico. It makes zero sense as they are clearly going for it this year. They go over the tax every other year if they are in the sweet spot of a win cycle, and this is it. 

I can't see a significant enough overpay of Nico that would warrant the step back on this year, and I can't see anyone giving enough for 6 years of Shaw lose his value to this team. It's just not happening.  

What am I missing?

Sharma and Mooney have said the Cubs are listening multiple times for example. There are credible reports out there. Have been for a while. 

Do I think the Cubs are shopping either? I don't think they're shopping him. But there has been smoke that the Cubs were open to moving Hoerner for over a year now. And here's the thing about how the Cubs operate; when there's smoke, there is fire. We heard names like Bregman and Cabrera for over a year and the Cubs got both of them. They worked with the Marlins as far back as last offseason in trading Caissie to them; he ended up there. 

I'd take these reports as a very real possibility. But I wouldn't take any of them as a certainty. 

[Bertz]

25 minutes ago, Bertz said:

No

To elaborate on this and be less glib, teams don't pay more for offense, it's just that you can cram more offense into a player than you can defense.

The realistic ceiling for defensive performance in a season at your position is about +20 runs.  Add in positional value, which can be a little over 10 for an everyday catcher, and you have a realistic cap on defensive value of +35 runs.  With an average bat that's a 5.5 WAR player.  There is baserunning to consider too, but realistically best case scenario for a catcher is about average.  For CF/SS/2B it helps cover the gap in positional value between catcher and those other spots.

Offense just has a much higher ceiling.  Ohtani has been on average a +70 bat the last three years.  Aaron Judge managed to get to +96 (!!!!) in 2024.

Teams aren't paying more for offense, it's that the guys who get the mega bucks have mega bats.  That's essentially the whole point of WAR, to put these very different player archetypes on the same scale.

[Bertz]

Listening to Sharma and Mooney's podcast from yesterday.

Sharma: "I came away from this weekend (Cubs Convention) thinking that Nico Hoerner's a part of this team without a doubt."

And then don't have the quote but basically said they're listening and would probably make a Kyle Tucker type deal but it's unlikely any other team values him as much as the Cubs and makes that happen.

They also seem to lean against Shaw getting moved, but FAR less definitively.