Phillies (Mercado) vs Cubs (Wesneski): 7/2/24, 7:05pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Phillies. Woof.

[CubinNY]

We will see if they have any life left in them as they limp along to the ASB. It's unrealistic to think they can play themselves back into contention, but I would settle for some fundamentally sound baseball even if they do not win. I can stand the lack of offense to some extent, but the sloppy play makes me an angry fan. 

[Bertz]

It's so weird to see the Phillies come to town and be worried about their pitching and not their offense.  

[Cuzi]

In order to be worried there first needs to be something to worry about. There's nothing to worry about when it comes to 2024 Cubs baseball any more.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Might have a chance with both Harper and Schwarber out, but these Cubs have been getting dominated by everyone besides the white sox so maybe thats a little too optimistic 

[CubinNY]

From the Athletic

Quote

Can you guess the last time they won more than two games in a row? April 23-26. It’s July now. 

 

[Dfan25]

Just keep losing . Don’t want them to get 2-3 under before the deadline and keep this roster the same . Goal should be to unload as many contracts as possible .

They should look into dealing Happ / Taillon if posible .  I would be open to moving Hoerner as well . Try to get back some players close to the majors . No A ball kids . Time to break this core up . It isn’t working .

 

 

[Bertz]

I'm very interested in the plan with Kilian.  It seemed in the spring they might just have him let it eat in relief where the pure velo on his fastball could potentially overcome its lack of life.  I assume that's still the case?  Or does he start knowing how thin the rotation is at the moment?

[squally1313]

34 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Just keep losing . Don’t want them to get 2-3 under before the deadline and keep this roster the same . Goal should be to unload as many contracts as possible .

They should look into dealing Happ / Taillon if posible .  I would be open to moving Hoerner as well . Try to get back some players close to the majors . No A ball kids . Time to break this core up . It isn’t working .

 

 

Do you think you could get players better than what Happ and Hoerner are projected to give you the next two years? Ian is on pace for about 3 WAR, Hoerner about 3.5. 

[chopsx9]

25 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Do you think you could get players better than what Happ and Hoerner are projected to give you the next two years? Ian is on pace for about 3 WAR, Hoerner about 3.5. 

The players coming back don't have to give you back that production in the next 2 years (and if they were why would the other teams trade them??) - there are potential in house replacements that MAY do that.  The issue is that what they have now isn't working - it is certainly open for discussion on who it makes sense to trade but we certainly seem to be at the point where something needs to change.

Edited July 2, 2024 by chopsx9

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, chopsx9 said:

The players coming back don't have to give you back that production in the next 2 years (and if they were why would the other teams trade them??) - there are potential in house replacements that MAY do that.  The issue is that what they have now isn't working - it is certainly open for discussion on who it makes sense to trade but we certainly seem to be at the point something needs to change.

Things definitely do need to change. Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner are 2nd and 3rd on the team in offensive fWAR.

We have a third baseman who leads the team in PAs and has given us 0.2 fWAR. Cody Bellinger has given us 1.0 fWAR and is outpacing his xwOBA by 28 points. Our catchers are an abomination. PCA has a 48 wRC. The bullpen is an obvious disaster. I would focus on those things. 

Happ has been a weird whipping boy for a while now, I guess it's Nico's turn now too? But they aren't the problem. 

[chopsx9]

20 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Things definitely do need to change. Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner are 2nd and 3rd on the team in offensive fWAR.

We have a third baseman who leads the team in PAs and has given us 0.2 fWAR. Cody Bellinger has given us 1.0 fWAR and is outpacing his xwOBA by 28 points. Our catchers are an abomination. PCA has a 48 wRC. The bullpen is an obvious disaster. I would focus on those things. 

Happ has been a weird whipping boy for a while now, I guess it's Nico's turn now too? But they aren't the problem. 

Who is saying they're the problem??  You'd trade them because there is some value there but neither is likely valuable enough to be the solution.  Nobody is talking about trading Amaya because you're not going to get anything for him.   You don't hear much about Dansby because he is likely untradeable.   OF is also a potential position of depth so an OF makes sense.  These guys are coming up because something useful would likely come back.  You're not getting anything for Madrigal or Bote so why talk about it.

[jersey cubs fan]

Ugh, I’m in Phillies territory for this matchup 

[I owned a Suzuki]

Sadly, without Harper, Schwarber and Realmuto the Phillies have a better lineup. 

[squally1313]

54 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

Who is saying they're the problem??  You'd trade them because there is some value there but neither is likely valuable enough to be the solution.  Nobody is talking about trading Amaya because you're not going to get anything for him.   You don't hear much about Dansby because he is likely untradeable.   OF is also a potential position of depth so an OF makes sense.  These guys are coming up because something useful would likely come back.  You're not getting anything for Madrigal or Bote so why talk about it.

You act like trading away the valuable pieces of the team doesn’t hurt the long term prospects of team success. 

[Dfan25]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Do you think you could get players better than what Happ and Hoerner are projected to give you the next two years? Ian is on pace for about 3 WAR, Hoerner about 3.5. 

If they trade those 3 players the Cubs would have way over 100 million to use next offseason and more players to fill holes or more trade pieces to work with 

If Jed Hoyer has way over 100 million to use and a strong minor league system he should be able to put together a playoff caliber team . If not he needs to get his ass fired . 

So yes he should be able to find better players with the amount of money he should have available and the trade pieces he should have available . If not we have a problem at the FO of this team 

 

Edited July 2, 2024 by Dfan25

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

I'm very interested in the plan with Kilian.  It seemed in the spring they might just have him let it eat in relief where the pure velo on his fastball could potentially overcome its lack of life.  I assume that's still the case?  Or does he start knowing how thin the rotation is at the moment?

With the way the season is going now for the cubs, id rather they just keep him down and just slowly build him back up and then in like September,  bring him up and let him get like 10-20 innings under his belt.

Just get him healthy and ready for next season 

[chopsx9]

20 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

You act like trading away the valuable pieces of the team doesn’t hurt the long term prospects of team success. 

You act like receiving valuable players back in a trade (that also frees up money) doesn't help the long term prospect of team success.

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

If they trade those 3 players the Cubs would have way over 100 million to use next offseason and more players to fill holes or more trade pieces to work with 

If Jed Hoyer has way over 100 million to use and a strong minor league system he should be able to put together a playoff caliber team . If not he needs to get his ass fired . 

So yes he should be able to find better players with the amount of money he should have available and the trade pieces he should have available . If not we have a problem at the FO of this team 

 

I agree that if they then used money to fill spots they can be good next year. Sure, Happ, Hoerner and Bellinger are gone, so sign Soto. Trade some minor league talent for major league talent to play somewhere in the infield. Also use some of the minor league talent for a proven reliable pitcher if they also trade Taillon. Or sign another higher end free agent.                                                                
 I agree if that is what they do they should be ok. I don’t agree with those who suggest to just being Shaw, Triantos and Cassie in to replace guys and expect them to be better than Happ and Hoerner. And I know you aren’t saying that. But some do.

My issue is I don’t have faith they will do this. my worry is they do exactly what some suggest. They bring up Triantos, Shaw and Cassie and rebuild again. 

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Do you think you could get players better than what Happ and Hoerner are projected to give you the next two years? Ian is on pace for about 3 WAR, Hoerner about 3.5. 

I think some of you look too much into these metric stats with these players and ignoring the performance you're actually seeing on the field.

These stats are fun to look at but they don't always truly show how these guys are performing on a daily basis. 

We're just over halfway through the season and people are looking at some of these stats and saying how they are still on pace to be this type of player and finish the season good.

Oh great we could get a decent August and September out of guys when it's too late for the team , but hey their stats will look OK.

No, these are the type of guys you need to move because they can't perform when it counts on a consistent basis. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

You act like receiving valuable players back in a trade (that also frees up money) doesn't help the long term prospect of team success.

I think the point is by trading Happ and Hoerner you are adding more holes to fill next year. If Bellinger is traded and guys like Hendricks, Smyle, Gomes, Mancini, Barnhardt, Neris and maybe they don’t tender a few guys dont they have about maybe $70M they can spend. Wouldn’t they be competitive if they signed Soto and then used some minor league talent to fill a spot at catcher and maybe 3rd base. Maybe even play Shaw at 3rd and use Morel in a trade for a decent controlled pitcher. Maybe you add someone to him to make it happen. Isn’t that easier than also having to fill Happ and Hoerner’s spots as well? Is it a bad think to have two starters who give you WAR at 3 or better? 

[chibears55]

29 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

You act like trading away the valuable pieces of the team doesn’t hurt the long term prospects of team success. 

What long term prospect of success will they have with Bellinger, Happ and or Hoerner finishing out their contracts?

Unless Rickett allows Hoyer to spend a bit more on top FA and or trade for stud players that a team looking to move on from their salary and go over the Threshold, this team is not having any type of valuable success in the next 2 seasons when those contracts expire.

Might as well try and get future pieces for them now over holding onto them and get nothing later. At the very least they will then have future access and some extra money available to spend.

[Stratos]

13 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

If they trade those 3 players the Cubs would have way over 100 million to use next offseason and more players to fill holes or more trade pieces to work with 

If Jed Hoyer has way over 100 million to use and a strong minor league system he should be able to put together a playoff caliber team . If not he needs to get his ass fired . 

So yes he should be able to find better players with the amount of money he should have available and the trade pieces he should have available . If not we have a problem at the FO of this team 

It's hard for me to see Nico traded at this point.  Next year I could see it with Shaw and/or Triantos potentially knocking on the door. Maybe Nico is moved not this offseason but next.

Taillon and Happ could potentially be traded.  Ideally they'd hold on to Happ until Caissie or other corner OF are a bit closer, but Bellinger can always play a corner if PCA & him stick next year.

IMO there's some potential for an overreaction in dealing guys just to deal them. I'm more worried about improving 3B and catcher for next year.

We're still in the early stages of this rebuild.  With the prospects and players we have I think the state of the infield and OF  look somewhat promising.  Catcher is unknown because we don't know how the Cubs see Bellosteros' catching defense.  We still need more HR power from somewhere.

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

You act like receiving valuable players back in a trade (that also frees up money) doesn't help the long term prospect of team success.

I think you're probably going to receive assets back that are unlikely to help the Chicago Cubs for a few years. Teams simply don't trade close-to-the-MLB prospects mid-season, and when near-MLB-ready prospects do get moved, they're generally lower ceiling prospects. 

It'd also be one thing if these players were making inflated amounts, but neither are. Nico Hoerner is making $11.5m the next two seasons. That's a little over what teams pay for a win (wins on the free market generally go between $8 and $9m or so). Even if you project Shaw as an immediate three win player on his own, $11.5m isn't going to buy much. So while I think the return would be good, it's unlikely to be immediate. 

Ian Happ is signed for $21m. While he's a little less "surplus value-y" he still offers a good contract due to length/price. I'm a little more willing to move Happ (especially if Bellinger is seemingly opt-ing in). However, with a NTC, Happ's value is probably pretty limited on his own. 

In the end the Cubs are not rebuilding again; that much is clear. Jed Hoyer is signed through 2025 only right now; he has no reason to tear it down and not shoot for competition in 2025. The Cubs haven't fired him, which is what they'd do if they were cool with ripping it down. I'm not entirely opposed to a Happ trade, but even then, I'm not sure it's making the Cubs any better next year. A lot of this feels like fans just want to high five and say "it'll be different because these guys are gone!" and feel like real change is happening. And I don't disagree that change is needed. But I'm not sure trading either of these are bringing positive changes to the Cubs.

[Cuzi]

If you could guarantee me Busch can play 2B at the major league level, the Cubs used prospects to trade for Vlad, and Juan Soto signed on the dotted line, then I would be all for trading Hoerner and Happ. But you can't guarantee that.

I'd love to hear an alternative plan that's more realistic that improves the team more than having Happ and Hoerner on the 2025 roster.