Cubs 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[mul21]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

IMO Pros and Cons to keeping Tucker, given our current assumptions about resources and payroll:

Pros

- Tucker is the best player likely to be available this winter. Probably by a healthy amount

- It is likely to be years before we get another opportunity at acquiring a hitter of Tucker's caliber.  There may be trade options available sooner, but via FA I'm not seeing anyone on this list until the '28/'29 offseason

- Given the post-2026 roster churn, and that PCA and Dansby earn their money primarily in the field, I think there is value in having an impact offensive player under contract through the roster cliff

- It would be nice to know Jed + Tom have the will to win this kind of bidding war

Cons 

- There is an opportunity in front of us right now to work through several very fun kids and see which one(s) worth keeping.  That doesn't just automatically go up in smoke if you re-sign Tucker, but we have seen over the last decade that young hitting is not as liquid of an asset as young pitching

- $40M a year buys some fun arms

- There is significant opportunity cost when committing to a decade long contract.  So you really need to get value up front.  I do worry that, through no fault of Kyle's, our stockpile of corner bats somewhat lessens that value.  Put another way, beyond the question of whether Tucker is worth ~$350M, there's a question of whether for the Cubs right now right field is a place to throw a $350M contract

- It's a small consideration but you do have to account for that 2nd round pick

I lean towards letting Tucker walk, but it's a complicated decision for sure.

I don't think this can be a consideration.  Tucker's bat being as much better as it is than anyone else they can reasonably expect to get at any other position in the near future (as you point out in your "Pros") makes it pretty easy to find the level of production you may have gotten from corner OF at another spot on the field using those resources.  

[I owned a Suzuki]

5 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Is it a concern? Probably, yeah, any time someone is unique and different there probably deserves some concern into how that will translate. His footwork behind the plate is weak thus far and he isn't ready to be an MLB catcher today. 

But I will say this; Alejandro Kirk has shown that his body type isn't an immediate excluding factor. He's also very young, only two other catchers under-21 caught an inning all season at the MLB level (most seasons feature very few catchers ages 23 and below to play). So while I think there are concerns to have, they are just pretty normal concerns we should have with all prospects. I think the body shape thing is an easy crutch for some people but think that the overall answer is far more nuanced than "he looks weird", too. 

I have no data to back this up...just my observation. Ballesteros looks quite a bit more beefy than Kirk

[I owned a Suzuki]

3 hours ago, Tim said:

This may come as a surprise given my previous statements on him, but I'd be for signing Robert this offseason. Part of that is seeing what Vaughn did with proper coaching after his trade. Part of that is Robert quietly putting up a .298/.352/.456 126wRC+ line in the second half, while cutting his K's to 15.2%. He was also a positive in the field and on the bases this year. 

I'd only be in favor of it if he comes at relatively low risk. If he's getting $100M payday from someone, hell no.

I already have a $20 wager that he will hit 25 HRs next season if he is not a White Sox. 

[Caesar]

3 hours ago, Donzo said:

Doubling down on the Kirk comp is awful. Other than being overweight Ballesteros is an awful defensive comp.

How does Ballesteros look "weird"?

The fact he’s allowed himself to be overweight and out of shape at his age is inexcusable. This is his career yet he hasn’t done the physical work to get in shape. You can bet on 10 to 15 pound weight gain in the next 5 years. Maybe a backup 1st baseman?

[I owned a Suzuki]

1 hour ago, Connor McConnor said:

The horsefeathers Brewers flying the L flag has ignited a hatred for them that was mild before.  I hope LA destroys those motherfuckers and I look forward to the day we fly the W in their stadium. 

I live in central Illinois, nothing Milwaukee ever does touches my disdain for the Cardinals and all the effing Cardinal/Packers fans that live around here

[I owned a Suzuki]

6 minutes ago, Caesar said:

The fact he’s allowed himself to be overweight and out of shape at his age is inexcusable. This is his career yet he hasn’t done the physical work to get in shape. You can bet on 10 to 15 pound weight gain in the next 5 years. Maybe a backup 1st baseman?

I agree with your point on his weight. I disagree with his ability to play 1st

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

I have no data to back this up...just my observation. Ballesteros looks quite a bit more beefy than Kirk

Currently Ballesteros is listed at 5"8 197lbs and Kirk at 5"8 245lbs. 

Big Mo is clearly out of date and no one believes he's still under 200. IFA numbers especially are rarely updated until they make an OD roster. 

It'll be interesting to see them when they're updated for sure. They're the same height, it seems, but weight wise I would guess Mo isn't like, crazy off of 245 or anything. 

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, Tim said:

This may come as a surprise given my previous statements on him, but I'd be for signing Robert this offseason. Part of that is seeing what Vaughn did with proper coaching after his trade. Part of that is Robert quietly putting up a .298/.352/.456 126wRC+ line in the second half, while cutting his K's to 15.2%. He was also a positive in the field and on the bases this year. 

I'd only be in favor of it if he comes at relatively low risk. If he's getting $100M payday from someone, hell no.

 

22 minutes ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

I already have a $20 wager that he will hit 25 HRs next season if he is not a White Sox. 

I agree I would be all for signing Roberts if/when Tucker walks. However, he isn’t a FA. I doubt he will be a FA. As bad an organization as the White Sox are, I don’t see them mishandling the whole Robert situation so bad as to let him just walk.

[CubinNY]

I really hate the end of the baseball season 

[Bertz]

29 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I don't think this can be a consideration.  Tucker's bat being as much better as it is than anyone else they can reasonably expect to get at any other position in the near future (as you point out in your "Pros") makes it pretty easy to find the level of production you may have gotten from corner OF at another spot on the field using those resources.  

The problem is with these mega deals you have to get crazy value up front.  If Tucker makes e.g. $40M a year on a decade contract, you're expecting $70M+ in production the first few years and that to be balanced by closer to $10M in production the last few.  You're pushing for a lot of value up front.

With how logjammed our corner situation is, I think you're not necessarily getting as much juice out of Tucker's production as you'd hope for.  Caissie giving you ~$20M in production at league minimum plus the $40M in pitching you buy gets you a stones throw from Tucker on the front end without committing to the ugly back end.

If Tucker played at a position of greater need, or if I felt more confident in the liquidity of the prospects it'd be moot.  But I think it's a real and sizable consideration for us.

[Backtobanks]

Mo reminds me of Smoky Burgess, except Burgess could catch.  For those of you who aren't baby boomers, see if you can find video of Burgess.

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Mo reminds me of Smoky Burgess, except Burgess could catch.  For those of you who aren't baby boomers, see if you can find video of Burgess.

How old are you? I go back to my first Cubs disappointment being the ‘69 Cubs. But I don’t remember Burgess. 

[JHBulls]

Pro - Won 92 games. For the first 2-3 months of the year outscored everyone. Kyle Tucker was great in the first half. Looked liked a division title was on the cards. Went 4-1 at home in the postseason. 
 

Cons - Stopped hitting in the second half. 3B issues all year. No bench to speak of. Pitching struggled at times. Kyle Tucker looked awful in the second half. Finished 2nd in the division. Went 0-3 on the road in the postseason. 
 

Future - Plug holes in the roster. Win the division. 

[Tim]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

 

I agree I would be all for signing Roberts if/when Tucker walks. However, he isn’t a FA. I doubt he will be a FA. As bad an organization as the White Sox are, I don’t see them mishandling the whole Robert situation so bad as to let him just walk.

I don't think the White Sox want to pay him $20M next year. They may pick up the option, but I'd have to think their intent would be to trade him after he showed some life in the second half.

[Rcal10]

32 minutes ago, Tim said:

I don't think the White Sox want to pay him $20M next year. They may pick up the option, but I'd have to think their intent would be to trade him after he showed some life in the second half.

Trading for him is different that signing him. Yiu have to give something up for him. Sox aren’t giving him away. And I am not sure they would pay him $20M and keep him around unless they get a good package for him. 

[Tim]

19 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Trading for him is different that signing him. Yiu have to give something up for him. Sox aren’t giving him away. And I am not sure they would pay him $20M and keep him around unless they get a good package for him. 

I don't think they'll take the chance, but I could be overestimating their cheapness.

[Tryptamine]

My money is they decline his option.

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

My money is they decline his option.

IMO there is no chance they do that. If they were going to do that why. It trade him last deadline? Get something for him. 

[Tryptamine]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

IMO there is no chance they do that. If they were going to do that why. It trade him last deadline? Get something for him. 

You're talking about an owner who has never given out a 70 million dollar contract and you think he's going to pay 20M on the hopes that Robert proves the last 1.5 to 2 seasons were a fluke and he's not actually mediocre at best?

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Caesar said:

The fact he’s allowed himself to be overweight and out of shape at his age is inexcusable. This is his career yet he hasn’t done the physical work to get in shape. You can bet on 10 to 15 pound weight gain in the next 5 years. Maybe a backup 1st baseman?

He's lost a bunch of weight over the seasons.

[Stratos]

10 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Is it a concern? Probably, yeah, any time someone is unique and different there probably deserves some concern into how that will translate. His footwork behind the plate is weak thus far and he isn't ready to be an MLB catcher today. 

But I will say this; Alejandro Kirk has shown that his body type isn't an immediate excluding factor. He's also very young, only two other catchers under-21 caught an inning all season at the MLB level (most seasons feature very few catchers ages 23 and below to play). So while I think there are concerns to have, they are just pretty normal concerns we should have with all prospects. I think the body shape thing is an easy crutch for some people but think that the overall answer is far more nuanced than "he looks weird", too. 

Biggest question for me for Mo is the throwing.  Big guy needs to shift and move quick to get a good pop-time.  Catchers can always keep improving their craft but i assume the Cubs have a good idea at this point of Mo's defensive ability and future catching.

Looked up Kirk on Savant, his pop- time was average this year after being below average for a few seasons prior.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

You're talking about an owner who has never given out a 70 million dollar contract and you think he's going to pay 20M on the hopes that Robert proves the last 1.5 to 2 seasons were a fluke and he's not actually mediocre at best?

So why wouldn’t they have traded him for anything at the deadline if they aren’t going to pick up his contract. And, they have spent more than $70M on a contract. 

[CDM0481]

The Cubs need…  

Two lights out relief pitchers that can blow away hitters late. Outside of Palencia I can’t recall any starter or reliever that averaged over 1k/IP

Make a run for Bo Bichette. He’s 27 and just entering his prime. Put him at 3rd, and package Shaw and Cassie together for Luis Robert Jr. and put him in the leadoff spot and move Busch to the 3 hole where he belongs. The last thing the Cubs need is another guy that will hit around 20 home runs, hit .220-.230 and strike out 150-175 times. That’s what Cassie translates to at this level. Robert has speed, and He and Hoerner will be a nuisance at the top of the lineup.

Make a run for Schwarber

 

Robert Jr LF

Nico 2B

Busch 1B

Schwarber DH

Bichette 3B

Crow CF

Suzuki RF

Amaya C

Swanson SS

 

Happ platoons in LF, CF, and DH

 

 

 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, CDM0481 said:

The Cubs need…  

Two lights out relief pitchers that can blow away hitters late. Outside of Palencia I can’t recall any starter or reliever that averaged over 1k/IP

Make a run for Bo Bichette. He’s 27 and just entering his prime. Put him at 3rd, and package Shaw and Cassie together for Luis Robert Jr. and put him in the leadoff spot and move Busch to the 3 hole where he belongs. The last thing the Cubs need is another guy that will hit around 20 home runs, hit .220-.230 and strike out 150-175 times. That’s what Cassie translates to at this level. Robert has speed, and He and Hoerner will be a nuisance at the top of the lineup.

Make a run for Schwarber

 

Robert Jr LF

Nico 2B

Busch 1B

Schwarber DH

Bichette 3B

Crow CF

Suzuki RF

Amaya C

Swanson SS

 

Happ platoons in LF, CF, and DH

 

 

 

There isn’t a chance they do all of this. They aren’t singing Bichette and Schwarber. Then you suggest trading Cassie because you don’t want a guy who just .220-.230, with 20 homers and 150-175 strike outs and then say they should get Robert. He is a guy you just described. They are also never going to have Happ in the team as a platoon outfielder. And with all of this you didn’t improve their pitching. 

[CDM0481]

I did suggest improving pitching... additional of 2 late inning guys that get strikeouts to compliment Palencia.

Luis Robert would steal 50-60 bases, and probably add 20-25+ home runs in a better situation than he was last year constantly hearing his name being involved in trades. 
 

i get they probably won’t sign Bichette and Kyle. For the above scenario to work, they’d need to get Bichette.

As far as starting pitching goes, take your chances with what you got. When the trade deadline approaches, that’s where you add. Too many question marks that are too risky to offer what will be demanded. The best free agent starters all pitched poorly last year. If you can get a prove it deal for one year high AAV then ok. Beyond that, Cubs should pass