Chicago Bears offseason

[cwood218]

52 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

oooo that's an interesting idea I hadn't thought of.  That said I'm not sure how much a RB that can't pass block, isn't a major factor in the passing game and has 1 year left on his contract will fetch.  Maybe a 5 or 6 for a team that could use some RB depth.

He has zero trade value.

[WrigleyField 22]

6 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Your Turd Standards are a lot higher than mine. Not as high as truffle's...

Lol

I know it was 15 years ago, but passing standards haven't changed that much.  76 passer rating. 47 QBR. 6.0 Y/A. Bottom 5 in basically any efficency category except comp%, which has its limitations.

 

But hey, it'd be the 5th most passing yardage in a Bears season in history... :shrug: (also most att)

 

 

[BigbadB]

I saw someone's mock yesterday with no trade downs. He had Caleb, Turner, Van Pran, Brendan Rice. 

I thought that seemed like a pretty good draft. Should be other WR's there if you don't like Rice.

Goony went somewhere in his last post that I thought about when he talked about the 4th QB falling more than we might think. If McCarthy makes it past NYG without being drafted, I'd say there's a good chance one of Denver, Minny, Las Vegas or some other QB needy team tries to slide up to 9. Those first 3 are all within the 13th pick, and could still get you a top EDGE if the top WR's are off the board. The comp for moving from 9 to 13 is only about a 4th rounder, but a more QB needy team might offer more. Vikings only have a 4th after their two first round picks. Minny has Darnold. Denver has Stidham and might sign Tannehill?. Las Vegas has Minshew. Penix and Nix are still there, so maybe it comes down to how much one of those teams likes McCarthy more than the other two. 

If you aren't getting decent offers to move down from 9, I'd prefer they take either the top EDGE or WR there and call it good.

It would seem like Minnesota would want to just draft McCarthy with their 11th pick, but that's pretty risky for them. it almost seemed like their trade to pick up a second first rounder might be to jump up even higher, like 3rd overall.

[UMFan83]

Seeing more mocks where 4 QBs and the 3 WRs all go in the first 8 picks.  While I'm still definitely interested in one of the WRs, and also interested in trading down it would not be a horrible thing if the Bears were able to land the top rated QB AND the 2nd best non-QB/WR in the draft.  That's good value.

 

It also makes me think about how if we had won just one less game last year our draft pick would be 6th instead of 9th.  No one would have cared at this point if we were 7-10 or 6-11 but sitting at 6 we'd be in great position to either trade down to a team that wants JJ McCarthy for a decent haul, or potentially draft the 2nd best WR of the group/guarantee one of the big 3 WRs.

Edited March 19, 2024 by UMFan83

[BigSlick]

If there is one of the top flight WRs there at 9, I *don't* want them to trade down. I think this is a year where it's ok if we only have 4 draft picks - sometimes you accumulate assets, sometimes you spend them. 

Poles has signaled this is where he envisions the window is opening with his moves. I appreciate that. 

[Brian707]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

Seeing more mocks where 4 QBs and the 3 WRs all go in the first 8 picks.  While I'm still definitely interested in one of the WRs, and also interested in trading down it would not be a horrible thing if the Bears were able to land the top rated QB AND the 2nd best non-QB/WR in the draft.  That's good value.

 

 

If the draft goes like that, would not surprise me if Poles goes with Olu Fashanu assuming Alt is the lone non QB/WR gone thru the 8th pick. 

 

Edited: That would mean Dallas Turner is there at 9. Damn, what a great problem to have lol

Edited March 19, 2024 by Brian707

[WrigleyField 22]

This is a fake ass account that spews BS, but I unfortunately believe this one.  Our fans are so dumb

 

[Brian707]

I'm sure those dipshits will be wearing that same patch when Caleb Williams goes down Michigan Ave with the Lombardi trophy in 3 years 

[Soul]

I want the best for Fields but man, we would have to hear about it every damn day if he does well in Pittsburgh.

[Thusly Boned]

1 hour ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

This is a fake ass account that spews BS, but I unfortunately believe this one.  Our fans are so dumb

 

Oh FFS people

[Old Style]

That’s asinine and I’m probably one of his biggest supporters on here. 

[minnesotacubsfan]

haha I love it; the Bears can never win when it comes to the QB position. And they SHOULDNT.

 

 

(rereads what i just wrote): great...now I'M kyle

[17 Seconds]

magary is on board

Quote

• Caleb Williams is the best QB prospect in the universe and the only way that the Bears will horsefeathers him up is if he gets hurt. Also, their head coach is a boob, but I’ve watched great QBs flourish under such dingbats before. I fear that the Bears have their horsefeathers together.

https://defector.com/j-j-mccarthy-is-a-false-flag-and-other-notes-from-a-burgeoning-draft-pervert

[Hairyducked Idiot]

12 hours ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

haha I love it; the Bears can never win when it comes to the QB position. And they SHOULDNT.

 

 

(rereads what i just wrote): great...now I'M kyle

Nah, I don't believe in that voodoo, cursed, jersey-scouting BS.  Nor do most of the people who say it, allistics just have this weird obsession with saying things they know aren't true.  

I believe QBs will generally succeed or fail based on their own merits. They are less dictacted by circumstances and more the dictator of circumstances.  Good QB play makes the surrounding offensive cast look good, it makes the coaching staff look like geniuses.  Bad QB play does the opposite.

I think it's as simple as this: if QB development was more about environment and less about skills innate to the player, we'd have more QBs thriving on their second teams instead of it being fairly rare.

I think the Bears QB woes kinda of mirror the Cubs' championship drought: A long period of incompetence followed by a recent period with a different explanation.

The Cubs were run like a poverty franchise until the 1980s, then they had some bad luck in the playoff coinflips until 2016.

The Bears criminally undervalued the QB position because of the "Bear football" identity of running the football and defense.  We started actually investing in the position with Cutler, who did reasonably well for us, then we've mad two draft picks who busted:  A top prospect from a *really* crappy draft class and a 4th QB taken that was dropping down draft boards rapidly due to some glaring flaws.  I don't wanna say that two bust QBs taken by the same long-gone GM is "bad luck," but it doesn't reflect some sort of institutional factor that should be considered when evaluating the odds of our next QB pick working out.

Williams is by far the best QB prospect the Bears have ever considered and is more likely than not to be the best QB the Bears have ever had (in part because that is an *extremely* low bar).    He has room to be disappointing and still be a decent starting QB In the NFL.  I'd place his 25th percentile projection as someone like Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield, and his 75th percentile projection is literally Mahomes 2.0.



 

[WrigleyField 22]

17 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Nah, I don't believe in that voodoo, cursed, jersey-scouting BS.  Nor do most of the people who say it, allistics just have this weird obsession with saying things they know aren't true.  

I believe QBs will generally succeed or fail based on their own merits. They are less dictacted by circumstances and more the dictator of circumstances.  Good QB play makes the surrounding offensive cast look good, it makes the coaching staff look like geniuses.  Bad QB play does the opposite.

I think it's as simple as this: if QB development was more about environment and less about skills innate to the player, we'd have more QBs thriving on their second teams instead of it being fairly rare.

I think the Bears QB woes kinda of mirror the Cubs' championship drought: A long period of incompetence followed by a recent period with a different explanation.

The Cubs were run like a poverty franchise until the 1980s, then they had some bad luck in the playoff coinflips until 2016.

The Bears criminally undervalued the QB position because of the "Bear football" identity of running the football and defense.  We started actually investing in the position with Cutler, who did reasonably well for us, then we've mad two draft picks who busted:  A top prospect from a *really* crappy draft class and a 4th QB taken that was dropping down draft boards rapidly due to some glaring flaws.  I don't wanna say that two bust QBs taken by the same long-gone GM is "bad luck," but it doesn't reflect some sort of institutional factor that should be considered when evaluating the odds of our next QB pick working out.

Williams is by far the best QB prospect the Bears have ever considered and is more likely than not to be the best QB the Bears have ever had (in part because that is an *extremely* low bar).    He has room to be disappointing and still be a decent starting QB In the NFL.  I'd place his 25th percentile projection as someone like Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield, and his 75th percentile projection is literally Mahomes 2.0.



 

Thats an incredibly generous 75th percentile projection.  Might be a tad generous on the 25th, but that may depend on how you view Murray.

 

His 75th should prob be more like a more turnover prone Rodgers.  Mahomes 2.0 is like 98th percentile outcome imo.

[jersey cubs fan]

21 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I think it's as simple as this: if QB development was more about environment and less about skills innate to the player, we'd have more QBs thriving on their second teams instead of it being fairly rare.

I think the Bears QB woes kinda of mirror the Cubs' championship drought: A long period of incompetence followed by a recent period with a different explanation.

The Cubs were run like a poverty franchise until the 1980s, then they had some bad luck in the playoff coinflips until 2016.

The Bears criminally undervalued the QB position because of the "Bear football" identity of running the football and defense.  We started actually investing in the position with Cutler, who did reasonably well for us, then we've mad two draft picks who busted:  A top prospect from a *really* crappy draft class and a 4th QB taken that was dropping down draft boards rapidly due to some glaring flaws.  I don't wanna say that two bust QBs taken by the same long-gone GM is "bad luck," but it doesn't reflect some sort of institutional factor that should be considered when evaluating the odds of our next QB pick working out.

Williams is by far the best QB prospect the Bears have ever considered and is more likely than not to be the best QB the Bears have ever had (in part because that is an *extremely* low bar).    He has room to be disappointing and still be a decent starting QB In the NFL.  I'd place his 25th percentile projection as someone like Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield, and his 75th percentile projection is literally Mahomes 2.0.



 

It’s hardly rare for QBs to thrive on their second team. Even if you want to discount the Drew Brees situation, guys like Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield have thrived in second (or third) acts. 
 

teams prefer to use their own guy, and once you get the stink of being on a bad team it can be tough to get that off you. But development is not linear and is absolutely affected by surroundings. Most guys just aren’t great QBs on their own volition. 

Edited March 20, 2024 by jersey cubs fan

[jersey cubs fan]

Payton Manning was going to be Payton Manning no matter where he went. Joe Montana and Tom Brady were both incredibly fortunate to be in the situations they were in. 
 

Kurt Warner made the hall of fame as one of the most right place and the right time stories that’s ever existed in sports 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

5 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

It’s hardly rare for QBs to thrive on their second team. Even if you want to discount the Drew Brees situation, guys like Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield have thrived in second (or third) acts. 
 

teams prefer to use their own guy, and once you get the stink of being on a bad team it can be tough to get that off you. But development is not linear and is absolutely affected by surroundings. Most guys just aren’t great QBs on their own volition. 

Three of the five guys you listed were also good on their first team.

[minnesotacubsfan]

26 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Nah, I don't believe in that voodoo, cursed, jersey-scouting BS.  Nor do most of the people who say it, allistics just have this weird obsession with saying things they know aren't true.  


 

I'm referring to the doom and gloom loving hairy, not this new fangled we-can-have-a-world-class-qb hairy

 

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

6 minutes ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

I'm referring to the doom and gloom loving hairy, not this new fangled we-can-have-a-world-class-qb hairy

 

 

I wrote and deleted three different drafts going into exhaustively autistic detail on the psychology of sports beliefs.  You're all welcome.

[Brian707]

40 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

  I'd place his 25th percentile projection as someone like Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield, and his 75th percentile projection is literally Mahomes 2.0.



 

Would 50th percentile be Joe Burrow?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

25 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Thats an incredibly generous 75th percentile projection.  Might be a tad generous on the 25th, but that may depend on how you view Murray.

 

His 75th should prob be more like a more turnover prone Rodgers.  Mahomes 2.0 is like 98th percentile outcome imo.

Guess I'm just an optimist.

I know there's some concern about fumbles, but Williams had 1.9% INTs in college.  Identical to Rodgers and slightly better than Mahomes.

Edited March 20, 2024 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just now, Brian707 said:

Would 50th percentile be Joe Burrow?

Seems reasonable.

[NorthsideAvenger]

So apparently, Keenan Allen is/was at the USC pro day. 

[UMFan83]

26 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

A top prospect from a *really* crappy draft class

Trubisky?  Drafted the same year as Mahomes and Watson?  Or am I forgetting another QB draft pick by the Bears?