Article: Michael Busch, Get Your First Baseman's Mitt. Matt Mervis, Pack Your Bags?

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Both corners of the Cubs infield remain sources of uncertainty, if not outright confusion. Their big trade with the Dodgers early this month has offered new possibilities, but not (yet) a clear solution.

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

When the Chicago Cubs first acquired Michael Busch from the Los Angeles Dodgers, my instinct was to immediately evaluate him as part of the picture at third base. The Cubs lacked certainty at both infield corners, sure. But given Busch’s prior role in Los Angeles and an easier road to clarity at first base, it was the logical fit. 

My justification existed within that future projection. Patrick Wisdom strikes out too much, for a guy who plays subpar defense. Nick Madrigal doesn’t have the offensive profile needed to play regularly, despite his great glove. The organization has shown almost no interest in allowing Christopher Morel to ply his trade at the spot on anything resembling a long-term basis. On the other side, the team was linked to Rhys Hoskins all winter, with Matt Mervis also waiting for another crack at nabbing a permanent role at the top level. 

So, in the face of people much smarter than me declaring otherwise, I honed in on third base as Busch’s immediate spot with the Cubs. Since that time, Hoskins has signed in Milwaukee. Pete Alonso, an apparent trade candidate from the winter’s outset, doesn’t appear likely to be moved prior to his own free agency. With that, there’s also this from Carter Hawkins (via Marquee😞

“Our expectation is he’s on the Opening Day roster," Hawkins said. "I think there’s obviously opportunity at first base — that’s kind of the easy plug-and-play. He’s got really good reviews defensively over there from our scouts that have seen him, from talking to the Dodgers, from obviously seeing him over there.”

Hawkins also offered the caveat that Busch does have a history of time at second and third. He noted that third base will require extensive work from a defensive standpoint, something that makes plenty of sense given the organization’s commitment to upper-tier defense. Nevertheless, the Hoskins signing is what likely seals this more than anything. With no viable candidates existing outside the organization at present, it’s likely going to be Busch, no matter what misguided inklings I had at the time of the trade. 

Busch’s professional experience at the position is minimal. In 2023, at Triple A, he started seven games at first base. He spent 10 innings there across four games in the majors, but no starts. That’s it. Until he was drafted, though, first base was his primary position. He played 158 games there at North Carolina, and another 66 in wood-bat summer leagues. He's more comfortable at that spot than anywhere else on the diamond, even if he hasn't made it his primary home in a few years.

It makes sense to stick Busch at first, especially since the path to clarity now seems more obvious on the other side of the infield. You can survive with a combination of Wisdom and Madrigal there. You can sign Matt Chapman. There are a couple of prospects scratching the upper levels of the minors. The intrigue exists far more there (in both the short and long term) than it does at first base. Busch as the guy getting the run out of the gate makes multiple degrees of sense.

Of course, that also creates a massive question pertaining to one former darling prospect: Matt Mervis. After his power bat broke him onto the scene as a potential future first baseman, he sipped 99 plate appearances' worth of coffee in 2023. That culminated in a .167/.242/.289 line, with an ISO of just .122 and a strikeout rate a touch over 32 percent. Mervis went to Iowa and adjustments were made, but not to the degree of really impacting outcomes. Cody Bellinger’s extensive, health-related run at the spot helped to hold Mervis down indefinitely. In terms of the “future” context, Mervis’s demotion seemed more permanent, as the discussion moved to names like Alonso or Hoskins. 

Busch anchoring first base would seem to indicate a fair amount of gloom and doom for Mervis’s future on the North Side. Busch doesn’t offer the power that Mervis could, but his 20-plus homer potential isn’t exactly a far cry from Mervis's upside. Add in more contact and more athleticism and there’s plenty of logic in it being Busch over Mervis. When you add in Morel’s standing as the team’s full-time designated hitter, Mervis gets squeezed out, quickly and easily.

So it would, in fact, appear that the Cubs were at least able to solve one part of their corner infield puzzle with the Busch acquisition. Maybe they even answered the question of what happens with Mervis moving forward (if Busch succeeds). Third base is still in question, but there are bodies available, inside and outside of the organization. Maybe Busch thrives and Mervis hits. That would be a nice problem to have. Regardless of the way it shakes out, though, it’s a situation that offers far more intrigue than hoping Eric Hosmer and/or Trey Mancini can hold it down over the course of a full season.

Where do you like Busch's fit on the roster best? Would you make room for Mervis, or start looking to trade him? Weigh in below, and let's get a brainstorm going.

View full article

[Stratos]

20 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

There’s plenty of room for both. The Cubs aren’t exactly in a position to be moving cheap flyball hitting LH power options. I’m still bugged by the uncritical elevation of Mervis (just last March pretty much all fan content about the guy was how he neeeeeeded to start with the Cubs) quickly turning into the unceremonious dumping of Mervis an hour later for having more or less easy to see coming/predict issues. I get it - cruel world, Business, Smart yada yada but it says something about the fanbase, media, and fly by night nature of the prospect meta that is just not impressive. Mervis isn’t so dramatically different from where he really was entering 2023, and personally don’t necessarily buy the new narrative that the Cubs clearly Hate him so much that he’s in the MLB club and on the 40. 

Mervis ZiPs 2024: .251/.322/.439/.327/106

Cubs 1B 2023: .241/.299/.414/.307/92

Cubs DH 2023: 

.217/.287/.425/.304/90

Ftr his 2023 ZiPs:

.253/.311/.448/.325/105

The guy was never the savior Cubs prospectlandia tried to turn him into but there’s tons of room btw super mega ultra duper savior and super mega ultra duper bust. Its not as if they need to commit if he does well, just enjoy the benefit of more trade Value. That’s the sweet sweet power of having so much more control over so many people’s paths

Agree with this post.  Lots of fans seem to overreact about everything.  If Cubs want LHB in the lineup Mervis can always DH.  It doesn't make much sense to trade him right now.   Maybe next year sure.  He's still a good hitting prospect

[Rcal10]

31 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

There’s plenty of room for both. The Cubs aren’t exactly in a position to be moving cheap flyball hitting LH power options. I’m still bugged by the uncritical elevation of Mervis (just last March pretty much all fan content about the guy was how he neeeeeeded to start with the Cubs) quickly turning into the unceremonious dumping of Mervis an hour later for having more or less easy to see coming/predict issues. I get it - cruel world, Business, Smart yada yada but it says something about the fanbase, media, and fly by night nature of the prospect meta that is just not impressive. Mervis isn’t so dramatically different from where he really was entering 2023, and personally don’t necessarily buy the new narrative that the Cubs clearly Hate him so much that he’s in the MLB club and on the 40. 

Mervis ZiPs 2024: .251/.322/.439/.327/106

Cubs 1B 2023: .241/.299/.414/.307/92

Cubs DH 2023: 

.217/.287/.425/.304/90

Ftr his 2023 ZiPs:

.253/.311/.448/.325/105

The guy was never the savior Cubs prospectlandia tried to turn him into but there’s tons of room btw super mega ultra duper savior and super mega ultra duper bust. Its not as if they need to commit if he does well, just enjoy the benefit of more trade Value. That’s the sweet sweet power of having so much more control over so many people’s paths

Regardless of what anyone thinks of Mervis, unless either Busch or Morel can play 3rd, I don’t see a spot for him. Busch at 1st and Morel at DH seems to be the plan. Injuries happen, Busch might not cut it. I am not suggesting trading Mervis. I am just saying as the Cubs plan for 2024, he doesn’t appear to be a part of the major league plan. There is also a lot of negative underlying issues with him as others have pointed out. He very well can be an AAAA ballplayer. 

[Illiterate Scholar]

I feel like a portion of Cubs fans are the only group that still views Mervis as a potential solution. It's the prospect lists, neutral observers, and the Cubs FO that seemingly has their doubts.

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

I feel like a portion of Cubs fans are the only group that still views Mervis as a potential solution. It's the prospect lists, neutral observers, and the Cubs FO that seemingly has their doubts.

I'll admit: working his way through the MiLB in 2022 and into 2023, I was pretty excited for Mervis. The data I had available to me (at the time) suggested a pretty good approach and bat, and the eye test suggested it as well. Even the small run in the MLB had underlying interesting metrics. Then I got access to statcast data for Matt Mervis in Triple-A...and I've soured on him, because the lines hide the processes you can better see with the statcast stuff. 

I don't think he's a dead prospect, but I don't think he's got much of a pathway to find success in Chicago right now. He's blocked many places. And with his age, he's at a point where he kind of needs to play....and realistically that place he plays should be at the MLB level (Triple-A just isn't challenging him, even with some iffy processes). I think there's some progress over the winter that can be had, but I'm not where I was before on him, and I think I can see why the Cubs were concerned (and didn't promote him in September over other players, like Young). I really hope he succeeds, but I don't have the confidence in Mervis I had previously.

[CubinNY]

Mervis is in a really tough situation. He's not going to get a shot unless injuries happen and he's performing at a high level in AAA. He's about to become a career minor leaguer. The best thing for him would be to be released or traded, but he still has relative value for the Cubs who are unlikely to do that.

[Backtobanks]

49 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Why would being unemployed be better? Does that really create *more* or better opportunity for him *or* the Cubs? 

The best thing for him and Cubs - probably by far - would be to hit for a competitive Cubs team in 2024 

The best thing for him would be to be traded in a package deal where he goes to a team that might have a path for him.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I'd been advised previously that every organization has a Mervis already

[I owned a Suzuki]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

To what? Enlightenment? What’re we taaaaaalking about here? Making up extra complicated homework to find something as vague as “a path” for one player just so he doesn’t potentially get in Christopher Morel’s already unblocked way? That seems insane 

I’d agree a trade makes way more sense than release, is way more likely, but it’s hard to imagine a good one popping up anytime soon

I think his reality is he has more value with the Cubs then we would get back in a trade, Therefore he is kind of screwed unless he just forces the issue with his play

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

To what? Enlightenment? What’re we taaaaaalking about here? Making up extra complicated homework to find something as vague as “a path” for one player just so he doesn’t potentially get in Christopher Morel’s already unblocked way? That seems insane 

I’d agree a trade makes way more sense than release, is way more likely, but it’s hard to imagine a good one popping up anytime soon

Mervis has a trade value of 4.9 @ MLBTV which means he could easily be a 3rd player in a package deal to a team needing a potential power bat.  Obviously he's not going to be the primary piece in any trade for something we need.

[Backtobanks]

6 minutes ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

I think his reality is he has more value with the Cubs then we would get back in a trade, Therefore he is kind of screwed unless he just forces the issue with his play

The trade would have to be a package deal with Mervis probably being the third piece.

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Regardless of what anyone thinks of Mervis, unless either Busch or Morel can play 3rd, I don’t see a spot for him. Busch at 1st and Morel at DH seems to be the plan. Injuries happen, Busch might not cut it. I am not suggesting trading Mervis. I am just saying as the Cubs plan for 2024, he doesn’t appear to be a part of the major league plan. There is also a lot of negative underlying issues with him as others have pointed out. He very well can be an AAAA ballplayer. 

Why would trying Morel at 3B not be the plan?  Mervis can DH

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Tbf the guy is a 26 YO 1B/DH prospect. He was, at best, a 6th round pick in the 5 round 2020 draft, and alot of that is being a 22 YO senior willing to take $20K or whatever the cap for UDFAs was. He hit .204/.309/.367 with a lg avg K rate in A ball (decent periphs overall). His breakout season came at 24 YO and started in the low minors. He didn’t save the Cubs last year as many fans and media expected him to. These are all ingredients for doubt - most stuff I was pointing out last offseason -and year - and any rational person would have them, but also most of this stuff was true and available to open 2023 

I’m probably as leery of the dramatic swing in public opinion now as I was Mervis entering 2023, both seem forced or contrived for max drama. It’d be one thing if Mervis was looked at rationally the whole time, but he wasn’t

Everyone thinks the Cubs are down on Mervis.  He's a good hitting prospect, nothing has changed.  But you also don't bank on a position being filled by a rookie if you plan to contend.  I highly doubt the Cubs would go into 2024 with Busch as their only good option at 1B either.  Busch gets the shot at 1B over Mervis because he's the more advanced prospect so he gets first crack, it's not a reflection on Mervis, it's a reflection on Busch vis a vis Mervis.  But Mervis is also there in case Busch struggles or is hurt.  There's lots of things the Cubs can do with Busch and Mervis.  Maybe Morel can't play 3B well and heads back to DH, Busch goes to 3B, and Mervis is the 1B.  We don't know.

The Cubs like options and depth as they should.  The Cubs really have no idea what Counsell is going to end up doing or what injuries will happen or who will perform vs struggle, they're just giving Counsell lots of solid options.  We have no definitive idea who will end up at 3B, 1B, and DH and neither do the Cubs.  Giving Busch a shot at 1B and using Morel/Madrigal at 3B and whomever at DH is a good starting point.  Nobody last year thought Bellinger would end up at 1B and Tauchman our starting CF and Madrigal really good defensively at 3B.

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, Stratos said:

Why would trying Morel at 3B not be the plan?  Mervis can DH

Stratos do you pay attention to anything going on? Or just blindly comment. I have been a huge proponent of Morel playing 3rd. But everything you read and hear suggest that is not the Cubs plan. It just doesn’t seem he can do it or that they are even working on him doing it. 

Edited January 27, 2024 by Rcal10

[Bertz]

- The Cubs last winter signed Eric Hosmer to man 1B instead of just pairing Mervis with the RHH Mancini

- The Cubs gave Matt Mervis less than 100 plate appearances before sending him back to Iowa

- The Cubs used Miles Mastrobuoni and as their primary LHH bat off the bench for most of the summer

- On not one but two separate occasions last year the Cubs added Jared Young to the 40 man and called him up because they wanted a LHH bat for 1B

- The Cubs traded for a different 26 year old AAA 1B and have indicated that he will be an everyday player, primarily at 1B

How anyone can think the org has any faith in Mervis is wild to me.  One or two of the above can be handwaved away, but all 5? They could very easily be wrong, but the Cubs clearly do not think anything of Matt Mervis.

[Thusly Boned]

39 minutes ago, Bertz said:

- The Cubs last winter signed Eric Hosmer to man 1B instead of just pairing Mervis with the RHH Mancini

- The Cubs gave Matt Mervis less than 100 plate appearances before sending him back to Iowa

- The Cubs used Miles Mastrobuoni and as their primary LHH bat off the bench for most of the summer

- On not one but two separate occasions last year the Cubs added Jared Young to the 40 man and called him up because they wanted a LHH bat for 1B

- The Cubs traded for a different 26 year old AAA 1B and have indicated that he will be an everyday player, primarily at 1B

How anyone can think the org has any faith in Mervis is wild to me.  One or two of the above can be handwaved away, but all 5? They could very easily be wrong, but the Cubs clearly do not think anything of Matt Mervis.

Yeah, right or wrong, it's patently obvious the team didn't like what they saw in Mervis, and don't plan to give him a major role. Trading for Busch and all but naming him the 1B was the final nail in the coffin in my mind. 

[Backtobanks]

16 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

You mean like the Cubs?

End of the day the Cubs shouldn’t be moving on from players because fans got bored and frustrated with a couple wks of stats at a new level. That’s just as reactionary as last year, an overcorrection in the other direction. Could he be the third in a trade with a mystery team with a master plan for a mystery player before the season? Sure, but obviously most likely not 

It's obvious the front office has given up on him too.  The only reason it's a mystery team with a mystery plan for a mystery player is because Jed is asleep at the wheel.  There are (were) trades to be made, but He's going to wait out the pre-season trying to get to 82 wins and hoping to squeeze out 85 and sneak into the playoffs.

[Backtobanks]

3 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Parroting and pandering is pretty lame man. I'm most curious what Hoyer did to be elevated to He!

 

He got elevated to "He" when Theo promoted him from coffee gopher to a real title.

 

[Petrey10]

I just don’t understand how the MLBs 6th best 1B prospect isn’t given a chance to play 1B on the mlb roster. 
 

I’m not saying he’s the next Derek Lee but signing Hosmer and Mancini last year and now trading for Busch just shows me the Cubs for some reason don’t have faith in Mervis.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

On 1/27/2024 at 7:45 AM, Petrey10 said:

I just don’t understand how the MLBs 6th best 1B prospect isn’t given a chance to play 1B on the mlb roster. 
 

I’m not saying he’s the next Derek Lee but signing Hosmer and Mancini last year and now trading for Busch just shows me the Cubs for some reason don’t have faith in Mervis.

6th best prospect at a position that is mostly populated with subpar athletes in the minors just ... isn't that good.

Mervis was just never that good. He got a lot of fan love because the fanbase was eager for a high-minors prospect to latch onto, but he was just never that good and he's ending up exactly what he was always destined to be: A career AAAer who carves out some cups of coffee here and there.

[BigbadB]

On 1/26/2024 at 7:38 PM, Bertz said:

- The Cubs last winter signed Eric Hosmer to man 1B instead of just pairing Mervis with the RHH Mancini

- The Cubs gave Matt Mervis less than 100 plate appearances before sending him back to Iowa

- The Cubs used Miles Mastrobuoni and as their primary LHH bat off the bench for most of the summer

- On not one but two separate occasions last year the Cubs added Jared Young to the 40 man and called him up because they wanted a LHH bat for 1B

- The Cubs traded for a different 26 year old AAA 1B and have indicated that he will be an everyday player, primarily at 1B

How anyone can think the org has any faith in Mervis is wild to me.  One or two of the above can be handwaved away, but all 5? They could very easily be wrong, but the Cubs clearly do not think anything of Matt Mervis.

While you are right about most, if not all, of everything here, Ross is no longer captaining this team. He is a play the vets manager, and Counsell isn't sold on the same idea. I'm not saying they will now hand the keys to a certain position to Mervis, but he should get a better opportunity to provide his ability to this team. I could see him start the year in Iowa, or as an extra bat off the bench/spot starter at the big league level. A lot of where he starts could depend entirely on how good of a Spring he has. 

I don't think they should be closing the door to Morel or Busch at 3rd base, since you could afford a bit of weaker defense at 3rd for 6 innings (Madrigal can be a defensive replacement) for the extra bat early in games. Morel is a righty bat at DH. Mervis is a lefty bat at DH. While a full on platoon might not make sense, you might want Morel to have 66% of the plate time at DH if that's the position he's destined, then 33% for Mervis vs. tough righties is still a nice amount of plate time. Then if you can get one of Busch or Morel to be a decent enough 3b for half a game or more, Mervis' ability to play 1b and provide another lefty bat could be quite valuable. 

I'd rather see them give Mervis a crack at the roster than Wisdom. But, I'm also still in the camp of sign Chapman and Bellinger. And yes, I know that blocks a lot of prospects. Trade some of those prospects at the deadline for pitching and a strong playoff run. 

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, BigbadB said:

While you are right about most, if not all, of everything here, Ross is no longer captaining this team. He is a play the vets manager, and Counsell isn't sold on the same idea. I'm not saying they will now hand the keys to a certain position to Mervis, but he should get a better opportunity to provide his ability to this team. I could see him start the year in Iowa, or as an extra bat off the bench/spot starter at the big league level. A lot of where he starts could depend entirely on how good of a Spring he has. 

I don't think they should be closing the door to Morel or Busch at 3rd base, since you could afford a bit of weaker defense at 3rd for 6 innings (Madrigal can be a defensive replacement) for the extra bat early in games. Morel is a righty bat at DH. Mervis is a lefty bat at DH. While a full on platoon might not make sense, you might want Morel to have 66% of the plate time at DH if that's the position he's destined, then 33% for Mervis vs. tough righties is still a nice amount of plate time. Then if you can get one of Busch or Morel to be a decent enough 3b for half a game or more, Mervis' ability to play 1b and provide another lefty bat could be quite valuable. 

I'd rather see them give Mervis a crack at the roster than Wisdom. But, I'm also still in the camp of sign Chapman and Bellinger. And yes, I know that blocks a lot of prospects. Trade some of those prospects at the deadline for pitching and a strong playoff run. 

I don’t think they can sign Chapman and Bellinger and be safely under the $257 line. And they are not going past that. I think it is one or the other. 

[BigbadB]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t think they can sign Chapman and Bellinger and be safely under the $257 line. And they are not going past that. I think it is one or the other. 

I'm not so sure they can, either. But it's still the outcome I'm hoping for. The suitors don't seem to be all that enamored with meeting Boras' demands. So who knows how low it can go, or what kind of contract magic can be worked out to make it happen. Obviously, you aren't getting a buy one, get one half off deal. But, there are ways to make it work. I kinda doubt they even go down that road, TBH.