Non-Soto FA thread

[Tryptamine]

47 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Because those guys can also slot into the BP.

Maybe I'm alone in this, but I'm not going to be mad if the Cubs bump Assad out of the rotation because they got 2 better pitchers.

I don't particularly want Assad in the rotation either, but with the types of guys they're likely looking at in FA at this point Manaea/Bieber/Gibson/etc. are they really enough of an upgrade to use 15M of the 50M in payroll for that upgrade? 

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I don't particularly want Assad in the rotation either, but with the types of guys they're likely looking at in FA at this point Manaea/Bieber/Gibson/etc. are they really enough of an upgrade to use 15M of the 50M in payroll for that upgrade? 

Bieber probably wont be available to start the year. But lets assume they trade for someone like a Crochet and sign that patented rehab assignment pitcher like Bieber to a 2 year deal. Do I think those are enough of an upgrade? Absolutely. I dont trust Assad at all. His baseball savant page is dark blue and then bright red in run value. I dont trust a guy living on the bounce of the ball to build his worth.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Cuzi said:

Bieber probably wont be available to start the year. But lets assume they trade for someone like a Crochet and sign that patented rehab assignment pitcher like Bieber to a 2 year deal. Do I think those are enough of an upgrade? Absolutely. I dont trust Assad at all. His baseball savant page is dark blue and then bright red in run value. I dont trust a guy living on the bounce of the ball to build his worth.

But it's not just Assad. It's also Wicks. By mid season it could also be Horton or Birdsell Even if we label Brown a reliver going forwards there are multiple options that don't take almost 1/3 of the available money.

[Cuzi]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

But it's not just Assad. It's also Wicks. By mid season it could also be Horton or Birdsell Even if we label Brown a reliver going forwards there are multiple options that don't take almost 1/3 of the available money.

So?

Horton cant stay healthy and has only pitched 18 innings in AAA and was terrible. Wicks hasnt been very good. Brown was a projected reliever in the minors. And who is penciling in Birdsell in the rotation?

Edited November 25, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Bieber probably wont be available to start the year. But lets assume they trade for someone like a Crochet and sign that patented rehab assignment pitcher like Bieber to a 2 year deal. Do I think those are enough of an upgrade? Absolutely. I dont trust Assad at all. His baseball savant page is dark blue and then bright red in run value. I dont trust a guy living on the bounce of the ball to build his worth.

I’m fine with this. Kind of what I was talking about. Get a solid pitcher (doesn’t have to be Crochet) and then add Bieber. That works for me. 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

I’m fine with this. Kind of what I was talking about. Get a solid pitcher (doesn’t have to be Crochet) and then add Bieber. That works for me. 

God we really love mediocre don't we.

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

God we really love mediocre don't we.

I mean... you are fighting for a rotation spot for Assad and Wicks. What are we talking about here?

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Cuzi said:

I mean... you are fighting for a rotation spot for Assad and Wicks. What are we talking about here?

A team that might actually win more than 84+ games and make the play offs without hoping for a lot of positive variance to do so.

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

A team that might actually win more than 84+ games and make the play offs without hoping for a lot of positive variance to do so.

And where do you plan on significantly upgrading this roster to do that outside of the pitching? In case you missed it, every single spot on the field is spoken for.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Cuzi said:

And where do you plan on significantly upgrading this roster to do that outside of the pitching? In case you missed it, every single spot on the field is spoken for.

Which comes back to my original point that missing on Kikuchi sucks, especially if they intend to add 2 SP. 

edit: We more or less know they aren't in on Burnes/Fried/Snell. I'd be highly surprised if they were in on Flaherty.  That meansif they're shopping in FA for a pitcher, they're shopping for a guy in the back half of the rotation unless a miracle of all miracles happens and Sasaki picks the Cubs.

Edited November 25, 2024 by Tryptamine

[Bertz]

18 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Which comes back to my original point that missing on Kikuchi sucks, especially if they intend to add 2 SP. 

edit: We more or less know they aren't in on Burnes/Fried/Snell. I'd be highly surprised if they were in on Flaherty.  That meansif they're shopping in FA for a pitcher, they're shopping for a guy in the back half of the rotation unless a miracle of all miracles happens and Sasaki picks the Cubs.

I think you're overrating how much separation there is between these guys.  I was a Kikuchi guy too but he's 34 and as recently as July wasn't viewed much differently than Nick Pivetta.

[Tryptamine]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

I think you're overrating how much separation there is between these guys.  I was a Kikuchi guy too but he's 34 and as recently as July wasn't viewed much differently than Nick Pivetta.

It's the upside that I think is  a tier or two above the others and upside it what the rotation needs.

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

It's the upside that I think is  a tier or two above the others and upside it what the rotation needs.

But how is trading for Crochet and then adding someone like Bieber aiming for mediocre? Even signing Eovaldi and Bieber is better than giving the #5 spot to Assad all year. Not sure I understand your POV. Sure, I would love Snell, Fried or Nurnes. Love if they were in Soto too. But it is their choice to not be. So how do we get to 80 wins? 

[Bertz]

15 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

It's the upside that I think is  a tier or two above the others and upside it what the rotation needs.

I hate appeal to authority but I do think it's telling that the Angels nabbed him on a fairly reasonable contract and not a smart team.  It says something about how sustainable what he did in Houston is viewed IMO.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

But how is trading for Crochet and then adding someone like Bieber aiming for mediocre? Even signing Eovaldi and Bieber is better than giving the #5 spot to Assad all year. Not sure I understand your POV. Sure, I would love Snell, Fried or Nurnes. Love if they were in Soto too. But it is their choice to not be. So how do we get to 80 wins? 

I don't think going after Crochet is at all mediocre, but seeing that they've been almost entirely unlinked to him and Jed being afraid of big moves, I think it's incredibly unlikely.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Bertz said:

I hate appeal to authority but I do think it's telling that the Angels nabbed him on a fairly reasonable contract and not a smart team.  It says something about how sustainable what he did in Houston is viewed IMO.

Yeah he's not a 2.70 era guy, but his peripherals suggest his a 3.2-3.5 guy.

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I hate appeal to authority but I do think it's telling that the Angels nabbed him on a fairly reasonable contract and not a smart team.  It says something about how sustainable what he did in Houston is viewed IMO.

Mike Petriello hit on this a bit. Basically, that while there were some good things the Astros got Kikuchi to do, some things like his barrel rate and hard contact stayed the same, but his BABIP dropped .100 points. Probably requires a good defense behind him to make that happen. 

He's a pretty good pitcher but I'm not overly worried about not signing him. Especially if the Cubs are earmarking that $20m as the "needle-mover" money they can spend...I'm cool with it being some one else. I wouldn't have hated that contract either, only that I think it's kind of "meh, on to the next" spot for me.

[Outshined_One]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

But it's not just Assad. It's also Wicks. By mid season it could also be Horton or Birdsell Even if we label Brown a reliver going forwards there are multiple options that don't take almost 1/3 of the available money.

We said fairly similar things going into this past season when the injury bug took down Horton, Wicks, and Brown for extended stretches of the season.

Don't get me wrong, I really want those guys to flourish, but recent history tells us the Cubs should be adding depth to their rotation since injuries tend to beget more injuries with young pitchers.

[Tryptamine]

31 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

We said fairly similar things going into this past season when the injury bug took down Horton, Wicks, and Brown for extended stretches of the season.

Don't get me wrong, I really want those guys to flourish, but recent history tells us the Cubs should be adding depth to their rotation since injuries tend to beget more injuries with young pitchers.

I have no issue with depth, I have an issue with dropping 1/3 of the offseason money on depth

[Stratos]

They couldn't really look to add Soto if they couldn't find interest to move Bellinger.

I'm not really concerned about the tight purse strings of Jed ....yet.  Could be just trying to maximize dollars towards actual good players, which I've been clamoring for years for.   But then we've already dropped a million+ for a negative WAR catcher who's out of options that another team DFA'd.

We'll see at the end of Jan.  No need to panic on every move or non-move.  We're not going to sign every SP so Kikuchi is just one of many.  Reducing payroll after a 83 win season isn't good business.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

They couldn't really look to add Soto if they couldn't find interest to move Bellinger.

I'm not really concerned about the tight purse strings of Jed ....yet.  Could be just trying to maximize dollars towards actual good players, which I've been clamoring for years for.   But then we've already dropped a million+ for a negative WAR catcher who's out of options that another team DFA'd.

We'll see at the end of Jan.  No need to panic on every move or non-move.  We're not going to sign every SP so Kikuchi is just one of many.  Reducing payroll after a 83 win season isn't good business.

Honestly, with or without Bellinger they weren’t going after Soto. And spending $1M on a back up catcher is hardly a big deal. And, he might not even be on the major league roster,’so he would only make $400,000. 

[BigbadB]

I just really don't understand the idea of trading Bellinger. Who replaces his production? Yes, he makes more than his production dictates, but I honestly don't believe they replace his production in trade. His versatility in the field adds to his value. Who is his likely replacement if they do trade him? 

83 wins last year despite an awful, awful, awful bullpen for a better part of the season. 

Improve catcher, bench and pitching staff and see where it takes you. It's not an ideal offense, but the 50m in available cash can easily improve this roster enough to be playoff caliber if you work the phones trading prospects for SP and picking up more reliable bench and bullpen arms via free agency.

This team died last year because of the bullpen, lack of production at 3b and bench in general. It also didn't help that Hendricks got as many starts as he did, as much as we all wanted him to find a new groove.

I think there is reason to expect or even assume that some of these guys will be better in 2025 than they were in 2024. PCA and Busch with some major league time under their belts. Down years from Paredes, Swanson, Hoerner and Bellinger. You can't assume they will all flutter again in 2025.

Overall, you have some very talented guys in the minors knocking on the door now, so improve in the most obvious ways necessary to improve this team where they are the weakest, and stop the nonsense about trading Bellinger. I sense that a Bellinger trade will only hamper their chances to being relevant in 2025, because I don't think Jed finds quality replacement production, and he'll likely still be either paying part of Bellinger's salary, or taking back another one that won't improve the team at all.

[CubinNY]

38 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

I just really don't understand the idea of trading Bellinger. Who replaces his production? Yes, he makes more than his production dictates, but I honestly don't believe they replace his production in trade. His versatility in the field adds to his value. Who is his likely replacement if they do trade him? 

83 wins last year despite an awful, awful, awful bullpen for a better part of the season. 

Improve catcher, bench and pitching staff and see where it takes you. It's not an ideal offense, but the 50m in available cash can easily improve this roster enough to be playoff caliber if you work the phones trading prospects for SP and picking up more reliable bench and bullpen arms via free agency.

This team died last year because of the bullpen, lack of production at 3b and bench in general. It also didn't help that Hendricks got as many starts as he did, as much as we all wanted him to find a new groove.

I think there is reason to expect or even assume that some of these guys will be better in 2025 than they were in 2024. PCA and Busch with some major league time under their belts. Down years from Paredes, Swanson, Hoerner and Bellinger. You can't assume they will all flutter again in 2025.

Overall, you have some very talented guys in the minors knocking on the door now, so improve in the most obvious ways necessary to improve this team where they are the weakest, and stop the nonsense about trading Bellinger. I sense that a Bellinger trade will only hamper their chances to being relevant in 2025, because I don't think Jed finds quality replacement production, and he'll likely still be either paying part of Bellinger's salary, or taking back another one that won't improve the team at all.

They want to reallocate the money toward pitching for reasons (they think their league average or slightly below offense is good). Who is to say the wind blowing in isn't the new normal with climate change? But I get it. 

The problem for Jed is that Bellinger will likely not have a market until Soto signs. So, by the time he's moved the pitching they are looking for may not be available in a trade or free agency. Jed 3D chessed himself into a nice box. 

[Rcal10]

42 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

They want to reallocate the money toward pitching for reasons (they think their league average or slightly below offense is good). Who is to say the wind blowing in isn't the new normal with climate change? But I get it. 

The problem for Jed is that Bellinger will likely not have a market until Soto signs. So, by the time he's moved the pitching they are looking for may not be available in a trade or free agency. Jed 3D chessed himself into a nice box. 

Guess so. But as bigbadb said, they don’t really have to trade him. Yes, if they got equal value on the pitching side, it could make sense. But really it isn’t the worst scenario if Bellinger is in the team next year. 

[chibears55]

6 hours ago, CubinNY said:

They want to reallocate the money toward pitching for reasons (they think their league average or slightly below offense is good). Who is to say the wind blowing in isn't the new normal with climate change? But I get it. 

The problem for Jed is that Bellinger will likely not have a market until Soto signs. So, by the time he's moved the pitching they are looking for may not be available in a trade or free agency. Jed 3D chessed himself into a nice box. 

Jed was hoping and praying Bellinger opted out so they could likely just use his money to add 2 mid players. 

Now they'll likely trade him for a couple of prospects, but because it might take time to move him, they may be looking at the lessers of the mid players in FA as you said.