BREAKING: Cubs Sign Third Baseman Alex Bregman to Five-Year Deal

[Neuby]

11 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

So the deferral news to me is actually kind of a bummer. If they'd already blown past then there's the chance they keep going, but now that we know they haven't, the odds of them making more moves is pretty limited.

I was hoping the same. Lots of depth on the market still to grab another cheap reliever, outfielder, bench bat ect for just $$$. At this point you know you're  going over with trade deadline needs anyway.

 

 

 

[Derwood]

I thought deferrals couldn't keep you from going over the LT? Maybe I misunderstood

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I suspect the team is mostly done from here.  Them being a hair under the LT doesn't feel like an accident.  I'd assume the plan is to be basically right at the line entering the season and let the results in July decide if they're comfortable going over by more than a hair or whether they try and drop back down.

They do have 2 more 40 man spots so they're definitely not done done.  I could see a trade or two to clean up the back of the roster.  Maybe move Rea to save a bit of cash for instance?

I could see a Rea trade as well. But if they are just under I can also see Assad traded instead of Rea. It isn’t a big salary relief, but it is something. Maybe they sit $3M under. They would be able to add something at the TDL, if they had to do something. Plus, if all pitchers are healthy, they would have 6 pitchers. Maybe they move Tailon then. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

14 minutes ago, Derwood said:

I thought deferrals couldn't keep you from going over the LT? Maybe I misunderstood

The AAV that counts towards the Luxury Tax is based on the net present value of the contract, that NPV is lowered by deferrals.  Historically this didn't make a huge difference because deferrals were rare and when they did happened they didn't move the AAV by much since the deferred amount was on the margins.  The Dodgers have popularized doing heavy deferrals, probably as a tax dodge for the player, which can change the AAV enough to be meaningful(Ohtani being the extreme example).  In Bregman's case it's not nearly as seismic(appears to be lowering AAV by about 10%), but the motivation is likely similar as the amount Bregman 'loses' (from time value of money) is potentially offset by tax differences between Illinois/Chicago and his home in retirement(likely AZ where he lives now).

[Neuby]

Won't be long before twitter has the Cubs still connected to Cody Bellinger. I know everyone believes them to be done and they probably are but standby.

[Derwood]

5 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The AAV that counts towards the Luxury Tax is based on the net present value of the contract, that NPV is lowered by deferrals.  Historically this didn't make a huge difference because deferrals were rare and when they did happened they didn't move the AAV by much since the deferred amount was on the margins.  The Dodgers have popularized doing heavy deferrals, probably as a tax dodge for the player, which can change the AAV enough to be meaningful(Ohtani being the extreme example).  In Bregman's case it's not nearly as seismic(appears to be lowering AAV by about 10%), but the motivation is likely similar as the amount Bregman 'loses' (from time value of money) is potentially offset by tax differences between Illinois/Chicago and his home in retirement(likely AZ where he lives now).

The Ohtani argument (I thought) was that you can't give someone (hyperbole) a billion dollars but defer it until the year 2250 to avoid LT issues

[Cuzi]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I wonder if there’s a clause in his contract that requires playing X amount of games at third base. DHing vs lefties with Shaw in the lineup and starting at third base seems logical if they keep all 4.

What would be the purpose of doing that? He's already been paid. It's not like he's Machado going into FA and going back to SS for 1 year to get SS money for his next contract. Besides, Shaw, unless he is traded, will be the starting 2B after this season.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

26 minutes ago, Derwood said:

The Ohtani argument (I thought) was that you can't give someone (hyperbole) a billion dollars but defer it until the year 2250 to avoid LT issues

You in theory can(pending league approval) but the player needs to have something in it for them to agree.  Ohtani is a unicorn in the sense that he'll have zero issues with short term cash flow through endorsements and such, so there's no hit to his quality of life. Then after retirement he can flee California(and possibly the US entirely) and have much better tax treatment on the bulk of his guaranteed money.  Giving, say, Matthew Boyd a 30 million dollar deal with 25 million deferred has much more downside for that caliber of player, and they do 'lose' money through TMV on deferrals so there's a natural pressure the other direction.

[Geographyhater8888]

9 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

What would be the purpose of doing that? He's already been paid. It's not like he's Machado going into FA and going back to SS for 1 year to get SS money for his next contract. Besides, Shaw, unless he is traded, will be the starting 2B after this season.

Because some players have a preference. Assuming he doesn’t then he’ll be a valuable DH option in spots. 

[Andy]

Found this interesting from Keith Law's article on The Athletic:

 

Quote

The Cubs now have one infielder too many, and they’re going to end up trading someone. The most obvious candidate is Shaw, whose rookie season was a disappointment at the plate thanks to some frequent mechanical changes and, according to people I’ve spoken to, resistance to help from the Cubs’ staff.  

 

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, Andy said:

Found this interesting from Keith Law's article on The Athletic:

I don't believe for one second that the Cubs staff would be willing to sabotage their #1 prospect and rookie of the year candidate. His stance completely changed from some scrunched up twisted ball to something more reminiscent of Javier Baez and he blew up at the plate in the 2nd half.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Andy said:

Found this interesting from Keith Law's article on The Athletic:

 

 

Seems like he did take the Cubs help. He definitely altered his stance and swing during the year. I doubt they trade Shaw.

[Brian707]

11 minutes ago, Andy said:

Found this interesting from Keith Law's article on The Athletic:

 

 

[Banks-Williams]

Terrible decision!!  Cubs management needs to be replaced. We don’t need cheaters on the Northside team.  

Just compare Bregman’s stats ftom the 2017-19 Astros cheating years to those post cheating revelation.  And listen to what Bellinger said about them.  I doubt Bellinger would ever play for the Cubs with Bregman on the team since the Astros stole the 2017 World Series from the Dodgers. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Yep. And I don't think you sign Alex Bregman and then immediately look to ship Hoerner off for future players. So my guess is that the Cubs keep Hoerner for 2026 and then Shaw is the heir apparent. 

The Cubs can do a lot of damage in the 2027 draft as they will probably be able to get QOs on a lot of their FAs which makes it less likely, IMO, for the Cubs to try to restock the MiLB side of things with a Nico trade. 

If Mo makes the OD roster and stats the entire season he also has a shot at ROY. Don’t the Cubs get a pick if that happens as well? What is that rule? 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

If Mo makes the OD roster and stats the entire season he also has a shot at ROY. Don’t the Cubs get a pick if that happens as well? What is that rule? 

I do believe Ballesteros would qualify as he is still technically a rookie.

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, Banks-Williams said:

Terrible decision!!  Cubs management needs to be replaced. We don’t need cheaters on the Northside team.  

Just compare Bregman’s stats ftom the 2017-19 Astros cheating years to those post cheating revelation.  And listen to what Bellinger said about them.  I doubt Bellinger would ever play for the Cubs with Bregman on the team since the Astros stole the 2017 World Series from the Dodgers. 

I mean... I dont want Bellinger on the team.... So, YAY!

[Banks-Williams]

13 hours ago, Rex Buckingham said:

They did it!

Did what?

 

They signed a loser from the Astros cheating team!

[Bertz]

There's a bit of wiggle room left depending on where exactly the last few QO guys sign, but these look like the Cubs' day 1 picks next year

#23 (1st round)

#62 (2nd round)

#75 (Tucker comp pick)

#97 (3rd rounder)

[Banks-Williams]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

I mean... I dont want Bellinger on the team.... So, YAY!

You prefer cheaters eh?  That says a lot about you.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I do believe Ballesteros would qualify as he is still technically a rookie.

Does he have to win ROY, or is it if he comes in the top 3 and qualifies from a top prospect standpoint? 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Banks-Williams said:

Did what?

 

They signed a loser from the Astros cheating team!

The loser they just signed has been the 19th most valuable position player in baseball since 2022. I'd like it if the Cubs signed more losers like that.

[Banks-Williams]

13 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

Fair to say , Jed loves Alex Bregman 

Well if this was his decision, he should be fired.  Bregman’s stats post cheating era are that great.  Plus who wants someone associated with cheating on their team 

[Cuzi]

9 minutes ago, Banks-Williams said:

You prefer cheaters eh?  That says a lot about you.

I prefer better baseball players and someone who's wRC+ dropped 60 points outside of Yankee Stadium doesn't top my list of wants and wishes.

[Rcal10]

Why do we get trolls every time the Cubs do something significant? We end up with new posters who are just here to howl at the moon. This is another example.