Is Justin Fields elite? Bears @ Browns Sunday at noon

[jersey cubs fan]

Fields returns to Ohio as the Bears visit Cleveland and Joe Flacco on Sunday at noon. 
Cleveland is 6-1 at home and 8-5 overall but only +17 on the season with 3 huge blowout wins and a whole bunch of 1-3 point wins. And they also got spanked by the Broncos, Rams and Ravens while splitting the season series with the mediocre Steelers. This is a good team, but nothing special. The defense is stout, leading the league in yards/game by 20 (and the Bears by 50). The bears don’t gain a whole lot of yards either, but they are basically even with Cleveland’s offense. 
 

the difference in this game should be the Bears defense. A mediocre effort has been turned around, the additions by Poles have begun to payoff and might actually save Eberflus’s job.
 

They can’t  finish over .500 without running the table, and a win in this game doubles up last seasons win total. 
 

As for the question, relax, it’s a meme. Ask your kids about it. No, he’s not elite. He hasn’t even hit 2,000 yards passing yet this season. (He’s thrown for half as many as Stroud) and sits more than a thousand yards below Derek Carr, Jordan Love, Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. He is a special talent you can win with in the short term and better than a bunch of garbage guys currently playing in the league of attrition. 
 

Anyway, this is a winnable game if Fields wants to remain an NFL starting Qb. The bears are 3 point dogs, and probably would be 8+ if they hadn’t turned a corner following the Chargers debacle. People realize this team is dangerous and capable. But the Lions are the only truly good team they’ve beaten under Eberflus, depending on how you feel about a Trey Lance led 49ers team in a monsoon. 
The Lions game is being called a “signature win”, but a victory in Cleveland might throw a whole bunch of analysis out the window. 

[BigSlick]

Browns just lost their starting right tackle for the rest of the season. Can Joe Flacco keep the magic going from here on out? 

This will be a fascinating game. The Browns game in 2021, for better or worse, was where the Fields starting era began - and it was a calamity. The coaching staff hung him out to dry. Will this be better? 

I'm expecting a very 2005 Bears-esque game. Low scoring, lots of ugly offense, and a 3 point difference. 

[Brian707]

Bears win this one 8-4

[UMFan83]

I still have scar tissue from the last time Fields started a regular season game in Cleveland 

[CubinNY]

So is Fields playing his way into a new contract? I didn’t watch so I’m not asking a loaded question. 

[jersey cubs fan]

7 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

So is Fields playing his way into a new contract? I didn’t watch so I’m not asking a loaded question. 

No. He’s maybe playing his way to being traded for something more than a 4th rounder, and having his 5th year option picked up. But he hasn’t done anything the merit contract talks. 
 

unless he wants third tier starter money

[Tryptamine]

I don't think Fields is by any means lighting the world on fire, but over his last 6 games this is what we're looking at

QB Rating

Lions 88.3

Vikings 87.3

Lions 105.2

Vikings 36.7

Commanders 125.3

Broncos 132.7

Over that time he is 10TD/2INT

 

He's had 1 terrible game, 2 adequate games, 1 good game and 2 great games.  It's not good enough to no question want him back, but it's also not bad enough to want him gone regardless. It's solid performance that likely puts him in the upper half of NFL QBs.

 

[WrigleyField 22]

3 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

I still have scar tissue from the last time Fields started a regular season game in Cleveland 

Either way this one has some serious poetic meaning potential.

[WrigleyField 22]

11 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I don't think Fields is by any means lighting the world on fire, but over his last 6 games this is what we're looking at

QB Rating

Lions 88.3

Vikings 87.3

Lions 105.2

Vikings 36.7

Commanders 125.3

Broncos 132.7

Over that time he is 10TD/2INT

 

He's had 1 terrible game, 2 adequate games, 1 good game and 2 great games.  It's not good enough to no question want him back, but it's also not bad enough to want him gone regardless. It's solid performance that likely puts him in the upper half of NFL QBs.

 

I kind of hate game by game passer rating evals like that.  It's got enough issues as a rating, I'd rather just see it stacked up cumulatively (and then evaluate the parts it's missing too)

 

But also, you can't evaluate Fields and ignore the early season struggles.  Every game of this year was important to evaluating his future.

[Tryptamine]

24 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

I kind of hate game by game passer rating evals like that.  It's got enough issues as a rating, I'd rather just see it stacked up cumulatively (and then evaluate the parts it's missing too)

 

But also, you can't evaluate Fields and ignore the early season struggles.  Every game of this year was important to evaluating his future.

You don't completely ignore it, but more recent games should hold more weight especially if it's a continuing trend. With that said, if he even goes out and puts up an a decent game against Clevand, I'm going to be super impressed. I'm expecting a pretty big disaster.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'll continue to insist that Fields is great at hiding his flaws in ways that don't show up in passer rating and box score stats.  He's like the old 1970s sluggers that had 80 RBIs with a .280 OBP.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

52 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

So is Fields playing his way into a new contract? I didn’t watch so I’m not asking a loaded question. 

I would say that's narrowly within the range of dumb the Bears are capable of, so possibly.

[UMFan83]

5 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

I kind of hate game by game passer rating evals like that.  It's got enough issues as a rating, I'd rather just see it stacked up cumulatively (and then evaluate the parts it's missing too)

 

But also, you can't evaluate Fields and ignore the early season struggles.  Every game of this year was important to evaluating his future.

The passer rating evaluation also ignores his impact (good and bad) in the running game.  However when evaluating long term, the rushing impact is probably lessened because  a) at some point, maybe 5 years from now or so, its going to be less of a weapon and b) his running game has led to injuries that have caused him to miss time in all 3 seasons.  

[minnesotacubsfan]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

…. his running game has led to injuries that have caused him to miss time in all 3 seasons.  

He was hurt this year against the Vikings on a sack, but was that a designed run play? I didn’t see it and can’t find video of it right now

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 minute ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

He was hurt this year against the Vikings on a sack, but was that a designed run play? I didn’t see it and can’t find video of it right now

It was a pass play and it was entirely his fault.  You can find it at 6:55 here 

 

Vikings showed blitz but dropped into max protect and only rushed 3.  Fields got confused and stood in the pocket forever before the pressure finally got to him and he ran a bit before eating the sack a full 7 seconds after the snap.

 

[WrigleyField 22]

7 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I'll continue to insist that Fields is great at hiding his flaws in ways that don't show up in passer rating and box score stats.  He's like the old 1970s sluggers that had 80 RBIs with a .280 OBP.

You say this like it's some obscure take.  Sacks and fumbles are two well documented issues with passer rating that are well documented as two of Fields biggest issues too.

 

Issue with eliminating bad samples aside, there's other advanced metrics that show his run over that time has been a pretty solid one.  

 

Your takes on him remain laughably over the top IMO.  

[minnesotacubsfan]

3 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

It was a pass play and it was entirely his fault.  You can find it at 6:55 here 

 

 

Vikings showed blitz but dropped into max protect and only rushed 3.  Fields got confused and stood in the pocket forever before the pressure finally got to him and he ran a bit before eating the sack a full 7 seconds after the snap.

 

Right, so the whole “he runs the ball = he will get injured” take isn’t really true

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 minute ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

You say this like it's some obscure take.  Sacks and fumbles are two well documented issues with passer rating that are well documented as two of Fields biggest issues too.

 

Issue with eliminating bad samples aside, there's other advanced metrics that show his run over that time has been a pretty solid one.  

 

Your takes on him remain laughably over the top IMO.  

If it's such a well-agreed on take, I don't have to see any more posts about his passer rating, right?

He's 21st in any/a and 27th in success rate

[WrigleyField 22]

4 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

If it's such a well-agreed on take, I don't have to see any more posts about his passer rating, right?

He's 21st in any/a and 27th in success rate

Top 10 in Epa - I think 9th, I think.  Plus top 10 in some other EPA+derivative type stats (if we do the bad eliminate the bad sample thing)

[UMFan83]

9 minutes ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

Right, so the whole “he runs the ball = he will get injured” take isn’t really true

The point is that with the frequency that he runs and takes hits compared to other QBs is likely to lead to more injuries.  We've already seen him miss time for a variety of reasons over his career, and play at less than 100% in several other games.  The fact that it was on a sack where he held the ball for too long is not really proving that his style of play won't produce injuries imo.  It's a factor I believe you have to consider when evaluating his long term fit.  Are you getting Fields for 17 games a year or 12 games a year?  Do you have to burn cap space on a good backup QB to ensure a Fields multi-game injury doesn't tank the season?

Edited December 11, 2023 by UMFan83

[jersey cubs fan]

9 minutes ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

Right, so the whole “he runs the ball = he will get injured” take isn’t really true

No, that’s just a truism. If he keeps up the running he’ll wear out his career early. It’s a nice weapon to bail you out, but unsustainable. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't think it's actually going to happen, but every time they win we get to play "imagine if they ran the table to 9-8" for another week, which is more fun than rooting for losses 

[raw]

This is an interesting game. And it's been interesting on paper since the schedule came out. The Browns defense is good. Really good. Top pass D in the league. They aren't the best at run D, rushing the passer or turning the ball over, but they are top 10 in all of those. This is a big game for me personally for Justin Fields. Not that I have any say so, but this is a team that probably isn't going to allow him to do the things he wants to do.

They aren't going to let him get comfortable in the pocket. They probably aren't going to let the Bears lean too heavily on the run. They probably aren't going to let him run around and make plays with his legs (face Lamar 2x/year and have done decently stopping him from running the last 3 years against him). He's going to have to make plays from the pocket. He's going to have to be quick and decision. And he absolutely cannot make mistakes against a team that is capable of forcing them.

This was always a huge measuring stick game to me. If Fields was showing he was definitely the guy, this would be a good game to see how real that was. If Fields was a disaster, assuming he made it as the starter to this point, this would be a good game to put the nail in his coffin. But since Fields is toeing that gray area, this is a good game to see if he really has it in him to be the QB the Bears need him to be.

The Browns don't scare you on offense. Flacco will come down to Earth, Bears seem like they are able to make that happen as well. So, it's going to come down to Justin being able to put enough points on the board to win what has the potential of being a very ugly slugfest.

[WrigleyField 22]

13 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I don't think it's actually going to happen, but every time they win we get to play "imagine if they ran the table to 9-8" for another week, which is more fun than rooting for losses 

Yes a positive reversal from last year's tank track

[WrigleyField 22]

Only 2 epic collapses from being a fluky 7-6 team due for a reversion to the mean in 2024!