Cubs 2025 Trade Deadline Thread

[gflore34]

6 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

And Dovall blew another lead and the Marlins win.

Bird, Bednar, and Doval: 2.1 IP, 10 H, 9 ER. You love to see it.

Two HR's by Javier Sanoja who very much appears to be a meh player.

[Stratos]

16 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Stratos, to be clear, even at a 30% chance of signing him that still leave a 70% chance he doesn’t sign. So you will probably be right that he won’t be a Cub. I just think it isn’t a forgone conclusion by the FO and ownership that they won’t even “seriously try” to get him. I think they will go to the mega year, mega millions offers others will be offering. I do not think they will limit the offer to 7 years when others are offering 10+. 
Frankly I don’t care about past examples. Those example is not a comparison. They didn’t go after Soto because they wanted Tucker. They did go big on Ohtani, even though there really was no hope there. Any other FA years ago has no bearing on what can happen now. He is the first guy who is in this team who the Cubs can try to keep as opposed as try to get. I think that is a difference. In the end, even I don’t have the Cubs signing him. I just differ in my belief about them trying and I do have some hope. 

30% is a 1 out of 3 chance though, which is very high.   I'll mention something you'll like though.  I thought about what other teams might want to sign him, and there's no obvious team.  If you look at any other team with the payroll to sign him at 40m AAV almost all of them are stacked with big star contracts already,

Dodgers and Padres are likely tapped out, Yanks have Judge/Cole/Fried/Rodon, Phillies have Turner/Harper, Mets have Soto/Lindor, Jays have Vlad Jr, Texas has Seager/DeGrom, Giants have Devers/Adames/Chapman, Braves don't do these contracts etc.

Biggest contender might be the Red Sox (just dumped Devers' contract), and maybe a big spender like the Yanks wanting to add more.  Astros may not have dumped him if they wanted to resign him.

If the Cubs want him I think they have a great shot, but again I really doubt Ricketts on that, and Jed is notorious for seeking good value contracts.

[JunkyardWalrus]

21 hours ago, KCCub said:

Honestly, I hate that we're comparing our deadline to the Brewers right now (Yes, division foes, blah). They're always going to do the small market thing and make moves that improve their margins. Miller, Lockridge, Vaughn, etc. 

 

You described Jed to a 'T.'

[Guest]

So I've watched both new bullpen guys throw in games for us now and I'm really liking both acquisitions here. A righty and a lefty, both interesting, wonky deliveries but both effective. Hopefully we can limit Horton's innings enough down the stretch and he will be able to be part of the PO rotation

[Rcal10]

On 8/1/2025 at 11:38 PM, Stratos said:

30% is a 1 out of 3 chance though, which is very high.   I'll mention something you'll like though.  I thought about what other teams might want to sign him, and there's no obvious team.  If you look at any other team with the payroll to sign him at 40m AAV almost all of them are stacked with big star contracts already,

Dodgers and Padres are likely tapped out, Yanks have Judge/Cole/Fried/Rodon, Phillies have Turner/Harper, Mets have Soto/Lindor, Jays have Vlad Jr, Texas has Seager/DeGrom, Giants have Devers/Adames/Chapman, Braves don't do these contracts etc.

Biggest contender might be the Red Sox (just dumped Devers' contract), and maybe a big spender like the Yanks wanting to add more.  Astros may not have dumped him if they wanted to resign him.

If the Cubs want him I think they have a great shot, but again I really doubt Ricketts on that, and Jed is notorious for seeking good value contracts.

I think this is a fair posts. I do understand apprehension about the Cubs really going all in on someone. But as others have said before, most teams never have, until they do. I just think Tucker is different than other FA that got mega deals. I think he is a guy they want. That is why they traded for him. Now he he here. IMO that makes it different. Also, as you pointed out, there may not be that much competition. If Tucker likes his time here they also helps. Yes, money has to be there. Cubs can’t offer $ years when others are offering 10+. But I don’t think the Cubs would have traded for him if they were not at least going to commit to a mega offer. My biggest disagreement with several posters is I just don’t see it as a foregone conclusion they aren’t even going to be competitive for him. I think they will be. But even so, 30% still has me bringing more likely than not he won’t we here next year. But I think they will try. I can see a 10+ year offer with about $40M annual. I think they will play in that level. 

[chibears55]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I can see a 10+ year offer with about $40M annual. I think they will play in that level. 

I actually feel that the max they go with Tucker is 10/400, unless they front load money, I dont think theyll want to be paying Tucker 40+ mil while hes in his late 30s going into his 40s, he'll be 29 at the start of next season. 

Of course if TR plans on selling in the next 10 years then it could be different 🤷‍♂️😆

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

 

Of course if TR plans on selling in the next 10 years then it could be different 🤷‍♂️😆

They aren't selling anything. It's the most significant source of passive income they've ever had. 

[chibears55]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

They aren't selling anything. It's the most significant source of passive income they've ever had. 

I know, it was a ha ha 😆

[Backtobanks]

57 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think this is a fair posts. I do understand apprehension about the Cubs really going all in on someone. But as others have said before, most teams never have, until they do. I just think Tucker is different than other FA that got mega deals. I think he is a guy they want. That is why they traded for him. Now he he here. IMO that makes it different. Also, as you pointed out, there may not be that much competition. If Tucker likes his time here they also helps. Yes, money has to be there. Cubs can’t offer $ years when others are offering 10+. But I don’t think the Cubs would have traded for him if they were not at least going to commit to a mega offer. My biggest disagreement with several posters is I just don’t see it as a foregone conclusion they aren’t even going to be competitive for him. I think they will be. But even so, 30% still has me bringing more likely than not he won’t we here next year. But I think they will try. I can see a 10+ year offer with about $40M annual. I think they will play in that level. 

"My biggest disagreement with several posters is I just don’t see it as a foregone conclusion they aren’t even going to be competitive for him."  The question is whose definition of "being competitive" are we going to use.  According to the Cubs, they have made "competitive offers" to many of the big-time FAs over the years.

[CubinNY]

They will have a number. The number will be their number. And that's it. If he can get more, he will be gone. Will it be a "competitive number"? Probably. But if we know one thing about them, it's that they don't move once they think they've maxed out. Jed doesn't seem to mind the AAV, but he minds the years. He echoes the Ricketts sentiment of not wanting to get into bad contracts over many years. 

They will only sign guys to "fair" or "team-friendly" deals. They won't sign a player if they know he'll be worth significantly less than they pay for two or three years. It's not their DNA. They don't seem to care about winning as much as they do making horsefeathers tons of money, that's why they have Jed. 

They don't seem to mind losing their shirts on ****** hotels and sports books. But that's what they have the Cubs for, to balance the books for them. 

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

"My biggest disagreement with several posters is I just don’t see it as a foregone conclusion they aren’t even going to be competitive for him."  The question is whose definition of "being competitive" are we going to use.  According to the Cubs, they have made "competitive offers" to many of the big-time FAs over the years.

I mean they will go to an uncomfortable level and one that industry wide would be considered competetive. Not “cubs” competetive. 10+ years and high end annual. Hard to say amounts because deferrals come into play. Opt outs, NTC, signing bonus, etc. but IMO there bid will be comparable to others. Now if someone comes in at 12/$600 without deferred money, he is done. I don’t think that will happen. But I just don’t think they traded for him with the thought we can get him cheap and how we always do things. I think they knew this would be different and accept the idea they will have to operate differently. 

[BigSlick]

I wonder how much the Heyward deal weighs on their mind when they think of big FA contracts. Obviously, that didn’t work out as anyone had hoped (though it’s hard to complain when you win a World Series with him). 
 

hardest part of the Heyward saga is that there were so many seemingly good things around it: he was younger than most stars who hit free agency, he hadn’t seemed to maximize his talent yet, he was an all around good ball player. And then he came in and collapsed as a hitter his first year and slowly built himself back up but never played at the level you wa fed or expected. That kind of thing can scar a weak-willed ownership,

[Derwood]

Heyward was so maddening. Completely forgot how to hit for no reason whatsoever 

[Backtobanks]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I mean they will go to an uncomfortable level and one that industry wide would be considered competetive. Not “cubs” competetive. 10+ years and high end annual. Hard to say amounts because deferrals come into play. Opt outs, NTC, signing bonus, etc. but IMO there bid will be comparable to others. Now if someone comes in at 12/$600 without deferred money, he is done. I don’t think that will happen. But I just don’t think they traded for him with the thought we can get him cheap and how we always do things. I think they knew this would be different and accept the idea they will have to operate differently. 

Sometimes I think the Cubs get players with the thought that they will get a hometown discount after the player falls in love with Wrigley and the fans.

 

[Derwood]

2 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Sometimes I think the Cubs get players with the thought that they will get a hometown discount after the player falls in love with Wrigley and the fans.

 

I can’t think of anyone besides Rizzo who actually gave a hometown discount. 

Edited August 3, 2025 by Derwood

[Backtobanks]

1 minute ago, Derwood said:

I can’t think of anyone besides Rizzo who actually gave a hometown discount. 

Yeah, there aren't too many sentimental players left, especially with their agents telling them how much money they could get in free agency.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Jose Ramirez signed a 7/141 extension 3 years ago. Incredible discount.

[Rcal10]

29 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Sometimes I think the Cubs get players with the thought that they will get a hometown discount after the player falls in love with Wrigley and the fans.

 

I don’t think they were banking on a hometown discount. But I am fairly certain they did want him here to experience Wrigley. At the very least love it here so he considers their offer in a favorable manner. With the way teams do deferrals, opt outs, signing bonuses and whatever else they can do to structure a contract there may be multiple offers where one person feels one offer is best while another person likes the other deal. So having a player enjoying where he is playing can slant him towards that teams deal. Or maybe even have him allow the Cubs last option. I am not saying that will happen. I am suggesting the Cubs might be hoping loving here does allow them the last chance to match. There isn’t going to be some actual discount. That doesn’t happen. 

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Jose Ramirez signed a 7/141 extension 3 years ago. Incredible discount.

To stay in CLEVELAND!!!! 

[Hortonhearsawho]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

To stay in CLEVELAND!!!! 

Yeah it's one thing to take a discount to stay in like San Diego or something but to do it to stay in Cleveland is pretty wild. 

[Post Count Padder]

For a few years the Braves were getting such team friendly extensions you wondered if it was blackmail. 

[CubinNY]

14 hours ago, Derwood said:

I can’t think of anyone besides Rizzo who actually gave a hometown discount. 

Andre Dawson

 

[CubinNY]

13 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t think they were banking on a hometown discount. But I am fairly certain they did want him here to experience Wrigley. At the very least love it here so he considers their offer in a favorable manner. With the way teams do deferrals, opt outs, signing bonuses and whatever else they can do to structure a contract there may be multiple offers where one person feels one offer is best while another person likes the other deal. So having a player enjoying where he is playing can slant him towards that teams deal. Or maybe even have him allow the Cubs last option. I am not saying that will happen. I am suggesting the Cubs might be hoping loving here does allow them the last chance to match. There isn’t going to be some actual discount. That doesn’t happen. 

I think you are wish-casting. They know his agent. They have a very good idea of his value. I think they will make a "fair" offer and try to get creative or whatever on the accounting. But if LA, NYY, or NYM want him, that's where he will play. 

I am entirely convinced the Ricketts are looking to win the upcoming labor dispute in 2027. They don't want to have a lot of contracts because they will be in a better negotiating position after the strike is over. 

[Rcal10]

43 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I think you are wish-casting. They know his agent. They have a very good idea of his value. I think they will make a "fair" offer and try to get creative or whatever on the accounting. But if LA, NYY, or NYM want him, that's where he will play. 

I am entirely convinced the Ricketts are looking to win the upcoming labor dispute in 2027. They don't want to have a lot of contracts because they will be in a better negotiating position after the strike is over. 

I’m not wish-casting. I was answering the post about the Cubs expecting a home town discount. I am saying that isn’t happening. That the best they can hope for is him loving it here. That is all Jed can possibly hope for. I did not say he will do that. In my post I even said”I am not saying this will happen”, meaning I was only suggesting what I said was the most the Cubs could hope for, not an actual discount. If you are suggesting he will leave to LA or NY because they made a crazy offer, I agree he will go then. But I think Jed is hoping if he loves it at Wrigley and the offers are comparable he will stay here. Again, this is what I believe the FO is hoping for, as opposed to an actual “discount”. I have no clue or have any actual expectation as to how it turns out. I just think they will be aggressive and getting him here this year can only help, if they are in the same ballpark. He isn’t coming on a discount!!! 

[Derwood]

I'm not worried about NY or LA. Boston is the team with the money and the need.