2024/25 offseason

[Stratos]

Cubs suck, let's look ahead for fun.

Free agents this offseason are, to my count:  Hendricks, Gomes, Smyly.  Plus Barnhart, Mancini, Bote off the books = about 46m total.  Most are just old and post-prime.  Also possible is Bellinger walking (but not trending that way).

46m to fix catcher, the pen, find a 3B, and possibly another BORP/MORP SP.  They could trade one of Happ/Suzuki/Bellinger, also Morel, plus any prospects on the table.

3B FA's:  Bregman, Drury, and Chapman if he opts-out.  SS/2b who maybe could play 3B:  Adames, Torres

Catchers:  Danny Jansen

[17 Seconds]

there is no horsefeathers way i'm getting even a little bit excited about the cubs potential offseason plans. we all know how it's going to go.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Specifically, from an AAV standpoint there's 44.75 million coming off with Hendricks, Smyly, Gomes, Mancini, Bote, and Barnhart.  Other potential departures:

- Bellinger (26.7M AAV) - I think the safe position is to assume he's opting out unless something takes a dramatic negative turn, though I wouldn't exactly spend his money in our heads either.

- Neris (9M) - If the team is not in the playoff chase they're gonna want to manage his innings so his option doesn't vest into a player option(60 G or 45 GF).  Right now his pace is borderline to reach it.

- Non-tenders: With this much of the season left it's hard to say since injuries or performance could impact a number of them.  At present Madrigal feels like the safest one, though Wisdom/Tauchman and the relievers(Leiter, Merryweather, Almonte, Alzolay) are possibilities if performance tanks or there's a long term arm injury.

The good news is that aside from possibly Bellinger, there's very little of current importance falling off the roster, which means while they do need to have e.g. a backup catcher, the shopping is more of a luxury than when they needed to replace Contreras or Stroman.  Arb raises for the remainder(even if only Steele) will eat into that money, but it's safe to say that they'll have at least 35 million at their disposal, if not 70M in the case of Bellinger & Neris departing.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Specifically, from an AAV standpoint there's 44.75 million coming off with Hendricks, Smyly, Gomes, Mancini, Bote, and Barnhart.  Other potential departures:

- Bellinger (26.7M AAV) - I think the safe position is to assume he's opting out unless something takes a dramatic negative turn, though I wouldn't exactly spend his money in our heads either.

- Neris (9M) - If the team is not in the playoff chase they're gonna want to manage his innings so his option doesn't vest into a player option(60 G or 45 GF).  Right now his pace is borderline to reach it.

- Non-tenders: With this much of the season left it's hard to say since injuries or performance could impact a number of them.  At present Madrigal feels like the safest one, though Wisdom/Tauchman and the relievers(Leiter, Merryweather, Almonte, Alzolay) are possibilities if performance tanks or there's a long term arm injury.

The good news is that aside from possibly Bellinger, there's very little of current importance falling off the roster, which means while they do need to have e.g. a backup catcher, the shopping is more of a luxury than when they needed to replace Contreras or Stroman.  Arb raises for the remainder(even if only Steele) will eat into that money, but it's safe to say that they'll have at least 35 million at their disposal, if not 70M in the case of Bellinger & Neris departing.

Small dollar amounts here, but Shota gets a $4m raise (plus maybe a little more depending on CY votes), Dansby gets a $2m raise (I know what part of this post will get clipped), though that is offset by Seiya going down $2m. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

33 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Small dollar amounts here, but Shota gets a $4m raise (plus maybe a little more depending on CY votes), Dansby gets a $2m raise (I know what part of this post will get clipped), though that is offset by Seiya going down $2m. 

Those year to year variations are already accounted for from an LT perspective, that's why we talk in AAV.  Unless it's someone achieving some incentive or choosing an option that changes things, the AAV already has it covered.

[mfcubs22]

Juan Soto. 

[Tim]

1 minute ago, mfcubs22 said:

Soto. 

 

[Stratos]

14 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Specifically, from an AAV standpoint there's 44.75 million coming off with Hendricks, Smyly, Gomes, Mancini, Bote, and Barnhart.  Other potential departures:

- Bellinger (26.7M AAV) - I think the safe position is to assume he's opting out unless something takes a dramatic negative turn, though I wouldn't exactly spend his money in our heads either.

- Neris (9M) - If the team is not in the playoff chase they're gonna want to manage his innings so his option doesn't vest into a player option(60 G or 45 GF).  Right now his pace is borderline to reach it.

- Non-tenders: With this much of the season left it's hard to say since injuries or performance could impact a number of them.  At present Madrigal feels like the safest one, though Wisdom/Tauchman and the relievers(Leiter, Merryweather, Almonte, Alzolay) are possibilities if performance tanks or there's a long term arm injury.

The good news is that aside from possibly Bellinger, there's very little of current importance falling off the roster, which means while they do need to have e.g. a backup catcher, the shopping is more of a luxury than when they needed to replace Contreras or Stroman.  Arb raises for the remainder(even if only Steele) will eat into that money, but it's safe to say that they'll have at least 35 million at their disposal, if not 70M in the case of Bellinger & Neris departing.

Good post.  I've never seen Hoyer's Cubs act in bad faith like re: suppressing Neris' innings so I'm not counting on that to happen, unless there's injury.

Would be nice if the Cubs could sign Danny Jansen.  Length would be the question, he'll be 30 as a catcher but in-demand.  I wonder if 3 years with a option for a 4th or maybe 5th is possible.

[Rcal10]

22 hours ago, mfcubs22 said:

Juan Soto. 

If Bellinger opts out there is absolutely no reason not to be the highest bidder on Soto. They have the money. Then sign Jansen and maybe a couple pen arms. They don’t really need to spend on starting pitching so put it all on Soto. They won’t get him, I know that. But my comment is there really isn’t an excuse not too. 

Edited June 20, 2024 by Rcal10

[JHBulls]

There is an old saying that everyone will keep getting promoted within a company because the company have reached their level of incompetence. The Ricketts family have reached that level and just don’t care about spending money. If this clubs owners cared about this team, someone in upper management would have said by now, “now wait a damn minute, that's stupid as hell” about Jed fumbling his way through every winter. 

Another offseason of pain is coming up.

Edited June 20, 2024 by JHBulls

[Bertz]

I think this should be an interesting offseason.  There's not a lot that NEEDS to be done.  Obviously relief help, and probably catcher help, and anything else should be pretty optional?  Like TT said Bellinger's the only FA we might miss, so there should be less of a shopping list aspect to the winter and more of a hunt for concentrated impact.  Also I think if it doesn't start in earnest at the TDL next month, we'll be at the point where simple roster limits will push Jed to where he must start cashing in prospect chips.

Depending on what happens at the deadline, I think the default assumption for the winter is a big signing AND a big trade.  I would put almost no hope in a Soto signing, but I think given the market, the payroll, and where the org is at pretty much anything else feels feasible.

[Tryptamine]

All I know is that on opening day 2026, Munetaka Murakami had better be a Cub. 

[LBiittner]

40 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

All I know is that on opening day 2026, Munetaka Murakami had better be a Cub. 

Dodgers will probably need a thirdbaseman around that time. 😀

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

I think this should be an interesting offseason.  There's not a lot that NEEDS to be done.  Obviously relief help, and probably catcher help, and anything else should be pretty optional?  Like TT said Bellinger's the only FA we might miss, so there should be less of a shopping list aspect to the winter and more of a hunt for concentrated impact.  Also I think if it doesn't start in earnest at the TDL next month, we'll be at the point where simple roster limits will push Jed to where he must start cashing in prospect chips.

Depending on what happens at the deadline, I think the default assumption for the winter is a big signing AND a big trade.  I would put almost no hope in a Soto signing, but I think given the market, the payroll, and where the org is at pretty much anything else feels feasible.

I agree we shouldn’t have any hope for Soto. But that is a reflection of the mind set of the FO and ownership. Really if Bellinger leaves there is no reason, other than the organization not willing to give out a 10+ year deal, for the Cubs not to be the best offer. They can sign him, a couple pen arms and upgrade at catcher and probably still be under the LT. And, frankly, that sucks. Because Aoto would be that superstar everyone always wants the Cubs to have. And with him and a decent hitting catcher that would help the offense immensely. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Quote

The Mets want to keep him long term, and by all indications the feeling is mutual. However, Alonso first needs to see how he’s valued on the open market as the Mets view him in the range of the Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson deals, while the Alonso camp feels his value, including what he brings as a leader and star who embraces playing in New York, is worth more.

Lol I highly doubt Stearns regards him that highly Bowden you schmuck 

[Tryptamine]

By all means, please keep Jed from himself and throw 250M at Alonso

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

All I know is that on opening day 2026, Munetaka Murakami had better be a Cub. 

Not sure that's a great idea. He's fallen off significantly the last two seasons, posting deflated batting averages, likely due to increasing K issues. We don't have wRC+ for the Japanese Leagues (at least, I can't find it!) But his OPS have gone from over 1.000 to the mid .800s in 2023 and 2024 (to the lower .800s) He's a pretty good NPB hitter who strikes out a ton (81 in 64 games). Considering the jump to MLB pitching, Murakami seems like a bad bet unless there's some major contact changes. His prospect star has dimmed considerably. 

[Stratos]

31 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

By all means, please keep Jed from himself and throw 250M at Alonso

Much rather have Soto if we're spending big FA money.  Age is on his side.

I'd sign Soto, enjoy several prime years, and trade him when he's around 30 y/o.  I'd throw him a few extra million to avoid the no trade clause for the inconvenience.

He'll probably age better than most though since a solid chunk of his value is the walks and plate discipline, which I assume ages better than more physical tools.

[LBiittner]

The very next time jed spends big will be the very first time jed spends big.

[Cuzi]

On 6/20/2024 at 12:16 PM, Bertz said:

Depending on what happens at the deadline, I think the default assumption for the winter is a big signing AND a big trade.  I would put almost no hope in a Soto signing, but I think given the market, the payroll, and where the org is at pretty much anything else feels feasible.

It's quite sad when you have to put almost no hope in signing a 26 year old all time great player when you are talking about a top 5 market in baseball that lacks a true super star talent.

The mindset of how this organization is run is ass backwards.

Edited June 21, 2024 by Cuzi

[Wilson A2000]

On 6/19/2024 at 8:18 PM, Rcal10 said:

If Bellinger opts out there is absolutely no reason not to be the highest bidder on Soto. They have the money. Then sign Jansen and maybe a couple pen arms. They don’t really need to spend on starting pitching so put it all on Soto. They won’t get him, I know that. But my comment is there really isn’t an excuse not too. 

No chance the Cubs offer the money Soto will want. The Cubs have not spent on that kind of money on a single player ever and Ricketts hasn’t even tried for the top of the class free agents. They are just too pricey for him.

[Rcal10]

10 hours ago, Wilson A2000 said:

No chance the Cubs offer the money Soto will want. The Cubs have not spent on that kind of money on a single player ever and Ricketts hasn’t even tried for the top of the class free agents. They are just too pricey for him.

I agree with you. As I said, there is no reason they shouldn’t get him, but they won’t. As Cuzi said, the mindset of how this organization is run is ass backwards. He is only too pricey because if that mindset. If they acted as a large market team his price would not be an issue. 
 

[JD94]

Maybe it’s just me, but it feels like Tom and even Jed, I guess, just get a pass from not even fishing in the Soto type waters. It’s like we just accept that they won’t do it and are okay with it. I mean I know Cubs fans rioting on Twitter isn’t going to change the way the FO/Ownership run this team, it’s just annoying how they get a pass from this. There’s no excuse for us to not have a single super star player we can market and help us win games. Now we have a generational talent hitting the open market and Jed will probably offer 6/250 and walk away when they laugh in his face. 

[Bertz]

Not totally sure this goes here but it's not worth its own topic.  If you want a frontline SP in the short-medium term a Luzardo trade is one of the most viable avenues, now looks likely to be an offseason deal instead of a TDL that looked inevitable 3-4 months ago.

 

Edited June 22, 2024 by Bertz

[muntjack]

Luzardo has been the guy I've wanted for a few years now.  It's all there.