Soto free agency thread

[Irrelevant Dude]

34 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Cubs apparently not showing interest in Soto so far.

He doesn't meet the criteria of improving "on the margins."

[CubinNY]

22 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

He doesn't meet the criteria of improving "on the margins."

Pefect. 

[UMFan83]

Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Soto. How many MVP candidates in their prime do you need on your roster?

[Rex Buckingham]

[Bertz]

Gut feeling: The Dodgers-Soto stuff doesn't have a lot of legs and it's mostly Boras using them as a boogeyman so neither NYC team gets comfortable thinking it's realistically a two horse race.

I'd peg them for something more like Willy Adames, re-signing Teoscar, and a pitcher

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/juan-soto-rumors-red-sox-yankees-blue-jays.html

More smoke towards the idea that the Dodgers are only in these stories because the league needs them to be. Its funny to note that all three of their major ML FA signings under Friedman - Ohtani, Freeman, and Yamamoto - are highly circumstantial. The first two feature heavy deferrals on top of being spread over years, massively shrinking their real $ worth, and the latter is a surefire 26 YO TOR SP who couldn’t beat Cole’s half decade old FA contract because foreigner 

I think he beat it by a million dollars.

[JHBulls]

 

Rickett’s and Hoyer

[Tryptamine]

I guess I wouldn't be super shocked since they were supposedly in on Ohtani until the end, but I'd still be surprised

https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-rumors

Quote

SNY’s Andy Martino reported Monday that “there is a widespread belief among bidders that Toronto will come in with the highest offer.”

 

[CubinNY]

I think it depends on how much Toronto is over other bids and assurances they can get that winning is a sustainable process. 

If I'm at the top of the market, I want the money, but I want to know that the organization is interested in winning beyond whatever they are doing with me.

I'd probably never sign with the Cubs, not that they would be interested in that type of game-changing potential. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Toronto probably needs to be a fair amount clear of the 2nd best offer to be the actual best offer in monetary terms.  The Athletic did a pretty deep article on Canada's tax structure, that while it focuses a lot on bonuses(which don't have to be a big part of a Soto deal), it also points out that several Blue Jays are fighting the Canadian government over substantial tax increases in reassessments: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5647166/2024/07/23/nhl-canada-tax-dispute/

[JHBulls]

4 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I guess I wouldn't be super shocked since they were supposedly in on Ohtani until the end, but I'd still be surprised

https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-rumors

 

You know that Scott Boras has definitely crunched the numbers in his head and realised that last quarter’s dildo and BDSM sales will cover the cost of whatever millions is left on the table if Juan Soto doesn’t take the highest offer.  

[Bertz]

Rosenthal's article this evening says the expectation is this gets done before the end of the winter meetings, with a decent chance at it happening before they start.

[Stratos]

10 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I think it depends on how much Toronto is over other bids and assurances they can get that winning is a sustainable process. 

If I'm at the top of the market, I want the money, but I want to know that the organization is interested in winning beyond whatever they are doing with me.

I'd probably never sign with the Cubs, not that they would be interested in that type of game-changing potential. 

I've lived in the city.  Toronto has fickle fans (and the ballpark sucks) but when the team is winning the fans come out in droves and can pay for substantial payroll.  In 2016 and 2017 (their last ALCS appearance and Bautista bat-flip era) they had the highest attendance in the AL.  The stadium seats 50k fans.

They're also Canada's only team and all their games are nationally broadcast (the tv channel owns the team) so they can get a lot of TV viewers.  They'd be smart to invest in a star player, especially with Vlad/Bichette on their way out).  Most Jays fans are casual baseball fans.  Ohtani would have been huge for them.

Edited December 4, 2024 by Stratos

[imb]

soto in toronto feels cool for some reason

[Stratos]

Something to consider is that the Cubs met with Craig Counsell last offseason in total secrecy until that signing was announced.

Given all the rumors about trades to free up payroll there is a chance they've met with Soto and are trying to find a way to make it happen on the payroll.

[Dfan25]

Just now, Stratos said:

Something to consider is that the Cubs met with Craig Counsell last offseason in total secrecy until that signing was announced.

Given all the rumors about trades to free up payroll there is a chance they've met with Soto and are trying to find a way to make it happen on the payroll.

🤣🤣

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Something to consider is that the Cubs met with Craig Counsell last offseason in total secrecy until that signing was announced.

Given all the rumors about trades to free up payroll there is a chance they've met with Soto and are trying to find a way to make it happen on the payroll.

No, the Cubs are not secretly meeting with Soto. That isn’t happening. 

[chopsx9]

On 12/3/2024 at 4:31 PM, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Toronto probably needs to be a fair amount clear of the 2nd best offer to be the actual best offer in monetary terms.  The Athletic did a pretty deep article on Canada's tax structure, that while it focuses a lot on bonuses(which don't have to be a big part of a Soto deal), it also points out that several Blue Jays are fighting the Canadian government over substantial tax increases in reassessments: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5647166/2024/07/23/nhl-canada-tax-dispute/

The Jays would certainly have an equalization pay plan that would neutralize any tax differences.  The players who are fighting about their taxes are all concerning schemes - certainly presented to them by their tax lawyers/accountants - to avoid paying taxes by funneling money into specific investment vehicles that the tax authorities have called horsefeathers on.  Not to say that tax situation isn't more complicated but regardless of whether they are in the US or Canada their tax situation is complicated - they have to file tax returns in each state they play in not to mention the European and Mexican games that are getting more common - so they all have teams of accountants to sort this stuff out.  None of these guys are downloading Turbo Tax.

[Bertz]

This is feeling like it ends tomorrow

 

[Rob]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This is feeling like it ends tomorrow

 

It can't end until there's an unverified sighting of Soto in the wrong location.

[Tryptamine]

Remember when just a few months ago people were saying 500M. I definitely saw 600M coming, can't say I saw 700M though.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Isnt Heyman on the Boras corp payroll? I wouldn’t believe what he says

[Cuzi]

If $700M is the number for Soto then there is probably a hefty amount of deferrals in the deal, just like Ohtani. Ohtani got $46M AAV after you account for deferrals. He's put up 4 straight seasons of 8 fWAR and just had 9.1 fWAR as a pure hitter. Juan Soto just had his first ever 7+ season in the most picture perfect left handed ballpark in baseball. Teams are signing guys through age 40 so we are talking probably 14 years on the contract and to get to $700M thats 50 a year. I just dont see how you can value him so much more than Ohtani unless he also has a horsefeathers ton of deferrals.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

45 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

If $700M is the number for Soto then there is probably a hefty amount of deferrals in the deal, just like Ohtani. Ohtani got $46M AAV after you account for deferrals. He's put up 4 straight seasons of 8 fWAR and just had 9.1 fWAR as a pure hitter. Juan Soto just had his first ever 7+ season in the most picture perfect left handed ballpark in baseball. Teams are signing guys through age 40 so we are talking probably 14 years on the contract and to get to $700M thats 50 a year. I just dont see how you can value him so much more than Ohtani unless he also has a horsefeathers ton of deferrals.

Age matters a lot, and not just with the length of the deal.  Soto will play all year at 26 while Ohtani turned 30 before the All-Star break in the first year of his deal

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Age matters a lot, and not just with the length of the deal.  Soto will play all year at 26 while Ohtani turned 30 before the All-Star break in the first year of his deal

Age is accounted for in the length of the deal.