The Athletic: Cubs Eying Justin Turner

[Bertz]

The rumor du jour the last two weeks in Cubs land has been Alex Bregman.  We finally have an indication of what the team's backup plan is if he chooses to go elsewhere.  Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney indicate tonight the team is eying the aged Justin Turner.

After the Cody Bellinger and Matt Mervis trades, the Cubs' roster is very thin at first base behind starter Michael Busch. Matt Trueblood wrote about the issue earlier today.  Turner would give the time a far more viable backup than they have on hand currently.

Turner is mostly a 1B/DH at this point in his career, so while his Baseball-Reference page says "Third Basemen" he would not be a threat to block Matt Shaw unless things went very very wrong for the rookie.  Turner would likely play 1B and DH primarily, and get just a smattering of playing time at 2nd and 3rd.

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[chibears55]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

The rumor du jour the last two weeks in Cubs land has been Alex Bregman.  We finally have an indication of what the team's backup plan is if he chooses to go elsewhere.  Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney indicate tonight the team is eying the aged Justin Turner.

After the Cody Bellinger and Matt Mervis trades, the Cubs' roster is very thin at first base behind starter Michael Busch. Matt Trueblood wrote about the issue earlier today.  Turner would give the time a far more viable backup than they have on hand currently.

Turner is mostly a 1B/DH at this point in his career, so while his Baseball-Reference page says "Third Basemen" he would not be a threat to block Matt Shaw unless things went very very wrong for the rookie.  Turner would likely play 1B and DH primarily, and get just a smattering of playing time at 2nd and 3rd.

 

 

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I'll be ok if it a minor league deal, but knowing Hoyer it'll be a 2 year deal and they'll end up releasing him before July.

[Derwood]

Not super excited about signing Gary Gaetti

[squally1313]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I'll be ok if it a minor league deal, but knowing Hoyer it'll be a 2 year deal and they'll end up releasing him before July.

lol because that happened that one time two years ago right

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I'll be ok if it a minor league deal, but knowing Hoyer it'll be a 2 year deal and they'll end up releasing him before July.

On a one year deal he would be a solid bench bat. OPS+ of 114 last year. Not going to get a better back up first baseman than that. And not on a minor league contract. 

[BigbadB]

11 hours ago, Bertz said:

After the Cody Bellinger and Matt Mervis trades, the Cubs' roster is very thin at first base behind starter Michael Busch. Matt Trueblood wrote about the issue earlier today.  Turner would give the time a far more viable backup than they have on hand currently.

 

 

 

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Seems there would still be a gaping hole at backup 1b if they did sign Bregman. Who are the current candidates? Workman, Berti, Brujan, Shaw, Happ, Suzuki? You have about 10 professional games at 1b between them. I would certainly hate to see one of Suzuki or Hoerner moved for a backup 1b. I suppose if you could get a mid rotation starter and a good backup 1b, it might be worth considering. I'm just not fond of this weird Bregman love, which seems to require some other move to make it work.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, BigbadB said:

Seems there would still be a gaping hole at backup 1b if they did sign Bregman. Who are the current candidates? Workman, Berti, Brujan, Shaw, Happ, Suzuki? You have about 10 professional games at 1b between them. I would certainly hate to see one of Suzuki or Hoerner moved for a backup 1b. I suppose if you could get a mid rotation starter and a good backup 1b, it might be worth considering. I'm just not fond of this weird Bregman love, which seems to require some other move to make it work.

Isn’t this a thread about Turner? Shouldn’t the Bregman comments be in that threat? Let’s try to keep this straight. Seemed you were going there when you discussed backup first baseman, but yiu veered back to Bregman. Turner is obviously an option only if Bregman is not signed. He would be a solid back up 1st baseman plan. Maybe even a DH when the Cubs give an outfielder a day off and Suzuki moves to the outfield. Maybe even 10-12 games at 3rd. The biggest issue with Turner is the Cubs have to show him he will get playing time. 

Edited February 11, 2025 by Rcal10

[BigbadB]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Isn’t this a thread about Turner? Shouldn’t the Bregman comments be in that threat? Let’s try to keep this straight. Seemed you were going there when you discussed backup first baseman, but yiu veered back to Bregman. Turner is obviously an option only if Bregman is not signed. He would be a solid back up 1st baseman plan. Maybe even a DH when the Cubs give an outfielder a day off and Suzuki moves to the outfield. Maybe even 10-12 games at 3rd. The biggest issue with Turner is the Cubs have to show him he will get playing time. 

I didn't say it directly, but I think my point is that signing Turner now might be more sensible than playing out a Bregman deal that may never happen, and then you potentially lose out on a decent backup 1b option as well.

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

I didn't say it directly, but I think my point is that signing Turner now might be more sensible than playing out a Bregman deal that may never happen, and then you potentially lose out on a decent backup 1b option as well.

Ok, I actually agree. 👍 I think that is why Turner talk is coming out. I think all teams mentioned by Olney for Bregman are also in on Turner. I think the Turner talk is being mentioned to perhaps spur a decision by Bregman. If the Cubs could swing a trade for a pitcher who slots ahead of Taillon and sign Turner, IMO, that is a better team than one that signs Bregman and then trades Nico for a prospect. 

Edited February 11, 2025 by Rcal10

[JBears79]

Turner is a decent backup plan from Bregman. Give him a one year deal. Worst comes to worst we can cut him midseason.

[squally1313]

Turner is fine in a professional hitter type sense but he's also 40 and has had over 500 PAs every year for the last four seasons so even if he's willing to take on a pretty limited role, there's plenty of obvious red flags (wOBA trend, xwOBA trend, moving from consistent ABs to mostly pinch hitting, etc). 

I think I....just don't care about the lack of a true backup first baseman all that much? Like, the whole Bregman sequence of events ends with our backup shortstop likely being....Vidal Brujan? A guy who hasn't played about AA? Berti, who didn't play it once in 2024? And that seems far more difficult to fix than just finding some 28 year old AAAA dude to keep it warm while you spend a week getting Happ, Tucker, Caissie, Ballesteros, Canario, whoever (back) up to speed. 

Just go get a starter.

[Dfan25]

Considering the team backup at 1B as of now is Jon Berti , give me Turner . With that said , I don’t think Tuner will sign with the Cubs .

There isn’t much playing time available . They will have trouble finding someone due to this .

Edited February 11, 2025 by Dfan25

[We Got The Whole 9]

12 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

100%, am stunned that it is even a thing esp a 1B/DH. The current 1B one of the team’s best all around hitters! So is the starting DH! 

Now a backup C, 3B, or OF who happens to be able to spot at 1B? Sure. I imagine even someone off script like BJ Murray still can emerge anyway

More wider its very funny how like 40 YO FAs have taken over Cubslandia this offseason. Robertson and Turner, eh? Same base that craps their pants at pursuing Aaron Judge in FA because he’s uh tall or something lol. I’m all for keeping an open mind on ancient FAs ofc just find this verve very funny 

God would you stop putting the fanbase down in every damn post? It's February 11th, how many good options do you think are available? 

[squally1313]

15 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

100%, am stunned that it is even a thing esp a 1B/DH. The current 1B one of the team’s best all around hitters! So is the starting DH! 

Now a backup C, 3B, or OF who happens to be able to spot at 1B? Sure. I imagine even someone off script like BJ Murray still can emerge anyway

More wider its very funny how like 40 YO FAs have taken over Cubslandia this offseason. Robertson and Turner, eh? Same crowd that craps their pants at pursuing Aaron Judge in FA because he’s uh tall or something lol 

Yeah someone on the roster/next man up list has to be able to do this, a handful of them have before, theoretically Shaw won't be spiking every throw over to first like Morel was, the opposing lineups are going to be stocked with RHBs....it's fine. If you don't think a starter or Bregman is going to happen and you need to spend the money somewhere, fine, bring on Turner, he's essentially the next man up for any injury to the four outfielders (PCA might be a stretch) and Busch, maybe he can be a second hitting coach. But it's not some glaring hole to me.

As for the 40 year old FAs....eh. Cubs were linked to basically every free agent besides the ones at the top of the list, and they've shown a tendency to wait out the offseason, which I think they have in common with veteran free agents. You could put together a list of 35 year olds they were linked to (Eovaldi, Chafin, Canha, Boyd), a list of 30 year olds (Bregman, Bader, Polanco, Kelly, Moncada), etc. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

20 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m putting the whole org down! Cubslandia is the whole shebang from ownership to media to sure fans. Plus come on it *is* hilarious that 40 YO David Robertson or Justin Turner have more popular support for a pursuit than big ticket talent (picked Judge bc he was as unpopular as I suggest for literally the suggested reason)

Good options to backup 1B and DH? Not even so curious tbh. Edit: I suppose I’d pick Canha of the FAs 

FTR I agree. Backup 1B isn't on my radar. But guys who consistently hit above average are. I also like Canha, but Turner can still hit, has a ton of valuable experience. Personally I don't mind the idea but I'd prefer Canha.

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

FTR I agree. Backup 1B isn't on my radar. But guys who consistently hit above average are. I also like Canha, but Turner can still hit, has a ton of valuable experience. Personally I don't mind the idea but I'd prefer Canha.

Count me in on this way of thinking. Turner can still hit. I don’t care if he is 40. He posted OPS+ of 114 last year. I would take that on the bench. Canha would be fine as well. We are talking one year. Give me a guy who can hit with a little pop and better than league average. I also realize a bench isn’t needed that much with the Cubs basically having a set line up. But if they don’t get Bregman, after hopefully getting a pitcher for the rotation, a good bench bat is the next most important thing. 

[Bertz]

There's a tough line to walk with the bench.  You want to allow for the kids to be the fill-ins if there's a lengthy injury or extensive underperformance.  I think that's part of why versatility has been the focus to this point.

But at the same time, I don't think we can just punt on the bench.  Right now the bench is Kelly, Berti, and two of Canario/Brujan/Workman.  That group combined for 12 major league homeruns last year.  ZiPS does not project any of them to crack a 90 wRC+ this year.  It is an offensive black hole. 

Circling back to the kids, we don't have a good 1B candidate in the immediate term, certainly not a RHH one.  Caissie's not played the position in real games, Ballesteros would ideally focus on catching, and Jonny Long hasn't played a game at Iowa.  This team really needs an actual backup 1B, even if we'd quibble about who and how many resources to allocate to him.

So i understand wanting to hold resources back for bigger moves, and that's certainly why this hasn't already happened already.  You read the article and Turner's already got wife approval, this sounds fairly far along, and probably gets finalized within a day of Bregman's decision.

[KCCub]

Question for the group - has CC/Jed made any comments this off-season around if Busch will still be shielded against LHP? If they still plan on shielding him, then yea, put me in the group of being fine with a Turner signing to take 200 ABs at 1b and another 100-200 as a PH/DH for days off/injuries. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think a backup 1B is worth getting for a few different reasons.

• With Berti and Kelly as bench players not providing a ton of pop, a reasonable backup 1B gives you something you don't have from a PH perspective.
• While I'm bullish on Busch as an everyday 1B, he did fade pretty hard against LHP as the year went on(pre-ASB: 157 wRC+, 21%/8% K%/BB%; post-ASB: 56 wRC+, 28%/7% K%/BB%).  You don't want Berti to be plan A for soaking up those at bats, especially if he's also hedging Shaw
• None of the prospect bats are a clean fit.  None of them have spent significant defensive time at 1B, and Caissie and Ballesteros are LHH

[squally1313]

Conceding the point on Busch potentially being Bad against LHPs but not sure if you want to totally take away that part of his development. Long term (or at least for the next two years) having a dedicated DH in Suzuki and a short side platoon first baseman on the roster makes you a little inflexible. 

The guys making up the bench on Opening Day, as presently constructed, are absolutely not great. But the league wide average on pinch hitting last year was an 83 wRC, so not sure I'd say it's uniquely a black hole as much as it is a league wide black hole. Further, outside of an injury to Amaya and maybe Nico or PCA, none of those guys would be named the starter in the event of a long term injury. The absolute maximized Cubs roster on Opening Day has a bench of like, Kelly, Caissie, Berti, and Ballesteros. but that's just not practical given the opportunities available.

I think the next up first basemen in the system aren't Caissie/Long/Ballesteros but rather Happ and Tucker. 

 

[ryanrc]

Here is why 1) I used to want the guy, 2)would be "ok" with it, 3) but really don't want Turner, and 4) teally don't care about Backup 1b right now. 


1) I wanted Turner when he was available, 2 years running. I get your interest in the guy, as his bat has been unusually reliable for a long time. Still, the clear trend is down towards a season like Andrew McCutcheon, who only is the fulltime DH at Pittsburgh because of his huge hometown draw.

 2) I would be solidly "ok" with it if we had a camp injury to Busch or Shaw and he was available still. But as a full season roster spot just in case? Nope.

3) Turner had a meh season in 2024... he was very close to league average. But his glove has declined to pretty much ONLY FIRST BASE. He's a deep liability anywhere else. We dont need him at DH as we have Suzuki. Turner's bat is on a current trend to be NO BETTTER THAN Canario or Caissie anyhow. That's not exciting. and blocks a roster spot for younger guys on the hope he has a last hurrah. This usually doesnt work out at age 40+, especially at a ballpark where he projects to be substantially worse than his last two gigs.   

4) I really don't care about a 1b backup for many reasons. Its a low value glove position, so mistakes arent too costly over a short stretch of gameplay. Theres a short list of special polays that an experienced Rizzo type can pull off that steals an out or run, that a Berti can't figure out - which is why Berti was suitable when Rizzo was out. Second, good defenders can play it in a pinch. Happ, Suzuki, Ballesteros, or Berti can handle a Busch 10 to 30 day IL stint and do fine. Shoot, even Owen cCaissie would give me more to be excited about- give him some minor league reps and be ready. In fact, I think Caissie projects at that spot. I've played first myself, and I can assure you that any serious defender can handle it. It is the least "niche" position on the field, and 90 percent of the job can be learned in a matter of weeks if youre already a MLB caliber fielder. puit your foot on the bag, catch the ball, and hope there's no weird funky unusual bunt or popup situation. Ian Happ or Berti can do it WELL guys. 

Furthermore, if he was hurt for longer than that, the Cubs could Trade for one or even pick up a sidelined free agent. Its a position with a large surplus of guys looking for a job right now, and a dozen serious trade candidates. Finally, its rare that a prime age first baseman is ever "out for the season" anyhow. The odds are firmly in our favor. Again Turner would be a great option if and only if we needed a full time guy there to cover for a season ending injury.  

My pick for the short term 10 day il guy on the roster is Berti. If he commits 1 error, and misses 2 pickoff opportunities in 10 games, i really dont EFFING CARE.
I'm more concerned, honestly, with adding a first baseman for AA Tennessee. I think Long is getting the AAA promotion, and by midseason may be able to cover the injury backup job. But we really dont have a guy to cover Long's backside, which means we need another hot prospect further down there. 

My idea is we pick up a guy off roster cuts, as the options percolate, and aim for the youngest, high upside guy we can find in the wreckage. . 
 

Edited February 12, 2025 by ryanrc

[BigbadB]

4 hours ago, ryanrc said:

4) I really don't care about a 1b backup for many reasons. Its a low value glove position, so mistakes arent too costly over a short stretch of gameplay. 
 

I think you are undervaluing the position way too much. It's one thing to have an average fielding guy at 1st. It's another to put guys out there that just don't play 1b. There is way more going on at that position than you are letting on. There are pick offs from the pitcher and catcher. There are throws from 3rd and short that are hoppers, or off base. There are places to be moving to when runners are in motion. There's places to be when a runner doesn't take off as the pitch is delivered. There are a lot of foul ball plays that require an ability to avoid injury making plays on balls around the dugout. Bunts. Knowing when to take your foot off the base to chase an errant throw to prevent extra bases, etc...

The biggest thing to me is being a legit ball retriever from your all gold glove ability infield. Reducing their defensive play ability with an inexperienced guy you are just throwing out there because "anyone can play 1b" changes them to no longer gold glovers.

I'm not really clamoring for Turner because I'm enamored with him in some way. I just don't see how you can be happy with the current roster as it's currently constructed, whether you add Bregman or not. You need an experienced backup 1b, and there is no one in AA or AAA that qualifies as that, let alone the roster.

Everywhere else outside of SS if you traded Hoerner, there are backup options in the minors, And that's why trading Hoerner because they "signed Bregman" is a big no for me. Even signing Bregman means you still have to make room for a backup 1b regardless. Not sure how they plan to fit all that in their budget, but it absolutely needs to happen.

[Jason Ross]

I know that everyone has some concerns about backup 1b currently, but I am going to assume that the Cubs are less worried than we are with a Caissie/Ballesteros situation arising than many here are, and the thing I'll point to is Michael Busch. When the Cubs traded for Busch, it was pretty clear that he wasn't really going to supplant Hoerner at 2b, and he probably wasn't up to snuff for 3b. We all agreed - 1b was his best home. One thing I didn't see people pointing out last year, is that through his MiLB career, Busch had started just 17 games at 1b. By the end of the year, he was among the better defensive 1b in baseball. 

That doesn't mean to say that Owen Caissie or Moises Ballesteros will take to it like a fish in water, either, but that I do run a bit less worried about either of those guys getting the spot. Both handle positions in which you can't have stone hands - RF and C. 

That isn't saying I wouldn't welcome a Justin Turner type either - I think, more importantly than simply playing 1b, he does something the team doesn't really have a lot of: RHH with power. Kevin Alcantara or Alexander Canario might fit that void, but I for one really question Canario's hit tool and if it's MLB capable, and the other still probably needs to be in Triple-A over being a bench player. Turner could help fill that role. 

On the bench in general - I think we have to remember "this is a benefit of having a bunch of top-100 types this close to the MLB:". Any 3+ week injury can be covered with a top-100 type outside of maybe shortstop...but I kind of think the Cubs plan there is Matt Shaw (and then allowing Berti or Triantos to fill in the created gap) if they were to deal Hoerner. Even as is, with Hoerner coming off an arm surgery, I'm not sure how capable he is to handle a more demanding arm position like SS in the event of a May injury to Swanson. But realistically, the bench probably stays "the bench" on any longer term spot. It's why I kind of settle on "get me one more guy", particularly a RHH with some power, to fill it up. And even in the event of a Hoerner trade, I'll probably be pretty okay with the group.

[ryanrc]

2 hours ago, BigbadB said:

I think you are undervaluing the position way too much. It's one thing to have an average fielding guy at 1st. It's another to put guys out there that just don't play 1b. There is way more going on at that position than you are letting on. There are pick offs from the pitcher and catcher. There are throws from 3rd and short that are hoppers, or off base. There are places to be moving to when runners are in motion. There's places to be when a runner doesn't take off as the pitch is delivered. There are a lot of foul ball plays that require an ability to avoid injury making plays on balls around the dugout. Bunts. Knowing when to take your foot off the base to chase an errant throw to prevent extra bases, etc...

1) Meh. all the things you describe is hard if you're in high school, but not hard for Ian Happ or Jon Berti. These are consummate professionals with elite glove and baseball IQ who play almost every position good enough for gap coverage, and such minute errors won't cost the cubs a season anymore than playing crappy gloves at 3b would. There's a reason most teams dont have a roster spot dedicated to a backup first baseman with a long resume at the job- good players are RARELY disasters at that job for a small sample size. The Yankees ignored your advice in the postseason and almost won a world series. And Berti did great. no problems.  And Berti is on our roster. and that guy has amazing coaches behind him who think he's better at the job than you may think. Craig Counsell has it under control here- its a team full of amazing fielders, and the thought that none of them can do the job for a a mere 5-10 games is silly. 

3) as I said, if you truly need a guy for more than 10 games at first, there's no shortage of first basemen to be found. The position is fairly cheap these days. Theres a long list of platoon type and multipositional trade candidates, as well as  AAA guys out there. Counsell Woundn't have let Mervis go if he was a real rare asset we needed to hoard. 

4) This is REALLY a conversation about roster spots, and wasting them on guys who wont get any at bats anyhow. Youre' hyperfocusing on the theory that we need a GREAT first baseman sitting on the bench, waiting for his callup, in the majors. If we had a 350 million dollar budget, sure. But don't waste a critical roster spot when you don't actually want to use that backup first baseman for any other purpose than first base. Every other player on the 26 man is STRICTLY BETTER at what they do than Justin Turner at their day to day job in 2025. Berti is better at 3rd, Suzuki is strictly better at DH, and no, Turner wont play at 2nd when Triantos is the emergency option there.  Why waste the spot for a guy who is strictly inferior in all situations than what we already have? Thats' the prime story here. 

5) Just to make my point clear: I'll bet you $1000 that Dansby Swanson is a better first baseman than Pete Alonso with only 30 days of practice. Thats how much of a premium we put on defensive jobs up the middle. If Busch can play 1b, Swanson can do it in his sleep on pure intuition. He's one of the best athletes in the WORLD. He's a FRIGGING GENIUS. He can figure out first base. Not that I'm arguing we should put him there, but Ian Happ is likely a better 1B than Michael Busch by the end of 1 full season. AS I said, Ive played the job, and you're exaggerating its difficulty.  Of all sports positions ive every played, it was by far the easiest for an intuitive athlete. AS Berti said, He picked Rizzo's brain for help and advice on strategies, but many of those things were "stretch goals" rather than just "doing the job ok"

 

Edited February 12, 2025 by ryanrc

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, ryanrc said:

4) This is REALLY a conversation about roster spots, and wasting them on guys who wont get any at bats anyhow. Youre' hyperfocusing on the theory that we need a GREAT first baseman sitting on the bench, waiting for his callup, in the majors. If we had a 350 million dollar budget, sure. But don't waste a critical roster spot when you don't actually want to use that backup first baseman for any other purpose than first base. Every other player on the 26 man is STRICTLY BETTER at what they do than Justin Turner at their day to day job in 2025. Berti is better at 3rd, Suzuki is strictly better at DH, and no, Turner wont play at 2nd when Triantos is the emergency option there.  Why waste the spot for a guy who is strictly inferior in all situations than what we already have? Thats' the prime story here. 

Justin Turner has a 118 wRC+ the last three years, and ZiPS projects him for a 112 this season.  That would make him the Cubs' 5th best hitter.  None of the other bench options project to even 90.  The projected offensive difference between Turner and Berti (our best offensive bench player currently!) is the same as last year's difference between Ian Happ and Bryce Harper.

This also grossly underestimates how much playing time reserve players get.  Even players who never hit the IL still miss ~20 games a year on average to normal rest.  So while I'm in total agreement that Turner is primarily a 1B/DH at this point, there are ~80 starts to be had backing up 1B/DH/LF/RF (the latter two indirectly through Suzuki moving out of DH) even in a fantasy world where no one gets injured enough to hit the IL this upcoming season.