Midseason Prospect List Updates

[Tim]

2 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

I will have him higher than that on my list.

[Post Count Padder]

Vasquez graduated? He barely played?

For the somewhat uneducated,  is Long a product of system adjustments that will stick or is he gonna be a Haydn McGeary one year wonder?

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Post Count Padder said:

Vasquez graduated? He barely played?

For the somewhat uneducated,  is Long a product of system adjustments that will stick or is he gonna be a Haydn McGeary one year wonder?

Long is a year younger, has better contact numbers, and did most of his dominating at AA instead of A+.  So I do think he's a better prospect.  That said McGeary is definitely someone to keep in the back of our minds as to the perils of a popup guy who needs to be pretty much completely carried by his bat to succeed. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The Cubs now have 8 top 100 prospects.

[Tim]

5 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

The Cubs now have 8 top 100 prospects.

I'd have:

• Smith much higher (I've got him at #2)
• Triantos below Alcantara
• Horton over Caissie, but I get the added risk here

But it's a fine list and all defensible. 

[Bertz]

I'm a bit torn on that Cam ranking.  On the one hand if he got mid 1st round draft grades from your publication, 6 weeks of beating up on kids in A ball shouldn't change your mind on him very much.

On the other hand, I could have said the same thing about Hoerner and Shaw (and I'm pretty sure with Hoerner I did) and those aggressive bumps were completely vindicated.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm a bit torn on that Cam ranking.  On the one hand if he got mid 1st round draft grades from your publication, 6 weeks of beating up on kids in A ball shouldn't change your mind on him very much.

On the other hand, I could have said the same thing about Hoerner and Shaw (and I'm pretty sure with Hoerner I did) and those aggressive bumps were completely vindicated.

Degree probably matters here too.  10 of the first 13 picks this year were college hitters, and while many of them hit well, the only one to clearly exceed Smith's pro production is Christian Moore.

[Donzo]

8 hours ago, Bertz said:

I'm a bit torn on that Cam ranking.  On the one hand if he got mid 1st round draft grades from your publication, 6 weeks of beating up on kids in A ball shouldn't change your mind on him very much.

It kinda relative. Hitting against some freshman who'll never play pro ball is a lot easier than A ball, especially A+ (MB).

For level of play, he graduated HS in 2022. A/A+ ball is a fair spot. Ending the season in AA is definately a plus for him.

Edited October 4, 2024 by Donzo

[craig]

Interesting that Rojas made list.  I wasn't sure that .245/.310/.336 with only 6 HR and 10 doubles would make a guy top-100.   The writeup also questions whether he'll really stick at SS, or will move off.  Encouraging that their scouting observation is favorable enough to still rank him that high.  

[craig]

I'm fine with Cam being that high.  I'd rank him higher than 7th on my Cubs list. 

1. Shiny-new-toy over-rating is obviously possible, and his history is too short to know.  So of course he may end up being significantly flawed once those flaws have time to manifest.
2. But my feeling is that a big-power-potential guy taken in the first has a high ceiling.  No evidence yet that flaws will limit.  So I'm going to dream big dreams until there is reason to tone them down. 
3. Positional fit shouldn't matter to pipeline, but it does to me.  Early input suggests that Smith can play a good 3B and has a big arm for it.  The possibility of locking down 3B with a good-hitting power guy is appealing.  The path for him seems very straightforward.  

[Cubs420psd]

I still don't understand the Rojas hype but ok.

 

How is Cam Smith 73 but JJ is already in the top 20?

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Cubs420psd said:

I still don't understand the Rojas hype but ok.

 

How is Cam Smith 73 but JJ is already in the top 20?

The Rojas hype is based on projection. He's a young kid, who's really, mainly, missing the power stroke currently. Approach wise he's beyond his years. He's got the body size that 15-20 home run power is real, and if you get that, average defense at SS and the approach, you've got a really good player.

Sure, the numbers aren't super pretty, but evaluation goes beyond numbers. It's context, and frankly, it's all guessing any ways. So it's cool if Rojas isn't your guy right now (I'd not place him in the top-100, personally). But I think understanding why some people are high on him is pretty easy to see, as well. 

[Bertz]

Rojas was the 3rd youngest guy to rack up at least 300 PAs in Hi A this year.  And while the production was light, no red flags in terms of BBs, Ks, or GBs.  Like 1908 I think having him on the top 100 is a bit aggressive, but he's a very very good prospect.

[Outshined_One]

58 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Rojas was the 3rd youngest guy to rack up at least 300 PAs in Hi A this year.  And while the production was light, no red flags in terms of BBs, Ks, or GBs.  Like 1908 I think having him on the top 100 is a bit aggressive, but he's a very very good prospect.

It's reminiscent of Starlin Castro when he had his breakout season in 2009. The numbers didn't pop, but the projection (due in large part to age) was through the roof and the fact that he produced at High A/AA at his age merited prospecticators strapping a rocket to his back.

Rojas has plenty of work left to do, but he's advanced for his age and plays a premium position.

[allen6510w]

Baseball America (Josh Norris) just posted a list of the top 31 prospects in the DSL this summer.  No Cubs made the list but there were 4 players from the Orioles, 3 from the Guardians, 2 from the Brewers, Cardinals, Angels, Rangers, Twins, Red Sox, and Pirates and 1 from the Marlins, Rays, Dodgers, Astros, Nationals, Yankees, Giants, Rockies, Royals, and Reds. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

9 minutes ago, allen6510w said:

Baseball America (Josh Norris) just posted a list of the top 31 prospects in the DSL this summer.  No Cubs made the list but there were 4 players from the Orioles, 3 from the Guardians, 2 from the Brewers, Cardinals, Angels, Rangers, Twins, Red Sox, and Pirates and 1 from the Marlins, Rays, Dodgers, Astros, Nationals, Yankees, Giants, Rockies, Royals, and Reds. 

It stinks Jesús Made looks like another elite Brewers prospect.

[CubfanBen]

It seems like the cubs international scouting department hasn’t been as good lately. Maybe it’s just me.

[Tryptamine]

21 minutes ago, CubfanBen said:

It seems like the cubs international scouting department hasn’t been as good lately. Maybe it’s just me.

They did snag Moises Ballesteros, and Cristian Hernandez has reestablished himself, but yeah it's been kind of just ok overall. They're definitely doing far more work on the rule 4 draft.

[Bertz]

5 minutes ago, CubfanBen said:

It seems like the cubs international scouting department hasn’t been as good lately. Maybe it’s just me.

It's so hard to say with these things.  Miguel Amaya signed in 2015 for instance.  So 8 years to debut, and 9 years to (assuming for a moment his second half breakout was real) established yourself as an everyday player?  There's a lost COVID year and a couple injuries but still 6/7/8 years is pretty normal.

They clearly knew what they were doing the first half of Theo's tenure circa 2012-2015 when they signed Amaya, Eloy, Gleyber, Soler, etc.  Conversely, It seems pretty clear they were a mess the second half of Theo's tenure.  Unless I'm missing someone Richard Gallardo and Pablo Aliendo are the only guys from '16 - '19 that look like they have any shot at still being big leaguers.

But in 2019 we know the front office got shaken up a lot and modernized.  So there is reasonable likelihood that a few years from now we will look back at an inflection point in '20 or '21 when the spigot turned back on.  Cristian Hernandez, Jefferson Rojas, Pedro Ramirez all look relatively promising.  The team traded for Daniel Palencia and Kevin Alcantara after minimal stateside playing time as well, which I think you can give some level of partial credit to the IFA apparatus for (though to be fair, maybe you give them partial blame for the Darvish trade too).

Again we're not far enough along to say the issue is fixed, but there's growing plausible evidence that it is.

[CubfanBen]

They let go of a lot of their top scouts during Covid to save money. But it just seems like the brewers do more with less resources in that area.

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

It's so hard to say with these things.  Miguel Amaya signed in 2015 for instance.  So 8 years to debut, and 9 years to (assuming for a moment his second half breakout was real) established yourself as an everyday player?  There's a lost COVID year and a couple injuries but still 6/7/8 years is pretty normal.

They clearly knew what they were doing the first half of Theo's tenure circa 2012-2015 when they signed Amaya, Eloy, Gleyber, Soler, etc.  Conversely, It seems pretty clear they were a mess the second half of Theo's tenure.  Unless I'm missing someone Richard Gallardo and Pablo Aliendo are the only guys from '16 - '19 that look like they have any shot at still being big leaguers.

But in 2019 we know the front office got shaken up a lot and modernized.  So there is reasonable likelihood that a few years from now we will look back at an inflection point in '20 or '21 when the spigot turned back on.  Cristian Hernandez, Jefferson Rojas, Pedro Ramirez all look relatively promising.  The team traded for Daniel Palencia and Kevin Alcantara after minimal stateside playing time as well, which I think you can give some level of partial credit to the IFA apparatus for (though to be fair, maybe you give them partial blame for the Darvish trade too).

Again we're not far enough along to say the issue is fixed, but there's growing plausible evidence that it is.

 

[Bertz]

Looks like Eric Longehagen is going to do his Cubs prospect list early this year instead of June like the last two years

Quote

 

12:31

Eric: When do the team lists start do you plan to change the order of how you release them?

12:32

Eric A Longenhagen: Next week. Foreign pros, Angels, A’s to start. Cubs/Giants/Rockies/D’Backs (not necessarily in that order) after that.

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Cubs' BA top 10 comes out on Monday too.