Brewers (Rea) vs Cubs (Taillon): 7/23/24, 7:05pm

[Backtobanks]

3 hours ago, Stratos said:

They're squeezed for CF.  Tauchman was PH for the previous inning, Wisdom was in RF.

Only things they could have done is moved Morel to CF and Mastro stays to play 3B, or put Seiya from DH to OF and he or Happ in CF and forefeit the DH spot and have the pitcher or whomever hit.

They have 7 INF on the roster but only 4 OF where all 4 are usually in the lineup most days.  Maybe Canario should come up and Wisdom sent down or something.  I think they need a PH option for PCA.

They should have sent PCA down to the minors weeks ago (or trade him) and then Tauchman and/or Canario could play CF until Bellinger comes back.

[Backtobanks]

6 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

That's a fair point, but how much of that is Jed and how much of it is Tom's influence on Jed?  It is most likely both.

Ding, Ding, we have a winner.  Ricketts is horrible, Hoyer is just as bad, and Hawkins doesn't seem much better. 

[Derwood]

Over the course of the season, the manager doesn't make a huge difference in terms of wins and losses. Last night's game was ABSOLUTELY affected by several bad managerial decisions. The year wasn't decided by that game, but come on, man, Counsell has to be smarter

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Over the course of the season, the manager doesn't make a huge difference in terms of wins and losses. Last night's game was ABSOLUTELY affected by several bad managerial decisions. The year wasn't decided by that game, but come on, man, Counsell has to be smarter

Just because his pinch hitters didn't succeed does not mean the original option would have. You're talking like 30% v 35%, actual differences are probably smaller than that. Busch and Tauchman are, in the sample size of 1 AB, marginally better than Wisdom and Bote, but Koenig is also better against lefties than righties. Wisdom hit a ball 104 MPH with a .350 xBA, Bote 96 MPH with a .290 xBA. Megill is significantly better against righties. 

I don't think managers really matter at all, but whatever value they do bring is in the macro. Saying otherwise is just doing the same stuff we did with Ross last year. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

We're the kings of the high xBA CF flyout. Can't pull fly balls for horsefeathers.

[s2obed]

10 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Just because his pinch hitters didn't succeed does not mean the original option would have. You're talking like 30% v 35%, actual differences are probably smaller than that. Busch and Tauchman are, in the sample size of 1 AB, marginally better than Wisdom and Bote, but Koenig is also better against lefties than righties. Wisdom hit a ball 104 MPH with a .350 xBA, Bote 96 MPH with a .290 xBA. Megill is significantly better against righties. 

I don't think managers really matter at all, but whatever value they do bring is in the macro. Saying otherwise is just doing the same stuff we did with Ross last year. 

I’m not PH’ing Busch who has been top 2 hitter on this team to give Wisdom an AB who seldom picks up game ABs.

[Bertz]

11 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

We're the kings of the high xBA CF flyout. Can't pull fly balls for horsefeathers.

This is not the secret sauce you're convinced it is.  You know what team leads the league in the rate they pull their fly balls?  The Mariners (22nd in wRC+).  The two teams directly in front and behind the Cubs?  The Phillies (6th) and Yankees (3rd).

[Derwood]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

This is not the secret sauce you're convinced it is.  You know what team leads the league in the rate they pull their fly balls?  The Mariners (22nd in wRC+).  The two teams directly in front and behind the Cubs?  The Phillies (6th) and Yankees (3rd).

The Yankees and Phillies don't need to pull the ball as much when they have Soto/Judge/Stanton and Harper/Schwarber on their rosters. Put that kind of power on the Cubs and we'd have less warning track power.

[CubinNY]

I can see them trading Tallion and then next year looking for a starter all season. Because that’s the way it seems to work. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

8 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I can see them trading Tallion and then next year looking for a starter all season. Because that’s the way it seems to work. 

Yes, think back to the first half of the year and then think of who would've been available to take the dozen Taillon starts.

In a similar vein, for all the understandable irritations with the offense, a big chunk of that is the run environment, hence all the close games.  Very real possibility that even if they don't trade Taillon, fan sentiment is 'the rotation is fine, fix the offense', and then next year the environment changes and the problem spots switch places when Taillon/Shota give up more HR, Wicks or Assad faceplants, etc.  tl;dr the offense is probably not as big an issue as it *feels*, and by the same token the pitching is not as strong as it feels either.

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, Derwood said:

The Yankees and Phillies don't need to pull the ball as much when they have Soto/Judge/Stanton and Harper/Schwarber on their rosters. Put that kind of power on the Cubs and we'd have less warning track power.

Fair enough.  Milwaukee and Boston are 23rd and 25th in this measure.  They lack an extreme monster power bat (Devers is a great hitter but not an extreme raw power goof) and are two of the three biggest teamwide xwOBA overperformers.

[thawv]

10 hours ago, LBiittner said:

True question: how much to sign soto in your opinion?

12/540 is my guess 

[gflore34]

I’d like to believe the Cubs would be serious contenders for Soto.  That’s as far as goes, in actuality, after the Dodgers do not win the WS, they’re going to sign Soto and backload his contract until the mid 22nd century.

[KCCub]

32 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

In a similar vein, for all the understandable irritations with the offense, a big chunk of that is the run environment, hence all the close games.  Very real possibility that even if they don't trade Taillon, fan sentiment is 'the rotation is fine, fix the offense', and then next year the environment changes and the problem spots switch places when Taillon/Shota give up more HR, Wicks or Assad faceplants, etc.  tl;dr the offense is probably not as big an issue as it *feels*, and by the same token the pitching is not as strong as it feels either.

This is what I've been harping on for awhile. The MLB is absolutely going to make sure the offensive environment is better next year (Similar to what happened after the 2022 dead ball season). There's going to be a lot of regression with our pitching staff next year. Guys that miss bats at a higher rate are going to be that much more valuable next season similar to how guys who have upper end power are that much more valuable this year. It was either Frank Stampfl or Chris Towers who said it best - Guys who hit the ball 40 rows deep aren't impacted by the ball going 37 rows now, but guys who only hit it a couple rows deep are heavily impacted this year. Think Nico and all the nice looking swings he's had that are caught at the warning track. I would like to think in an average live ball season those are doubles off the wall and/or some are making it in the basket. 

[Tryptamine]

This offseason, assuming Bellinger does not opt out and they do not move Taillon. I want one reliable set up man for the pen. It doesn't have to be an expensive Kenley Jansen type. Everything else I want funneled into a combination of C/3B/RF/DH. If they can get a RFer, fine Seiya goes to DH. I'm 100% fine with not investing a dollar into the rotation because frankly I feel pretty good about some combination of Steele/Imanaga/Taillon/Assad/Wicks/Brown. 

I'm not even going to entertain the idea of Soto so, go grab JD Martinez and Bregman in FA. Send Morel to AAA or trade him. Deal some of that prospect surplus to the Dodgers for Dalton Rushing who is completely blocked in LA. Get a 1 year stop gap C to back up Amaya until Rushing is ready in late 2025. Go into 2025 with a line up of 

C- Amaya

1B: Busch

2B: Nico

SS: Dansby

3B: Bregman

RF: Seiya

CF: Bellinger

LF: Happ

DH: Martinez

There's no super elite bat, but there's 6 guys who will likely be between 110-140 wRC+ with Dansby/Nico right around 100. That's a pretty deep lineup which is completely what this year's team lacks. 

Edited July 24, 2024 by Tryptamine

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Yes, think back to the first half of the year and then think of who would've been available to take the dozen Taillon starts.

In a similar vein, for all the understandable irritations with the offense, a big chunk of that is the run environment, hence all the close games.  Very real possibility that even if they don't trade Taillon, fan sentiment is 'the rotation is fine, fix the offense', and then next year the environment changes and the problem spots switch places when Taillon/Shota give up more HR, Wicks or Assad faceplants, etc.  tl;dr the offense is probably not as big an issue as it *feels*, and by the same token the pitching is not as strong as it feels either.

Since May 1st Cub offensive ranks

Runs 27th

HR 25th

BB% 6th

K% 23rd

wOBA 22nd

wRC+ 21st

fWAr 20th

 

The rest of the league faces this same bad run environment and the Cub offense is still a bottom third or worse offense.  They can take walks, but that's about all they got going for them.

[Irrelevant Dude]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm 100% fine with not investing a dollar into the rotation because frankly I feel pretty good about some combination of Steele/Imanaga/Taillon/Assad/Wicks/Brown.

Let's say, hypothetically, Kyle Hendricks stays healthy and continues to pitch adequately through the rest of this season.  Not great by any means, but at least well enough to be competitive in most of his starts.  If he wants to continue pitching beyond this season, and if there is little interest in his services from other teams, would you bring him back on a minimum salary-ish type deal as rotation depth?  Or is it better to move on and have a clean break?

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Let's say, hypothetically, Kyle Hendricks stays healthy and continues to pitch adequately through the rest of this season.  Not great by any means, but at least well enough to be competitive in most of his starts.  If he wants to continue pitching beyond this season, and if there is little interest in his services from other teams, would you bring him back on a minimum salary-ish type deal as rotation depth?  Or is it better to move on and have a clean break?

I'm ready to move on. Right now you have Steele/Imanaga/Taillon/Assad/Wicks/Brown you also potentially have Horton at some point in 2025. You also have Wesneski as 7th starter should injuries go crazy again. Wesneski is by no means great, but as the #7 starter, potentially #8 if Horton is ready, I think he's definitely adequate

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Since May 1st Cub offensive ranks

Runs 27th

HR 25th

BB% 6th

K% 23rd

wOBA 22nd

wRC+ 21st

fWAr 20th

 

The rest of the league faces this same bad run environment and the Cub offense is still a bottom third or worse offense.  They can take walks, but that's about all they got going for them.

The point was not 'actually the Cubs offense is good, they just score fewer runs in this environment', the point is that the Cubs, while a below average offense, scoring < 4 runs so often is more normal than it might feel because of the run scoring environment.  Also, we should be less enthusiastic about the starting pitching for the same reason, Shota and Taillon in particular with their FB tendencies probably have regression in their future(in terms of raw run prevention, not necessarily relative to league average).

[LBiittner]

3 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Let's say, hypothetically, Kyle Hendricks stays healthy and continues to pitch adequately through the rest of this season.  Not great by any means, but at least well enough to be competitive in most of his starts.  If he wants to continue pitching beyond this season, and if there is little interest in his services from other teams, would you bring him back on a minimum salary-ish type deal as rotation depth?  Or is it better to move on and have a clean break?

I'm the least sentimental guy. But on a very team friendly deal I'd welcome him back as a 6th starterish type of guy. Not sure if they have the roster space to carry him all the time, but maybe counsell can get creative juggling the IL for times to take a breather and facing optimal opponents. 

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Let's say, hypothetically, Kyle Hendricks stays healthy and continues to pitch adequately through the rest of this season.  Not great by any means, but at least well enough to be competitive in most of his starts.  If he wants to continue pitching beyond this season, and if there is little interest in his services from other teams, would you bring him back on a minimum salary-ish type deal as rotation depth?  Or is it better to move on and have a clean break?

I was briefly tempted into this line of thought a few weeks ago, but I think if you bring in a veteran for that type of role you want someone who A) doesn't have the social capital where you have to worry about cutting them if it doesn't work out and B) might work out in the bullpen.  Someone like Patrick Corbin who you can squint and say "if he's airing it out for 2-3 innings and throwing 70% sliders maybe...."

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The point was not 'actually the Cubs offense is good, they just score fewer runs in this environment', the point is that the Cubs, while a below average offense, scoring < 4 runs so often is more normal than it might feel because of the run scoring environment.  Also, we should be less enthusiastic about the starting pitching for the same reason, Shota and Taillon in particular with their FB tendencies probably have regression in their future(in terms of raw run prevention, not necessarily relative to league average).

Yes, I don't believe the Cubs are actually a top 7 pitching staff and we should expect a little regression, but I'm far more worried about an offense that's ranked in the bottom third than a pitching staff that, even after regression, is likely in the top half of the league.

[gflore34]

22 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

This offseason, assuming Bellinger does not opt out and they do not move Taillon. I want one reliable set up man for the pen. It doesn't have to be an expensive Kenley Jansen type. Everything else I want funneled into a combination of C/3B/RF/DH. If they can get a RFer, fine Seiya goes to DH. I'm 100% fine with not investing a dollar into the rotation because frankly I feel pretty good about some combination of Steele/Imanaga/Taillon/Assad/Wicks/Brown. 

I'm not even going to entertain the idea of Soto so, go grab JD Martinez and Bregman in FA. Send Morel to AAA or trade him. Deal some of that prospect surplus to the Dodgers for Dalton Rushing who is completely blocked in LA. Get a 1 year stop gap C to back up Amaya until Rushing is ready in late 2025. Go into 2025 with a line up of 

C- Amaya

1B: Busch

2B: Nico

SS: Dansby

3B: Bregman

RF: Seiya

CF: Bellinger

LF: Happ

DH: Martinez

There's no super elite bat, but there's 6 guys who will likely be between 110-140 wRC+ with Dansby/Nico right around 100. That's a pretty deep lineup which is completely what this year's team lacks. 

Pursuing Brennon/Martinez types is in Hoyer’ wheelhouse and exactly what should expect in 2025.  If the Cubs are serious about Soto then Hoyer is not their GM.

[LBiittner]

10 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm ready to move on. Right now you have Steele/Imanaga/Taillon/Assad/Wicks/Brown you also potentially have Horton at some point in 2025. You also have Wesneski as 7th starter should injuries go crazy again. Wesneski is by no means great, but as the #7 starter, potentially #8 if Horton is ready, I think he's definitely adequate

7 of the 8 have been on the IL this season. I don't like the %. Keep or attain every possible starter. 

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I was briefly tempted into this line of thought a few weeks ago, but I think if you bring in a veteran for that type of role you want someone who A) doesn't have the social capital where you have to worry about cutting them if it doesn't work out and B) might work out in the bullpen.  Someone like Patrick Corbin who you can squint and say "if he's airing it out for 2-3 innings and throwing 70% sliders maybe...."

Agees. They cannot bring Kyle back. And if the league does focus on more offense and do things to generate that idea, as some have suggested, Kyle will not fair well. He will be one of the pitchers hurt the most IMO. He doesn’t miss bats. I am fine with adding a possible innings eating guy, but not him. And, TBH, I am not sure they even need that. I agree with tryptamine, they may have enough starters already.