Cardinals (Mikolas) vs Cubs (Taillon): 6/16/24, 12:05pm

[chibears55]

...

Edited June 17, 2024 by chibears55

[Cuzi]

One of these days I have faith Hoyer will sell high on a player that probably has more value in trade than he does on the Cubs. You can preach all the bad luck you want about Morel, but there were plenty of people yapping in the offseason about how if he just played a position, any position at all, then he would double his production. Whoops. Turns out the 1000 or so innings he played at 3B in the minors and showed how incapable he is at the position isn't boosting his production at all.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Missed the game but see that they got dominated by CY Mikolas. Tough luck for this offense, they keep facing these fantastic pitchers!1!

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Chicago Al said:

The first half of your reply is what I’m talking about. I see the data and how he should have better numbers.

Maybe this adds a glimmer of hope.  They really need at least 2 of Morel, Happ, and Swanson to get going.  Morel has a .208 BABIP.  Last year and the year before it was both over .300.  He's been extremely unlucky.  They need more production in the 2nd half of the order.

What I realized the other day is that this team's offense is driven by walks.  They can get guys on base ok, but they just can't drive them in.  You can't walk your way to runs without hits/slug.  Cubs are 5th in MLB in walks, 26th in AVG, 24th in SLG, 21st in ISO.

Tauchman walks alot , Busch walks, Happ walks, Morel walking a lot more.  Tauchman hasn't walked or hit over the past month (6.3 BB%), that could be a fluke, or pitchers challenging him more.  They should try Canario in the lineup over PCA or even Tauchman.  He might struggle with K% and AVG but can mash at least.  I'd send PCA down, he needs to get AB's every day if he's going to ever hit in the MLB.

Edited June 17, 2024 by Stratos

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Missed the game but see that they got dominated by CY Mikolas. Tough luck for this offense, they keep facing these fantastic pitchers!1!

For what it’s worth he does have a 2.76 ERA his last 7 starts. Doesn’t excuse being able to do almost nothing against him today in optimal hitting conditions, but it’s a little easier to swallow knowing he’s been pitching really well lately. The Cubs still suck though. 

[CubinNY]

8 hours ago, Cuzi said:

One of these days I have faith Hoyer will sell high on a player that probably has more value in trade than he does on the Cubs. You can preach all the bad luck you want about Morel, but there were plenty of people yapping in the offseason about how if he just played a position, any position at all, then he would double his production. Whoops. Turns out the 1000 or so innings he played at 3B in the minors and showed how incapable he is at the position isn't boosting his production at all.

He's the Cubs best offensive player. He is playing better 3rd base every day. He's going to be a star. He's the exact player they should hang on to. 

[CubinNY]

Someone posted a comparison of Swanson and Heyward on Twitter for their first 200 Cubs ABs and they are almost identical. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

At least the Cards were just as putrid as the Cubs. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

I'd send PCA down, he needs to get AB's every day if he's going to ever hit in the MLB.

I just dont know whether he is ever going to hit, period.  He looks to be so far from a capable hitter that it might not make any difference whether he spends more time in AAA.

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I just dont know whether he is ever going to hit, period.  He looks to be so far from a capable hitter that it might not make any difference whether he spends more time in AAA.

PCA has a tremendous amount of swagger. But I believe he is also self-aware enough to learn and get better. He needs to play every day at the MLB level. The Cubs need to turn the page on this season and start moving guys up. It's clear that AAA is not as much of a developmental league as it once was. 

[Tryptamine]

8.5 games out of the division and 1.5 out of the WC , but with 8 teams ahead of them competing for those 3 spots. Could they technically make a run? Sure. Have they shown any indication whatsoever of doing so? Nope. If I'm Hoyer and this team continues to tank this week, then it's sale time and honestly even guys under contract for 2 or 3 more years might be on the table.

[Cuzi]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

He's the Cubs best offensive player. He is playing better 3rd base every day. He's going to be a star. He's the exact player they should hang on to. 

At no point in Morels MLB career has he ever been close to the Cubs' best offensive player. He is not playing better 3rd base every day, he continues to dig the whole deeper for one of the worst defenders in baseball. The only position he has shown any ability to play is 2B. It just so happens that middle infield is the most locked up positions on the team. Morel is a DH on this team, and he doesnt have a very good DH bat, that we are allowing to butcher 3B, because square peg round hole... He should have been traded, but we have a PoBO that is afraid to make "difficult" decisions.

[chibears55]

Remember when I said watch this team end up being sellers and everyone thought I was nuts...  😏😏😏

I get they don't have much of anything to sell, but I doubt we will see any real major additions and will likely see subtractions from this roster in July.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I just dont know whether he is ever going to hit, period.  He looks to be so far from a capable hitter that it might not make any difference whether he spends more time in AAA.

Oh he's not a good hitter and doesn't walk and this will probably never change, but he still needs PAs IMO

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

He should have been traded, but we have a PoBO that is afraid to make "difficult" decisions.

Hoyer fired 2016 fav David Ross to hire a rival manager.  He also traded away Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez and said bye to Contreras.

Morel has major issues but I don't think they kept him because they're scared to trade him.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Someone posted a comparison of Swanson and Heyward on Twitter for their first 200 Cubs ABs and they are almost identical. 

Yeah but Heywards glove didn't regress.  Oh wait...

[Chicago Al]

12 hours ago, Stratos said:

Maybe this adds a glimmer of hope.  They really need at least 2 of Morel, Happ, and Swanson to get going.  Morel has a .208 BABIP.  Last year and the year before it was both over .300.  He's been extremely unlucky.  They need more production in the 2nd half of the order.

What I realized the other day is that this team's offense is driven by walks.  They can get guys on base ok, but they just can't drive them in.  You can't walk your way to runs without hits/slug.  Cubs are 5th in MLB in walks, 26th in AVG, 24th in SLG, 21st in ISO.

Tauchman walks alot , Busch walks, Happ walks, Morel walking a lot more.  Tauchman hasn't walked or hit over the past month (6.3 BB%), that could be a fluke, or pitchers challenging him more.  They should try Canario in the lineup over PCA or even Tauchman.  He might struggle with K% and AVG but can mash at least.  I'd send PCA down, he needs to get AB's every day if he's going to ever hit in the MLB.

You’re right, they do need 2 more Morel’s, Happ’s and Swanson (preferably ones who can hit well). They seem to lose sight of hitting every time a runner is in scoring position. 2 on no outs, no runs. The walks are great and all but they have to find ways to turn those walks into runs, those lead off doubles into runs and so on and so on.  I’m good with giving Canario a shot, cant be any worse if he doesn’t hit cuz neither is PCA. It’s hard for PCA or any young hitter coming up to hit when you’re not getting consistent at bats.

[Cuzi]

49 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Hoyer fired 2016 fav David Ross to hire a rival manager.  He also traded away Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez and said bye to Contreras.

Morel has major issues but I don't think they kept him because they're scared to trade him.

 He traded away Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez in their final season on a losing team. Big whoop. He said bye to Contreras after they had known for years they had no intention of committing to him beyond his controlled years, They should have traded him the prior offseason.

Morel has/had 5 years of control, came off a good season, allegedly had a handful of suitors wanting to trade for him, and most likely valued him more than his actual value on the Cubs roster, and instead of going in on that market, he chose to see if it could work at 3B in MLB after 1000 innings of failed attempts in MiLB.

I'm not about to pat Hoyer on the back for his previous moves that were virtually penciled in already. Trading Morel last offseason would have been an infinitely tougher decision than trading any of those players you mentioned. The only thing to give Hoyer credit for would be that he seemingly maximized their value in return, that being said we haven't seen a damn thing yet from those returns and its 3 seasons later. Morel has a ton of control loaded with the potential of his bat, with the others the potential was all used up and it got them a WS... job well done. The problem for the Cubs is that Morels most successful defensive position isn't available.

Edited June 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[squally1313]

6 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Someone posted a comparison of Swanson and Heyward on Twitter for their first 200 Cubs ABs and they are almost identical. 

Why would we be comparing their first 200 ABs now that we have almost 900 PAs for Swanson? Through Heywards first two years he had a 79 wRC and had provided 7.9 of FG defensive value. Dansby in his Cubs career has a 98 wRC and has provided 24.4 of FG defensive value. 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

41 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Why would we be comparing their first 200 ABs now that we have almost 900 PAs for Swanson? Through Heywards first two years he had a 79 wRC and had provided 7.9 of FG defensive value. Dansby in his Cubs career has a 98 wRC and has provided 24.4 of FG defensive value. 

I assume he meant 200 games.

[thawv]

22 hours ago, Andy said:

Morel's results have been bad, all his peripherals indicate he should be really good. I'm actually not annoyed with him at all, he's been spectacularly unlucky to a degree I can't recall seeing from a Cub ever.

His hard hit rate and exit velo is falling fast though.  

[squally1313]

35 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

I assume he meant 200 games.

Yeah good call. Haven't see the exact tweet but rough comparison on my end has about even OBP (.315ish) and Swanson putting up like 40-50 points of slugging so far over Heywards first two years (total). At a more important defensive position, and then 2016 and 2017 league wide had .739 and .750 OPS while 2023 and 2024 have .734 and .701 (jesus something is broken). 

This is Dansby's worst year in a while. He has 0.9 fWAR which is better than Heyward's full season Cubs debut and 0.1 off his next season. Swanson has 5.6 fWAR with the Cubs, Heyward gave us 7.1 total in 7 years. These are not the same thing. 

[mul21]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

YAt a more important defensive position, and then 2016 and 2017 league wide had .739 and .750 OPS while 2023 and 2024 have .734 and .701 (jesus something is broken). 

I'm convinced it's the ball again.  MLB needs to pick something and stick with it so we don't keep having these insane yoyo seasons where nobody knows what to expect.

[We Got The Whole 9]

13 minutes ago, thawv said:

His hard hit rate and exit velo is falling fast though.  

Even beside that, we had an article here that showed all of the batted-balls he had that were classified as hard-hit and he did not get a hit off of and the majority of them were either grounders right at a fielder or long flyouts to CF. Both of these are basic killers of BIP these days so big whoop. His xstats need to be taken with a little salt. The BBK improvement is cool but hes pretty easy to defend against if you keep him in the yard (like pretty much the entire lineup)

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Cuzi said:

 Trading Morel last offseason would have been an infinitely tougher decision than trading any of those players you mentioned. The only thing to give Hoyer credit for would be that he seemingly maximized their value in return, that being said we haven't seen a damn thing yet from those returns and its 3 seasons later. Morel has a ton of control loaded with the potential of his bat, with the others the potential was all used up and it got them a WS... job well done. The problem for the Cubs is that Morels most successful defensive position isn't available.

Well we don't really know how he'd do at 2B or SS either, we've only seen him there a little bit.  He might be a MI, or a DH.  On a team like the Cubs that desperately needed surplus it wouldn't have made sense to trade him other than acquiring a young 3B that can actually play some D.  If Morel was hitting better this year I don't think we'd be complaining much.