Soto free agency thread

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Dodgers interested in Soto. I hope they get him. 

It wouldn't matter if the Dodgers had Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, and Soto in the same lineup.  We have Ian Happ.

[NorthsideAvenger]

17 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Dodgers interested in Soto. I hope they get him. 

 

If the Dodgers get Soto, then my interests in MLB will be as low as the NBA. 

[Bertz]

*psssssttttt* Every big market name is going to be rumored tied to him

[LBiittner]

16 hours ago, Stratos said:

It wouldn't matter if the Dodgers had Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, and Soto in the same lineup.  We have Ian Happ.

My guess, jed signs rizzo to a 2 year ($13m per) deal to placate the fans for that feel good  offseason moment. And then parade him around at cubbie-con as well as radio engagements and other public appearances joined by Clark- the-Cub mascot to bang the publicity drum. All the while, Jed will claim he got us that power hitter we've been lusting for.

Gosh, I hope I'm wrong. 

[squally1313]

24 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

My guess, jed signs rizzo to a 2 year ($13m per) deal to placate the fans for that feel good  offseason moment. And then parade him around at cubbie-con as well as radio engagements and other public appearances joined by Clark- the-Cub mascot to bang the publicity drum. All the while, Jed will claim he got us that power hitter we've been lusting for.

Gosh, I hope I'm wrong. 

is that your actual guess

[LBiittner]

5 hours ago, squally1313 said:

is that your actual guess

I'm crystal balling. By signing Riz, Busch becomes the Ben Zobrist of 2025

 

[Irrelevant Dude]

3 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I'm crystal balling. By signing Riz, Busch becomes the Ben Zobrist of 2025

 

Who does Rizzo become?  The Eric Hosmer of 2025?  I love the guy, but he brings absolutely nothing to the Cubs at this point in his career.

[squally1313]

25 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I'm crystal balling. By signing Riz, Busch becomes the Ben Zobrist of 2025

 

You really think so negatively of Jed Hoyer, who in his first major moves as GM sold off basically whatever was left of the 2016 team (correctly), that you think the Yankees would decline what is essentially an $11m option (either paying him $17m or buying him out for $6m), and then we would come in and sign him for more money, and a whole additional year, and then would point to him as our power bat (2024 slugging: .335, below average hitter the last two years), so that he could make Michael Busch, who played all of 18 innings anywhere besides first base last year, our 'Ben Zobrist of 2025'? You really think that's his plan?

[LBiittner]

52 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Who does Rizzo become?  The Eric Hosmer of 2025?  I love the guy, but he brings absolutely nothing to the Cubs at this point in his career.

 

28 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

You really think so negatively of Jed Hoyer, who in his first major moves as GM sold off basically whatever was left of the 2016 team (correctly), that you think the Yankees would decline what is essentially an $11m option (either paying him $17m or buying him out for $6m), and then we would come in and sign him for more money, and a whole additional year, and then would point to him as our power bat (2024 slugging: .335, below average hitter the last two years), so that he could make Michael Busch, who played all of 18 innings anywhere besides first base last year, our 'Ben Zobrist of 2025'? You really think that's his plan?

While taking significant roster space and valuable playing time, neither Hosmer nor Mancini had anything left in their sacks. Both were signed by jed iirc.

It's jeds intelligent spending. Riz at $13m for 2025 costs half as much as a good player. It's the General Manager version of the Hail Mary. And after Sunday I learned to believe in Hail Mary full of Grace.

Besides, jeds only other affordable power option is Goldschmidt. 

Edited October 29, 2024 by LBiittner

[CubinNY]

Phillies check in on Soto. All the usual suspects and nonsuspects (including the midmarket Cubs). 

[Jason Ross]

13 hours ago, LBiittner said:

 

While taking significant roster space and valuable playing time, neither Hosmer nor Mancini had anything left in their sacks. Both were signed by jed iirc.

It's jeds intelligent spending. Riz at $13m for 2025 costs half as much as a good player. It's the General Manager version of the Hail Mary. And after Sunday I learned to believe in Hail Mary full of Grace.

Besides, jeds only other affordable power option is Goldschmidt. 

I have my doubts and concerns over whether or not Jed Hoyer has enough willingness to make the big move happen, be it a trade where you take a bit of a prospect gut punch to get a really good player, or the major monetary investment on a free agent pushing $200+m on a longer term deal (thinking over seven). But I'm not overly concerned with him cheaping out or being uncreative in the mid-market. He pulled in Michael Busch last year as a creative first base solution and was willing to go with Imanaga in the midfield of the starting pitching options. The Cubs didn't top the SS market, but the Swanson deal has been successful despite the dollar signs and Taillon's contract hasn't been a hindrance. 

It's probably fair to point out some of the super-cheapo options the Cubs went with didn't always work great. Hosmer was probably always destined to fail and Mancini was a bust. Villar and Simmons didn't turn into fun trade pieces. But I think those were always seen as "lottery tickets to sell" versus "players to win with". Generally speaking, I think he's done fairly decent in term of those.

So in the end, I don't think Jed Hoyer, who has to know his job is definitely not guaranteed for 2026 (with no contract extension given yet and the lack of playoff appearances) will go with the "sentimental" choice as his offensive addition. I'm at least confident that if the Cubs don't go big-game-fishing that they will probably do something more substantial. It might be a Joc Pederson + platoon guy, or a Danny Jansen thing, but it'll be over Rizzo.

[CubinNY]

Rizzo is not a fit for this team. Although I loved him while he was with the Cubs, he's redundant and less qualified for any position. 

[squally1313]

There's a non-zero chance tonight might be Rizzo's last professional baseball game. 

[LBiittner]

41 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I have my doubts and concerns over whether or not Jed Hoyer has enough willingness to make the big move happen, be it a trade where you take a bit of a prospect gut punch to get a really good player, or the major monetary investment on a free agent pushing $200+m on a longer term deal (thinking over seven). But I'm not overly concerned with him cheaping out or being uncreative in the mid-market. He pulled in Michael Busch last year as a creative first base solution and was willing to go with Imanaga in the midfield of the starting pitching options. The Cubs didn't top the SS market, but the Swanson deal has been successful despite the dollar signs and Taillon's contract hasn't been a hindrance. 

It's probably fair to point out some of the super-cheapo options the Cubs went with didn't always work great. Hosmer was probably always destined to fail and Mancini was a bust. Villar and Simmons didn't turn into fun trade pieces. But I think those were always seen as "lottery tickets to sell" versus "players to win with". Generally speaking, I think he's done fairly decent in term of those.

So in the end, I don't think Jed Hoyer, who has to know his job is definitely not guaranteed for 2026 (with no contract extension given yet and the lack of playoff appearances) will go with the "sentimental" choice as his offensive addition. I'm at least confident that if the Cubs don't go big-game-fishing that they will probably do something more substantial. It might be a Joc Pederson + platoon guy, or a Danny Jansen thing, but it'll be over Rizzo.

I appreciate your voice of reason. It usually keeps me from jumping off a cliff. 

You mentioned pederson, jed already did the Joc thing to no lasting positive results. Quite frankly I was quite happy we picked up the much ballyhoo  Brice Ball in exchange. While looking at current pederson, I notice an ever expanding gut that doesn't usually age well while longterm $ are involved.

I'll be happy to admit when I'm wrong, but I see a rizzo or a goldscmidt on the cubby 2025 roster. And it has to scare the living bejesus out of cubfans this offseason

[Bertz]

I think trying to use something like Arrieta from when the team was explicitly down as a lesson for team building philosophy for 2025 is foolish.  They were in pretty pure asset accumulation mode at that point.

Even Mancini I think the wrong lesson is being taken.  The lesson there is less "Jed likes horsefeathers 1B uh hyuk" and more "Jed was so unwilling to dip into the farm and Tom was unwilling to give him an advance on his allowance and terrible 1B production was the price." 

Given the low number of holes the roster has and the money available, there shouldn't be any positions left out in the cold like that this winter.  What you might more reasonably worry about is to what extent he's willing to dip into the farm.  A trade or two of substance or a Soto signing are probably needed to hit that magical 90 win projection Craig and Jed have called for.

[Jason Ross]

42 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I appreciate your voice of reason. It usually keeps me from jumping off a cliff. 

You mentioned pederson, jed already did the Joc thing to no lasting positive results. Quite frankly I was quite happy we picked up the much ballyhoo  Brice Ball in exchange. While looking at current pederson, I notice an ever expanding gut that doesn't usually age well while longterm $ are involved.

I'll be happy to admit when I'm wrong, but I see a rizzo or a goldscmidt on the cubby 2025 roster. And it has to scare the living bejesus out of cubfans this offseason

Unless Jed Hoyer straight up doesn't give a horsefeathers about his job I don't think the Cubs will go with Rizzo and his 91 wRC+ over the last 700 PA's. They don't have a spot on the team for a 1b/DH who doesn't hit or sentimentality unless Jed doesn't care if he's here in 2026 or not. Goldschmidt could fill a role considering he bashes LHP still. But I'd assume it'd come with a LHH at the DH spot who crushes RHP and only as a solution later in the offseason. But Goldy has been on a two year down spell and I think we're at a stage where Hoyer isn't running after him (think how the Cubs didn't really pursuit Justin Turner). 

I'm not sure what the bat will be. And I don't know how aggressive the Cubs will be. Frankly, I think this is time to be a bit aggressive, especially prospect wise. Kyle Tucker feels like your "Mookie Betts" guy if you want a one-year guy you can try to sign. And I think there are plenty of controllable assets that can be had (though those are hard to pin point as they're not really being "shopped"). But I think the Cubs will probably at least be at the "Goldy only as a platoon DH guy" level.

[LBiittner]

43 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Unless Jed Hoyer straight up doesn't give a horsefeathers about his job I don't think the Cubs will go with Rizzo and his 91 wRC+ over the last 700 PA's. They don't have a spot on the team for a 1b/DH who doesn't hit or sentimentality unless Jed doesn't care if he's here in 2026 or not. Goldschmidt could fill a role considering he bashes LHP still. But I'd assume it'd come with a LHH at the DH spot who crushes RHP and only as a solution later in the offseason. But Goldy has been on a two year down spell and I think we're at a stage where Hoyer isn't running after him (think how the Cubs didn't really pursuit Justin Turner). 

I'm not sure what the bat will be. And I don't know how aggressive the Cubs will be. Frankly, I think this is time to be a bit aggressive, especially prospect wise. Kyle Tucker feels like your "Mookie Betts" guy if you want a one-year guy you can try to sign. And I think there are plenty of controllable assets that can be had (though those are hard to pin point as they're not really being "shopped"). But I think the Cubs will probably at least be at the "Goldy only as a platoon DH guy" level.

Riz is good enough to play in the WORLD SERIES with 91wrc+ ?

 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, LBiittner said:

Riz is good enough to play in the WORLD SERIES with 91wrc+ ?

 

Yeah, but the Yankees are really good at most positions and don't have a lot of internal 1b options. Rizzo's 84 wRC+ is the best on the team of anyone who played 1b. They can't really add anyone at this point, so it's Rizzo or...no one. 

The Cubs have $50-$80m of money to spend and lots of prospects. They have a lot of options considering they don't even need the guy to be 1b - if Bellinger opts out, they could go a lot of directions. They'd have to get really, really low on the list to get to a 91 wRC+ 1b.

[Tryptamine]

I'm confused as to why people would be blown away if they brought back Rizzo. It's obviously a terrible move, but Hoyer did the same thing with Arrieta to milk the fan's emotions

Arrieta was coming off 2 seasons with 

4.64 and 5.04 ERA

4.89 and 4.66 FIP

5.09 and 5.66 xERA

 

Edited October 29, 2024 by Tryptamine

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm confused as to why people would be blown away if they brought back Rizzo. It's obviously a terrible move, but Hoyer did the same thing with Arrieta to milk the fan's emotions

Arrieta was coming off 2 seasons with 

4.64 and 5.04 ERA

4.89 and 4.66 FIP

5.09 and 5.66 xERA

 

I think the circumstances were very different. When the Cubs signed Jake Arrieta coming out of 2020 and into 2021, the expectations for the Cubs were "rebuilding". Sure, they had Bryant, Baez and a few other good players, but the previous two were on one-year-deals with no extension in sight, they had just traded Darvish for half of a HS team, payroll was down, and it was clear the direction they were going. This was a "hope he has a good first half of baseball and trade 'em!" type of a lottery ticket for a VP of baseball entering his first season. There was a good dose of sentimentality there, as well. 

Jed Hoyer enters 2025 with an 83 win team in which people feel as though they kind of underachieved with. A team with playoff aspirations. They're a team with most of the positions locked up for more than one season - there's no real feel here that the Cubs are blowing it up in July. He also comes in with a one year contract and on the hot seat meaning Jed can't afford a mid-season blow up. They're not desperate for a 1b-only type, either. 

Sure, the Cubs, did, once sign someone for sentimentality but I don't think that means they'll do it again. Under this pretense, they'll resign Hendricks over bringing in another SP to upgrade the rotation. The circumstances surrounding 2021 and 2025 are vastly different. Both from a team standpoint and a personal standpoint from Hoyer. Maybe Hoyer signs Rizzo, or Hendricks, but I think it's pretty damn unlikely all things considered. If this was a 70 win team who had trouble selling tickets and a blow up was looming with a settled VP? Maybe they go one-last-dance. But this is a GM who in theory should be scraping to be employed in 2026. 

[CubinNY]

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm confused as to why people would be blown away if they brought back Rizzo. It's obviously a terrible move, but Hoyer did the same thing with Arrieta to milk the fan's emotions

Arrieta was coming off 2 seasons with 

4.64 and 5.04 ERA

4.89 and 4.66 FIP

5.09 and 5.66 xERA

 

It's a different context. Busch plays good defense so you don't need Rizzo for late inning D. Busch bats lefty, no need for a lefty 1B. You can get better production at DH than he will give. The Cubs are in win mode or should be. We know they don't need to draw fans. They could draw 25K with the Iowa team. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

29 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

We know they don't need to draw fans. They could draw 25K with the Iowa team. 

So then Rizzo can play in Iowa.  But what do we do with Mervis???

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

It's a different context. Busch plays good defense so you don't need Rizzo for late inning D. Busch bats lefty, no need for a lefty 1B. You can get better production at DH than he will give. The Cubs are in win mode or should be. We know they don't need to draw fans. They could draw 25K with the Iowa team. 

Goldschmidt is truly an option at 1st and dh. He plays every freaking day. And counsell will be happy to oblige the grizzled vet

[mul21]

4 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Goldschmidt is truly an option at 1st and dh. He plays every freaking day. And counsell will be happy to oblige the grizzled vet

Busch started 130 games, is 10 years younger, and was way more productive than Goldschmidt at first last year.  What on earth makes you think they'd do something like that?

[Derwood]

Rizzo put up 31.0 fWAR in nine seasons with the Cubs

Rizzo has put up 5.3 fWAR in four seasons with the Yankees

His last two seasons were 0.8 and -0.2

Why on earth would the Cubs sign him?