Winter Doldrums Thread

[Neuby]

 

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Prices rising for controllable starters?

The big returns the Tampa Bay Rays and Pittsburgh Pirates received Friday for right-handers Shane Baz and Mike Burrows, respectively, might only embolden other clubs entertaining offers for controllable starting pitchers.

Baz is under club control for three more seasons, Burrows for six more. Cameron also comes with six additional years of control. Miami Marlins righty Edward Cabrera has three remaining, Washington Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore two.

One difference with Cabrera and Gore is that each made two trips to the injured list last season, while both Baz and Burrows stayed healthy. Then again, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

The Nationals might view Gore and Baz as comparable, contending that while Gore is under control for one fewer season, he’s also a better pitcher. The question is whether the Nats could find a team to motivate them the way the Baltimore Orioles motivated the Rays with Baz.

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https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6907283/2025/12/20/what-im-hearing-about-the-blue-jays-interest-in-bregman-plus-more-mlb-offseason-notes/

The Rays got a haul. If the Cubs aren't moving Mo or Cassie in a deal for Gore who's the headliner?

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe a stupid question, but how is that measured? If he takes a strike on a ball at 95 mph is he 0-1 against that speed. How about a swing and a miss or a foul ball? Or do they only determine his average on the final pitch of the AB? Or with 2 strikes? 

Probably just balls put in play at that speed 🤷‍♂️

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Neuby said:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6907283/2025/12/20/what-im-hearing-about-the-blue-jays-interest-in-bregman-plus-more-mlb-offseason-notes/

The Rays got a haul. If the Cubs aren't moving Mo or Cassie in a deal for Gore who's the headliner?

They have to move Cassie or Mo as the headliner. I think the issue is people not wanted BOTH moved for him. 

[Rcal10]

The downside of the Sox signing Murakami is they were not a team the Cubs had to worry about spending money. Would have liked to see the Red Aoz get him, as an example. All the teams that spend money still have the same amount to spend. 

[mk49]

If we don't get Imai, I would want Joe Ryan.  But, I started thinking it's unrealistic.

[chibears55]

I wonder if Imai will choose tomorrow or Tuesday to get it done before the holidays, im sure he'd rather stay home in Japan and not have to travel during Christmas and NewYears, his deadline is January 2nd.

[mk49]

4 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I wonder if Imai will choose tomorrow or Tuesday to get it done before the holidays, im sure he'd rather stay home in Japan and not have to travel during Christmas and NewYears, his deadline is January 2nd.

Yeah, hopefully, that's what's gonna happen.  If we get Imai, that'd be great.  If not, move on to the next target.

I guess the same thing goes for Okamoto.  I think his deadline is Jan 4th.

Edited December 21, 2025 by mk49

[Bertz]

BBTV had its issues but the idea that the Baz trade is going to flip the market on its head doesn't hold up to a lot of scrutiny IMO

[Derwood]

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I mean he was awful in Japan against 94+, that's all he's going to see in the big leagues

 

Unless he’s facing the Cubs. 

[Hunter]

3 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Unless he’s facing the Cubs. 

We do love our soft tossers. 

[Hortonhearsawho]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

The downside of the Sox signing Murakami is they were not a team the Cubs had to worry about spending money. Would have liked to see the Red Aoz get him, as an example. All the teams that spend money still have the same amount to spend. 

When I saw a report that said the Sox signed him I assumed they were referring to the Red Sox as that would have made sense. But then I clicked on the article and saw it was about the White Sox and then I was surprised about the team and the size of the deal.

[JunkyardWalrus]

3 minutes ago, Hunter said:

We do love our soft tossers. 

Glendon Rusch has long been the mold. 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Don’t know who Peter Appel is but fwiw

 

 

[mk49]

I don't know where it came from, but it's all over the place.

I don't remember where I heard, but there was somebody on Youtube talking about it.  His BA against 93+mph have been dropping for the last 3 years, and it was .095 last year.

 

Edited December 21, 2025 by mk49

[chibears55]

3 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Don’t know who Peter Appel is but fwiw

 

 

Im trying to figure out how this guy had an OPS over 1.000 if he cant hit a fastball over 93 mph.  Do they not have many pitchers in the league that can throw a fastball over 93?

I'd love to see a breakdown of this

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Just now, mk49 said:

I don't know where it came from, but it's all over the place.

 

I know. I’ve seen it too. Not sure which to believe to be honest, but just pointing out that he may not be as laughably bad against velo as has been reported.

[mk49]

Just now, Bobson Dugnutt said:

I know. I’ve seen it too. Not sure which to believe to be honest, but just pointing out that he may not be as laughably bad against velo as has been reported.

If that's the case, the White Sox got a good deal.  I just watched Locked on White Sox, and the guy was so excited, like it's a huge deal.  That was kind of fun to watch.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Im trying to figure out how this guy had an OPS over 1.000 if he cant hit a fastball over 93 mph.  Do they not have many pitchers in the league that can throw a fastball over 93?

I'd love to see a breakdown of this

League average fastball is around 91-92mph. Tatsuya Imai, who averages 95mph threw the second hardest fastball in NPV last year. MLB league average fastball is mid-94mph. 

NPB doesn't have anywhere near the velo we have in MLB. This is with a slightly smaller baseball, too.

[mk49]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

League average fastball is around 91-92mph. Tatsuya Imai, who averages 95mph threw the second hardest fastball in NPV last year. MLB league average fastball is mid-94mph. 

NPB doesn't have anywhere near the velo we have in MLB. This is with a slightly smaller baseball, too.

Was Imai the 2nd hardest as a SP?  Or, all the bullpen guys weren't that fast?

[chibears55]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

League average fastball is around 91-92mph. Tatsuya Imai, who averages 95mph threw the second hardest fastball in NPV last year. MLB league average fastball is mid-94mph. 

NPB doesn't have anywhere near the velo we have in MLB. This is with a slightly smaller baseball, too.

Yea I did a search just to see, I can see why this guy probably didn't get many offers, he is likely going to struggle big against alot of bullpen arms and most starters...

Japan's NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball), their average fastball is around 91-92 MPH, lower than MLB's ~94 MPH but rapidly increasing, with top pitchers hitting 95+ MPH, showing a significant jump in velocity recently. 

Key Points for NPB Fastball Velocity:

• General Average: Around 91.5 - 92 MPH in recent years.
• Growth: Velocity in Japan is increasing faster than in MLB.
• Comparison: Still lags MLB's average (around 93.6-94.2 MPH) but closing the gap.
• Elite Pitchers: Top NPB arms can reach speeds comparable to MLB (95+ MPH). 

So, expect fastball speeds in the low 90s for the average in Japan's top league, with upward trends. 

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

League average fastball is around 91-92mph. Tatsuya Imai, who averages 95mph threw the second hardest fastball in NPV last year. MLB league average fastball is mid-94mph. 

NPB doesn't have anywhere near the velo we have in MLB. This is with a slightly smaller baseball, too.

This also means these numbers are super small sample.  Okamoto's numbers were awful in 24 and then great in 25.

I'm not big on Murakami but the velo stuff isn't really what would worry me.  Especially since with that power hes presumably got special bat speed.

[mk49]

Interesting.  Ohtani and Sasaki can reach 100mph.  Yamamoto's fastest one was like 98.  So, I assumed there were many NPB pitcher who could throw fast.  At least, I didn't think the Imai's average 95mph was the 2nd hardest.

[Cuzi]

20 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Don’t know who Peter Appel is but fwiw

 

 

I dont know who is right when it comes to his average, but what I can say is that Murakami's in zone contract rate over his last 3 seasons in NPB was 72% which is apparently dead last in the league. By comparison for MLB, Joey Gallo's best season in MLB was 71%. Seiya Suzuki was at 89% when he came over and has dropped to 84%. I think typically they project a 3-4% loss in contact, so assuming the same is true for Murakami he'll be at 68-69% in zone contact. That's pretty bad.

Edited December 21, 2025 by Cuzi

[chibears55]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

This also means these numbers are super small sample.  Okamoto's numbers were awful in 24 and then great in 25.

I'm not big on Murakami but the velo stuff isn't really what would worry me.  Especially since with that power hes presumably got special bat speed.

If im the Sox, I have him taking batting practice everyday in ST against guys and machine throwing over 95 so he can get used to it and work on timing....

I will be interested in watching him hit and see how he looks

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This also means these numbers are super small sample.  Okamoto's numbers were awful in 24 and then great in 25.

I'm not big on Murakami but the velo stuff isn't really what would worry me.  Especially since with that power hes presumably got special bat speed.

Yeah, my concern is far less about the velo and far more about the breaking ball issues. If you can get this guy to hit breaking balls, there's a Joey Gallo career in him, but that feels like a tall task. 

The White Sox are in a great place to take the gamble though. They can't really lose.