The Super Bowl and Stupid Bets thread, Year 2

[SpongeWorthy]

the unparalleled offensive genius Kyle Shanahan deserved to lose 

taking the ball first in playoff OT is coaching malpractice 

[Derwood]

Mahomes is going to beat you 100% of the time in that situation 

[Derwood]

 

[Tim]

Has democracy collapsed yet? I can't tell

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Mahomes with 100% of aikman's Super Bowls now.

 

I just found out I play hockey with the woman who wrote that tweet 

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

On 2/8/2024 at 3:12 PM, JudasIscariotTheBird said:

I needed to clear 2K in bets to get 1K in bonus bets, so my standard bets were:

500 on under 51.5 at -194

500 on under 6.5 Aiyuk targets at -115

500 on over 16.5 Watson total yards at -110 

500 on under 9.5 1st quarter total points at -115

And my bonus bets:

250 on Rice first TD scorer at +1000

250 on Deebo first TD scorer at +900

500 on a parlay: Pacheco under 67.5 rushing, Kelce under 6.5 receptions, Aiyuk under 4.5 receptions at +540

 

Fingers crossed!

None of my long shots hit (although Deebo was close) but all of my short odds hit, so I won 1.5k on the bonus whoring. 

At the end of regulation, I was tied with 5 other people for first, and was winning 54k in the Underdog contest (which was best case scenario). When Pacheco passed MVSin fantasy scoring in overtime, I was now tied with 40 people instead, so I only won 14k. Still, a pretty good outcome. Drank some (Pacheco) processco in semi-celebration. Hosting a SB party makes it tough a sweat SB bets. 

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

https://twitter.com/ArtButSports/status/1756840892403445911?t=A7M8dENjSyuG4K5VyOhxXg&s=19

[soccer10k]

I was hoping the KC kicker would win the game with a FG in OT so we could see if he would actually get named the MVP. In that scenario he would have been 5-5, hit a game tying FG in regulation, a game winning FG in overtime plus the longest ever kick in a Super Bowl.

They probably still give it to Mahomes but a kicker going 5-5 and being responsible for 16 of the 22 points would have had a good case.

[NorthsideAvenger]

I found the "Deadpool and Wolverine" trailer to be more entertaining than the actual game.

Get better script writers, NFL.  (<---Obviously being sarcastic here.)

[Rob]

10 hours ago, Tim said:

Has democracy collapsed yet? I can't tell

Yes, but we're enjoying this brief interregnum.

[Rob]

10 hours ago, SpongeWorthy said:

the unparalleled offensive genius Kyle Shanahan deserved to lose 

taking the ball first in playoff OT is coaching malpractice 

Yeah, I didn't get that. Maybe it was meant give their defensive unit a break, since they'd just been driven deep down the field?

When they were explaining the new OT rules, that was the only feasible explanation I could come up with why anybody would want the ball first in OT.

[Brian707]

7 hours ago, soccer10k said:

I was hoping the KC kicker would win the game with a FG in OT so we could see if he would actually get named the MVP. In that scenario he would have been 5-5, hit a game tying FG in regulation, a game winning FG in overtime plus the longest ever kick in a Super Bowl.

They probably still give it to Mahomes but a kicker going 5-5 and being responsible for 16 of the 22 points would have had a good case.

Yup, and if SF had won the game I wonder if they would have given it to Jennings. He was 300-1 on my prop sheet lol. Receiving TD and passing TD.

[Brian707]

12 minutes ago, Rob said:

Yeah, I didn't get that. Maybe it was meant give their defensive unit a break, since they'd just been driven deep down the field?

When they were explaining the new OT rules, that was the only feasible explanation I could come up with why anybody would want the ball first in OT.

Yeah it would be like going to extra innings in baseball and asking to bat first

[Hairyducked Idiot]

11 hours ago, SpongeWorthy said:

the unparalleled offensive genius Kyle Shanahan deserved to lose 

taking the ball first in playoff OT is coaching malpractice 

It's 100% the correct call to take the ball and it's shocking to me that so many people are arguing against it.

If you're so terrified of "letting the other team have four downs" or whatever, take four downs yourself.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 hour ago, Brian707 said:

Yeah it would be like going to extra innings in baseball and asking to bat first

If extra innings became sudden death starting in the 11th

[Old Style]

I hit the scoreless quarter prop I placed after the first quarter which was nice. Missed on my other 3 so I basically broke even. The one bet I didn’t make that I was torn on was of course the game going to OT. That would have paid nicely. But alas as is my story I passed on that one. 

[BigSlick]

This was an exceedingly entertaining game but the thing that most struck me was how the Niners played an archetypical Bears game: Dominate much of the game defensively, mediocre QB play, squander turnovers/chances, lose late to a better QB. 

[Cubfanintheknow]

On 2/3/2024 at 7:29 PM, javy knows my name said:

This little sentence has the most qualifiers I've ever seen! Not judging; celebrating, really

 

2 hours ago, Rob said:

Yeah, I didn't get that. Maybe it was meant give their defensive unit a break, since they'd just been driven deep down the field?

When they were explaining the new OT rules, that was the only feasible explanation I could come up with why anybody would want the ball first in OT.

I keep going back to the moment right after the two minute warning. 3rd down. Picking up a first could have helped them kill all of KC's time outs. Shanahan should have called a time out. Take a look at how KC was lining up defensively. They had the time outs to kill to get it right.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

It's 100% the correct call to take the ball and it's shocking to me that so many people are arguing against it.

If you're so terrified of "letting the other team have four downs" or whatever, take four downs yourself.

Huh?  Knowing for certain that you need a FG for a tie (or even a win) or that you need a TD to keep the game going is a huge advantage.  Now, if that advantage is enough to make up for the fact that just scoring two TDs on your first two possesions becomes a win...I'm not certain. Thinking about it more, it's probably not enough to want to defer. Probably depends on a lot of match-up dependent things.  The rule is horrible, regardless.  Just do the college system.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Never forget Shanahan is the reason 28-3 will forever be a meme

[Andy]

3 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

It's 100% the correct call to take the ball and it's shocking to me that so many people are arguing against it.

If you're so terrified of "letting the other team have four downs" or whatever, take four downs yourself.

I think it's a defensible call to take the ball first, but I don't know if it's 100% anything. There is some advantage at having the first crack at sudden death if it comes to it, but I imagine it's hard to quantify, especially with such limited data.

[mul21]

[Hairyducked Idiot]

3 hours ago, mul21 said:

I've seen enough today to change my mind on this, that it actually is a close call. 

[BigSlick]

Yeah at no point did I think getting the ball first was definitively the wrong call - but this was literally the first game I've seen where they used the new rules. 

 

I wish the NFL just took on Soccer rules and had a full quarter (no sudden death, no trading possessions, just 15 minutes of football) as how overtime works. If, after an extra quarter of play, it remains tied, in the regular season its a tie. If its the playoffs, you keep playing quarters until one ends with someone with a lead. Simple enough. I don't get it. 

Edited February 13, 2024 by BigSlick

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

I wish the NFL just took on Soccer rules and had a full quarter (no sudden death, no trading possessions, just 15 minutes of football) as how overtime works. If, after an extra quarter of play, it remains tied, in the regular season its a tie. If its the playoffs, you keep playing quarters until one ends with someone with a lead. Simple enough. I don't get it. 

I don't get it either, make it 10 mins in the regular season if you're that worried about wear and tear. Anecdotally I feel like nearly every OT game I saw had 5 mins or fewer left at the end, so I'm not exactly sure what the more roundabout rules are doing in practice anyway.