Tatsuya Imai to the Astros

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

That's not a bad way to look at it. If the White Sox view him as an ace than nobody else does. They're one of the worst ran organizations in all of sports.

Brian Bannister is their pitching director. He's considered one of the best pitching minds in baseball. That isn't accurate. 

The White Sox are cheap. Bannister is a smart guy. 

[ILMindState]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Just a reminder on the White Sox/Imai stuff; just hours before Seiya Suzuki inked a contract with the Cubs, there were reports out of Japan that he had signed with San Diego. I don't know if the Cubs will or wont sign Tatsuya Imai, but if the Cubs do, it'll probably just drop out of nowhere. That's how Suzuki and Imanaga happened. We probably won't see small articles about them being a finalist like that.

Does Murakami cost a posting fee too? This might be BS if so, I can't see Reinsdorf paying a posting fee twice. Although it may be out of necessity since top FA here wouldn't want to willingly sign with the White Sox and they aren't going to get into a bidding war for one.

[Hortonhearsawho]

10 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

If we get outbid by the White Sox....

If we get outbid by the White Sox then that means we had no interest in Imai. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, ILMindState said:

Does Murakami cost a posting fee too? This might be BS if so, I can't see Reinsdorf paying a posting fee twice. Although it may be out of necessity since top FA here wouldn't want to willingly sign with the White Sox and they aren't going to get into a bidding war for one.

Every NPB player has the same % of their total contract posting fee. Murakami's was just under $7m. 

[Outshined_One]

10 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

That's not a bad way to look at it. If the White Sox view him as an ace than nobody else does. They're one of the worst ran organizations in all of sports.

They are, but they've also had a bit of a history in Japan, even setting aside Murakami, with Tadahito Iguchi and Shingo Takatsu.

It also makes sense that a rebuilding team like the White Sox would target a potential high quality guy who doesn't come with an attached draft pick penalty.

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

This may sound odd, but if he ends up signing for far less than originally projected, then I’m not all that interested in him. If he signs for a big deal then the league generally views him as a top of the rotation guy. If he signs for a deal that looks like a bargain, then the league probably views him as a mid rotation guy. We already have plenty of those. 

I understand this and to further the statement, if he signed a 3 to 5 year deal for an AAV beteeen $16M and $22M and it isn’t the Cubs, I wouldn’t say the Cubs missed out on him. I wouldn’t view this as the Xubs didn’t want him more than they were not willing to pay that sort of money for a pitcher. Because money and years is right where Jed is comfortable. Doesn’t mean they are wrong not to want him. Just means they aren’t seeing him as good as maybe Gallen. 

[thawv]

25 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

If we get outbid by the White Sox....

If we get "outbid" by the Sox, it's safe to say we were never going to sign him. 

[Neuby]

The Cubs really can't out afford to lose out on Imai, his value should be higher to a team like the Cubs currently in it's "contention window". 

[ILMindState]

49 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Brian Bannister is their pitching director. He's considered one of the best pitching minds in baseball. That isn't accurate. 

The White Sox are cheap. Bannister is a smart guy. 

Is he? Ok then I guess this is more of a Murakami situation then where he doesn't have a lot of interest. We've heard more rumors about teams that are not being interested than teams that are.

Edited December 30, 2025 by ILMindState

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, ILMindState said:

Is he? Ok then I guess this is more of a Murakami situation then where he doesn't have a lot of interest. We've heard more rumors about teams that are not being interested than teams that are.

Yep! Lance Brodkowski just named him one of this top-5 pitching minds in baseball today in a video. Smart guy! The White Sox aren't a great org, but I'd trust anything Bannister said. 

[mk49]

I wouldn't be surprised, the White Sox sign Sugano for a cheap 1yr deal.  But, Imai?  I don't think so.

[Bertz]

As usual Greg Z is on the money here.  Imai, especially at his age, is an ideal candidate for the patented Boras "swell-opt".  

[We Got The Whole 9]

STEAMER says hes gonna be Colin Rea 

[Rcal10]

9 hours ago, CubinNY said:

We should know more by this afternoon if not sooner 

Well maybe tonight or some time tomorrow.  Not sure the hold up, but these two are definitely using all their time. 

[ILMindState]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Well maybe tonight or some time tomorrow.  Not sure the hold up, but these two are definitely using all their time. 

Probably contemplating returning to Japan since the White Sox are the only team interested

[Hortonhearsawho]

13 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Well maybe tonight or some time tomorrow.  Not sure the hold up, but these two are definitely using all their time. 

Yeah they definitely know who's going to win the bidding by now, but leave it to Boras to try and milk that team for every extra penny that he can get.

[Cuzi]

16 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

Probably contemplating returning to Japan since the White Sox are the only team interested

Even the White Sox would end up paying him at least 7x as much as he would make in Japan.

[CubinNY]

So weird how this process has gone. Maybe Boras has something to do with it. 

[Tryptamine]

I mean, we almost have to have a solid answer tomorrow

[Stratos]

28 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I mean, we almost have to have a solid answer tomorrow

We'll know about 1 hour after the deadline at the latest LOL

[Derwood]

[thawv]

12 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Well maybe tonight or some time tomorrow.  Not sure the hold up, but these two are definitely using all their time. 

My guess is there's not much interest from teams, like Imai has said himself.  I think what interest he does have is a much lesser contract that Boras is looking for.  Roster Resource has him at 4/64, so maybe all this 150-175 talk is just crap leaked by Boras?  I can see a Shota type of deal, but what do I know about what they're thinking. 

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, thawv said:

My guess is there's not much interest from teams, like Imai has said himself.  I think what interest he does have is a much lesser contract that Boras is looking for.  Roster Resource has him at 4/64, so maybe all this 150-175 talk is just crap leaked by Boras?  I can see a Shota type of deal, but what do I know about what they're thinking. 

Imai has 3-4 "formal" offers. It's already been clarified, once again, as a translation issue that yes, Imai has had interest. Him having no interest doesn't make sense. 

Secondly, roster resource is just a crowd sourcing. They had Dylan Cease at 5/$130m. Almost every prediction from every clued in reporter and baseball guy has him well over the $20m AAV. The $200m mark was always the high mark, but no one has had him under $80m and he's not getting Shota money. He might get a somewhat similar(ish) sliding deal, like Greg Zumach suggested where it's 5/$100m with an opt-out after year-3, and the Cubs can then cancel that with a bigger contract, but he ain't getting $16m AAV, either.

I'd look at this like most of the other 2nd-tier-ish NPB guys where he's going to get about the same AAV you expected but it'll be quiet on reporting until it just breaks. Even Murakami got the AAV most expected (16-18m) but the years were low because the K's were such a concern. Imai has some funk to his eval, so maybe he doesn't get the 6+ year deal, but I think anything under $20m AAV is not anywhere near it, either. The amount of concern on Imai might drop him from $150m to $100m but it won't drop him to $60m, either.

[thawv]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Imai has 3-4 "formal" offers. It's already been clarified, once again, as a translation issue that yes, Imai has had interest. Him having no interest doesn't make sense. 

Secondly, roster resource is just a crowd sourcing. Almost every prediction from every clued in reporter and baseball guy has him well over the $20m AAV. The $200m mark was always the high mark, but no one has had him under $80m and he's not getting Shota money. He might get a somewhat similar(ish) sliding deal, like Greg Zumach suggested where it's 5/$100m with an opt-out after year-3, and the Cubs can then cancel that with a bigger contract, but he ain't getting $16m AAV, either.

I'd look at this like most of the other 2nd-tier-ish NPB guys where he's going to get about the same AAV you expected but it'll be quiet on reporting until it just breaks. Even Murakami got the AAV most expected (16-18m) but the years were low because the K's were such a concern. Imai has some funk to his eval, so maybe he doesn't get the 6+ year deal, but I think anything under $20m AAV is not anywhere near it, either. 

I never said no interest.

YOU are the person who turned me on to roster resource, as I've never heard of it before.  I trusted it because you've sited it as a source. 

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, thawv said:

I never said no interest.

YOU are the person who turned me on to roster resource, as I've never heard of it before.  I trusted it because you've sited it as a source. 

Roster resource is great, but you're using it incorrectly. You're using the crowd sourced contracts like they mean something. Use roster resource for actual terms (not Spotrac who is terrible). Here, compare what crowd sourced contracts are compared to what guys got to see how well they're doing this offseason:

Dylan Cease - 5/$130m vs 7/$210m 
Kye Schwarber - 4/$112m - vs 5/$150m 
Pete Alonso - 4/$105m vs 5/$155m 

Edwin Diaz got less year but the same AAV. Josh Naylor almost directly on it. Michael King did much better in AAV and got a highly player-friendly contract. Crowd sourcing gets you much lower than what these guys are getting. Using Imai's numbers there is going to put you $20-$50m low on his total. 4/$64m isn't happening. 

This should tell you that while crowd sourcing can get a temperature, they're not doing well this year. We can't see how much these guys are over performing these numbers, then look at the reported numbers on Imai (which have ranged from around $80m on the low end to $200m on the high end) and think 4/$64m makes sense.