The Defensive Past, Present, and Future of Michael Busch

Within the same calendar day on which their deal with Shōta Imanaga was announced, the Chicago Cubs swung a major trade, too. In this one, they acquired (former?) top prospect Michael Busch & reliever Yency Almonte from the Los Angeles Dodgers. In return, the Cubs sent highly-regarded pitching prospect Jackson Ferris, and 2023 draftee Zyhir Hope, an outfielder. 

It’s not a wildly significant trade on paper. In one description, it’s a couple of guys not on the 40-man roster for a former top prospect being squeezed out of a championship-caliber roster and a reliever out of options. But the ramifications run deep, especially on the Cubs’ end of things. One aspect that seems essential to discuss, though, is the defensive angle of it all.

While there are still moves to be made—if you believe the hype, the Cubs could be in line for multiple marquee free agents before the offseason expires—the early assumption is that Michael Busch could assume a role as the regular starter at either third or first base. It’s an idea worth exploring on multiple levels. 

Busch’s sample at the major-league level is small. He has 81 plate appearances to his name, all of which came in 2023. He doesn’t have a real stretch at the top level to make any determination either way, nor is the mainstream fan base aware of the skill set he brings. Scouting reports don’t love the glove or arm, though, and essentially any overview you read of Busch as a player questions the position at which he’ll spend his time for the foreseeable future.

For the sake of ease, here’s MLB Pipeline, on Busch’s defense: 

Though Busch has fringy speed and arm strength, he has worked hard to improve his quickness and arm since turning pro. Evaluators inside and outside of the organization were impressed at how he has transformed himself into an adequate defender at second base, though the Dodgers have deployed him primarily at third base in 2023. The game speeds up on him at the hot corner, however, and he's still best suited for first base and capable of playing a passable left field.

I am, admittedly, not well-versed on the Dodgers’ system. I know it’s good; it’s good in perpetuity. Virtually every scouting report I’ve seen, though, reflects the same sentiment, and the conclusion of all of them is the idea that Busch does not have a defensive home moving forward—save for maybe first base (where the Cubs also happen to have a long-term need).

Again, that initial vibe is one that has him as the Cubs’ primary guy at third for 2024, perhaps independent of any other moves they would make (short of a Matt Chapman, of course). This makes it a fascinating move for the Cubs, on a couple of levels. The team does not have a long-term option settled on either corner of the infield. That doesn’t mean they don’t have bodies, though. Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Christopher Morel, and Miles Mastrobuoni could, theoretically, all see time there in 2024. Longer-term, someone like BJ Murray, Jr. or (more notably) Matt Shaw represent some upside within the system. 

The organization’s previous reluctance to roll Morel out with any level of consistency at the position probably rules him out. Mastrobuoni isn’t anything more than utility off the bench. As such, of those likely to get the bulk of the starts at third, only Busch, Madrigal, and Wisdom seem realistic. All three bring drastically different types of offense. Defensively, though, it isn’t a difficult puzzle to solve; the job could already be in Busch’s hands. 

Madrigal, without question, exceeded expectations with his glove at the hot corner. Across roughly 560 innings, he went for an Outs Above Average of 10 and posted 8 Defensive Runs Saved. His lack of long-term viability is about his contact-only bat (given what you want out of a corner infield spot), rather than his defense. Interestingly, ruling Wisdom out kind of takes the opposite perspective. Wisdom has the pop (strikeouts notwistanding) to hang in a corner, but it’s his glove as the limiting factor. In over 900 innings in 2022, Wisdom posted -6 DRS and -11 OAA, before going for -5 DRS and -6 OAA in roughly half the time (460 innings) in 2023. 

Busch only has 99 major-league innings at third base. The numbers aren’t terrific, with a DRS of -1 and OAA of -4 in that small sample. You can make the argument that the Cubs were an upper-tier defense even without full-time excellence at third in the last few years. You can also note that having Dansby Swanson to your left—someone who featured an 80 percent success rate in moving to his right—would mitigate some of those concerns. And defense can always be coached up. If Busch made strides at second base, it’s absolutely possible he could demonstrate the type of growth in a full-time switch to third that we saw from Madrigal. The possibility of a platoon with either of the others, both of whom are right-handed bats, exists. That could allow for Busch’s growth within a small sample.

But it is interesting that a team as defense-oriented as the Cubs would be willing to quickly install Busch into their infield picture, given the shortcomings that have been noted throughout his professional career. Which leads me to two conclusions. The first is that we should take seriously (though not at all as gospel) reports that Busch will be the Cubs’ 2024 first baseman. It’s the early assumption, according to the always-reliable Sahadev Sharma, but not close to official yet. The second is that the Cubs believe they can get him moving at a passable rate with the glove, to a point where the massive upside with the bat will help to compensate for any defensive deficiency. All that—this is likely an essential component for the Cubs specifically—without the hefty contract of someone like Chapman.

After the most dull offseason possible, the Cubs have started to create a buzz this week. The infield configuration with Busch in the fold is fascinating, especially when you consider additional signings or a trade of someone like Wisdom on the horizon. It’s a trade that creates questions, but also unlocks all sorts of potential for the balance of this winter.