Cubs Won't Buy At Deadline (Duh?), Still Deciding How/If To Trade Complicated Contract Situations

[Bertz]

There were some very early murmurs around Hoerner to Seattle.  If those were accurate you've got to think it'll be ratcheted up.

[squally1313]

8 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I understand because of wildcard situations to wait it out and all but to me it's a little nutsy.

For example, if jed had pulled off a deal 2 weeks ago for the right player (like a rumored cat her) we might be in prime situation today?

It's kinda queer to think for over 50-60 years mlb trade deadline was June 15th? Can you imagine June 15th, whether to go all in or hold?

Both of those last two points are still related to the expanded playoffs though, in my opinion. 2 weeks ago a Cubs-like team on the fringe probably wasn't willing to make anyone of value (the 'right player') because there was still time to go on a run. When that run doesn't materialize before the end of the July, that team becomes more willing to make those players available.

As for back in the day, 60 years there were 10 teams in each league and you needed to win the league to go to the playoffs (which was obviously just the World Series). On June 15th, 1965, 7 of the 20 teams were double digits back of the league leaders. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think there's a couple things about most teams waiting til the deadline.  

One is that capital B Blockbuster trades don't happen in general as much as they used to, and they definitely don't happen at the deadline as often.  Teams are less and less willing to give up top prospects, they don't overvalue fame, and only a handful of poor teams have much incentive to trade players before they are close to free agency.  As a result, most deadline moves of substance are for rentals with the occasional 1.5 season rental.

Because the players being traded away are rentals in an environment that zealously hoards prospects, there's almost always incentive for selling teams to wait.  The odds of your guy getting hurt pale in comparison to 1 of 10 teams having an injury that increases their need, or the odds that your team has a hot streak where you'd rather roll the dice on low playoff odds instead of getting a low level prospect.  So even if we can say 'just go get the guy early and pay the price if you have to', the person on the other end of that trade has just as much motivation to call the bluff that this offer won't be there later or that they can't get another offer as good or greater.

[LBiittner]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Both of those last two points are still related to the expanded playoffs though, in my opinion. 2 weeks ago a Cubs-like team on the fringe probably wasn't willing to make anyone of value (the 'right player') because there was still time to go on a run. When that run doesn't materialize before the end of the July, that team becomes more willing to make those players available.

As for back in the day, 60 years there were 10 teams in each league and you needed to win the league to go to the playoffs (which was obviously just the World Series). On June 15th, 1965, 7 of the 20 teams were double digits back of the league leaders. 

Mlb in the 60s. No wonder I was lousy in geography, Atlanta was in the western division.

But even in expansion years they still maintained stats quo with the June 15th time line. Ownerships were Dinosaurs when it came to change.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I should also add, MLB moving the draft to July hurts the timeline for scouting resources too. Since teams are understandably putting max effort into that process, they have to wait until after the draft to get into the nitty gritty on potential returns for deadline deals.

[LBiittner]

32 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I should also add, MLB moving the draft to July hurts the timeline for scouting resources too. Since teams are understandably putting max effort into that process, they have to wait until after the draft to get into the nitty gritty on potential returns for deadline deals.

You're  probably on point with this by far. 

[Bertz]

On 7/23/2024 at 11:15 AM, Bertz said:

I don't love a pure DH as the way to improve the team.  That said the A's are a team that is likely to just want value and not be picky about what it looks like, i.e. they see no difference between 2 quarters and 5 dimes.  Also his salary is nothing, even with his breakout we're probably talking $6-8M next year?  He's a major addition that you can do a lot on top of, which you can't necessarily say for a lot of the others.

I swear it's the not lack of offense the last two games, but I think I'm pulling a 180 on this not being my preferred route.  It's actually the 3B conundrum that's pushing this.  There's just not a perfect option there despite it being the ideal place to pour a big chunk of resources. 

Trade for Rooker and get some pure unadulterated offensive improvement banked, and then you don't have to sweat catcher and 3B so much.  Like don't get me wrong you still need to address them, but there's just less need to get someone perfect.  Plus Rooker's salary makes it easier to pile more upgrades onto the roster.

[JBears79]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

There were some very early murmurs around Hoerner to Seattle.  If those were accurate you've got to think it'll be ratcheted up.

I wonder if Harry Ford is a possibility, We heard Kyle Teel's name for Boston. Wonder if Ford would be possible.

[imb]

On 7/23/2024 at 4:13 PM, TomtheBombadil said:

He’s put up 6 WAR for like a $1.50 and shown an in demand skillset

The MAGA stuff is a bigger deal but that crap’s all over. There’s no baseball player or sports team who represents anything good politically nor is it their job. Don’t hold your breath for an athlete with better than terrible politics. Particularly since all day every day across the board the rhetoric towards them is they are overpaidz and not producing enough. The way we “choose” to do sports, talk about sports, work, exist in general is a breeding ground for ultra conservative nonsense 

its fun to read tom in the politics threads and then tom in the baseball threads

[LBiittner]

18 minutes ago, imb said:

its fun to read tom in the politics threads and then tom in the baseball threads

I find him best in the minors thread. A fine hugger of the potentially elite for what's in store for the future

[Post Count Padder]

MLB trades that should happen in 2024

WWW.MLB.COM

---

At this time of year, we all become baseball general managers in our minds. We undertake the fun exercise of crafting theoretical trades that could shake things up ahead of the stretch run as...

 

Happ isn't going anywhere because of his NTC, and I personally am fine with that. But this wouldn't be an awful return, hypothetically. 

[Bertz]

 

[JD94]

33 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

Is he trying to say Jed is still unsure what he wants to do 2 days before the deadline? Yeah. No. I don’t buy that 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, JD94 said:

Is he trying to say Jed is still unsure what he wants to do 2 days before the deadline? Yeah. No. I don’t buy that 

I wouldn't be shocked by this at all. Also, 55 hours left Jed, can we not wait until the last few hours before deciding to do something? Thanks.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I am begging the media to find a better way to talk about this then describing teams as buying or selling as if that informs how they will approach every player, especially non-rentals.  The Cubs are not making trades to try to win in 2024, it is yet to be seen if some team is going to offer them an attractive enough deal to trade away Taillon's 2025 productivity since they intend to compete next year.

[Rob]

1 minute ago, JD94 said:

Is he trying to say Jed is still unsure what he wants to do 2 days before the deadline? Yeah. No. I don’t buy that 

I absolutely believe Jed would say he doesn't know what he wants to do. In fact, I'd be shocked if he wasn't saying that. It ostensibly shifts the burden on buyers from "this is the best offer you've received" to "this ought to convince you to sell." From that perspective, whether it's true or not, acting like he's undecided is the smart play.

And honestly? I wouldn't blame him even if he's still undecided. This isn't 2021's firesale where it was obvious they all needed to go.

Determining whether or not to sell a guy like Taillon isn't as simple as looking at what's left on his contract and what the offer is. The comfort of selling on him may be contingent upon what Jed feels like the rotation options would be in 2025 to replace Taillon. Some of that could be based not just on the Taillon move, but on other moves we might make to bring in potential starters. I could see a lot moving pieces needing to come together just right for Jed to be willing to pull the trigger. Maybe Jed isn't willing to move Taillon unless he gets a guy being talked about in a Happ or Bellinger trade that's having some trouble coming together. So it wouldn't be clear to Jed whether he's moving Taillon or not.

We'll know soon enough.

[JD94]

23 minutes ago, Rob said:

I absolutely believe Jed would say he doesn't know what he wants to do. In fact, I'd be shocked if he wasn't saying that. It ostensibly shifts the burden on buyers from "this is the best offer you've received" to "this ought to convince you to sell." From that perspective, whether it's true or not, acting like he's undecided is the smart play.

And honestly? I wouldn't blame him even if he's still undecided. This isn't 2021's firesale where it was obvious they all needed to go.

Determining whether or not to sell a guy like Taillon isn't as simple as looking at what's left on his contract and what the offer is. The comfort of selling on him may be contingent upon what Jed feels like the rotation options would be in 2025 to replace Taillon. Some of that could be based not just on the Taillon move, but on other moves we might make to bring in potential starters. I could see a lot moving pieces needing to come together just right for Jed to be willing to pull the trigger. Maybe Jed isn't willing to move Taillon unless he gets a guy being talked about in a Happ or Bellinger trade that's having some trouble coming together. So it wouldn't be clear to Jed whether he's moving Taillon or not.

We'll know soon enough.

I mean I agree with this point. As far as playing the media goes, I agree with him saying he doesn’t know. I just meant I’m not buying that he doesn’t know exactly what he wants to do. Sure, what he wants to do may not come together, but he still has a plan. That’s all I was saying. 

[KCCub]

 

What’s happening?!?!?

[WhyCantWeWin]

15 minutes ago, KCCub said:

 

What’s happening?!?!?

That wisdom grand slam convinced hoyer to buy

[Tryptamine]

Just now, WhyCantWeWin said:

That wisdom grand slam convinced hoyer to buy

I love how many people are calling the Cubs dumb for buying when everyone they're acquiring is under control for multiple years.

[Tryptamine]

So, who's the RF to chase in trades/FA now? Tyler O'Neil would be a good get. He's injury prone, but when he's on the field he can rake. 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, TomtheBombadil said:

Bellinger. Either with Crow-Armstrong in CF or, best yet, move for Robert Jr. 

Eh, you're probably right but 

C- Amaya

1B- Busch

2B- Nico

SS- Dansby

3B- Parades

RF- Bellinger

CF- PCA

LF- Happ

DH- Seiya 

It still feels like it needs another bat

[LBiittner]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Bellinger. Either with Crow-Armstrong in CF or, best yet, move for Robert Jr. 

So tom let's dream: Trade PCA+ for Robert Jr. 

Who's the plus now 

[LBiittner]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

Eh, you're probably right but 

C- Amaya

1B- Busch

2B- Nico

SS- Dansby

3B- Parades

RF- Bellinger

CF- PCA

LF- Happ

DH- Seiya 

It still feels like it needs another bat

I holding onto the dream of Teel by midseason 25

[LBiittner]

Does jed going in on paredes cancel any taillon talk now?