Mooney: Cubs sign Justin Turner

[Transmogrified Tiger]

10 minutes ago, ryanrc said:

60 games? no, because you're bypassing the actual young outfielders who can hit as well or better than Turner.....

Those young outfielders are not a clearly better bet offensively.  ZiPS has Turner with a 112 wRC+, Caissie 100, Alcantara 85.  But even if the team prefers to bet on their upside when there's an IL stint(or wants the marginally better defense over Suzuki), they are unlikely to be called up to fill in twice a week for normal rest or a  knock that doesn't require an IL stint.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, ryanrc said:

Quote

Saying that 'being optimistic about Turner is questionable because people liked Mancini and Hosmer' doesn't make any sense.  If anything he has more in common at the plate with someone like Tauchman who continued to exceed expectations at the plate despite being older than Mancini/Hosmer were during their Cubs tenure.

Now you're really not making sense here. Tauchman was a lefty outfielder, not even 1b /

I bow out of this because I dont even know what we're talking about anymore.  

Turner as a hitter has more in common with Tauchman in terms of their swings and peripherals than he does with Mancini/Hosmer.  Handedness and position aren't the primary drivers of aging curves.  Turner is also a more accomplished hitter than Mancini(who had a much shorter peak), Hosmer(who was never a consistently good hitter), and obviously Tauchman, so using them as your comparison just because they played for the Cubs is not very useful. 

[Bertz]

Last year non-catchers on the Cubs' bench got just under 900 PAs.

- PCA probably takes a bite out of that and goes from 410 PAs to 500+

- On the flip side Shaw will likely get shielded a bit, especially early, so he probably doesn't hit the 630 PAs from Morel + Paredes

So even assuming a pretty normal level of time on the DL like the position player group had last year, that's enough for ~300 PAs to Turner, ~200 to Berti, ~300 to the kids, and another ~100 to various randos like Brujan.  And if there are big injuries or underperformance then the kids can soak up those extra PAs.

It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking bench players won't get enough playing time, but once the season starts and injuries/rest come up it almost always works out.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Projections are fun but some of you guys are absolutely married to them. The horsefeathers Brewers outplayed theirs by like 10 games last year. 

 

The Turner add is largely about competence/"professional hitter" and his extensive experience. Maybe he can also help de-code the Dodgers slightly, who knows. To me that is definitely a signing that they feel very confident will hit well and help lead a team that is quite short on playoff experience. He's the kind of guy we should want influencing some of our younger hitters. Amazing approach, consistent, will get on base and produce above-average power, situational hitting. 

[Jason Ross]

Speaking of projections, ZiPS has Turner as a 112 wrC+ hitter and worth 1.0 fWAR. Conversely they have Grichuk as a 95 wRC+ and a 0.0 fWAR valuation. 

[SOFNR]

If you want to be annoyed Hoyer's "wait out the market" plan wasn't very successful this year then I get it. I wish they had been more proactive earlier in FA. But at this point caring about whether a guy like Turner or Robertson is going to outperform their contract is pretty silly. There isn't much out there on the FA market anymore. Signer Turner and one of Chafin/Robertson raises the floor of this team. The Cubs have the money to do that and still make significant moves at the deadline. If they suck, or there is a young player that proves they can be a better option, then you cut them and eat the money. They are very likely to be better then the players they would be replacing to start the season. Not signing them because they might not be worth every penny of their 1 year contract doesn't really make any sense.

Edited February 18, 2025 by SOFNR

[KCCub]

 

[ToolDRT]

1 minute ago, KCCub said:

 

That’s always fun to hear. Makes you root for the guy a little more. 

[CubinNY]

13 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

That’s always fun to hear. Makes you root for the guy a little more. 

I'll root for him b/c he's on the Cubs. But he's kind of an horsefeathers. Probably not that much different than most of them though. 

[thawv]

2 hours ago, ryanrc said:

Meh. It's not a bad move, and I'm fine with him having the 26th roster spot, which usually doesn't play much of a factor in a pennant race. But at 6 million, I'm doubtful he produces enough WAR to earn his keep. I think he's worth 3 or 4 million - a bit less than Berti's true value of over 5 million, but being paid twice as much as Berti on the hopes his name recognition makes fans happy. I expect him to hit about .730 OPS this year against mostly lefties and only play 1B/DH. 

1) He can start at DH occasionally against opposing lefty starters, with Suzuki subbing for PCA/Happ/Turner in the field, but that's hopefully only a dozen starts (under 50 at bats) - maybe twice that if we run into injury woes. We want our starting three out there with gold glove performances, because the chances that Turner significantly outhits even PCA is actually fairly low. 

2) His splits against left-handed pitching still can play ok, so he can occasionally start for Busch at first, too, but again, that's another dozen games, tops (under 50 at bats). Busch is expected to start 150 games and will usually outhit Turner by a nice margin.

3) He can OCCASIONALLY pinch hit in games when other players are slumping. Last year he was .758 against lefties in a small sample size but only .730 against righties. Good enough for power situations in place of Hoerner/Berti, or Amaya/Kelly, if he's on a hot streak and they aren't, and you don't even use his glove. However, you don't even want Swanson off the plate for Turner. let's call that another 50 pinch reps, playing a similar role as Patrick Wisdom over the last two years.  

All in all, this is an estimated 150-200 plate appearances for 6 million - that's an 18 million dollar pro-rated season for a meh DEH! His bat is only "a slight improvement" over the players for whom he's pinching. As I've said before, most teams pay a guy with his bat, sans glove, 6 million for a full season of appearances. On the upside, he's the kind of experienced bench bat you want in the post-season because he's seen it all and performed well under pressure. 

I wanted Grichuk as our lefty killer bat because the guy can hit almost .900 OPS as a platoon, as opposed to Turner's projected .700-.750 range. And yet we paid Turner 1 million more than Grichuk got paid by the Dbacks this year- I'm scratching my head about that. The WAR doesn't add up.  
 

I think he gets 250-300 PA's

[Post Count Padder]

Much like Brasier, this felt like it was bound to happen if we didn't get Bregman. And honestly, it's fine. Like many have said, this improves the bench greatly and gives us a proper backup at the corners/DH, which we didn't have. Is Turner cooked? Maybe. But our output from backups last year was atrocious. It was easily worth it and makes the team better on paper. No one is expecting him to get 400 at bats.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Projections are fun but some of you guys are absolutely married to them. The horsefeathers Brewers outplayed theirs by like 10 games last year. 

Projections are about the average likely outcome using data.  You run a season 100 times and that's roughly what you'll be most likely to get as an average.  Any team or player can outperform or underperform projections for all sorts of reasons.  Nobody can predict the future but using data is better than just eyeballing what we think a guy will do.

I'm not a big fan of paying 6 million for a 1 WAR position player with  limited positions who is 40 y/o but I guess it's better than not spending lol.

[ToolDRT]

4 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I'll root for him b/c he's on the Cubs. But he's kind of an horsefeathers. Probably not that much different than most of them though. 

Is he? I honestly don’t know much about him. 

[Wilson A2000]

5 hours ago, KCCub said:

 

Tom Ricketts’ favorite type of Cubs player

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, thawv said:

I think he gets 250-300 PA's

Yeah, if one of Suzuki, Happ, Tucker, or Busch get hurt then Turner's in the lineup everyday most likely, and that doesn't even count 3B.  He has a decent shot to get a whole bunch of PA's.

[thawv]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

Yeah, if one of Suzuki, Happ, Tucker, or Busch get hurt then Turner's in the lineup everyday most likely, and that doesn't even count 3B.  He has a decent shot to get a whole bunch of PA's.

All 5 players should get about 10-12 games off without injuries.  When any OF gets a day off, he'll likely DH.  He'll likely see maybe 15 games at 1B.  That could be 50 or more starts without an injury.  Add in pinch hitting, and he'll see plenty of action for a bench guy.  

[BigbadB]

I don't think anyone is jumping up and down for joy that Turner is a Cub now. I don't think anyone here would have crafted an offseason plan that would have included Turner. He's getting paid more than he's likely worth. 

But, given where this offseason has led the Cubs brass, he's a decent signing this late in the ballgame. While I do agree it's important to consider cap space on any signings, I don't see how overpaying for a bench bat when there is plenty in the coffers to not only sign Turner and possibly another pitcher, but they'd still have plenty left at the trade deadline. Overspending on a budget actually works if you managed to keep enough in reserve to be able to make those types of signings.

I also think he'll end up with a lot of at bats, and not necessarily at the expense of the better bats. Injuries happen, and Turner is 100% the first DH option the moment someone is missing time, whether it's for a DL stint or days of rest. I think there will be a lot of rotating of outfielders to get Suzuki plenty of time in the field since he's not all that keen on being a full time DH.

Grichuk just wasn't coming to Chicago. There is already 4 OFers blocking him from playing the field, and there is really no position he fills as a bench guy that wasn't already covered. Grichuck hasn't played a single inning at 1b in his entire MLB career, and that's something that was a bit needed. As much as Ryanrc thinks any athlete can play 1b, and in a pinch, I think good athletes can catch a ball, I have to agree with Cubs brass that having one with experience that can also hit is a much better idea than just winging it.

Whether Turner deserves 6m or not:

A combination of Workman, Brujan, Kelly, Berti and Canario is not as good of a bench as Workman, Turner, Kelly, Berti and Canario, and benches do matter. It drove me nuts seeing Wisdom being the best bench bat at times in previous seasons. No one is going to be sitting here waiting for "I told you so's" at the end of the season if the Cubs stay relatively healthy all year and Turner only logs about 125-150 at bats. You sign a decent bench bat for the risk there will be that many and possibly a whole lot more.

[thawv]

19 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

I don't think anyone is jumping up and down for joy that Turner is a Cub now. I don't think anyone here would have crafted an offseason plan that would have included Turner. He's getting paid more than he's likely worth. 

But, given where this offseason has led the Cubs brass, he's a decent signing this late in the ballgame. While I do agree it's important to consider cap space on any signings, I don't see how overpaying for a bench bat when there is plenty in the coffers to not only sign Turner and possibly another pitcher, but they'd still have plenty left at the trade deadline. Overspending on a budget actually works if you managed to keep enough in reserve to be able to make those types of signings.

I also think he'll end up with a lot of at bats, and not necessarily at the expense of the better bats. Injuries happen, and Turner is 100% the first DH option the moment someone is missing time, whether it's for a DL stint or days of rest. I think there will be a lot of rotating of outfielders to get Suzuki plenty of time in the field since he's not all that keen on being a full time DH.

Grichuk just wasn't coming to Chicago. There is already 4 OFers blocking him from playing the field, and there is really no position he fills as a bench guy that wasn't already covered. Grichuck hasn't played a single inning at 1b in his entire MLB career, and that's something that was a bit needed. As much as Ryanrc thinks any athlete can play 1b, and in a pinch, I think good athletes can catch a ball, I have to agree with Cubs brass that having one with experience that can also hit is a much better idea than just winging it.

Whether Turner deserves 6m or not:

A combination of Workman, Brujan, Kelly, Berti and Canario is not as good of a bench as Workman, Turner, Kelly, Berti and Canario, and benches do matter. It drove me nuts seeing Wisdom being the best bench bat at times in previous seasons. No one is going to be sitting here waiting for "I told you so's" at the end of the season if the Cubs stay relatively healthy all year and Turner only logs about 125-150 at bats. You sign a decent bench bat for the risk there will be that many and possibly a whole lot more.

Of the 5 bench guys you listed, which one doesn't make the roster? 

[BigbadB]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

Of the 5 bench guys you listed, which one doesn't make the roster? 

Probably Workman.

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, BigbadB said:

Probably Workman.

I would agree with this, but they could use a left handed bat off the bench. Problem is Canario is out of options. I don’t see them just letting him go. So maybe there is another trade in store. Maybe Canario for a guy not on the 40 man and Workman makes the team. Maybe Canario is added to Cassie and either Wicks or Assad (preferably Assad) and they get Cease😬. Workman makes the team. 

[Bertz]

 

 

[squally1313]

Yeah, as someone who is probably considered 'too married' to the raw numbers, with all this extra cash lying around bringing in a guy who can also double as a hitting coach to the Shaws of the world certainly can't hurt. You could tell how excited Happ, Hoerner, etc were yesterday. 

[BigbadB]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I would agree with this, but they could use a left handed bat off the bench. Problem is Canario is out of options. I don’t see them just letting him go. So maybe there is another trade in store. Maybe Canario for a guy not on the 40 man and Workman makes the team. Maybe Canario is added to Cassie and either Wicks or Assad (preferably Assad) and they get Cease😬. Workman makes the team. 

Workman hasn't played an inning above AA ball. He's probably better off if the Cubs make some sort of trade official and dumping him to AAA where he can hit everyday rather than rotting on the bench as a little used lefty bat. Or just return him to Detroit and find a lefty hitting INF/OF option.

[Rcal10]

25 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

Workman hasn't played an inning above AA ball. He's probably better off if the Cubs make some sort of trade official and dumping him to AAA where he can hit everyday rather than rotting on the bench as a little used lefty bat. Or just return him to Detroit and find a lefty hitting INF/OF option.

Good point. Right about now I wish they would have kept Tauchman. He would have been a nice lefty bench bat. 

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Good point. Right about now I wish they would have kept Tauchman. He would have been a nice lefty bench bat. 

Yeah on February 19th you'd probably love to throw a pile of cash his way, enough to get him comfortable with being a 5th outfielder at best. But he's done enough to warrant more PAs and went and got that opportunity. Go trade for him in a couple months if need be.